design of a sediment removal & processing system for the

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Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the Lower Susquehanna River Dams Faculty Advisor Dr. George Donohue Sponsor West/Rhode Riverkeeper Project Team: Saqib Qureshi, Ray Fontaine, Sam Saleeb, Joel Stein George Mason University – Department of Systems Engineering & Operations Research (SEOR) – 2015

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Page 1: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the Lower

Susquehanna River Dams

Faculty AdvisorDr. George Donohue

SponsorWest/Rhode Riverkeeper

Project Team: Saqib Qureshi, Ray Fontaine, Sam Saleeb, Joel Stein

George Mason University – Department of Systems Engineering & Operations Research (SEOR) – 2015

Page 2: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Agenda

Concept DefinitionContext, Problem, Need, Scope, Stakeholder Analysis

3

2

1

Concept of OperationsRequirements, Operational Scenario, Design Alternatives

Method of AnalysisPerformance Curves, System Dynamics, Lifecycle Cost Model

4 RecommendationsUtility Analysis, Project Findings, Future Research

Page 3: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 20153

Project Overview

Three major dams located along the Lower Susquehanna River retain large

amounts of sediment and nutrient pollution. Episodic pulses of these

pollution loads are released into the Upper Chesapeake Bay during major

storms leading to environmental degradation.

This project seeks to reduce the amount of sediment loads retained behind

the Lower Susquehanna River Dams through a sediment removal and

processing system, and thereby reduce the ecological impact of major

storms on the Upper Chesapeake Bay.

Page 4: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Agenda

Concept DefinitionContext, Problem, Need, Scope, Stakeholder Analysis

3

2

1

Concept of OperationsRequirements, Operational Scenario, Design Alternatives

Method of AnalysisPerformance Curves, System Dynamics, Lifecycle Cost Model

4 RecommendationsUtility Analysis, Project Findings, Future Research

Page 5: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 20155

Sources: USACE, USGS [1]

The Lower Susquehanna River (LSR) Dams

Provide hydroelectric power, water storage, recreation

Historically acted as a system of sediment and nutrient traps; trapping 55% to 80% of the annual loads from 1928-2012

Safe Harbor DamBuilt: 1931Forms Lake Clarke

Holtwood DamBuilt: 1910Forms Lake Aldred

Conowingo DamBuilt: 1928Forms Conowingo Reservoir

Upper Chesapeake Bay

Page 6: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 20156

0

96

155164 162

174181

0

13.3 13.6 14.6

0

74 74

90.7 92.4

0

40

80

120

160

200

1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Cu

mu

lati

ve S

ed

ime

nt

De

po

siti

on

(m

illio

n t

on

s)

Year

Conowingo

Holtwood

Safe Harbor

Sources: USGS [2-4], USACE [5]

Sediment Storage Capacity of the Lower Susquehanna River Dams

Dynamic Equilibrium: a state of asymptotic fluctuation from near 100% capacity

Holtwood reached dynamic equilibrium in 1920’s; approx. 93% filled in 2008

Safe Harbor reached dynamic equilibrium in 1950’s; approx. 100% filled in 2008

Conowingo reached dynamic equilibrium in 2000’s; approx. 93% filled in 2011

Page 7: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 20157

Sources: UMD-CES[6]

Enhanced erosion of sediment due to reservoir flooding

Excess nutrients cause algae blooms, leading to oxygen dead zones

Silt deposition buries oyster beds and benthic organisms

Excess sediment blocks sunlight leading to subaquatic vegetation die off

Scouring Events: Subaquatic Vegetation,Benthic Organisms, and Water Quality

Episodic pulses of sediment and attached nutrients are released into the Upper Chesapeake Bay

Scouring Events: major storms, hurricanes, or ice melts which cause river flow rates above 400,000 cubic feet per second (cfs)

Case Studies: Tropical Storm Lee (2011), Tropical Storm Ivan (2004), Hurricane Agnes (1972)

NS

Page 8: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 20158

0.985

3.2252.5

0.51

2

2.9

4.75

6

8.8

13

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

SusquehannaRiver

ChesapeakeBay

Avg. 1978-2011

300 cfs 400 cfs 500 cfs 600 cfs 700 cfs 800 cfs 900 cfs 1 mil. cfs

Sed

ime

nt

Lo

ad (

mill

ion

to

ns)

TMDL Limit for 2025 Annual Load from Susquehanna and Steady-State Scour Transient Flow Scouring Events

Sediment Load for TMDL Limits, Annual Amounts, and Scouring Events

Sources: USGS [7], EPA [8-9], USACE[5]

Total Maximum Daily Load: Regulation to restore Bay by 2025

Scouring Events above 500,000 cubic feet per second surpass Susquehanna TMDL limits for the Susquehanna by 1 to 13 times

Scouring Events below 300,000 cubic feet per second contribute upto 0.5 million tons of sediment

Page 9: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 20159

Previous Sediment Mitigation Studies

Design of a Dam Sediment Management System to Aid Water Quality Restoration of the Chesapeake Bay

George Mason University; 2013-2014

Evaluated: artificial island construction, dredging and reuse through topsoil, Lightweight Aggregate, and Plasma Vitrification; only for the Conowingo Dam

Sources: USACE[5], GMU[10]

The Lower Susquehanna River Watershed Assessment (LSRWA)

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; 2011-2014

Evaluated: bypassing sediment, modifying dam operations, dredging and quarry, dredging and reuse through Lightweight Aggregate and island restoration

Results:

Alternatives evaluated are not cost-effective

sediment mitigation strategies; dredging

needs to be done on a regular cycle

Gaps:

Other processing alternatives

Evaluate dams upstream of Conowingo

Results:

Plasma Vitrification yielded a positive ROI

Artificial island did not reduce sediment to a

significant degree

Gaps/Recommendations:

Evaluate dams upstream of Conowingo

Re-evaluate feasibility of Plasma Vitrification

Page 10: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201510

Problem Statement: The Lower Susquehanna River Dams have acted as a

sediment and nutrient trap for approximately 80 years. However the Safe Harbor,

Holtwood, and Conowingo dams have reached near maximum sediment storage

capacity. Due to the increased deposition, the predicted amount of harmful

sediment that will enter the Upper Chesapeake Bay during a major scouring event

will surpass TMDL limits, and significantly damage the Bay’s ecosystem more than

previously.

Need Statement: There is a need to develop a sediment removal and

processing system to reduce the sediment build up in the Lower Susquehanna River

Dams, in order to reduce the ecological impact of future scouring events.

Page 11: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Stakeholder Interactions and Tensions

Page 12: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Agenda

Concept DefinitionContext, Problem, Need, Scope, Stakeholder Analysis

3

2

1

Concept of OperationsRequirements, Operational Scenario, Design Alternatives

Method of AnalysisPerformance Curves, System Dynamics, Lifecycle Cost Model

4 RecommendationsUtility Analysis, Project Findings, Future Research

Page 13: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

13Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Mission Requirement ID

Description

MR. 1The system shall reduce sediment scouring potential from the Lower Susquehanna River Dams.

MR. 2 The system shall operate for a minimum lifecycle of 20 years.

MR. 3 The system shall remove at least 60 percent of the contaminants from the sediment.

MR. 4The system shall facilitate achievement of Susquehanna River TMDL limits of 985,000 tons of sediment and 1,900 tons of phosphorous per year.

MR. 5The system shall allow for continued hydroelectric power generation for the Lower Susquehanna River Dams.

Page 14: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201514

Sediment Removal and Processing SystemOperational Scenario

Sediment Removal Through Hydraulic Dredging

Sediment Processing in a Processing PlantDam and Reservoir

Dams: Conowingo, Holtwood, Safe HarborLifecycle: 30, 25, 20 yearsDredging Amounts: 1, 3, 5, million cubic yards/yearFunding: Government Bond

Page 15: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201515

Dredged Sediment Processing Alternatives

Sources: ENDESCO[11], Westinghouse[12]

Plasma Vitrification

Piloted by Westinghouse Plasma Corp. Uses plasma torches reaching 5000 deg. C destroying nearly all toxic and microbiological contaminants

Product: Glass Slag, replacement for coal slag, glasphalt, talc/feldspar, three-mix glass

Cement-Lock

Piloted by Gas Tech. Institute and Unitel Technologies. Thermochemical process involving a rotary kiln reaching temperatures from 1315 – 1425 deg. C.

Product: Eco-Melt, 30-40% replacement for Portland cement

Quarry/Landfill

Removing dredged sediment and placing it in deposit sites. Serves as the control/base case.

Product: None

Page 16: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Agenda

Concept DefinitionContext, Problem, Need, Scope, Stakeholder Analysis

3

2

1

Concept of OperationsRequirements, Operational Scenario, Design Alternatives

Method of AnalysisPerformance Curves, System Dynamics, Lifecycle Cost Model

4 RecommendationsUtility Analysis, Project Findings, Future Research

Page 17: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

17Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Scour Performance

Curves

Fluid System Dynamics Model

Utility vs. Cost Analysis

Assumption Validation

Percent of Scouring Reduction

Dredging Amount

Processing Plant Lifecycle Cost

Model

Lifecycle Costs

GMU 2014 Model Results

Net Present Value for Each Alternative

Recommendations

Regression Model

Monte Carlo Simulation

Cost and Performance Analysis Overview Performance: Scour Performance CurvesFluid System Dynamics Model

Cost: Lifecycle Cost Model

System Dynamics Model

Page 18: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

18Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Scour Performance CurvesGMU 2014 Hydraulic Model

Sources: GMU[10]

Numerical simulation of the Conowingo Reservoir using bathymetry and velocity profiles

Simulated three flow rates (400K, 700K, 1 mil.) and three dredging amounts (1, 3, 5 million cubic yards per year)

Page 19: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

19Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Scour Performance CurvesAnnual and Aggregated Scour Reduction

Page 20: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

20Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Scour Performance CurvesAnnual Dredging Amounts and Scour Reductions for Conowingo, Safe Harbor, and Holtwood

1 million cubic yards/annual 3 million cubic yards/annual 5 million cubic yards/annual

Page 21: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

21Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Fluid System Dynamics Model Overview

Scour Performance

Curves

Fluid System Dynamics Model

Utility vs. Cost Analysis

Assumption Validation

Percent of Scouring Reduction

Dredging Amount

Processing Plant Lifecycle Cost

Model

Lifecycle Costs

GMU 2014 Model Results

Net Present Value for Each Alternative

Recommendations

Historical Data Inputs:Scouring Event Test Cases

Historical Water DataHistorical Sediment Data

Reservoir Profiles

Outputs:Cumulative Sediment Deposition

Sediment Scour Reduction

Regression Model

System Dynamics Model

Monte Carlo Simulation

Page 22: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

22Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

System Dynamics Model for Sediment Transport in the Lower Susquehanna River

Derive experimental coefficients with subset of historical data

Validate model with subset of historical data

Test Cases:

Scouring Events: 400,000 / 700,000 / 1 million cubic feet per second (cfs)

Capacitance: 0 to 1, 0.10 increments for each dam

System Dynamics ModelApproach

Model

SimulationRe-evaluation

Page 23: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

23Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Dams are analogous to hydraulic tanks storing water and sediment

Mass leaving the first tank enters the second tank, mass leaving the second tank enters the third tank, empties into Chesapeake Bay

Given: water flow rate into Safe Harbor (first tank)

System Dynamics ModelHydraulic Tank Analogy

Page 24: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

24Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

The amount of sediment entering the first tank:

π‘‘π‘šπ‘–π‘›

𝑑𝑑= πœŒπ‘ π‘’π‘‘π‘–π‘šπ‘’π‘›π‘‘ βˆ— 𝑄𝑖𝑛 π‘€π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿ

Where:πœŒπ‘ π‘’π‘‘π‘–π‘šπ‘’π‘›π‘‘ = .0007 βˆ— 𝑄𝑖𝑛 π‘€π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿ

.9996

Based on the conservation of mass:

π‘‘π‘šπ‘œπ‘’π‘‘

𝑑𝑑=

π‘‘π‘šπ‘–π‘›

π‘‘π‘‘βˆ’

π‘‘π‘šπ‘π‘£

𝑑𝑑

Sources: USACE[1]

System Dynamics ModelFormulation

Flow Rate of Water ( 𝑄𝑖𝑛 π‘€π‘Žπ‘‘π‘’π‘Ÿ)Mass entering reservoir (π‘šπ‘–π‘›)Mass within reservoir (π‘šπ‘π‘£)Concentration of Sediment (πœŒπ‘ π‘’π‘‘π‘–π‘šπ‘’π‘›π‘‘)

Page 25: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

25Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Sediment within the tank is eitherdeposited or entrained:

π‘‘π‘šπ‘π‘£

𝑑𝑑=

π‘‘π‘šπ‘‘π‘’π‘π‘œπ‘ π‘–π‘‘π‘’π‘‘

π‘‘π‘‘βˆ’

π‘‘π‘šπ‘’π‘›π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘–π‘›π‘’π‘‘

𝑑𝑑

Deposition or Entrainment is a function ofvelocity

Velocity is determined by applying thecontinuity principle

𝑣 = 𝑄𝑖𝑛/𝐴

Source: Z.Ji-2008 [13]

System Dynamics ModelDetermining Sediment Behavior

Velocity (𝑣)Water Flow Rate (𝑄𝑖𝑛)Cross Sectional Area (𝐴)

Page 26: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

26Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

π‘₯1 = 1, 𝑖𝑓 𝑣 βˆ’ π‘£π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘ π‘’π‘ π‘π‘’π‘›π‘ π‘–π‘œπ‘› β‰₯ 0

0, 𝑖𝑓 𝑣 βˆ’ π‘£π‘Ÿπ‘’π‘ π‘’π‘ π‘π‘’π‘›π‘ π‘–π‘œπ‘› < 0

π‘₯2 = 1, 𝑖𝑓 π‘£π‘‘π‘’π‘π‘œπ‘ π‘–π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘› βˆ’ 𝑣 β‰₯ 0

0, 𝑖𝑓 π‘£π‘‘π‘’π‘π‘œπ‘ π‘–π‘‘π‘–π‘œπ‘› βˆ’ 𝑣 < 0

π‘‘π‘šπ‘’π‘›π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘–π‘›π‘’π‘‘

𝑑𝑑= π‘˜1 βˆ— π‘₯1 βˆ— 𝑆𝐴

π‘‘π‘šπ‘‘π‘’π‘π‘œπ‘ π‘–π‘‘π‘’π‘‘

𝑑𝑑= π‘˜2 βˆ— π‘₯2 βˆ—

π‘‘π‘šπ‘–π‘›

𝑑𝑑

System Dynamics ModelCalculating Sediment Within Control Volume

Entrainment Parameter (π‘˜1) Mass within reservoir (π‘šπ‘π‘£)Deposition Parameter (π‘˜2) Mass entering reservoir (π‘šπ‘–π‘›)Mass deposited (π‘šπ‘‘π‘’π‘π‘œπ‘ π‘–π‘‘π‘’π‘‘) Mass entrained(π‘šπ‘’π‘›π‘‘π‘Ÿπ‘Žπ‘–π‘›π‘’π‘‘)

Bed Surface Area (𝑆𝐴)

Page 27: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

27Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

System Dynamics ModelCalculating Sediment Out of System

π‘šπ‘œπ‘’π‘‘ = 1 βˆ’ π‘˜2 βˆ— π‘₯2 βˆ— .0007 βˆ— 𝑄𝑖𝑛1.9996 + π‘˜1 βˆ— π‘₯1 βˆ— 𝑆𝐴 𝑑𝑑

Dam Subsystem

Simulink Model Architecture

Safe Harbor

HoltwoodConowingo

Page 28: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

28Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Reservoir Fill Capacity

400,000 CFS Scouring Event

System Dynamics ModelResults – Sediment Scoured

Results and Implications:1. Dredging all three dams still results

in the greatest scour reduction

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Reservoir Fill Capacity

700,000 CFS Scouring Event

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1Sed

ime

nt

Sco

ure

d (

Mill

ion

To

ns)

Reservoir Fill Capacity

1 Million CFS Scouring Event

2. The Conowingo results in the greatest scour reduction, followed by the Safe Harbor, while Holtwood has the least3. Holtwood results in low scour reductions and should not be dredged

4. By implication, the most effective scour reduction would be dredging both Conowingo and Safe Harbor5. The results agree in general with the Scour Performance Curves

Page 29: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

29Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Lifecycle Cost Model Overview

Scour Performance

Curves

Fluid System Dynamics Model

Utility vs. Cost Analysis

Assumption Validation

Percent of Scouring Reduction

Dredging Amount

Processing Plant Lifecycle Cost

Model

GMU 2014 Model Results

Recommendations

Lifecycle Inputs:Plant Capital

Net Processing CostNet Dredging Cost

Land CostMarket Prices

Sediment to Product Ratio

OutputProbabilistic Estimate of Net Present Value (Average, 95%

Confidence Intervals)

System Dynamics Model

Regression Model

Monte Carlo Simulation

Page 30: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

30Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Variable Parameter DistributionPlasma

VitrificationCement-Lock Quarry

Plant Capital Plant capacities from 50,000 cy to 3

million cy/annual Triangular with +-15% tails $50 - $825 million $43 - $715 million N/A

Net Processing Cost / Tipping Fee

Energy Cost from 8-10 cents/kWh,and $4-$6/million Btu

Triangular with +-5% tails $155 - $205 per ton $60 - $90 per ton$5 - $40 per

ton

Dredging CapitalDredging Amount from 1 to 5 million

cy/annual Triangular based on low and high

bids$6 - $16 million $6 - $16 million

$3 - $7 million

Dredging Transport Distance from 0 to 15 milesTriangular based on low and high

bids $15 - $30 per ton $15 - $30 per ton$30 -$130

per ton

Land CostsAverage land cost per acre for each

geographic area

Triangular based on low and high bids $15K to $40K per acre $15K to $40K per acre N/A

Revenue PricesAverage market price for replacement

productTriangular: 70 to 85% of market

price $140 - $170 per ton $75 - $90 per ton N/A

Sediment to Product Ratio

Tons of sediment required to product one unit of product

Normal from pilot studies 2.5 tons 1.5 tons N/A

Interest Rate Municipal Yield Curve Normal of 2014-2015 data 2.7 - 3.5% 2.7 - 3.5% 2.7 - 3.5%

Page 31: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

31Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Alternatives Outputs

Dam ProductsDredging Amounts (for

each process)

Probabilistic Net Present Value for each Capacity, Plant, and

Processing Combination

Conowingo

Plasma NominalModerateMaximum

Cement-Lock

Quarry/Landfill

HoltwoodPlasma Nominal

ModerateMaximum

Cement-LockQuarry/Landfill

Safe HarborPlasma Nominal

ModerateMaximum

Cement-Lock

Quarry/Landfill

Processing Plant Lifecycle Cost ModelDesign of Experiment

Page 32: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

32Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Processing Plant Lifecycle Cost ModelAverage Net Present Value (by Dam)

Cement-Lock results in the least cost operation

Page 33: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Agenda

Concept DefinitionContext, Problem, Need, Scope, Stakeholder Analysis

3

2

1

Concept of OperationsRequirements, Operational Scenario, Design Alternatives

Method of AnalysisPerformance Curves, System Dynamics, Lifecycle Cost Model

4 RecommendationsUtility Analysis, Project Findings, Future Research

Page 34: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

34Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Value Hierarchy

Time: lifecycle of the processing plant operation.

30, 25, or 20 years depending on the amount dredged.

Suitability: percent of contaminants contained for

each processing technique. Cement-Lock and Plasma are around 80 to 99%, while Quarry is 0%.

Performance: the percent of scouring reduction

potential from each dredging amount.

Weights:

Time: 10%

Suitability: 30%

Performance: 60%

*Weights were derived through discussion with the project sponsor, West/Rhode Riverkeeper

Page 35: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

35Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Utility vs. Cost Analysis

*Note: net present value axis are NOT to scale

Cement-Lock at Moderate Dredging Total NPV: -$2 to -$1.3 billionPerformance: 26 percentLifecycle: 25 years

Cement-Lock at Moderate DredgingTotal NPV: -$900 to -$500 millionPerformance: 13 percentLifecycle: 25 years

Not Recommended Due to Low Scour Reduction Potential

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Page 36: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

36Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Recommendations and Future Research

1. Detailed Hydrological Model If desired, for more precise scour reduction estimates and to further test the dynamic interaction effect

2. Exhaustive Survey of Nutrient Management Strategies Example: neutralizing the deposited sediment to remove nutrients and contaminants

3. Pilot Study for Cement-Lock Technology on Lower Susquehanna Sediment Volcano Partners LLC are the patent holders

4. Further Research for an Integrated Plasma and Architectural Tile Processing Plant Glass slag may be used as a substitute for three-mix glass, a material used in architectural tile production

Page 37: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Questions

Page 38: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

[1] β€œLower Susquehanna River Watershed Assessment (LSRWA) Appendix A1: Additional Information for Susquehanna River and Conowingo Reservoir.” US Army Corps of Engineers, US Geological Survey, November 2014.

[2] R. Hainly, L. Reed, H. Flippo, G. Barton. β€œDeposition and Simulation of Sediment Transport in the Lower Susquehanna River Reservoir System.” US Geological Survey, 1995

[3] M. Langland, R. Hainly. β€œChanges in Bottom Surface Elevations in Three Reservoirs on the Lower Susquehanna River, Pennsylvania and Maryland, Following the January 1996 Flood – Implications for Nutrient and Sediment Loads to Chesapeake Bay.” US Geological Survey, 1997

[4] M. Langland, β€œBathymetry and Sediment Storage Capacity Changes in Three Reservoirs on the Lower Susquehanna River, 1996-2008.” US Geological Survey, 2009

[5] β€œLower Susquehanna River Watershed Assessment (LSRWA) Draft Main Report.” US Army Corps of Engineers, November 2014.

[6] β€œResponding to major storm impacts: Ecological impacts of Hurricane Sandy on Chesapeake and Delmarva Coastal Bays,” University of Maryland, Center for Environmental Science, PDF, 2012.

[7] R. Hirsch, β€œFlux of nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment from the Susquehanna River Basin to the Chesapeake Bay during Tropical Storm Lee,” U.S. Geological Survey, 5185, 2012.

References

Page 39: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

[8] EPA, β€œChesapeake Bay TMDL.” Internet: http://www.epa.gov/chesapeakebaytmdl/

[9] EPA, β€œChesapeake Bay TMDL: Section 9 – Chesapeake Bay TMDLs.” Internet: http://www.epa.gov/reg3wapd/tmdl/ChesapeakeBay/tmdlexec.html

[10] S. Gravette, R. Ain, S. Masoud, K. Cazenas. β€œDesign of a Dam Sediment Management System to Aid Water Quality Restoration of the Cheasapeake Bay.” George Mason University, April 2014.

[11] M. Mesinger, 'Sediment Decontamination Demonstration Program: Cement-Lock Technology', ENDESCO Clean Harbors, L.L.C., Des Plaines, IL, 2006.

[12] D. McLaughlin, S. Dighe and N. Ulerich, 'Beneficial Reuse of Vitrified Dredged Estuarine Sediments -Phase III Final Report', Westinghouse STC, Pennsylvania, 1999.

[13] Z. Ji. Hydrodynamics and Water Quality. Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley-Interscience, 2008

References

Page 40: Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the

Appendix Slides

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41Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Sources: Chesapeake Bay Program [1]

The Lower Susquehanna River

The Chesapeake Bay

The Chesapeake Bay The largest estuary in the U.S.

Spans from MD to VA

Supports wildlife, recreation, commerce

The Susquehanna River The largest tributary to the Bay

Supplies 50% of the freshwater

Flows from NY to MD

F1: Google Maps

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Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the Lower Susquehanna River Dam & Reservoir NetworkDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201542

Subaquatic Vegetation, Benthic, and Water Quality Data for the Bay

Subaquatic vegetation has declined by 140,000 acres (as of 2013) from 1937 levels

On average, only 47% of the Bay has met acceptable benthic index levels for the past 16 years

On average, only 31% of the Bay has met water quality standards for the past 27 years

Attributed to: excess sediment and nutrient (nitrogen/phosphorous) loads

Susquehanna contributes 27% of the sediment, 41% of the nitrogen, 40% of the phosphorous load annually into the Bay

Source: EPA-2012 [5]

0

20

40

60

80

100

1985 1994 2003 2012

Per

cen

t A

ttai

nm

ent

Year

Achievement of Water Quality Standards; 1985-2012

x = 31.9%

Source: CBP [4]

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

1984 1991 1998 2005 2012

Acr

es

Year

Annual Subaquatic Vegetation (SAV) Population; 1984-2013

Source: VIMS [2]

0

20

40

60

80

100

1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Per

cen

t A

ttai

nm

ent

Year

Benthic Index of Biotic Integrity;1996-2012

Source: CBP [3]

x = 46.7%

𝑠 = 4.80% 𝑠 = 4.92%

x = 64,274 acres

𝑠 = 11,174 acres

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Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201543

The Lower Susquehanna River (LSR) Dams

Safe Harbor Located in Manor Township, PA; 32 miles from the Bay

Forms Lake Clarke; 10 miles long

Holtwood Located in Matric Township, PA; 25 miles from the Bay

Forms Lake Aldred; 8 miles long

Conowingo Located in Conowingo, MD; 10 miles from the Bay

Forms the Conowingo Reservoir; 14 miles long

Provide hydroelectric power, water storage, recreation

Historically acted as a system of sediment and nutrient traps; trapping 55% to 80% of the annual loads from 1928-2012

Source: USGS-1995 [6]

F2: Washington Post

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Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201544

Steady-state flow < 400,000 cubic feet per second (cfs)

Average annual river flow: 40,000 cfs

Dynamic Equilibrium creates a periodic cycle of scour and deposition, with scour occurring from 150,000 cfs –400,000 cfs

Scouring below 400,000 cfs can discharge upto 1 million tons of sediment

Sources: ACE/STAC-2011 [10], USGS-2012 [5]

Normal Conditionsβ€˜Steady-State Problem’

Extreme Conditionsβ€˜Transient Problem’

Transient flow > 400,000 cubic feet per second (cfs)

Scouring Events: transient flow events such as major storms or hurricanes that release large amounts of pollution loads from the Susquehanna watershed and reservoirs of the LSR Dams, eventually discharging into the Upper Bay.

Low Frequency, High Severity

Ex: Tropical Storm Lee in 2011 discharged 4 million tons from the reservoirs; 300% of TMDL regulationF3-4: UMD-CES

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Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201545

The Steady-State Problem

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46Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Scouring Event Frequencies

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Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201547

Gap Analysis: Predicted Average Sediment Loads from the Lower Susquehanna River Dams During Major Scouring Events

Sources: ACE-2014 [9]

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

400 cfs 500 cfs 600 cfs 700 cfs 800 cfs 900 cfs 1 mil. cfs

Ave

rage

Se

dim

en

t Lo

ad (

mill

ion

to

ns)

Average Streamflow (thousand cubic feet per second)

Load from LSR D/R Network Load from Susquehanna Watershed Susquehanna River TMDL (approx. 1 mil. tons)

Lower Susquehanna River Dams Scour Load

Susquehanna Watershed Scour Load

44.5%36%

32.5% 31.5%31%

69%67.5%

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48Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Sediment Cores Study

Sediment consists of the following types of contaminants:

1. Nutrients – carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous

2. Metals – arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, iron, manganese, nickel, lead, zinc, silver, and mercury.

3. Trace Organic Compounds – polycylic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH’s), polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB’s), and other pesticides

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49Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Characterization of Sediment in the Lower Susquehanna Dams

Nutrients attached to sediment causes environmental degradation

Nutrient attached primarily to clay and silt, not sand

During scouring events, 5% - 10% of the sand is transported in the scour load

Total Amounts of Clay and Silt:

Lake Clarke: 67.45 million tons

Lake Aldred: 5.69 million tons

Conowingo Reservoir: 152 million tons

Sources: ACE-2014 [9]

27

61

16

44

24

52

2915

32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Lake Clarke Lake Aldred Conwingo Reservoir

Pe

rce

nt

of

Sed

ime

nt

Typ

e D

ep

osi

ted

Sand Silt Clay

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Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201550

Need Statement & Proposed Solution

There is a need to develop a sediment removal and processing

system to reduce sediment build up in the Lower Susquehanna River

Dams, in order to reduce the ecological impact of future scouring

events.

Proposed Solution: Remove deposited sediment in the reservoirs via

hydraulic dredging and process sediment into marketable products in

a processing plant operation to offset the costs.

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Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201551

LSRWA Recommendations and Insight: Reservoir Scour

1. Scour should be reduced from both the Susquehanna watershed and the reservoir scour from the dams:

Pg. 3 of Executive Summary

Link: http://mddnr.chesapeakebay.net/lsrwa/docs/report/ExecutiveSummary.pdf

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Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201552

LSRWA Recommendations and Insight: Nutrients and Sediment

2. Although the US ACE study concluded that nutrients are the main issue, they also stated that by conducting sediment management, we are also managing nutrients (since most of the phosphorous is attached to the sediment).

Pg. 3 of Executive Summary

Link: http://mddnr.chesapeakebay.net/lsrwa/docs/report/ExecutiveSummary.pdf

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Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201553

LSRWA Recommendations and Insight: Dredging

3. From our interpretation of the report, what the US ACE stated was that dredging would need to be done on a regular cycle or annually, to be performance effective, while keeping in mind that the costs would be very, very high. In addition, the US ACE mainly looked at dredging and placing sediment into quarries or lightweight aggregate, while we wanted to re-evaluate the plasma vitrification alternative, and see if any other product can give us a lower cost, or even result in a profit margin.

Pg. 4 of Executive Summary

Link: http://mddnr.chesapeakebay.net/lsrwa/docs/report/ExecutiveSummary.pdf

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Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201554

Hogan, Exelon at Odds over Dam Sediment’s Impact on Bay Washington Post Front Page – 04/06/2015

Link: http://www.pressreader.com/usa/the-washington-post/20150406/281513634666489/TextView

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Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201555

Primary Stakeholder Description Objective(s)

West/Rhode Riverkeeper, Inc. (WRR)

β€’ Non-profit organizationβ€’ Founded in 2005

β€’ Protect watershed communityβ€’ Attempt to stop pollutionβ€’ Help authorities enforce environmental laws

Pennsylvania Power and Light (PPL)

β€’ Licensed operator of Holtwood Damβ€’ Produce 230MW annuallyβ€’ Privately owned

β€’ Provide clean renewable energyβ€’ Licensed through 2030

Safe Harbor Water Power Corporation (SHWPC)

β€’ Licensed operator of Safe Harbor Damβ€’ Produce 114MW annuallyβ€’ Privately owned

β€’ Provide energy during peak demandβ€’ Licensed through 2030

Exelon Generation

β€’ Temporarily licensed operator of Conowingo Dam

β€’ Produce 500 MW annuallyβ€’ Privately owned

β€’ Provide clean renewable energyβ€’ Pending relicensing

Pennsylvania and Maryland Residents

β€’ Farmers and residents around the Lower Susquehanna River Watershed

β€’ Residents receiving power

β€’ Ability to use the river for farming and recreation

β€’ Receive power with no increase in cost

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Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR DamsDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201556

In Scope Out of Scope

Conowingo, Holtwood, and Safe Harbor Dams

York Haven DamReason: low head dam, does not fully cross river, does not trap

sediment to a significant degree

Sediment Deposition in ReservoirsSediment Loads from Watershed and Preventing

Sediment LoadsReason: addressed by TMDL

Nutrients Attached to Solid Sediment Free Flowing NutrientsReason: addressed by TMDL/other regulations

Scouring Events (Transient Flow)Normal Conditions (Steady-State Flow)

Reason: episodic scouring is most detrimental, mitigating transient problem may help with steady state problem

Sediment Removal and ProcessingOther Sediment Mitigation Techniques

Reason: evaluated by Army Corps of Engineers and George Mason as infeasible

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57Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Processing Technique

Product

Produced

Suitability

Plasma Vitrification Glass Slag High cost, however recommended to be further

evaluated by GMU Study due to high revenue

Cement-Lock EcoMelt Moderate cost and was not evaluated by prior

studies

Particle Separation/Soil

Washing

Topsoil Low cost and revenue, evaluated prior by GMU

Study

Thermal Desorption Construction

Aggregate

Similar costs to Cement-Lock, however lower

revenue, evaluated prior by US ACE Study

Fluidized Bed Treatment Agricultural

products

Discontinued development due to high costs

Flowable Fill Concrete Mix Has not been used for contaminated dredged

sediment

Glass Furnace Technology Glass Slag More cost-effective than Plasma Vitrification

however discontinued development

Electrochemical Remediation,

N/A Used only for sediment remediation, no product

produced to offset costs

Solidification/Stabilization N/A Used only for sediment remediation, no product

produced to offset costs

Base Catalyzed

Decomposition

N/A Discontinued development due to high cost, in

addition is used only for sediment remediation

Processing Alternative Evaluation

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58Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the Lower Susquehanna River Dam & Reservoir Network

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Manufactured Top Soil Alternative

Contaminents Acceptable Levels (mg/kg) Found Levels (ug/g)

abrev element Residential Non-residential Max avgSection of river

max found in (1-38)

Nutrients

C Carbon any any

N/AN Nitrogen any anyS Sulfur any anyP Phosphorous any any

Metals

Cd Cadmium 3.9 51 5.12 2 20Cr Chromium 23 310 135.35 85 21Cu Copper 310 41000 143.5 60 1Fe Iron 5500 72000 n/a n/a 11

Mn Manganese 160 2000 4793.12 1900 13Ni Nickel 160 2000 134.88 85 13Pb Lead 400 1000 129.95 50 1Zn Zinc 2300 31000 657.79 200 20

Metal/ Metaloid

As Arsenic 0.43 1.9 30.84 10 20Hg Mercury 2.3 31 0.66 0.2 7Se Selenium 39 510 11.71 2 21Ag Silver 39 510 11.03 0.5 21

PCBs 0.32 1.4 2.3 0.03 10

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59Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Potential Plant SitesDam Address Coordinates Description Size (acres) Distance Acquirability

Conowingo

Dam

2535 Silver Road,

Darlington MD

39.640744,

-76.171237

Farmland 184.15 3 miles High

Holtwood

Dam

162 Pinnacle Road

W, Holtwood PA

39.846517,

-76.331813

Farmland and

some forest

199.85 3 miles High

Safe Harbor

Dam

Chanceford, PA 39.915838,

-76.419359

Forest next to

farmland

285.26 2 miles High

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60Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

Processing Plant Lifecycle Cost ModelAverage Net Present Value (by Alternative)

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Design of a Sediment Removal & Processing System for the Lower Susquehanna River Dam NetworkDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 201461

HECRAS Hydrologic Model

β€’ Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS)

β€’ Developed by Army Corp of Engineers

β€’ Utilized in LSRWA 2014

β€’ Featuresβ€’ 1-D Steady/Unsteady Flow

β€’ Sediment transport, mobile bed, scouring

β€’ Varying bathymetry

β€’ Sediment grain size

β€’ Geospatial data

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62Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

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Utility Analysis (Combined)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000

Uti

lity

Average Net Present Value (Millions)

Conowingo Plasma

Conowingo Cement Lock

Conowingo Quarry

Holtwood Plasma

Holtwood Cement Lock

Holtwood Quarry

Safe Harbor Plasma

Safe Harbor Cement Lock

Safe Harbor Quarry

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63Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

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System Dynamics ModelResults – Sediment Scoured (Normalized)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1Sed

ime

nt

Sco

ure

d (

Mill

ion

To

ns)

Reservoir Fill Capacity (normalized)

400,000 CFS Scouring Event

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Reservoir Fill Capacity (normalized)

700,000 CFS Scouring Event

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Reservoir Fill Capacity (normalized)

1 Million CFS Scouring Event

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64Design of a Sediment Removal and Processing System to Reduce Sediment Scouring Potential from the LSR Dams

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research - George Mason University - 2015

System Dynamics ModelTabulated Results – Efficiency

Scouring Event Dam m b R-Squared

400,000

All 110,435,645.55 1,074,634.32 1

Conowingo 105,265,667.60 48,690,236.50 1

Holtwood 112,211,194.19 79,455,555.05 0.9

Safe Harbor 114,520,758.05 100,068,657.73 0.79

700,000

All 109,913,166.73 2,681,511.27 1

Conowingo 108,873,237.73 47,301,485.36 0.99

Holtwood 129,674,538.56 76,241,721.23 0.98

Safe Harbor 144,892,893.00 94,683,888.45 0.86

1,000,000

All 97,877,010.00 8,412,204.09 1

Conowingo 102,265,471.86 47,911,141.50 1

Holtwood 113,328,781.38 74,107,351.91 0.98

Safe Harbor 102,807,319.07 94,746,797.27 0.94