Designing Sectoral Results Frameworks

Teertha Dhakal, PhD

• Context- NPPR, 13th plan• Results-based planning process- basics• Results framework- what, why & how?• Model RFs (Incomplete)- Energy and Forest

Nepal Portfolio Performance Review (NPPR)

• NPPR (Basics) – Started since 2006, a forum where GON and DPs jointly identify issues and

actions in improving project implementation– Improve better devt outcomes improving project portfolio performance– A process of harmonization of portfolio review

• Coordination – Overall by MOF; Thematic coordination by concerned focal points; NPC is

leading on MfDR/M&E

• Identified themes– PFM, Procurement, Human resources, MfDR/M&E, Mutual accountability

(Agriculture, Energy, Local Devt, Road added this year )

• Action plan– Recommended by annual meeting and approved by the Cabinet

• Review– Quarterly and on annual basis

NPPR 2012: MfDR and M&E theme

Performance Indicators Target Dates

Results framework of at least 10 sectors incorporated in the plan document

Oct., 2013

Integrated M&E Guidelines disseminated April, 2013

Result-based MTEF prepared and implemented July, 2013

Annual survey conducted Nov., 2013

150 government officials trained in M&E/MfDR July, 2013

Evaluation reports received and disseminated Nov., 2013

Ten sectors for RFs : Education; Health; Local devt, Physical infrastructure; Urban devt; Agriculture; Energy; Irrigation; Forest and Soil Conservation; Environment

Goals

Plan

Results-based planning process

Budget

ImplementMonitor

Evaluate

Plan for results• Results defined• Indicators, targets

Budget for results• Budget aligned with

activities

Implement for results

Monitor results• Linked to planning• How & who• Data, reporting

Evaluate results• How & who• Dissemination,

feedback

Inputs

Decreasing management control

Output Outcome Impact

Low riskModerate risk

High risk

Risk and results

AssumptionsAssumptions

Assumptions

What is a RF?

• Results– Longer term results- Impact/outcome– Outputs that contribute to achieve longer-term

results

• Results Framework/MatrixA graphic display or matrix form of different levels or chains of results expected from a particular intervention- strategy, program or a project.

Why RFs?

It helps in mgmt and M&E in the following ways:

• Helps focus on specific outcomes• Highlights the key linkages and causalities that

underpins the intervention• Helps establish an evidence-based approach in M&E• Helps measure progress towards strategic objectives• Helps achieve strategic objectives

Steps to design a RF

• Identify problems and specify the theory of change to address them

• Set goals/objectives address them

• Define results (impact/outcomes/outputs)

• Identify critical risks and assumptions

• Specify indicators and data sources

• Design a M&E plan

Result chain in Result Framework

Category Significance

Impact What they achieve?

Outcome What they do?

Outputs What we achieve?

Activities What we do?

Inputs What we invest?

Operational vs. Developmental results

Inputs Activities

The adm./mgmt. product of agency, its programmes or projects

Developmental results

Output Outcome Impact

An actual change in the state of human devt. that is the logical consequence of investment in devt

Operational results

11

The Result Chain

Implementation Results

Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Impact

Financial human and Materials

Tasks and action taken to

Transform Input to outputs

Products: goods and services

produced

Intermediate effects on

clients

Long-term Improvement

in society

Planning

Implementation

Inputs

Outputs

Outcomes

Impact

Resources

WS SectorNew WS Sys.

MunicipalityWaste Mgmt Sys.

Access toDrinking Water

Reduced infectious diseases

Proper GarbageDisposal

Results Chain

PersonalCleanliness

Health SectorHealth Edu Program

Outcome/ Objectives

Strategies Indicators Baseline Target MOV Assumption/Risks

Policy/results framework used in the Tenth Plan/TYIP

Results Framework- Education

ResultsIndicators and MOV

Responsible Assumption/RiskIndicators Baseline Target MOV

Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3

Impact

Outcome 1 - AccessOutput 1.1Output 1.2

Outcome 2- QualityOutput 2.1Output 2.2

Outcome 3- EquityOutput 2.1Output 2.2

Outcome 4 AccountabilityOutput 2.1Output 2.2

Programs/ sub-programs

Results Chain- Projects link with sectoral resultsThemes/ Outcomes Outcome/outputs (Sectoral ) Program/ProjectsEducationAccess Quality Equity Accountability

AgricultureProductivityMarketing Food security

EnergyProductionTransmissionLeakage control

Forest & S. C.Sustainable forest mgmt.Bio diversificationSoil conservation Forest governance

Results Framework- EnergyResults Indicators Base

lineTargets MOV Res Assump./

Risks70/71 71/72 72/73

ImpactEco. growth through reliable energy sources

Contribution of energy sector in the GDP

Outcome 1:Access to the electricity increased  Output -1.1 Hydropower generation

Output 1.2: Transmission and distribution line

Output- 1.3Power leakage controlled

• Per capita electricity consumption rate (KW/H)

• % of population with access to the electricity

• Daily load shedding (in hrs)• Hydro power generation (in

MW)• Districts with access to

elec…… (national grid)• VDCs with access to elec..

• Length of the transmission line (KM)

• % of power leakage

108 

67.3   758 59

2640

29

140  

87    1426  

 3000

3040

21

Surveys, Census and Annual reports

MOEn

Policy priorities in hydro power

Results Framework- Energy

Results Indicators Baseline

Targets MOV Resp Assump./ Risks

70/71 71/72 72/73

Outcome - 2Contribution of the alternative energy increased Output -2.1Power generation from alternative energy

• % of population using fire wood as a main source of fuel

• Total production from this source (MW)

• % of population benefited by micro hydro.

64 35.3

12

57.3

19

Major Programs/ Projects Capacity/ Status

• Enhancement of private sector to the devt of electricity (Output 1.1)• Hydropower study program• Budhiganga hydro power project — 600 MW• Pancheshwor — DPR Preparation• Saptakoshi multipurpose project — DPR Preparation• Upper Tamakoshi hydro project — 456 MW• Narsinghgad hydro power Project — 410 MW

RF– Forest & S. C. (Pls. complete the R.F)

Results Indicators Base line

Targets MOV Res. Assum/ Risk

70/71 71/72 72/73

Impact            Outcome 1: Sustainable forest mgmt.Output -1.1Output- 1.2

Outcome 2: Bio-diversificationOutput -1.1Output- 1.2

Outcome 3: Soil conservationOutput -1.1Output- 1.2

Outcome 4: Forest governanceOutput -1.1Output- 1.2

• % of area covered by forest;

• % of protected sub watershed area

• Forest area in hectors• Additional area of forest

plantation• Area of community forest• No. of CFUGs; Household

benefited through CF• Area of herb cultivation • FUGs with a climate

change planning • No. of leasehold forest• % of area covered by

conserved forest

Project /Program President Chure protection; Bio diversification; Forest

Devt and mgmt ; Plants study and research; REDD forestry and climate change; Community forest devt; Leasehold forest and animal devt ; Community devt & forest watershed protection; Forest research and survey project; National park project

Process for preparing the RFs

• Lead/Responsibility - Concerned Division (Chief), NPC

• Participation- Line ministries, DPs, NPC, MOF

• Time plan– 1st meeting - Bhadra 1st/2nd week– 2nd meeting- Bhadra last week– 1st draft - Ashoj 10th– Final - Ashoj, 20th

• Logistics- TA projects

• Backstopping support- M&E Division

Thank You