department of political and social sciences 1 ascn annual conference political transformation and...

Department of Political and Social Sciences

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ASCN Annual Conference“Political Transformation and Social Change in the South Caucasus:

The Case of Georgia”

Political economy of emigration intentions in the countries of South Caucasus

Alexi Gugushvili PhD Researcher

24-25 June, 2011Bazaleti, Georgia


Is emigration important?

•Migration is damaging the country •Demographic concerns, shrinking population•Economic growth, socioeconomic development•Fiscal balance, social policies, intergenerational concerns•Emigration as the measurement of life quality •This paper is concerned with covariates, not with the scope and direction of emigration 2


Migration determinants research framework

I. Neoclassical Economics: Difference in supply and demand for labour – Human capital theory

II. ‘The New Economics’ of Migration: Minimisation of risk stemming from failures of labour and other markets Relative conditions matter – sociology of reference groups Risk insurance matter – mainly public, but also private insurance Migration as a coping strategy: Promotive strategy ; preventive

strategy; protective strategy

III. Post-New Economics of Migration: Growing movement of people within developing and developed nations: desired communities, preferred life-styles, attached ideologies, etc.

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Covariates of emigration in the South Caucasus: What do we know?

•Gender •Unemployment•Poverty •International social network

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But doesn’t political environment matter?

Are economic factors only determinants of emigration?Undisputable links between turmoil and emigrationDoes perception of political environment associate with

emigration?Some evidence: In Israel support for government explains emigration

intentions (Hartman and Hartman, 1995); In Albania intentions to emigrate correlate with support for market reforms (Sanfey, 2001); In Romania market and democracy values are important for emigration intentions

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Why political vs. economic conditions should matter differently?

Armenia: Stable economic development, less changing political freedoms (2008 presidential elections, good relations with Russia)

Azerbaijan: Substantial economic development, stagnant political regime (oil-revenues, consolidating authoritarianism)

Georgia: Some political gains, stagnant socioeconomic indicators (2003 revolution, public sector reforms, Russian crisis)

It seems reasonable to assume that political economy must have association with emigration

•

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Some trends in socioeconomic developments

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Fig.1: GDP per capita (USD) Tab.1: Poverty and inequality

Source: WDI (2010)

Arm Aze Geo

Gini index (2008) 31 34 41

Income share held by highest 20% (2008)

40 42 47

Income share held by lowest 20% (2008)

9 8 5

Poverty headcount ratio at $2 a day

12 8 33

Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day

1 1 15


Some trends in political development

Fig. 3: Political Rights Score Fig. 4: Civil Liberties Score

Source: Freedom House (2010)8


Hypothesis

In more authoritative political environment, political attitudes are more important for emigration than economic conditions, while in more troubled economic environment

economic conditions are more decisive for emigration than political attitudes

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Micro-level survey data on migration intentions

Migration intentions – indirect analysis of migration behaviourGrowing interest in studies based on intentions data because of the difficulties in finding adequate data on actual migration

Theory of reasoned action: some evidence on correlation between intentions and behaviour from developed and developing nations

Shortcomings of migration intentions analysis: The responses can partly reflect personal frustration, not actual ability of

emigrationFuture behaviour may be affected by intervening shocks Excludes those who already emigrated

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Database – Caucasus Barometer

Caucasus Research Resource Centers’ nationwide cross-sectional survey data in the countries of South Caucasus

Pooling 2009 and 2010 datasets allows sufficient number of cases for a comprehensive analysis of emigration intentions

Conclusions made are only associative nature, no causality can be insisted

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Dependent variables

Y1: “If you had a chance, would you leave country for a certain period of time to live somewhere else?” Yes=1, No=0

Armenia – 55.7%Azerbaijan – 49.5% Georgia – 40.5%

Y2: “If you had a chance, would you leave country forever to live somewhere else?” Yes=1, No=0

Armenia – 23.9% Azerbaijan – 16.5%

Georgia – 8.5% 12


Independent variables

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Economic variables Political variables

Household items deprivation (min=0, max=6)Consumption deprivation (min=0, max=7)Household has debtPoverty is the main concern

Country on right directionElections are fairGovernment treats people fairlyTrust in health system (completely disagree=1 and completely agree=4)

Controls variables (usual suspects): Demographic variables, human and social capital, employment type, etc


Methodology

Binomial probit regressions through nested models

Marginal effects with robust standard errors

Post-estimation predicted probabilities

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Table 1: Marginal effects for temporary emigration intentions

Country-level regressionsArmenia Azerbaijan Georgia

Temporaryemigration

Permanent emigration

Temporaryemigration


Temporaryemigration


Gender and age Male .02 .03* .11*** .07*** .04** .02**

Born: After 1985 (ref. 1946) .42*** .25*** .29*** .23*** .27*** .05**Born: 1976–1985 .34*** .24*** .33*** .22*** .23*** .07***Born: 1966–1975 .30*** .23*** .26*** .17*** .30*** .05**Born: 1956–1965 .22*** .16*** .20*** .13*** .17*** .05**Born: 1946–1955 .14*** .15*** .14*** .07** .10*** .03*

Education and health Sec. educat. (ref. prim. edu.)

.00 –.02 .07** .01 .08** .03

Higher education –.01 –.07** .08** .03 .07** –.02Good health (ref. bad health)

–.01 –.06** .02 –.03 .07*** .02

Excellent health –.05* –.03 .06** –.03* .11 *** .00Domestic social capital

Married (ref. single) –.05 –.01 –.05 –.04** –.04* –.00Social network index –.02*** –.02*** –.02*** –.01*** .00 –.01**Belonging to minority .18** .13** –.06* –.04* .04 .06***

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Table 1: Marginal effects for temporary emigration intentions (continued)

Country-level regressionsArmenia Azerbaijan Georgia

Temporaryemigration


Temporaryemigration


Temporaryemigration


International social capitalFamily member abroad .03* –.01 .08*** .02 .03* .00Friend abroad .05** .06*** .09*** .07*** .03 .01Experience of being abroad .06** .04** .09*** .04** .07** .05***Receiving remittances .06** .02 –.01 .01 .05* .04***Proficiency in English .01 .03** .02 .01 .02* .02**Proficiency in Russian .00 .00 .02** .02** .02** –.00

Labour status (ref. employed)Unemployed .09*** .07*** .07*** .06*** .13*** .03**Out of labour market –.01 .01 .01 .03 .01 .04**Student .02 .00 .11 .02 .24*** .08***Homemaker .04 .02 –.07** –.04* .02 .05***Retired –.02 –.02 –.07* .00 –.07** –.03

Number of observations 3343 3317 3162 3130 3063 3063Pseudo R2 .1203 .0820 .1396 .1468 .1768 .1881

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Table 2: Explaining variation in dependent variables (Pseudo R-squared)

Country-level regressions

Armenia Azerbaijan GeorgiaTemporaryemigration


Temporaryemigration


Temporaryemigration


Settlement and year .0234 .0087 .0176 .0340 .0153 .0602

Gender and age .0713 .0491 .0801 .0647 .1186 .0433

Education and health .0082 .0037 .0007 .0064 .0123 .0107

Domestic social capital .0096 .0074 .0057 .0134 .0051 .0327

International social capital .0208 .0094 .0101 .0202 .0118 .0296

Labour status .0063 .0037 .0061 .0081 .0137 .0116

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Table 3: Big part of differences in intentions can be explained by distr. of frequencies in key variables

Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia

Cohort born: After 1985 9.7 12.2

8.9

Cohort born: 1976–1985 17.8 20.9 14.6Cohort born: 1966–1975 16.6 22.2 16.5Cohort born: 1956–1965 22.6 22.8 18.5Cohort born: 1946–1955 13.4 11.2 17.8Born before 1946 20.0 10.7 23.6

Family member abroad 61.0 41.6 38.4Friend abroad 36.6 20.1 24.2Experience of being abroad 25.8 16.9 14.6Receiving remittances 18.0 5.7 11.1

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Table 4: Marginal effects for temporary emigration intentions – political attitudes vs. economics

Armenia Azerbaijan GeorgiaTemporaryemigration


Temporaryemigration


Temporaryemigration


Block 1: Economic conditions Household Items deprivation –.03 .02 –.01 .01 .05* –.01Household Items deprivation2 .00 –.00 –.00 –.00 –.01* .00Consumption deprivation .00 .01 .01 –.03** .04* .01Consumption deprivation2 .00 .00 .00 .01*** –.01* –.00Household has debt .08*** .04* .06** .02 .08*** –.00Poverty is the main concern .03 .01 .04 .02 .12** –.02

Block 2: Changing conditions Incomes are up in last 2 years .00 .05 .03 –.05 –.09* –.03Household member lost job last year .09*** .01 .05 .03 .02 –.01In bottom 3 rungs in 5 years .06** .05* –.05 .03 –.03 .02

Block 3: Political attitudes Country on right direction –.01 –.02** –.03** –.04*** –.02 .01

Elections are fair .01 –.06*** –.08*** –.03** –.04 –.05***Fair treatment –.03** –.01 –.02 –.00 .01 –.02**Trust in health system –.02* –.02** –.02 –.02* –.02 .00 19


Table 5: Political attitudes vs. economics: Comparison of significance

Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia

Temporaryemigration


Temporaryemigration


Temporaryemigration


Block 1: Economic conditions

Wald Chi2 41.50 22.31 23.28 62.35 31.25 8.08

Pr > F-Statistics .0000 .0044 .0030 .0000 .0001 .4258Block 2: Changing conditions

Wald Chi2 18.03 5.92 6.83 14.46 3.95 2.53

Pr>F-Statistics .0012 .2051 .1453 .0060 .4124 .6391

Block 3: Political trust

Wald Chi2 15.66 49.09 46.37 42.81 7.50 21.52

Pr>F-Statistics .0079 .0000 .0000 .0000 .1861 .0006

Block 4: Types of employment

Wald Chi2 10.62 4.97 8.54 2.03 3.35 4.38

Pr>F-Statistics .1560 .6637 .2872 .9579 .8512 .625620


Conclusions and discussion

Emigration intentions across South Caucasus correlate with economic conditions as well as with political attitudes

In Georgia mainly economic factors explain variation in intentions, in Azerbaijan political attitudes are decisive

Equality of opportunities and building democratic institutions could correlate with lower emigration intentions and possibly with lower emigration trends

Higher emigration intentions among the young generations (cohort vs. age) might also mean that consequently these societies will become more open, liberal and democratic

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Thank you!

[email protected]

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Hypothesis 2

Stratification on the labour market becomes increasingly important in South Caucasian countries, meaning that security and other characteristics of job are important for emigrationH3: Emigration correlates not only with employment or unemployment, but also can be explained by the quality of jobs itself defined by, among other factors, fair compensation and general satisfaction with work.

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Figures1 & 2: Attitudes toward job and predicted probability of emigration intention

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Temporary emigration Permanent emigration


Figures 3 & 4: Attitudes toward job and predicted probability of emigration intention

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Figures 5 & 6: Attitudes toward job and predicted probability of emigration intention

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department of political and social sciences 1 ascn annual conference political transformation and...

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