Designing a Real-Time Air Advisory Network for Schools in the San Joaquin

Valley

Presented for:

2011 National Air Quality ConferencesCommunicating Air Quality Session

March 7, 2011San Diego, California

David Lighthall, Ph.D.Health Science AdvisorSan Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District

Key Contributors in Early RAAN Development

Tim Tyner, M.S.: Associate Director, Center for Clinical and Translational Research, UCSF-Fresno;

Steve Packham, Ph.D.: Utah Dept. of Environmental Quality, Division of Air Quality;

Susan Lyon Stone: Ambient Standards Group, US EPA (via the Sacramento Metropolitan AQMD).

San Joaquin Valley’s Air Quality Quandary

1. Rapid population growth;2. Very high poverty and unemployment;3. Steady VMT increase beyond pop.

growth;4. Geophysical factors that accentuate

ozone and PM 2.5 formation.

San Joaquin Valley Population Growth: 2000-09

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

MaderaCounty

KingsCounty

MercedCounty

TulareCounty

StanislausCounty

SanJoaquinCounty

KernCounty

FresnoCounty

2000 Pop.2009 Pop.Net Growth

Comparable Ozone Exceedances to South Coast AQMD Via 1/7 the Emissions Density

Number of Days Above the Federal Eight Hour NAAQS of 0.08 ppm of Ozone

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Num

ber

of E

xcee

danc

es

SC SJV

Emission Density Number of Days Above the 1997 8 hr Ozone NAAQS of 0.085 ppm

RAAN’s Predecessor: The Air Quality Flag Program

1. School-front flag program designed to enhance community awareness. Also provides guidelines for protecting students from harmful exposures

2. Daily flag raised based on predicted county-level forecasted AQI (Red = AQI > 150)

a. Based on 24 hour avg. PM 2.5 or 8 hour avg. (max) ozone concentrations

b. Valley Air District has used the 1997 PM 2.5 AQI (phaseout) and 2008 ozone AQI

3. Risk reduction based on daylong restriction of outdoor activities on RED flag days

Impetus Towards Real-Time NotificationStricter National Ambient Air Quality Standards

Health science research: Basis for stricter NAAQS and AQIs for PM 2.5 and ozone in 2011-2012

Comparison of the Federal PM 2.5 24 Hour Standard and the Corresponding AQI Threshold for an Unhealthy (Red) Day

65

3530

65

55

45

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1997 2006 2011 (Anticipated)

Mic

rogr

ams

per C

ubic

Met

er

PM 2.5 24 hr Standard (µg/m3)

PM 2.5 AQI Red Day Threshold(µg/m3)

Comparison of the Federal Ozone 8 Hour Standard and the Corresponding AQI Threshold for an Unhealthy (Red) Day

84

65

105

85

75

96

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1997 2008 2011 (Anticipated)

Part

s pe

r Bill

ion

Ozone 8 hr Standard (ppb)Ozone AQI Red Day Threshold (ppb)

Impetus Towards Real-Time NotificationMore RED Flag Days

1. Challenges posed by increased frequency of RED flag days:a. Greater pressure on schools (and individuals)

to manage outdoor activitiesb. Increased tension between protecting and

promoting student health• protection = reducing exposure to

outdoor air pollution• promotion = increasing outdoor activities

and exercise

Fresno County: Estimated Increase in Unhealthy (Red) Days from Ozone During the School Year

7

2

1

4

1

15

8

5

12

9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2009 2008 2007 2006 2005

Num

ber o

f Day

s

Red Days @ 96 ppb (Current)

Red Days @ 86 ppb(Anticipated)

Fresno County: Estimated Increase in Unhealthy (Red) Days from Winter PM 2.5

23

11

33

15

18

2 2

5

10

14

4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2008-2009 2007-2008 2006-2007 2005-2006 2004-2005 2003-2004

Num

ber o

f Day

sRed Days @ 45 µg/m3(Anticipated)

Red Days @ 65 µg/m3

Impetus Towards Real-Time NotificationRegional Network of Hourly PM 2.5 Monitors

1. Valley Air District and CARB now operate 17 BAM PM 2.5 monitors in eight counties;

2. Provides technical basis for acceptably accurate real-time notification for most schools;

3. Comparable spatial coverage with ozone monitors.

SJVAB Air Monitoring

Stations(Ozone and

PM 2.5)

ArvinMaricopaEdisonBakersfield (4)

Shafter

Porterville

Sequoia-Kings Canyon (3)Visalia

CorcoranLemoore

HuronHanfordParlier

Fresno-Clovis (5)

Merced (2)Turlock

Tracy

Stockton (2)

Modesto

Madera

Tranquillity

Lebec

Manteca

Impetus Towards Real-Time NotificationControversy and Resistance to AQ Flag Program

1. Cancellation vs. non-cancellation of athletic events;

2. Pressure on District forecasters;3. Resistance to county-wide Red Day

forecasts when county AQ can vary widely.

Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN)Key functional elements

1. RAAN is a voluntary program for schools, parents, and general public:

a. Email or text notices sent within 20 minutes of hourly compilation;

b. Notices sent when Orange, Red, and Violet thresholds crossed;

c. Notices sent when AQ improves.

Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN)Key functional elements, cont.

2. Outdoor activity guidelines provided in matrix form:

a. Based on model developed by Sac AQMD and S. Stone of EPA.

3. Overall Goal: Provide schools with timely information linked to feasible but effective outdoor exercise policies that reduce risk to students (and residents) from short-term exposure to harmful air pollution.

Activity Recommendations for Schools on Poor Air Quality DaysAir Quality Index (AQI) Chart for PM 2.5 and Ozone

ACTIVITY0-50

GOOD

51-100

MODERATE

101-150 UNHEALTHY FOR

SENSITIVE GROUPS151-200

UNHEALTHY201-300

VERY UNHEALTHY

Recess (15 min)

No restrictions. No restrictions.

Make indoor spaceavailable for students with

asthma or otherheart/lung conditions.

Indoor recess is advised. Restrict outdoor activities to light exercise. Sensitive students should remain

indoors.

No outdoor activity. All activities should be

moved indoors.

P.E. (1 hr)

No restrictions.

Exceptionallysensitive

individuals shouldlimit intense

activities.

Any student who has asthma or other heart/lung conditions should

exercise indoors or limit the intensity of outdoor exercise.

Indoor P.E. is advised. Restrict outdoor activities to 15 minutes of high exertion.

Sensitive students should remain indoors.

No outdoor activity. All activities should be

moved indoors.

Athletic Practice and

Training (2-4 hrs)

No restrictions.

Exceptionallysensitive

individuals shouldlimit intense

activities.

Increase rest periods and substitutions for all students.

Insure that asthmatics or others with heart/lung conditions are

medically managing their condition.

Alteration of practice plans, including reschedule time of day or move indoors, adjust the amount of

conditioning activities, limited to 1 hr of high exertion with increased rest breaks

and substitutions. Sensitive students should remain indoors.

No outdoor activity. All activities should be

moved indoors.

Scheduled Sporting Events

No restrictions.

Exceptionallysensitive

individuals shouldlimit intense

activities.

Increase rest periods and substitutions. Insure asthmatics

or others with heart/lung conditions are medically managing their condition.

Alteration of game plan, reschedule or relocate when possible with increase rest breaks and substitutions per CIF guidelines. Sensitive students should

not participate.

Event must be rescheduled or

relocated.

Key Changes in Risk Assumptions Regarding the AQI

1. Outdoor activities restrictions based on AQI color for a given hour, not 8 or 24 hr averages;

2. Allows outdoor activities at cleaner times of day;

3. Results in higher frequency of restricted periods due to short-term Red level concentrations;

4. Risk reduction model: Reduce short-term exposure spikes, especial for sensitive population;

5. Assumes that a high fraction of 24 or 8 hr ambient exposure may occur at school.

Health Promotion from Outdoor Activities

1. Provides scheduling flexibility for outdoor activity on Red Days:

a. Daily ozone and PM2.5 are much lower in mornings

b. Air District forecasts can over-estimate pollution levels

2. Provides basis for long-term evolution towards scheduling activities at cleaner times of day

RAAN provides increased flexibility for outdoor activities on RED flag days

(Based on AQI with 45 ug/mg3 as Red Threshold)

RAAN provides increased flexibility for outdoor activities on RED flag days(due to temporal variability of ozone levels)

Health Protection

1. AQI forecasts may underestimate pollution levels on a daily or hourly basis

2. Real-time “Red-Zone” notification compensates for forecasting errors

3. Real-time notification provides warning of extreme local events such as wildfires and chemical spills

RAAN provides increased protection from VERY UNHEALTHY air

Combination of ozone and PM2.5 from wildfire smoke

Real Time Air Quality Advisory Network (RAAN)Email Notice for ARV247: Arvin

This is an air quality notification from the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District. The hourly Ozone monitor in your area has determined that as of 6 PM, the O3 concentration has reached the Unhealthy (Red) zone of the Air Quality Index.

Please visit CurrentConditions for a full summary of today's hour by hour air quality information as measured by the O3 monitor that is nearest to your school facility.

Recommended actions to protect student health during periods of poor air quality are also included on this web page under the tab labeled Outdoor Activity Guidelines.

The Valley Air District encourages you to use this link to periodically check hourly O3 levels for the remainder of this day.

If O3 concentration levels have dramatically risen in one hour's time, make a precautionary check of outdoor air quality at your facility and periodically check monitor values during the day.

These automated Unhealthy (Red) AQI notifications to Valley schools are only sent on regular school days (Mon-Fri) between the hours of 6am and 8pm.

If you have further questions about this air quality notification, please call one of the District offices and ask to speak with an outreach representative:

For after-hours emergencies, please call the after-hours emergency number: (559) 284-6317

Bakersfield (661) 392-5500

Fresno (559) 230-6000

Modesto (209) 557-6400

RAAN Learnings to Date

1. Beta launch in 2010 ozone season;2. Participating schools in all counties;3. Tension with AQ Flag Program in some

cases;4. School risk managers and teachers

appreciate the flexibility and accuracy;5. Considerable IT staff resources necessary;6. Strong endorsement from parents with

asthmatic children;7. Full media rollout in ozone season of 2011;8. Plan to expand to general population.

Reference Information

David Lighthall, Ph.D.Health Science AdvisorSan Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District559 230-6105david.lighthall@valleyair.org

RAAN signup: www.valleyair.org

RAAN monitor page: http://www.valleyair.org/programs/raan/raan_index.htm