Designing Peace & Peace Technology

Mark Nelson & Margarita QuihuisChance Discovery 15th Anniversary Symposium

University of Tokyo

August 2, 2014

AN OVERVIEW

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Mark NelsonFOUNDER, CO-DIRECTOR, STANFORD PEACE INNOVATION LAB

Former relief-worker, investment banker, and social entrepreneur, Mark Nelson founded and co-directs Stanford Peace Innovation Lab, where he researches mass collaboration and mass interpersonal persuasion. Mark focuses on designing, catalyzing, incentivizing, and generating resources to scale up collective positive human behavior change. He has described a functional, quantitative definition of peace, in terms of engagement quantity and quality across social difference lines; he has identified innovative, automated ways to measure peace, both at the neighborhood and global level; and he has developed a formal structural description for Peace Data. He leads the Social Energy Map project, and designs technology interventions to measurably increase positive, mutually beneficial engagement across conflict boundaries. Mark’s mission is to create an entire new, profitable industry, where positive peace is delivered as a service. Other projects include EPIC Global Challenge and Peace Markets. Mark is also a researcher and practitioner at Stanford Persuasive Technology Lab, and a member of Stanford’s Kozmetsky Global Collaboratory.

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Margarita QuihuisCO-DIRECTOR, STANFORD PEACE INNOVATION LAB

RESEARCHER, STANFORD BEHAVIOR DESIGN LAB

A social entrepreneur and mentor capitalist, Margarita Quihuis’s career has focused on innovation, technology incubation, access to capital and entrepreneurship. Her accomplishments include being the first director of Astia (formerly known as the Women’s Technology Cluster), a business incubator where her portfolio companies raised $67 million in venture funding, venture capitalist, Reuters Fellow at Stanford, and Director of RI Labs for Ricoh Innovations. She is currently a member of the research team at Stanford Design Lab, and directs the Stanford Peace Innovation Lab where she conducts research on innovation, mass collaboration, persuasive technology & the potential of social networks to change society for the better. Her projects have included the study of collaboration and citizen engagement to foster government innovation – Manor Labs, the application of mass interpersonal persuasion to foster social movements – Social-M, bottoms-up post-disaster response and recovery –Relief 2.0 and citizen psy-op efforts such as the the Israel Loves Iran and Romancing the Border social media campaigns.

She is a recognized thought leader in the areas of innovation, emergent social behavior and technology and has been part of Deloitte’s On Social Roundtable and Aspen Institute’s Dialogue on Open Innovation and Dialogue on Diplomacy and Technology.

As Director of R I Labs for Ricoh Innovations she created a consumer focused innovation lab that focused on new market opportunities from generational behavior (Millennials), cloud and mobile computing, emerging social technologies, crowdsourcing and open innovation.

Overview of today’s talk

1. What is Peace Innovation?

2. Conflicting Theories of violence (and their associated technologies)

3. Peace Tech Overview

4. Examples from the wild

What is Peace Innovation?

“At Stanford Peace Innovation Lab, we develop quantitative, predictive, computational methods and systems to sense engagement levels and interaction quality across group boundaries. We then provide design frameworks, principles, and methodologies for Behavior Design and Persuasive Technology interventions, to measurably increase positive engagement, at scale.

This approach to global risk management is primarily preventive, positive, and generative, rather than remedial or punitive. In addition it can be rapidly scalad and optimized. Most important, it is fundamentally profitable to both sides of potential conflicts, which, in combination with it’s quantitative nature, enables global capital markets to reallocate assets towards the solutions we develop.”

Is there a relationship between Peace and Innovation?

PEACE…

enables larger scale positive engagement,

transforming differences and conflict

into collaboration, which improves…

INNOVATION…

in turn creates new value, which (in the form of mutual benefit) can generate

more…

Why Peace Technology? The problem:

FIVE DEEP HUMAN TRENDS. THE FUTURE WILL BE:

1. Urban…

2. Dense…

3. Coastal…

4. Networked.

Result?

5. Most human conflict will be with irregular, non-state actors, in these urban environments (Kilcullen, 2012)

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Urgent Learning Needs

In the next three decades

Between 3 and 5 billion more of us must learn to

get along with each other much better

in these environments.

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Why Peace Technology? The Chance Discovery of solutions that weren’t previously possible

For the first time in human history we are recording inter-personal (and inter-group) very high resolution, in real-time.

Social software and mobile devices passively record social behavior every day.

Now that we can measure social behavior, we can design technology to increase and augment the we want.

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Our Research Question:

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HOW GOOD CAN HUMANS BE TO EACH OTHER?

Two Theories of Violence

1. ACTOR THEORY

PROBLEM = BAD ACTOR VS.

2. BEHAVIOR THEORY

PROBLEM = BAD BEHAVIOR

Traditional “Actor” Theory of Violence

1. PROBLEM: BAD ACTOR

HYPOTHESIS--ACTOR MUST EITHER BE:

• DRIVEN AWAY

• KNOCKED DOWN

• LOCKED UP

• TAKEN OUT

2. SOLUTION: AUGMENTING TECH

RESULTING TECHNOLOGIES ARE

• PUNITIVE

• VIOLENT

• DESTRUCTIVE

• INTIMIDATING

• COSTLY TO BOTH SIDES

IMPLICITLY, BOTH THE THEORY AND THE

TECHNOLOGY ASSUME THE ACTOR MUST

REMOVED

Behavior Theory of Violence

1. PROBLEM: DESTRUCTIVE

BEHAVIOR

HYPOTHESIS--ACTIONS MUST BE:

• POSITIVE

• VALUE-CREATING

• MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL

• PERHAPS EVEN FUN?

2. SOLUTION: AUGMENTING TECH

RESULTING TECHNOLOGIES ARE

• ENGAGING

• TRANSFORMATIVE

• MUTUALLY REWARDING

• BENEFICIAL

• VALUE-CREATING

IMPLICITLY, THE ACTION MUST BE IMPROVED

WE CALL THESE POSITIVE PAYLOAD

THEY ARE WEAPONS AGAINST VIOLENCE, PEOPLE

Example: “Counter Actor” vs “Counter Behavior” Technology

System Components Tech from Actor-basedtheory:(Assault rifle)

Positive Payload System (Israel loves Iran FB campaign)

Environmental Sensor Soldier’s 5 senses Citizen’s 5 senses

Tracker Soldier’s Situational Awareness Citizens’ Situational Awareness

Threat Detector Soldier’s brain, knowledge, experience

Citizens’ brains plus social data analytics

Targeter Eyes plus rifle sights Facebook groups

Deployment Mechanism Finger + trigger + bullet Facebook views, likes,

Payload Bullet delivers threat,injury, or death

Positive engagement: attention/awareness/regard/re

Impact Analyzer/Evaluator Soldier’s brain. Is perceived enemy/actor down or not?

Facebook Insights

Optimizer Weapons R&D Realtime A/B split testing,

Peace Technology Deployment Control Loop

Social Environment

Sensor

Opportunity or Conflict Detector

Targeter

Deployment SystemPayload

Impact Measurement &

Analytics System

Optimizer

Engagement model of Peace Innovation

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SEE WHITEBOARD DIAGRAM

Peace Data in the context of Big Data

Peace Data

Social Behavior Data

Behavior Data

Human Data

Machine-to-machine

Collective Intelligence

Collaboration

Cooperation

Coordination

Communication

Attention

Awareness0 HIGH

Qual

ity

of Eng

agem

ent

Positive but Unstable Peace

SustainablePeace

CorrespondingAugmenting Technology

Layers

-

Engagement Framework

Negative Peace

?+

X

Quantity of Engagement

3. Designing Peace Tech

M E A S U R A B L Y I N C R E A S I N G P O S I T I V E E N G A G E M E N T

Peace Innovation Design Loop

Choose target communities

Observe/choose tech they use

Pick a Positive Engagement

Behavior

Create Fast Prototype

Interventions

Measure Impact

Optimize (or Pivot) & Repeat

Peace Innovation Design Example

Communities: Copts & Salafis in Cairo

Tech they use: Facebook

Positive Behavior: Take photos

together to show they can get along

Fast Prototype Intervention: FB

Page and campaign

Measure Impact: How many photos

posted in one hour?

Optimize (or pivot) & Repeat

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Behavior Design vs Persuasive Technology

• Observable measurable action

• Move people to do something (not about changing attitudes or beliefs)

• One time or repeated behaviors

• Ability through simplicity

• Triggers

• Habits

Web, mobile, social technologies & devices:

• Give/increase ability

• Act as Triggers

• Are Sensors

• Measure if behavior occurred

• Deliver instant rewards to reinforce positive behavior

BEHAVIOR DESIGNPROCESS

PERSUASIVE TECHNOLOGYDELIVERY MECHANISM

Technology-mediated Behavior Change Can Be Measured

Powerful analytics engines have been democratized

5. Examples from the wild

( A N D E C O N O M I C I M P A C T )

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Four quick examples of peace technologies, and their economic impact

Increasing positive engagement across difference boundaries:

City Level: Citizen Engagement

City Level: Citizen Engagement

Neighborhood level: Civility Engagement

National Level: Citizen Diplomacy

Design for Civil Engagement

Manor Labs – Experiment in Citizen Engagement

Can a town use persuasive technology frameworks and applications to increase positive behaviors in communities?

Can we increase positive engagement between citizens and government?

Can we create new behaviors for citizen participation?

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Manor Labs - Impact

The City of Manor received input from over 800citizens, out of a population of 5,325, on their

their ideation platform, evaluated 80 ideas and implemented 5.

Recognized by the White House, Manor Labs

Labs was one of the first municipal innovation labs in the Gov 2.0 Movement.

Manor Lab’s QR Codes design has been adapted to 5 other projects across the US.

Ideation Platform has been used in 8 other

other projects, including those done by New York City, Bogota, Columbia, and the Cabinet Office in the UK.

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Behavior Design for Civility: UberMeta behavior: Collaborative Consumption

Targeted Behavior: Get People to Share Rides

Secondary Behavior: Driver & Passenger are Considerate

Behavior Goal:How do we get people to make Ride Sharing a Pleasant Experience?

Possible Motivations:Save /Make Money

Behavior Trigger:Rating Screen

Persuasive Technologies:• Mobile App

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Social & Economic Impact of Uber

As of May 2014 the Uber platform generates:

20,000 new driver jobs every month

$90,766 median small business annual income in New York City and $74,191 in San Francisco

$2.8 billion per year for the US economy (and growing)

Average pickup time of less than 10 minutes for 137,451,768 Americans (43% of the US covered in less than 4 years)

Reducing drunk driving i.e. more than 10% reduction in DUI arrests since launching in Seattle

Current Valuation in June 2014:$17.4 billion dollars. The world’s most valuable startup

Design for Citizen Diplomacy

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Social & Economic Impact of AirBnB

87 percent of Airbnb hosts rent out the home they live in and the typical host earns $7,530 per year.

62 percent of Airbnb hosts say Airbnb helped them stay in their homes and more than 50 percent of hosts are non-traditional workers (freelancers, part-time workers, students, etc.).

Airbnb visitors stay on average 6.4 nights (compared to 3.9 for hotel guests) and spend $880 at NYC

businesses (compared to $690 for average New York visitors).

82 percent of Airbnb listings in New York are outside of the main tourist hotel area of midtown Manhattan and the average Airbnb guest spends $740 in the neighborhood where she stays.

In one year, Airbnb generated $104 million in economic activity outside of Manhattan.

Contact & Resources

MARK NELSON

CO-DIRECTOR, STANFORD PEACE INNOVATION LAB

NELSONMM@STANFORD.EDU

MARGARITA QUIHUIS

CO-DIRECTOR, STANFORD PEACE INNOVATION LAB

QUIHUIS@STANFORD.EDU

RESOURCESPersuasive Technology: http://captology.stanford.edu

Fogg Behavior Model: http://www.behaviormodel.org

Behavior Grid: http://www.behaviorgrid.org, Behavior Grid Paper

Peace Innovation: Http://peaceinnovation.stanford.edu

Twitter: @peacedot

Facebook PeaceDot Page: http://www.facebook.com/peacedot

Facebook Peace Innovation Page: http://www.facebook.com/peaceinnovation