deprem tehlike analizine giriş
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş: Türkiye’den Örnekler
Introduction to Seismic Hazard Analysis: Examples from
Turkey
Ali Osman Öncel, Turkey
Knowledge exists to be imparted. (R.W. Emerson(
![Page 2: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Deprem Tehlike Analizi
• Erzincan ve Çevresi• Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu• Artçı Şokların Etkisi• Tehlike Haritaları• Mmax Estimation
Ali Osman Öncel, Turkey
![Page 3: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Ali Osman Öncel, Turkey
![Page 4: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Erzincan ve Çevresinin Sismotektoniği
Ali Osman Öncel, Turkey
![Page 11: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Deprem Tehlike Analizi
• Erzincan ve Çevresi• Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu• Artçı Şokların Etkisi• Tehlike Haritaları• Mmax Estimation
Ali Osman Öncel, Turkey
![Page 21: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Aktif Fay Haritaları
Ali Osman Öncel, Turkey
![Page 25: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Türki’nin Depremleri
Ali Osman Öncel, Turkey
![Page 26: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Depremlerin Yıllara Göre Değişimi
Ali Osman Öncel, Turkey
![Page 27: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Türkiye ve Çevresinin Depremselliği
![Page 28: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
![Page 29: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
![Page 30: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
![Page 34: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
![Page 35: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
![Page 36: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
![Page 38: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Deprem Tehlike Analizi
• Erzincan ve Çevresi• Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu• Artçı Şokların Etkisi• Tehlike Haritaları• Mmax Estimation
Ali Osman Öncel, Turkey
![Page 39: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
![Page 40: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Artçı Şokların Etkisi
Ali Osman Öncel, Turkey
![Page 41: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Tüm Şok ve Anaşok Deprem Verileri
Ali Osman Öncel, Turkey
![Page 42: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
![Page 43: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Tekrarlanma Aralıkları Arasında ki Fark
![Page 44: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Deprem Tehlike Analizi
• Erzincan ve Çevresi• Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu• Artçı Şokların Etkisi• Mmax Estimation
Ali Osman Öncel, Turkey
![Page 45: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
![Page 46: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
İvme Haritası
Ali Osman Öncel, Turkey
![Page 47: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
![Page 48: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
![Page 49: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
A. Kijko
Flaw in the EPRI Procedure for maximum earthquake magnitude estimation and
its correction
ESC 2010 6-10 September 2010 Montpeller, France
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
Knowledge exists to be imparted. (R.W. Emerson(
![Page 50: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
Contents
1. EPRI Bayesian Procedure for mmax
estimate
2. What is wrong with the procedure and
why?
3. How to cure it? Illustration
4. Conclusion and Remarks
![Page 51: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
EPRI Procedure for mmax estimation (Cornell, 1994(
Splendid idea …
- combination of
observations with already
existing knowledge!
![Page 52: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
EPRI Procedure for mmax Estimation (Cornell, 1994)
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
Prior mmax distribution for intraplate regions
Courtesy Mark Petersen, USGS
Cratons Margins
![Page 53: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
EPRI Procedure for mmax Estimation (Cornell, 1994)
Gaussian prior mmax distribution(e.g. M Ordaz, 2007)
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
![Page 54: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
EPRI Procedure for mmax Estimation (Cornell, 1994)
Petersen's prior & Gaussian prior
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
5 . 5 6 6 . 5 7 7 . 5 8 8 . 50
0 . 5
1
1 . 5
2
2 . 5
M a g n i t u d e mm a x
Prior
P r i o r D i s t r i b u t i o n s o f mm a x
G a u s s i a n p r i o r ( m e a n m
m a x= 6 . 9 2 S D = 0 . 5 )
P r i o r f o r i n t r a p l e t e r e g i o n s b y M . P e t e r s e n ( U S G S )M e a n o f p r i o r m
m a x
![Page 55: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
EPRI Procedure for mmax estimation, (Cornell, 1994)
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
⋅=
maxmaxmax mof
yprobabilitprior
mgiven
likelihoodsampleconst
samplethegiven
mof
yprobabilitPosterior
![Page 56: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
)()|()( maxmaxmax mpmLkmp priorposterior ⋅⋅= x
5 . 5 6 6 . 5 7 7 . 5 8 8 . 5 9- 1 . 4
- 1 . 2
- 1
- 0 . 8
- 0 . 6
- 0 . 4
- 0 . 2
0E x a m p le o f s a m p le l i k e l i h o d f u n c t i o n s
M a g n i t u d e
ln(like
lihoo
d fun
ction)
S a m p l e l i k e l i h o o d f u n c t i o n
" t r u e " mm a x
= 6 . 9 2
mm a x
o b s = 5 . 8 9
EPRI Procedure for mmax estimation, (Cornell, 1994)
5 . 5 6 6 . 5 7 7 . 5 8 8 . 50
0 . 5
1
1 . 5
2
2 . 5
M a g n i t u d e mm a x
Prior P
DFP r i o r D i s t r i b u t i o n s o f m
m a x
G a u s s i a n p r i o r ( m e a n m
m a x= 6 . 9 2 S D = 0 . 5 )
P r i o r f o r i n t r a p l e t e r e g i o n s b y M . P e t e r s e n ( U S G S )M e a n o f p r i o r m
m a x
![Page 57: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
Flow in EPRI Procedure
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
• For the sample likelihood function,
the range of observations
(magnitudes) depends on the
unknown parameters.
• This dependence violates the
fundamental rules of application of
maximum likelihood estimation
procedure.
![Page 58: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
• EPRI Bayesian procedure by default will underestimate value
of mmax !
• EPRI Bayesian procedure will locate mmax somewhere between maximum observed magnitude
and “true” mmax
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
Flow in EPRI Procedure
![Page 59: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
Confirmation 1: Prior Distribution for Intraplate Regions (by M. Petersen, USGS)
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 06 . 1
6 . 2
6 . 3
6 . 4
6 . 5
6 . 6
6 . 7
6 . 8
6 . 9
7
7 . 1
E s t i m a t e d mm a x
w i t h p r i o r o f mm a x
f o r i n t r a p la t e r e g i o n s
A c t i v i t y r a t e L a m b d a * T i m e s p a n o f c a t a lo g u e [ Y ]
mm
ax
mm a x
e s t i m a t e d
mm a x
o b s e r v e d
" t r u e " mm a x
= 6 . 9 2
![Page 60: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
Confirmation 2: Gaussian Prior (by Cornell, 1994)
1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 06 . 1
6 . 2
6 . 3
6 . 4
6 . 5
6 . 6
6 . 7
6 . 8
6 . 9
7
7 . 1
E s t i m a t e d mm a x
w i t h G a u s s i a n P r i o r
A c t i v i t y r a t e L a m b d a * T i m e s p a n o f c a t a lo g u e [ Y ]
mm
ax
mm a x
e s t i m a t e d
mm a x
o b s e r v e d
" t r u e " mm a x
= 6 . 9 2
![Page 61: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
How to Correct the Flaw in the EPRI Procedure?
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
• Eliminate effect
• Eliminate cause
![Page 62: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
Approach #1: Eliminate Effect
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
Shift the Likelihood Function from
maximum observed magnitude to
maximum expected mmax
Δmm̂ obsmaxmax +=
[ ]∫=∆max
min
d)(m
m
nM mmF
![Page 63: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
Approach #1: Eliminate EffectCorrection by Shift of Sample Likelihood Function
Approach #1: Correction by shift of Sample
Likelihood Function
0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 06 . 5
6 . 6
6 . 7
6 . 8
6 . 9
7
7 . 1E f f e c t o f s h i f t o f s a m p le l i k e l i h o o d f u n c t i o n
N u m b e r o f e v e n t s
mm
ax
C u r r e n t E P R I P r o c e d u r eA f t e r c o r r e c t i o n b y s h i f t o f S a m p l e L i k e l i h o o d F u n c t i o n
" t r u e " mm a x
= 6 . 9 2
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
![Page 64: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Our Problem: For the sample likelihood function, the range of observations (magnitudes) depends on the unknown parameters
Approach #2: Eliminate CauseCorrection by Account of Magnitude Uncertainty
4 4 . 5 5 5 . 5 6 6 . 5 7 7 . 5 8 8 . 5 9
1 0- 6
1 0- 4
1 0- 2
1 00
M a g n i t u d e
G R
G R - a p p a r e n t
mmax
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
![Page 65: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 06 . 5
6 . 6
6 . 7
6 . 8
6 . 9
7
7 . 1E f f e c t o f a c c o u n t o f m a g n i t u d e u n c e r t a i n t y
N u m b e r o f e v e n t s
mm
ax
C u r r e n t E P R I P r o c e d u r eA f t e r c o r r e c t i o n b y a c c o u n t o f m a g n i t u d e u n c e r t a i n t y
" t r u e " mm a x
= 6 . 9 2
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
Approach #2: Eliminate CauseCorrection by Account of Magnitude Uncertainty
![Page 66: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Comparison of Two Correction Procedures
0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 06 . 5
6 . 6
6 . 7
6 . 8
6 . 9
7
7 . 1
C o m p a r i s o n o f mm a x
e s t i m a t i o n p r o c e d u r e s
N u m b e r o f e v e n t s
mm
ax
C u r r e n t E P R I P r o c e d u r e
A f t e r c o r r e c t i o n b y a c c o u n t o f m a g n i t u d e u n c e r t a i n t yA f t e r c o r r e c t i o n b y s h i f t o f S a m p l e L i k e l i h o o d F u n c t i o n
" t r u e " mm a x
= 6 . 9 2
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
![Page 67: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Andrzej Kijko, South Africa
Conclusions and Remarks
•Current EPRI Bayesian procedure by default underestimates value of mmax and locates mmax somewhere between maximum observed magnitude and “true” mmax.
•Underestimation of mmax can reach value of ½ a unit of magnitude.
•Two ways to correct the flaw of the procedure are presented.
![Page 68: Deprem Tehlike Analizine Giriş](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051017/55aa9bbe1a28ab9f258b478e/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
Thank You