Climate Change Adaptation Sector Strategy for Rural Human Settlements

Department of Rural Development and Land Affairs

June 2013

Draft Climate Change Adaptation Sector Plan for Rural Settlement

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Contents1.Background141.1.Policy context and regulatory framework141.2.Rural Human Settlements161.3.South Africa’s Rural People172.Climate Change Risks and Vulnerabilities192.1.Conceptual Framework192.1.1.Climate Science and Uncertainty202.2.Environmental risk212.2.1.Hazard Exposure212.2.2.Sensitivity242.2.3.Climate disasters252.3.Social vulnerability and adaptive capacity272.3.1.Infrastructure and Services272.3.2.Health292.3.3.Economic vulnerability302.3.4.Mapping social vulnerability323.The need for adaptation333.1.The links between adaptation and development343.2.Adaptation responses364.Strategic Framework414.1.Guiding principles414.1.1.Climate change related vulnerability must be understood in the local context414.1.2.Adaptation planning must be shaped by local participation414.1.3.Adaptation must build on local capabilities424.1.4.Acknowledging climate justice424.1.5.Evidence based planning434.2.Goals and objectives435.Implementation Plan505.1.Instruments505.1.1.Local adaption planning505.1.2.Sustainable rural livelihoods515.1.3.Sustainable land management515.1.4.Sustainable eco-system services525.1.5.Climate resilient infrastructure and services535.1.6.Disaster Risk Management535.1.7.Research to support rural resilience545.2.Institutional Arrangements545.3.Financing Adaptation565.4.Priority programmes and projects575.4.1.Integration of climate change responses into the CRDP57Local adaptation planning58Sustainable livelihoods and protection of eco-system services58Delivery of climate resilient services and infrastructure595.4.2.Climate resilient land use management and spatial planning595.4.3.Disaster risk management and planning605.4.4.Research programme to support climate resilient rural human settlements615.5.Monitoring and Evaluation Framework615.5.1.Guidelines for the monitoring and evaluation of projects706.References72

Definitions of Key Terms

Adaptationinvolves adjustments to enhance the viability of rural development and to reduce its vulnerability to climate, including its current variability and extreme events as well as longer term climate change (Smit 2005)

Adaptive Capacity refers to the financial, physical, cultural and political ability of societies to make the required changes needed to survive the adverse effects of climate change. Adaptive capacity is defined by how people experience and survive the exposure to hazards.

Climate refers to the average weather over time for a specific region (FAO 2007).

Climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or anthropogenic forces (FAO 2007).

Climate-resilient society is one that has taken measures to adapt and respond to climate change (UNDP 2010).

Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state of the given climate for a specific region over time (FAO 2007).

Climate Change Vulnerability is a result of a combination between the environmental risks that society’s face and their abilities to cope with those risks.

Rural Human Settlements are places in which people live and work that lie outside of the urban edge (DRDLR 2013).

Weather is the current atmospheric condition in a specific area. The weather includes variables such as temperature, rainfall and wind. Weather happens currently or in the very near future (FAO 2007).

List of Abbreviations

ACCCA Advancing Capacity to Support Climate Change Adaptation

ANCAfrican National Congress

ARCAgricultural Research Council

CBO Community Based Organization

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

CRDP Comprehensive Rural Development Programme

CSAGClimate Systems Analysis Group

CSDI Communication for Sustainable Development Initiative

CSIRCentre for Scientific and Industrial Research

DAFFDepartment of Agriculture and Forestry

DEADepartment of Environmental Affairs

DRDLR Department of Rural Development and Land Reform

DRMDisaster Risk Management

DRRDisaster Risk Reduction

DSTDepartment of Science and Technology

DWA Department of Water Affairs

EWSEarly Warning Systems

FAOFood and Agriculture Organization

GAP Geo Spatial Analysis Platform

GCMGlobal Circulation model

GEARGrowth, Employment and Redistribution

GHGGreen House Gas

IPCCInternational Panel on Climate Change

ISRDSIntegrated Sustainable Rural Development Strategy

NARYSECNational Rural Youth Service Corp

NCCRNational Climate Change Response

NDPNational Development Plan

NDMCNational Disaster Risk Management Centre

NRFNational research Foundation

NGONon-Governmental Organization

NPCNational Planning commission

NTNational Treasury

RDP Reconstruction and Development Plan

REIDRural Infrastructure Enterprise Development

RIDRural Infrastructure Development

SADCSouthern African Development Community

SARVASouth African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas

SANBISouth African National Biodiversity Institute

SAWS South African Weather Services

SLFSustainable Livelihoods Framework

UCTUniversity of Cape Town

UNUnited Nations

UNESCAPUnited Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

UNFCCCUnited Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change

UNISDRUnited Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

WRCWater Research Commission

List of tables and figures

Figure 1: Employment in agriculture, first quarter 2001 - 201318

Figure 2: Conceptual Model for Climate Change Vulnerability19

Table 1: Potential impacts of projected temperature increases21

Table 2: Potential impacts of projected changes in precipitation patterns22

Table 3: Potential impacts of projected changes in oceanic systems24

Figure 3: Composite mapping of social vulnerability indicators32

Table 4: Adaptation Responses36

Figure 4: CRDP Programme Phases51

Figure 5: Institutional Arrangements55

Figure 6: Phases for incorporating adaptation into CRDP sites58

Table 5: Logical Framework for Adaptation Plan62

Figure 7: Steps in the monitoring and evaluation process70

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Climate Change Adaptation Sector Plan for Rural Human Settlements has been prepared by DRDLR in fulfilment of its mandate to coordinate delivery of Outcome 7: Vibrant, equitable and sustainable rural communities and food security for all. Further, the development of sector based climate change adaptation plans by national departments is mandated by the National Climate Change Response White Paper (NCCR), adopted by Cabinet in 2011.This adaptation plan is guided by the National Development Plan (NDP), which encapsulates the overarching vision of the country until 2030 and aims to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030. The NDP recognizes that government attempts to reduce rural poverty since 1994 have shown that there is no simple answer to this challenge.

Climate Change is associated with increased variability in weather and a heightened risk of extreme weather events that may result in climate-related disasters, which include:

Droughts,which caused damage estimated at R1 150 million between 2000 and 2009.

Floods and storms, which caused damage estimated at R4 700 million, and have resulted in 140 deaths between 2000 and 2009.

Veld fires caused damage estimated at R1,750 million, and 34 deaths during the 2000 – 2009 period.

The table below summarises the key impacts of the changes to temperature, rainfall and oceanic systems that result from climate change:

Bio-physical changes in climate

Potential Impacts

Increased number of warm and very hot days and increased maximum daily temperatures

Increased evaporation impacting on the availability of surface water

Soil degradation due to increased acidity, nutrient depletion, declining microbiological diversity, lower water retention and increased runoff.

Positive or negative impacts on crops and growing season length depending on local topography, precipitation and crop types. Some crops, particularly deciduous fruits, require a chill factor during winter to be productive.

Increased incidence of heat waves and associated risks for human and livestock health from heat stress, particularly for the very old and young, and those already suffering from illness.

Increase in the concentration and range of pests and pathogens that comprise human and livestock disease vectors, such as malaria and ticks.

Increased risk of wild fires and associated damage to crops, property and infrastructure.

Increased number of consecutive dry days

Decreases in runoff and stream flow and an increased risk of drought, affecting crop production, food security and rural livelihoods.

Reduced stream flow is a particular threat for rural communities that are directly dependant on surface water resources.

Loss of soil moisture affecting crops and increasing the risk of soil erosion due to wind.

Increased risk of veldfires and resultant damage to property, grazing, and crops.

Increase in number of consecutive wet days and/or increase in extreme precipitation events

Increased risk of floods, with consequent risks of damage to crops, property and loss of life.

Water logging of soil affecting crops.

Increased risk from water borne diseases such as cholera.

Damage to bulk water infrastructure, irrigation systems and water reticulation.

Damage to property and crops from winds associated with violent storms.

Extreme precipitation events are often preceded by lightening, which is responsible for a significant number of fatalities in rural areas every year

Changes in the variability and timing of precipitation

Farmers rely on predictable rains for timing the planting of crops, and subsistence farmers practicing rain-fed agriculture are particularly at risk.

Increased variability and unpredictable timing of rainfall impacts directly on the management of catchments and bulk water infrastructure, threatening the availability of water.

Sea level rise

Salinisation of water sources provided by coastal aquifers on which some coastal communities depend

Damages to infrastructure and property located in coastal areas with a low elevation, aggravated by storm surges associated with extreme weather.

Oceanic warming

Changes to the distribution and ranges of estuarine and marine species important to livelihoods in rural fishing communities.

Ocean acidification

Impacts on the development and reproduction of estuarine and marine species important to livelihoods in rural fishing communities.

Because of the high levels of poverty and low levels of service delivery and infrastructure experienced by many rural communities, they are particularly vulnerable to such disasters. Drivers of social vulnerability to climate change include:

Inadequate access to basic services such as water, sanitation, electricity, and waste management

Inadequate access to health care facilities

Inadequate access to infrastructure such as housing, roads and communications.

Infants and the old are more physiologically vulnerable to the effects of climate change on human health, and communities with a low number of economically active adults are socio-economically vulnerable.

Households with low income levels are less able to cope with and respond to the environmental stresses and shocks associated with climate change. Similarly, lack of access to land and insecure tenure increases social vulnerability.

The scope of this plan embraces human settlements whichlocated outside of the urban edge, as defined in spatial development plans. This may include

· Urban Fringe: settlements on the periphery of metropolitan areas and towns, which may include informal settlements, low cost housing and high-income low density settlements.

· Dense Rural Settlements: consisting of “betterment settlements” as a legacy of apartheid planning in the former homelands and informal settlements.

· Rural villages: these can be unplanned traditional settlements, or planned settlements that service farms.

· Dispersed and scattered settlements: these consist of unplanned traditional homesteads and settlements in commercial farming areas.

Within each of these typologies, and even within particular rural communities, there is a large degree of diversity in settlement patterns, socio-economic status, and access to services of households.South Africa has experienced a long-term and ongoing trend of urbanisation. Currently almost 39 percent of the population resides in the rural areas, and on current trends this will decrease to 20 percent by the year 2050. For many in the rural areas, particularly the densely populated former homelands, life is beset with struggles around access to basic necessities such as potable water, sanitation, fuel for cooking and high levels of poverty and food insecurity. One in two rural households is dependent on social grants, compared with one in five houses in urban centres.

The Climate Change Adaptation Sector Plan for Rural Human Settlements is founded on the following guiding principles, which will be used to inform adaptation responses in the sector:

Climate change related vulnerability must be understood in the local context – climate change risks and vulnerabilities are location specific.

Adaptation planning must be shaped by local participation – community driven adaptation responses must place control and resources in the hands of local communities and view rural people as partners and assets in development.

Adaptation must build on local capabilities – responses should leverage the resources, efforts and capabilities of local areas.

Acknowledging climate justice – adaptation responses must seek to allocate resources in the context of disproportionate needs and historical inequalities, with the rural poor most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, despite have contributed least to the causes.

Evidence based planning – climate change responses should be based on scientific evidence and should initially focus on delivering outcomes that are known to be intrinsically beneficial to rural communities.

The overarching goal of the Climate Change Adaptation Sector Plan for Rural Human Settlements is to create sustainable livelihoods that are resilient to the shocks and stresses caused by climate change and do not adversely affect the environment for present and future generations. To achieve this, the adaptation plan has been structured around the following strategic objectives:

1. Support the development of community and local climate adaptation plans – climate change vulnerability is best understood in terms of the particular environmental risks and socio-economic conditions pertaining to particular rural human settlements, and adaptation responses need to be tailored to local needs and build on local capabilities.

2. Build local adaptive capacity through supporting sustainable livelihoods – diversifying income sources for poor rural households, many of whom depend on government grants and subsistence agriculture for survival, is necessary to reduce their risks and combat rural poverty.

3. Support sustainable land management that promotes climate resilience– land use management and land reform processes need to not only protect and enhance productivity and transformation in the agricultural sector, but also to build resilience to the environmental impacts of climate change and protect natural assets by reducing land degradation and soil erosion.

4. Protect ecosystem services to rural communities– ecosystems provide critical services to rural communities such as clean water, air, biodiversity and productive soils. Protecting ecosystems not only builds the resilience of rural communities to climate change, but is also essential to the sustainability of urban centres.

5. Promote access to climate resilient services and infrastructure – lack of access or inadequate access to basic services and infrastructure increases the exposure and vulnerability of rural communities to the impacts of climate change.

6. Strengthen disaster preparedness and response – Rural human settlements are in many cases particularly vulnerable to climate related disasters as a consequence of the increased reliance of many rural households on natural resources, a high incidence of poverty, as well as issues of access as a result of remoteness and inadequate transport and communications infrastructure.

7. Invest in long term research on more effective ways to supports rural household climate resilience – akey goal of climate research is to reduce the uncertainty associated with climate change and provide timely, relevant information to inform planning processes and develop appropriate adaptation responses.

Designing and implementing climate change adaptation responses will require multi-sectoral coordination and cooperative governance across different government departments and spheres of governance, as well as coordination with non-governmental stakeholders. For this reason, the adaptation leverages a broad range of instruments for implementation, including partnerships with other government departments and agencies. Local adaptation responses can be supported by planning instruments such as IDPs and associated planning instruments for local government. The Spatial Planning and Land Use Management Act, Act No.16 of 2013 gives legal effect to National, Provincial, Regional and Municipal Spatial Development Frameworks,land use schemes and Municipal Planning Tribunals.

Four priority programmes for the implementation of the plan have been identified:

1. Integration of climate change responses into the CRDP – this forms the core of the plan and consists of undertaking adaptation planning process in CRDP sites in partnership with the relevant local municipalities, piloting adaptation responses and strategies at these sites, and building on success to take adaptation response to scale while learning from failures.

2. Climate resilient land use management and spatial planning – this involves developing norms and standards for incorporating climate change risk and vulnerability into spatial development frameworks, land use schemes, and environmental impact assessments.

3. Disaster risk management and planning – this involves partnering with the National Disaster Risk Management Centre to improve early warning systems, develop climate-related disaster response strategies for rural areas, and undertaking local disaster risk and vulnerability assessments to inform local government planning.

4. Research programme to support climate resilient rural human settlements – the key research areas in this programme include climate resilient agriculture relevant to small-scale and subsistence farmers, technology innovation in service delivery to rural human settlements, and an audit of indigenous agricultural knowledge and practices.

The monitoring and evaluation framework for the plan is based on a logical framework for the adaptation plan itself, and monitoring and evaluation of adaptation projects.

Background

This section of the Climate Change Adaption Sector Plan for the Rural Human Settlements (referred to as “the adaptation plan” in this document) sets out the mandate of the Department of Rural Development and Land Reform (DRDLR) in developing the plan, by describing the institutional scope of the plan and the social context in which it is framed.

Policy context and regulatory framework

The DRDLR was established as a result of the ruling party’s Polokwane resolutions in 2009 and replaces the previous Department of Land Affairs (DLA). The mandate of the DLA in relation to reform of apartheid patterns of land ownership is taken up by the DRDLR within the context of an integrated strategy for sustainable agrarian transformation to support socio-economic development of rural areas. The central programme of the DRDLR is the Comprehensive Rural Development Programme (CRDP).

The DRDLR is responsible for coordinating delivery in terms of the presidential outcome 7: Vibrant, equitable and sustainable rural communities and food security for all. The 6 outputs which contribute to this outcome are defined as:

Sustainable agrarian reform with a thriving farming sector

Improved access to affordable and diverse food

Improved services to support livelihoods

Rural job creation and promoting economic livelihoods

Enabling institutional environment for sustainable and inclusive growth

Cross cutting/Institutional Support

The DRDLR coordinates delivery of these outputs through the Implementation Forum chaired by the Minister of Rural Development and Land Reform and on which the provincial MECs for the relevant provincial departments and District Mayors are represented as well as ministers of the core participating departments, which include the Departments of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs, Trade and Industry, Water and Environmental Affairs, Energy, Public Works and Public Enterprise (amongst others).

The technical forum is chaired by the Director General of the DRDLR, and includes the Director Generals of the core participating national departments, Heads of Department of the provincial departments and District Mayors.

The DRDLR and its delivery partners also contribute to the following presidential outcomes that are directly relevant to the climate change adaptation plan:

Outcome 4: strengthening employment, economic growth and equality in line with the job creation model

Outcome 8: Sustainable human settlements and improved quality of household life

Outcome 9: meeting basic needs of communities and promoting appropriate service delivery models in rural areas

Outcome 10: sustainable natural resource management

The outputs of Outcome 10, for which the DRDLR is a core partner, are particularly relevant to the adaptation plan:

Enhanced quality and quantity of water resources;

Reduced greenhouse gas emissions, climate change impacts and improved atmospheric quality;

Sustainable environmental management; and

Protected biodiversity.

The development of sector based climate change adaptation plans by national departments is mandated by the National Climate Change Response White Paper (NCCR), adopted by Cabinet in 2011. Section 5.7 of the NCCR is devoted to rural human settlements and notes the vulnerability of rural communities with high dependence on natural resources to climate change, particularly in relation to agricultural production. The guidelines for adaptation in rural human settlements provided in the NCCR are to:

· Educate subsistence and small-scale farmers on the potential risks of climate change, and support them to develop adaptation strategies with on-farm demonstration and experimentation. Adaptation strategies will include conservation agriculture practices including water harvesting and crop rotation, and will prioritise indigenous knowledge and local adaptive responses.

· Empower local communities, particularly women who are often primary producers, in the process of designing and implementing adaptation strategies.

· Design and implement economic and livelihood diversification programmes in rural areas.

· Within the country’s research and development system, prioritise technologies for climate change adaptation within rural areas, including low water-use irrigation systems, improved roll-out of rainwater harvesting strategies, and drought resistant seed varieties.

· Target adaptation programmes to build resilience among the most vulnerable sections of the rural population and ensure that disaster management architecture includes the provision of safety nets for rural communities most vulnerable to theimpacts of climate change. This includes enhancing their knowledge of sustainable environmental conditions and optimising the ecosystem services that these provide. (NCCR, 2011)

The National Development Plan (NDP) (2012) encapsulates the overarching vision of the country until 2030 and aims to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030. The NDP recognizes that government attempts to reduce rural poverty since 1994 have shown that there is no simple answer to this challenge. Both climate change and rural development present a complex and multi-dimensional set of challenges for the state that require cross cutting sectoral approaches involving horizontal departmental coordination and vertical alignment between national, provincial and local government, traditional authorities, development agencies and civil society.

The NDP puts forward three possible solutions to rural poverty alleviation which are not exclusive:

Enabling the poor to migrate to cities where livelihoods may be more accessible;

Diversifying rural livelihoods;

Retaining and reviving rural agriculture.

Particularly important to the implementation of the adaptation plan in the context of rural communities and land reform is the role of traditional authorities as defined in the Constitution, Act No. 108 of 1996, and the Traditional Leadership and Governance Framework Amendment Act, Act No.41 of 2003 and the Communal Land Rights Act, Act No.11 of 2004. These establish the role of traditional councils in the administration of communal land and are particularly relevant to the former homelands, in which some of the most socially vulnerable rural settlements are located. The Restitution of Land Rights Act, Act No. 22 of 1994 (and subsequent amendments) establish the legal basis for land reform through land restitution, and provide the legislative mandate for the Commission on Restitution of Land Rights.

South African local government consists of district, local and metropolitan municipalities. In general, district municipalities are not directly responsible for service delivery, but instead are responsible for district wide planning, coordination and strategic economic development of the local municipalities which fall within their jurisdiction. The powers and responsibilities of local government institutions are established in the constitution and the Municipal Structures Act of 1998. Of particular importance in relation to the adaptation plan is the Spatial Planning and Land Use Management Bill, introduced to parliament in 2012, which describes the national, provincial and local government framework for spatial planning and land use management.The bill explicitly stipulates that spatial planning and land use management should conform to:

“the principle of spatial resilience, whereby flexibility in spatial plans, policies and land use management systems are accommodated to ensure sustainable livelihoods in communities most likely to suffer the impacts of economic and environmental shocks;”

Rural Human Settlements

The Comprehensive Plan for the Development of Sustainable Human Settlements adopted by Cabinet in 2004 represented a shift in government focus from the delivery of housing to an integrated approach to human settlements. Building on the comprehensive plan, the presidential delivery agreement for Outcome 8 defines sustainable human settlements and improved quality of household life as:

Access to adequate accommodation that is suitable, relevant, appropriately located, affordable and fiscally sustainable.

Access to basic services (water, sanitation, refuse removal and electricity).

Security of tenure irrespective of ownership or rental, formal or informal structures.

Access to social services and economic opportunity within reasonable distance.

The Department of Rural Development and Land Reform (DRDLR) considers areaslying outside of the urban edge, as defined in spatial development plans, to be rural. The 1998 White Paper on Local Government included a typology of human settlements which includes the following settlement types that may fall outside the formal urban edge:

Urban Fringe: referring to settlements outside the urban core, particularly on the periphery of metropolitan areas that often include informal settlements and middle-order low income settlements, as well as high-income low density settlements.

Dense Rural Settlements:consisting of “betterment settlements” as a legacy of apartheid planning in the former homelands and informal settlements.

Rural villages: these can be unplanned traditional settlements, or planned settlements that service farms.

Dispersed and scattered settlements: these consist of unplanned traditional homesteads and settlements in commercial farming areas.

In addition, there are many small towns and villages in which the majority of households fall within the urban edge, but which nevertheless have close links to surrounding rural areas and farms.Within each of these typologies, and even within particular rural communities, there is a large degree of diversity in settlement patterns, socio-economic status, and access to servicesof households.The National Development Plan (NDP) indicates that research is required into understanding the spatial variation of rural areas so that development interventions can adequately address the unique challenges which particular rural areas face.

Access to land and land ownership within rural human settlements is mediated through a continuum of legal and extra-legal tenure arrangements. While most commercial farms are privately owned, and ownership patterns continue to reflect historical patterns of racial inequality, the Land Reform (Labour Tenants) Act, Act No.3 of 1996 provides labour tenants living on farms with a measure of tenure security that is separate from their status as employees. Within informal settlements, which in many cases are located on state land, extra-legal tenure arrangements which by definition provide little formal tenure security to households are often in force.

Particularly in the former homelands, but also in the case of communal land claims, much land is communally owned and land use rights, which may be overlapping, have been allocated through customary practice. The Communal Lands Rights Act, Act No. 11 of 2004, sought to regulate and establish the role of traditional authorities and traditional councils in relation to communal lands, but significant portions of the Act were found to be unconstitutional in a 2010 ruling, and it has not been implemented. In practice, land use rights for rural land in the former homelands and rural land that has been restituted are very often allocated through traditional authorities.

The weakness of rural institutions meant to provide communication channels to government is a challenge for many rural communities. The factors leading to these weakened institutions include contested indigenous institutions, weak democratic structures, local governments that lack capacity, lack of alignment and coordination between government and the non- governmental sector in pursuing development initiatives, corruption in local government and contestation between traditional leadership structures and democratic institutions.

South Africa’s Rural People

The people of South Africa’s rural areas are characterised by considerable diversity between and within rural communities, both in terms of culture and socio-economic status. AlthoughSouth Africa has experienced a long-term and ongoing trend of urbanisation, almost39 per cent of our population currently reside in the rural areas.Based on current trends, thisis expected to decrease to 20 per cent by the year 2050 (National Planning Commission 2013).

The legacy of colonialism and apartheid is deeply etched in patterns of unequal land distribution and wealth in South Africa’s rural communities. This is reflected in the fact that 72 percent of the rural population reside in the former homelands on 22% of the country’s land (Department of Agriculture 2011). Most commercial agriculture happens on the remaining 88 percent of rural land, carried out by a mere 28% of the rural population, which includes farm workers and commercial farmers. The division of ownership and labour in the commercial farming sector continues to reflect the racial and economic inequalities of apartheid.

For many in the rural areas, particularly the densely populated former homelands, life is beset with struggles around access to basic necessities such as potable water, sanitation, fuel for cooking and high levels of poverty and food insecurity. The overwhelming majority of the rural population is poor and reliant on social grants, remittances from the urban areas and subsistence farming. One in two households in rural areas is dependent on social grants, compared with one in five houses in urban centres.

In the densely settled former homelands, agriculture is compromised by degradation and overuse of land (DEA 2011). The increased reliance in rural areas on social grants and wage incomes is both a cause and effect of the disintegration of traditional networks and community structures, with households and wage earners having to move in search of work. Rural households attempt to diversify incomes through participation in both formal and informal markets. However, for many rural households the erratic nature of household income means that subsistence agriculture remains an important source of food security.

The commercial agricultural sector has struggled to adjust to the structural reforms and deregulation that accompanied the democratic transition. This has resulted in declines in agricultural productivity and employment, and general underinvestment in the sector.

Figure 1: Employment in agriculture, first quarter 2001 - 2013

Source: StatsSA - Quarterly Labour Force Survey (1st quarter 2007 – 2013) and Labour Force Survey, (revised figures for March, 2001 – 2008)

Much of the economic growth that does take place in rural areas is happening along major transport lines, in major tourism hubs and along the national borders and is contributing to a densification and urbanisation of affected rural communities that informs the followingprojections for the rural population of South Africa:

In the future the size of the South African rural population will reduce and then stabilize.

Migration to urban areas and within the rural area itself will increase in the near future resulting in a densification of rural informal settlements.

Rural households which are the most poverty stricken are likely to be those that migrate towards urban centres (NPC 2013).

Given the potential of agriculture to alleviate household poverty, government is attempting to raise the profile of agriculture in rural communities. The current and future impacts of climate change on food production and food security, both in the local and international context, are significant. Since 2003 the global long term trend of lower food prices that has held since the green revolution of the 1960’s has been replaced by a trend of price increases and increased price volatility (FAO,2011). Since food is often the single biggest expense for poor rural households, increased prices may translate directly into reduced food security. At the same time a sustained increase in food prices may represent a market opportunity for food producers in rural areas. The role of agriculture in releasing the poverty cycle in South Africa should be more intensely investigated (NPC 2013).

Climate Change Risks and Vulnerabilities

This section of the adaptation plan summarises the main findings contained in the report on the Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment that accompanies this plan, and which contains details of the modelling and reports used as well as full referencing of the different sources used. The report describes a conceptual framework for understanding climate change risks and vulnerabilities and draws from current scientific modelling of the future impacts of climate change to provide a spatial overview of environmental risks and social vulnerabilities in relation to climate change.

While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are specific to local contexts. For this reason, local risk and vulnerability assessments are critical to responding effectively to climate change. It is suggested that the general approach to understanding vulnerability adopted in the national assessment should be adapted and applied to local adaptation planning processes.

Conceptual Framework

The conceptual framework used by the UNDP to determining climate change vulnerabilityis summarised as:

Vulnerability = exposure to climate hazards and perturbations x sensitivity – adaptive capacity (UNDP 2010)

Figure 2: Conceptual Model for Climate Change Vulnerability

In this approach:

Climate hazards are defined as the direct impacts of climate change such as changes in temperature and precipitation.

Climate sensitivity refers to the manner in which living systems respond to climate change, such as changes in the distribution and incidence of plant and animal species.

Adaptive capacity refers to human, material, financial, natural and political capabilities which people possess that will allow them to make the required adjustments enabling them to cope with climate change. Adaptive capacity is dependent on the level of social vulnerability which people face and is therefore high when social vulnerability is low and vice versa.

Hazard exposure and sensitivity can be understood as encompassing environmental risk. It is not practical to directly assess adaptive capacity at a national scale, since this can only be determined by a detailed assessment of subjective factors determined at the scale of particular communities and even households. There is however a number of pertinent indicators of social vulnerability that can be used to identify settlement characteristics that lead to reduced adaptive capacity. Overall vulnerability to climate change becomes then an outcome of the interaction between social vulnerability and environmental risk.

Climate Science and Uncertainty

Climate projections are developed through combining climate models that are continuously being updated, refined and improved with scenarios that estimate the future forcing effects of greenhouse gas emissions on the climate. The resulting climate change projectionsdo not predict the future, but rather define a range of possible futures in terms of probabilities, and help climate scientists understand current trends.Which projections will most closely approximate the real world depend not only on improvements in modelling climate, but also on future trends in term of economic growth, population growth and the impacts of internationallytreaties to restrict emissions. As a result, climate change presents a difficult challenge for policy makers, who need to make decisions that may have far reaching implications based on uncertain information. The use of terms and concepts such as the ‘precautionary principle’ and ‘least-regret options’ in adaptation discourse is a reflection of the accepted degree of uncertainty associated with climate science.

In order to overcome uncertainty, policy makers must both seek to reduce uncertainty by supporting efforts to improve capacity in data collection, research, modelling and simulation; and they must manage uncertainty that is intrinsic to climate projections by integrating it into decision making.

Environmental risk

Due to its geographical location and characteristics, South Africa experiences an unusually wide range of weather conditions and a high degree of natural climate variability. Climate change is reflected in long term changes to the trends in averages for climate variables such as surface temperature and annual rainfall.

Climate change refers to changes in the long-term average of weather conditions. There is a growing body of evidence that climate change is also linked to increases in the variability of weather, including an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and extreme climate events. This variability represents an immediate challenge in relation to disaster risk management.

Extreme weather events refer to extremes in atmospheric conditions such as temperature, rainfall and wind experienced over a day or a few weeks and may have disastrous consequences for human settlements. Extreme climate events are an accumulation of extreme weather events over a period of years or decades, such as anincrease in multi-year droughts. Collectively, extreme weather and extreme climate events are referred to as climate extremes.

Climate extremes can have cumulative impacts. For instance, a combination of below average rainfall and above average temperature can result in an elevated risk of veld-fires. South African rural human settlements are at particular risk from climate extremes such as floods or droughts due to a variety of social vulnerabilities, such as poor infrastructure and services. An example of this is the difficulty in providing relief services to dispersed settlements where access by road is poor.

Hazard Exposure

Hazard exposure can be understood as the extent to which changes in atmospheric conditions due to climate change are experienced in a particular location. These changes include average increases in temperature over time, increases in the frequency and intensity of storms, and changes in precipitation patterns, and seal level rise.

Hazard exposure can result in both gradual impacts such as declines in crop yields over many years or sudden impacts resulting from an increased exposure to extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and storms.

Hazard exposure is not experienced the same way everywhere. Sea level rise obviously has no direct impact on inland rural communities, but is relevant to coastal rural human settlements where assets may be vulnerable to beach erosion caused by storm surges. Key determinants of hazard exposure and the impacts with which they are associated are discussed below.

Changes in Temperature

In the future the temperature for South Africa, as for the rest of Africa and much of the world, is expected to rise. The extent of increase is uncertain and dependant on, amongst other factors, the effectiveness of international efforts to curb the emissions of greenhouse gas responsible for human-induced climate change. Based on current projections, the average temperature increase for South Africa is expected to be between 2 and 6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, although this increase will not be uniform across the country.Due to the moderating influence of the ocean, temperature is likely to increase less over the coastal regions than the interior. Temperature maximums will however, increase and new record temperatures can be expected.

Table 1: Potential impacts of projected temperature increases

Temperature change

Impact

Increased number of warm and very hot days and increased maximum daily temperatures

Increased evaporation impacting on the availability of surface water

Soil degradation due to increased acidity, nutrient depletion, declining microbiological diversity, lower water retention and increased runoff.

Positive or negative impacts on crops and growing season length depending on local topography, precipitation and crop types. Some crops, particularly deciduous fruits, require a chill factor during winter to be productive.

Increased incidence of heat waves and associated risks for human and livestock health from heat stress, particularly for the very old and young, and those already suffering from illness.

Increase in the concentration and range of pests and pathogens that comprise human and livestock disease vectors, such as malaria and ticks.

Increased risk of wild fires and associated damage to crops, property and infrastructure.

Changes in Precipitation Patterns

Although South Africa is regarded as semi-arid, the country experiences marked regional differences in rainfall patterns in terms of the timing, intensity and quantity of rainfall and these differences are projected to increase in the near and in the long term:

The west of the country is drier than the east. Areas which border Namibia (the Richtersveld) may only receive less than 50 mm of annual rainfall while the mountains of the south west Cape can receive more than 600 mm of rainfall. (Palmer & Ainslee 2013).

There are three major rainfall zones in South Africa: the winter rainfall region of the western, south western and southern Cape; the bimodal rainfall region of the Eastern Cape, and the summer rainfall region of the Highveld and KwaZulu Natal.

Downscaled climate change models suggest that in the near term (2021 – 2050) there is a likelihoodof increased drying and associated risk of drought in the western and north eastern parts of the country, becoming more pronounced in the long term (2071 – 2100). Climate models indicate a range of possible scenarios, and there is significant uncertainty as to whether the southern and eastern cape is likely to become wetter or drier. It is also possible that the direction of change (wetter or drier) may alter when comparing long term scenarios to near term scenarios.

Climate models suggest that there will be an overall increase in the annual variability of rainfall, and an increased risk of rainfall arriving in the form of intense precipitation events. An increase in the projected number of dry days for any particular region is not incompatible, therefore, with an increase in the projected number of consecutive wet days but rather indicates a future in which rainfall is more erratic.

Table 2:Potential impacts of projected changes in precipitation patterns

Change in precipitation patterns

Potential Impacts

Increased number of consecutive dry days

Decreases in runoff and stream flow and an increased risk of drought, affecting crop production, food security and rural livelihoods.

Reduced stream flow is a particular threat for rural communities that are directly dependant on surface water resources.

Loss of soil moisture affecting crops and increasing the risk of soil erosion due to wind.

Increased risk of veld-fires and resultant damage to property, grazing, and crops.

Increase in number of consecutive wet days and/or increase in extreme precipitation events

Increased risk of floods, with consequent risks of damage to crops, property and loss of life.

Water logging of soil affecting crops.

Increased risk from water borne diseases such as cholera.

Damage to bulk water infrastructure, irrigation systems and water reticulation.

Damage to property and crops from winds associated with violent storms.

Extreme precipitation events are often preceded by lightening, which is responsible for a significant number of fatalities in rural areas every year

Changes in the variability and timing of precipitation

Farmers rely on predictable rains for timing the planting of crops, and subsistence farmers practicing rain-fed agriculture are particularly at risk.

Increased variability and unpredictable timing of rainfall impacts directly on the management of catchments and bulk water infrastructure, threatening the availability of water.

Sea level rise, oceanic warming and ocean acidification

Sea level rise stems from both the thermal expansion of water and the melting of glaciers and land-based ice sheets at the poles. Currently most sea level rise is a result of warming sea-water, but it is expected that this will be out-stripped by melting in future. The current rate of sea-level rise shows some regional differences across the South African coastline, with the west coast rising 1.87 mm per year, the south coast by 1.47 mm per year and the east coast by about 2.74mm per year. The rate of sea level rise is very likely to increase in future, but there is a high degree of uncertainty over the time scales and extent of change.

The ocean reduces the impact of man-made GHG emissions by absorbing CO2, but this results in ocean acidification. This will be detrimental to many marine species, particularly those relying on calcification to develop skeletons or shells, such as molluscs, corals and plankton.

Increases in sea surface temperatures have already been observed in South African waters and are expected to continue. Increased temperatures in our coastal and estuarine waters impact on the ranges of marine and estuary species, and an increasing southwards penetration of tropical fish species has been observed.

While sea level rise and ocean acidification are incremental phenomena, sea-level rise can exacerbate the impact of coastal storm surges, threatening urban infrastructure that breaches or is close to current coastal setback lines.

Table 3: Potential impacts of projected changes in oceanic systems

Changes in oceanic systems

Potential Impacts

Sea level rise

Salinisation of water sources provided by coastal aquifers on which some coastal communities depend

Damages to infrastructure and property located in coastal areas with a low elevation, aggravated by storm surges associated with extreme weather.

Oceanic warming

Changes to the distribution and ranges of estuarine and marine species important to livelihoods in rural fishing communities.

Ocean acidification

Impacts on the development and reproduction of estuarine and marine species important to livelihoods in rural fishing communities.

Sensitivity

Sensitivity refers to the reactions of ecological systems to exposure to climate change. For instance, a 2°C increase in temperature may affect the geographical extent of a particular ecosystem (such as savannah). Although ecological systems are complex, and their sensitivity to climate change is imperfectly understood, this is becoming an increasingly important focus of adaptation research.

Biodiversity

South Africa has a rich natural heritage of biodiversity. The IPCC 4th Assessment Report concluded that climate change will have, and is already having, significant impacts on biodiversity in terms of the distribution and incidence of species and therefore on the spatial extent of ecosystems.

Many indigenous species have intrinsic commercial value (such as rooibos), cultural value and medicinal value and biodiversity is an important aspect of the countries value proposition as a tourist destination. As a consequence, biodiversity contributes directly to rural livelihoods and the adaptive capacity of rural communities.

Examples of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems include:

Bush encroachment on grasslands due to elevated CO2 levels favouring woody plant species.

Changes in the composition of dominant plant and animal species as a result of differences in the sensitivity of species to increases in temperature, changes in rainfall, and frequency of veld-fires – these often favour pioneer species (weeds) and invasive aliens.

Studies of indigenous plant and animal species estimate that the area of land currently optimal for supporting the countries existing biomes could be reduced by between 38% and 55% by 2050 as a result of climate change. The most substantial losses are likely to be incurred in the western, central and northern regions of the country and include negative impacts on commercially significant species such as the rooibos plant.Changes to ecosystems as a result of climate change are initially most marked at the boundaries between different biomes.

Invasive alien species

Invasion by alien plant species poses a significant threat to indigenous biodiversity and alien species consume scarce water resources leading to reduced runoff. The economic impact of alien plant and insect species on grazing potential and crop losses is estimated at approximately US$ 3.5 billion per year.

Climate change may expand the range and incidence of some invasive pathogens and pests. It is likely that woody alien plants will benefit from climate related bush encroachment, altering ecosystem functioning in relation to stream flow, nutrient cycling, fire regimes, and incidence and behaviour of animal species amongst others. These changes almost invariably negatively impact on the ability of ecosystems to deliver goods and services that are important to rural communities.

Land use and agriculture

Human activities resulting in land use changes as a result of increased human population densities and increases in land under cultivation or grazing have a significant influence on the resilience of the environment to climate change. Apart from increases in human population density being directly correlated with declines in biodiversity, land use changes contribute indirectly to carbon dioxide levels through loss of sequestration potential and directly through carbon emissions associated with agricultural production. Land use changes also affect stream flow characteristics, exacerbating the impact of climate extremes such as flooding and drought.

Unsound agricultural practices can amplify the impact of climate change on desertification and land degradation. South Africa has fragile soils and large areas of the country are susceptible to soil erosion as a consequence of semi arid climate conditions, high rainfall intensity, and limited or degraded land cover.High sediment loads in stream flow as a result of soil erosion threaten the storage capacity and lifespan of water infrastructure such as dams and irrigation systems. This can have negative impacts on the quality and quantity of water available to rural communities.

At the same time, agriculture is of great importance for the climate resilience of the country in general and rural human settlements in particular as a source of employment, livelihoods, and food security and as a sector is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The impacts of climate change on agriculture are direct and specific to particular crops and agricultural techniques.

Projected changes in the variability of rainfall and in terms of long term trends for its timing, duration, and intensity are of great significance to farmers, with subsistence farmers relying on rain-fed agriculture at particular risk. Modelling of rainfall seasonality indicates that the timing of rain in the summer rainfall regions, which tends to fall later towards the west, will in general be delayed as a result of climate change. There is considerable uncertainty about the modelling on rainfall at the boundaries between the summer and winter rainfall regions, and a heightened risk of increased variability in these areas, implying both very wet and very dry periods.

Climate disasters

Climate disasters are the result of the disruptive physical impact or environmental effects of extreme weather events on socially vulnerable communities. Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events constitute an immediate and damaging impact of climate change that is already resulting in significant economic losses.

The level of environmental risk and social vulnerability of rural human settlements varies in relation to the specific nature of the climate related events to which they are exposed. Climate related events which can assume disastrous proportions and are of particular relevance to South African rural human settlements include drought, storms and flooding, and veld fires.

Climate related disasters can have either a sudden impact, as in the case of flash floods, or can have a more gradual onset that is the result of an incremental accumulation of environmental impacts, as is often the case with drought.

Drought

Droughts are defined in South Africa as a season’s rainfall of 70% less than normal, and are considered progressive or ‘slow onset’ disasters that are usually widespread rather than localised. Droughts caused damage estimated at R1 150 million between 2000 and 2009 in South Africa’s Second National Communication to the IPCC.

Drought should be thought of not only as a meteorological phenomenon relating to rainfall but also as a hydrological phenomenon reflected in changes to stream flow which is sensitive to factors such as evaporation rates, groundwater availability and recharge rates, geology, soil characteristics and land cover. Even when a meteorological drought is technically broken as a result of rainfall, it is possible for the amount of rainfall to have been insufficient to break a hydrological drought.

Floods and storms

Historical data indicates that floods are responsible for a greater number of human fatalities and cause greater damage to assets than droughts, and this is likely to be the case in the future as well. In South Africa between 2000 and 2009 floods, associated with high and often concentrated rainfall events, have caused damage estimated at R4 700 million, and have resulted in 140 deaths.

Although floods typically have a sudden impact, they can also have a gradual onset resulting from an accumulation of rainfall over several days or weeks. In these cases, flooding is typically preceded by water logging, in which soil becomes saturated and is unable to absorb additional rainfall. Water logging can cause extensive crop losses and the sensitivity of particular locations is determined by soil types and depth, as well as the geological sub-strata. Water logging is not typically a problem in the arid Northern Cape, but can be a problem in the eastern third of the country.

Key factors in determining the sensitivity of particular areas to flooding include slope, soil types, and land cover, as well as the presence of bulk water infrastructure such as dams capable of accumulating stream flow. Human settlements and infrastructure tend to significantly increase the runoff rate due to reductions in vegetative land cover and degradation of wetlands.

Storms are sudden events most commonly associated with severe thunderstorms and cold fronts.Storms are often associated with heavy precipitation, high winds, and flash floods, resulting in coastal and landslide damage. Each component has the ability to cause extensive damage.

Veld fires

Veld fires are a natural phenomenon in many of South Africa’s ecosystems, but a higher frequency of veld fires disrupts natural plant cycles, exposes soil to erosion and degrades ecosystems. Veld fires also can cause damage to human settlements and deaths, and are particularly damaging to the plantation forest industry. During the 2008 – 2009 period, wildfires caused damage estimated at R1,750 million, and 34 deaths.

Climate change is expected to result in an increased number of consecutive dry days and an increase in annual average temperatures. These climate changes, coupled with land use changes such as afforestation due to commercial plantations and the presence of invasive alien species, are associated with an increased in the incidence and destructive impact of veld fires.

Social vulnerability and adaptive capacity

As has been noted in Section 1.2, the concept of “rural human settlements” includes a wide range of settlement types, from small towns that are strongly linked to rural agricultural economies, to densely populated rural areas in which agriculture is of very little economic significance and only makes a marginal contribution to subsistence requirements. These different human settlement typologies experience vulnerability to climate change in different ways. The previous section looked at environmental risks that can be spatially differentiated to determine the exposure of particular communities to climate change, but adaptation planning also needs to respond to the social determinants of vulnerability.

Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of people to make the required changes that will enable them to adjust to a changing climate. Adaptive capacity is therefore defined by the resources, infrastructure and services available to people to respond to the risks of climate change. Further, adaptive capacity is defined by how people will experience hazard exposure; therefore it reflects the multiple stressors which people experience such as poverty, ill-health or unemployment. Adaptive capacity is inversely related to social vulnerability – a community with high adaptive capacity will have low levels of social vulnerability to climate change and vice versa.

The Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment that accompanies this plan includes spatial maps of key indicators of social vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This section of the plan summarises the approach to understanding and mapping the social determinants of vulnerability to climate change.

Infrastructure and Services

From the perspective of spatial development, one of the characteristics of urbanisation is that the concentration of people in densely populated urban environments reduces the costs of providing bulk utilities such water and sanitation, electricity, and waste management services. Similarly, infrastructure and related services such as roads, public transport, housing, and telecommunications can be more cost effectively delivered in urban environments than in rural environments. Whilst the sustainability of urban environments is ultimately dependent on the integrity of ecosystem services, access to these services and infrastructure greatly reduces the direct dependence of urban people on natural resources and their exposure to environmental risks associated with climate change.

Since the advent of democracy, significant progress has been made in extending access to basic services, as reported by StatsSA in the outcomes from national surveys and the census:

More households are using electricity for lighting (85% in 2011 compared to70% in 2001), and fewer households are using paraffin, wood or coal for cooking or heating.

In the last ten years, at the same time as the population grew by 7 million:

· Thenumber of people without access to water fell from 16% to 9%.

· The number of peoplewithout access to sanitation fell from 14% to 5%.

The number of households who get a weekly waste service has increased from 52% in 1996 to 62% in 2011. At the same time the number of households who don’t have any waste service at all has dropped from 10% to 5%.

Policy directives and fiscal provisions have been made to support the extension of free basic services to indigent households

At the same time, progress in the delivery of basic services has been both a cause and effect of the long term trend to urbanisation experienced in South Africa and the rest of the world. In the context of scarce resources, government has inevitably concentrated its efforts where they can be most cost-effectively expended.

Basic Services

One of the consequences of the logistical difficulties associated with the rollout of basic services to rural areas is that a disproportionate amount of the backlog in access to services, and particularly in the extension of free basic services, is located in rural areas:

Rural households are much less likely to have access to a supply of piped water close to their dwellings. Not only does this result in household activities being centred on the collection of water (which is often a strenuous and time-consuming task), but it also means that rural households may have to rely on unclean water sources that are a vector for diseases such as cholera and may be much more vulnerable to the impact of climate change on water availability than urban households. The lack of access to bulk waste infrastructure and irrigation schemes in some rural areas may also constrain the opportunities for both subsistence and commercial agriculture in the context of climate-related environmental risks to food security and rural livelihoods.

Rural communities are much less likely to have access to hygienic sanitation than urban households. Improved sanitation is vital in protecting the health of communities and safeguarding communities from infectious diseases of which the incidence will increase as a consequence of climate change.

The backlog in electrification is concentrated in rural areas. As a result, many rural households rely on other sources of energy such as wood, gas, dung, or paraffin. A reliable source of energy within dwellings is an important component of well-being and contributes to rural livelihoods by making income diversification more possible. Access to energy within the household for lighting, cooking and heating is especially beneficial for women as they are most often tasked with the unpaid work of sourcing energy, which detracts from other activities such as food production. Moreover, households which are reliant on wood as a primary energy source may contribute to deforestation and land degradation.

Although the removal of solid waste from close proximity to human dwellings is a mandated function of local municipalities, it is usually prohibitively expensive to extend the same level of service enjoyed by urban households to rural households, and those households with no access to waste removal services at all are overwhelmingly concentrated in rural areas. Not only is the dumping of solid waste a climate change hazard because of the release of methane; but the build-up of waste near human settlements also presents serious threats to human health and may present a fire risk.

Infrastructure

The environmental risks presented by climate change have significant implications for infrastructure such as housing, clinics, schools, roads and telecommunications, particularly as a consequence of shocks and stresses associated with extreme events such as floods, storms and droughts.These risks need to inform the design and geo-spatial positioning of infrastructure.

Buildings that are deemed resilient may have some of the following features: flood and lightning protection, efficient water systems for drought protection, cool spaces, heat reflective surfaces, damp proofing and appropriate north/south orientation. Furthermore buildings should be strategically placed to avoid flood plains, green spaces and coastal setback lines.

For similar reasons to those already identified in relation to basic services, government low-cost housing programmes and other forms infrastructural upgrades tend to take place within the urban edge, or constitute an expansion of the urban edge. As a consequence, rural human settlements outside the urban edge may be particularly vulnerable:

There is a relative lack of housing programmes that specifically target people living in rural areas. Of the 1,139,916 households living in traditional housing as reported in Census 2011, the overwhelming majority live in rural areas (1,047,797). While traditional housing is not necessarily less resilient than a poorly built low cost housing, these houses are less likely to have access to basic services and it may be undesirable or difficult to safely provide such services in the conventional manner.

As of 2011, approximately 296,357 households in rural areas (defined as tribal/traditional areas or farms in Census 2011) lived in informal housing, or shacks. While informal settlements are not specifically a rural problem, informal settlements often develop on marginalized land that may be particularly exposed to, for instance, flooding. Informal housing isconstructed with inferior building materials that offer little protection against the environmental risks associated with climate change. In many cases, informal housing presents significant health risks for their inhabitants, such as a lack of air circulation inside the dwelling.

Government spending on roads and public transport tends to focus on the routes connecting major urban centres. As a consequence, many rural settlements can only be accessed by dirt roads or even footpaths. These roads are particularly vulnerable to degradation during rains, which can compound the difficulties associated with providing disaster relief services to remote rural communities. Furthermore, the difficulty and expense in accessing urban markets experienced by remote rural communities constrains rural livelihoods and income diversification opportunities.

Public infrastructure such as schools and health clinics in rural areas tend to be less accessible, more poorly equipped and less structurally resilient than in urban areas. They are also much more likely to lack basic services such as electricity, water and sanitation – greatly constraining their functionality.

Health

As has already been noted, inadequate access to basic services and infrastructure can increase exposure to health risks associated with climate change. Poor health, in itself, is a source of vulnerability that exacerbates the impact of climate change on individuals by making by making them more vulnerable to heat stress or diseases and pathogens,such as cholera and malaria, with vectors influenced by climate change.

Population age profile

Census data shows that 28.4% of the population of South Africa is between the ages of 0 and 14 years and 21% of the population is between the ages of 15 and 24 years, rendering the population of South Africa extremely young. The median age of the South African population is 25 years (Indexmundi 2013).

Many rural areas are populated by high numbers of children and the elderly due to working age people migrating to urban areas to find employment or further education, as well as the impact of HIV / AIDS epidemic, which has particularly affected economically active people. This is particularly true of the former homelands, which tend to have a lower than proportion of women, children and the elderly. Not only are the elderly and children, particularly infants, constitutionally more vulnerable to the effects malnutrition and extremes in temperature, but they are less likely to be economically active, resulting in higher rates of poverty in communities whose demographics are distorted towards the young and elderly. The links between poverty and ill-health have been well established, and the role of poverty as a factor in discussed later in the context of economic vulnerability.

Malnutrition in children

One of the most socially impactful links between poverty and ill-health is that of childhood malnutrition, which can results in physical stunting and intellectual impairment. Due to the high rates of poverty in many of South Africa’s rural areas, there is also anincreased incidence of childhood malnutrition. This is particularly the case in the rural areas of the Eastern Cape and the Northern Cape, which experience the highest levels of poverty in the country and the highest rates of childhood malnutrition. Incidence of childhood malnutrition is also positively correlated with social inequality, and is disproportionately experienced by the poorest black and coloured communities.[footnoteRef:1] [1: Eyob Zere, Diane McIntyre. 2003. Inequities in under-five child malnutrition in South Africa. Int J Equity Health. 2003; 2: 7. Published online 2003 September 11. doi: 10.1186/1475-9276-2-7]

Communities with high levels of malnutrition are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change on food security, both in terms of its impact on households with some reliance on subsistence agriculture, and its impact on food prices in the context of rural poverty.

Access to primary health care

South Africa is currently aiming for a target of 3.5 PHC visits per person per year. The Primary Health Care Utilization rate provides an indication of areas in which people have or do not have regular and easy access to medical care from medical facilities and therefore serves as an indication of the amount and location of people that are more vulnerable to climate change because of inadequate health services.

In rural areas, medical facilities are often far apart and ill-equipped. Since climate change is likely bring new environmental stressors to bear upon the health of communities such as heat stress, waterborne diseases and increased malnutrition, access to regular and quality medical care will enhances the adaptive capacity of rural settlements.

Economic vulnerability

The socio-economic status of households and profile of communities is a key driver of vulnerability to climate change. One of the most constructive ways of determining local vulnerability of climate change for rural people is by analysing the sensitivity of rural livelihoods to climate-related environmental risks. A ‘livelihood’ is considered to consist of the assets, activities and entitlements that enable people to make a living. Rural livelihoods tend to be much more dependent on natural resources and therefore more directly vulnerable to climate change than is the case in urban environments. Much of the rural economy is linked to agriculture, for instance, with subsistence farming forming an important component of many rural livelihoods.

Employment and income

Employment is very often a key component of livelihoods in that it provides income and access to social networks and communication, and is often a determinant of the ability to take out and repay loans. There has been a steady increase in rural unemployment in the past decade, to the point at which it had reached an estimated level of 52% in 2012, as reported in a briefing to Parliament's public service and administration portfolio committeeby the Director General of the Performance Monitoring and Evaluation Department. This is well above the national average and has contributed to a situation in which the levels of household incomeare substantially lower in rural communities than in the metropoles.

Poverty, with lack of accumulated wealth, inadequate access to basic services and unreliable and insufficient income being important determinants of poverty, affects the ability of rural households to respond to environmental stresses and shocks. For instance, poor people spend proportionately more of their income on food and may depend on subsistence agriculture to supplement their nutritional requirements. In the absence of accumulated wealth, increases in food prices or loss of household crops due to flooding or drought can result in a nutritional crisis.Similarly, it is may be difficult for poor households to replace assets lost due to extreme weather events. Furthermore, in the absence of savings and the ability to take out loans, it may be difficult for poor households to make financial investments required to adjust to changing climate conditions – such as investments in climate-resilient crops and agricultural techniques.

Land tenureand land use

Land tenure in rural areas tend to be less secure than in urban environments, and as a result inhibits investment of capital in rural development. This in turn affects land use regimes, and has resulted in a large amount of underutilisation and inefficient use of land. The two main sources of insecurity are the land restitution process and the status of land under traditional authorities:

Currently, there is neither a legislative mechanism nor a coherent resourcing strategy to ensure that environmental concerns, including the implications of climate change, are taking into consideration during or after the process of deciding on land claims.

The uncertain status of individual land ownership in “tribal” lands and the legislative challenges around communal land ownership makes it difficult to leverage finance against these properties.

At the same time, customary arrangements around land use, which may involve overlapping but distinct rights to the different natural resources attached to a particular piece of land being held by a variety of different people, may also in some cases provide a basis for innovative adaptive responses that promote access to land by poor rural people who would struggle to secure such access in an open property market.

Gender

Gender inequalities exist in South Africa and these inequalities are often more pronounced in rural areas. In South Africa women already experience multiple stressors; such as unpaid and lowly paid work, child rearing, and insufficient access to basic services. Further it may be challenging for women to gain access to land under the governance of traditional leadership. Climate change is expected to make already existing development challenges worse; specifically for female headed households.

Mapping social vulnerability

In general, it is possible to say with a high level of confidence that rural human settlements are particularly vulnerable to climate change as a result of their elevated exposure to environmental risks, and the social vulnerabilities that exist as a result of the urban focus of service delivery and the socio-economic vulnerability of a large proportion of rural households. On its own, this warrants national government redirecting national resources to supporting climate change adaptation in rural communities. At the same time, this should support the many linkages and dependencies that exist between urban and rural communities that are vital to the long term sustainability of our cities.

The challenge lies in determining how and where national resources to support adaptation should be allocated. A common theme of the preceding analysis has been the large degree of differentiation that exists between rural communities. Not all rural communities experience the same vulnerabilities to climate change, nor can all rural communities be considered equally vulnerable. Furthermore, within particular communities, not all households experience the same level or types of vulnerability.

Figure 3, drawn from the Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability for Rural Human Settlements, provides an overview of the spatial distribution of social vulnerability to climate change, based on a composite mapping of indicators relating to the dimensions of social vulnerability discussed in the preceding analysis.

Figure 3: Composite mapping of social vulnerability indicators

What Figure 3cannot reflect, are the environmental risks, social conditions and human potential that pertain for particular rural communities. Nor does it reflect the economic significance of the environmental risks attached to climate change. For instance, while social vulnerability appears relative low in the Western Cape, the impact of climate change on deciduous fruit and wine farming could have devastating economic consequences for the rural economy of the province.

For this reason, support for local and community-level adaptation planning, leveraging community experiences and indigenous knowledge as well as detailed studies of downscaled climate projections and environmental sensitivity provided by climate scientists, must form a central part of the national adaptation response for rural human settlements.

The need for adaptation

Even if climate change mitigation activities are implemented, science indicates that carbon dioxide concentration will continue to rise for some time into the future, temperatures will continue to rise and that the sea level will also continue to rise. While mitigation efforts are crucial to limiting the extent of these changes, a certain amount of change is now inevitable and failure to plan for these changes could have catastrophic effects for societies the world over. The following quote by Smith and Lenhart (1996) encapsulates the need for climate change adaptation and specifically within Africa.

“Africa is one of the regions of the world potentially most vulnerable to climate change. Warming of the globe due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases appears to be inevitable. Therefore, it is imperative that policy makers in regions such as Africa begin to consider what measures they should take to adapt to the potential consequences of climate change.”

In the absence of strategies to improve to develop climate resilience, climate change threatens the sustainable development goals of the country, and particularly the goal expressed in presidential outcome 7 of: “Vibrant, equitable and sustainable rural communities with food security for all”.

The vulnerability to climate change of any particular rural human settlement is determined by the degree to which it is exposed to the environmental risks caused by climate stresses and shocks and this susceptibility is affected by the ability of individuals within the affected community to cope, recover and adapt:

· Coping involves the ability to engage in practises and access resources in order to live with the impacts of climate change. For instance, buying food to replace subsistence crops destroyed in a flood is a coping strategy.

· Recovery involves the ability to restore or replace that which was lost or damaged as a result of climate change. For instance, replanting crops after a flood is a recovery strategy.

· Adaptation involves making changes that lowers susceptibility to harm from the impacts of climate change. For instance, rehabilitating a wetland to reduce the impact of future floods on nearby land under cultivation is an adaptation strategy.

Improving the resilience of rural human settlements to the stresses and shocks associated with climate change therefore involves more than simply improving their ability to “bounce back” in the sense of returning to a previous state in response to a climate event. It also involves making progressive changes to the base status and capacities of human settlements that reduce their susceptibility to the environmental risks associated with climate change.

The links between adaptation and development

In 2008 the Department of Environmental Affairs published the National Framework for Sustainable Development. The Framework spells out a clear vision for sustainable development in South Africa:

“South Africa aspires to be a sustainable, economically prosperous and self-reliant nation state that safeguards its democracy by meeting the fundamental human needs of its people, by managing its limited ecological resources responsibly for current and future generations, and by advancing efficient and effective integrated planning and governance through national, regional and global collaboration.”

The national vision is underpinned by a set of principles that guide all decisions and actions taken to achieve the vision. These principles underscore a cyclical and systems approach to achieving sustainable development and are as follows:

Efficient and sustainable use of natural resources

Socio-economic systems are embedded within, and dependent upon, eco-systems

Basic human needs must be met to ensure resources necessary for long-term survival are not destroyed for short term gain.

The sustainable livelihoods approach to rural development is based around the concept of capital assets (human, physical, financial, natural and social assets) upon which people draw for their livelihoods. These assets are a precondition and complement to social and economic development. Within the sustainable livelihoods approach poverty is seen as more than income poverty or a lack of wealth, and rather as a condition of insecurity or vulnerability to shocks and stresses. Sustainable livelihood is a way of living that is resilient to shocks and stresses and does not adversely affect the environment for present and future generations. Poverty is therefore seen as a dynamic rather than static condition, and the poor move in and out of relative poverty as they respond to the opportunities, shocks and stresses that they experience.

The five assets classes that are used in sustainable livelihoods approach are:

Natural, including natural resource stocks, environmental sustainability, energy efficiency

Social resources (networks of support, membership of groups, relationships of family and trust)

Physical, including shelter, basic infrastructure, transport, power supply and means of production

Human capital, including good health, skills and knowledge

Financial resources, such as savings, availability of affordable credit, remittances and pensions

There is a strong alignment between the sustainable livelihoods approach to development outlined above, and the requirements for climate change adaptation planning. Adaptation planning should therefore focus on strengthening the resilience of the assets upon which rural livelihoods depend.

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Adaptation responses

Drawing on the risk and vulnerability assessment, the table below provides a list of potential adaptation responses that should be considered during local adaptation planning processes based on relevance as determined by local assessments of risks, vulnerability and adaptive capacity.

Table 4: Adaptation Responses

Climate change environmental risks

Drivers of Rural Social Vulnerability

Potential Climate Change Adaptation Responses

Decreased availability of surface water:

Increased temperatures leading to higher evaporation rates

Reduction in annual precipitation and seasonal droughts

Alien infestation

Impacts on runoff from human settlements and agriculture

Lack of access to reticulated water supply and dependence on open water sources such as rivers, ponds, and dams for drinking and sanitation.

Dependence on open water sources for irrigation agriculture.

Conflicts between agriculture and rural settlements for access to water

Strengthen water resource planning and infrastructure

Rainwater harvesting

Alien-clearing programmes

Sustainable use of groundwater resources

Environmentally-friendly and socially acceptable sanitation solutions

Catchment management informed by modelling of climate vulnerability

Water-wise crop cultivation and irrigation practices e.g. drip irrigation

Reduced agricultural yields

Changes in the timing, duration and intensity of rainfall, drought, flooding and waterlogging

Increased surface temperatures and loss of chill units, heat waves

Veld fires

Soil degradation and erosion

Increase in alien infestations and agricultural pests and pathogens

Dependence on agriculture for employment and wealth creation

Subsistence farming and dependence on small-scale agriculture for food security

Vulnerability to food price increases due to poverty

Lack of access to capital for investment in agriculture due to insecure tenure

Lack of access to agriculturally productive land

Agricultural extension programmes to promote climate-sensitive agriculture (water and soil conservation, crop selection)

Research and innovation in crops and livestock farming

Composting of organic waste linked to community food gardens and commercial food production

Technical and financial support to small-scale and subsistence farmers, agricultural co-operatives and improved access to markets

Communications strategy and early warning systems for food producers (commercial and subsistence)

Audit of indigenous agricultural knowledge and traditional agricultural practices, to build on existing climate resilient capabilities

National standards for organic produce to promote organic farming

Development to support income diversification

Land use management, land reform and reform of legislative framework for communal lands informed by modelling of climate change vulnerability

Loss of Biodiversity

Changes to temperature and precipitation patterns

Changes to the natural fire regime

Bush encroachment and