destination oregon: migration and economic growth

OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Destination Oregon:Migration and Economic Growth

Oregon Economic Forum

October 16th, 2014

Mark McMullen

State Economist


Migration to Oregon: Friend or Foe?

2

“I just got really irritated… I’m trying to build the economic diversification of the state, and I keep hearing this: “Aren’t you the guys that want us to visit but don’t stay”?”

Atiyeh: “ I want to go down there and blow up that damn sign”Cabinet: “Yeah, yeah, okay, governor.”Atiyeh: “No! I want to put dynamite under that thing and blow it up.”Cabinet: “You can’t do that, governor.”Atiyeh: “Yes, I can. I want to blow that thing up.”

“We want you to visit... Come again and again. But for heaven’s sake, don’t move here to live. Or if you do have to move in to live, don’t tell any of your neighbors where you are going.”

Governor Tom McCall Governor Vic Atiyeh

Sources: Oregon Historical Society, OPB/Mike Sherk

“The interests of Oregon for today and in the futuremust be protected from grasping wastrels of the land... unlimited and unregulated growth leads inexorably to a lowered quality of life.”

“Oregon, queen bee though she is, is not yet ready for the swarm”.


Deaths Now Outnumber Births In Many Counties

Wash

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Ma

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De

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La

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Um

atilla

Dougla

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Ya

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Kla

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Cla

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Cro

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Co

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Ore

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Ha

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y

Po

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Ja

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am

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Ba

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Wallo

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Gra

nt

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se

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ine

Multnom

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oo

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Lin

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Gill

iam

Sh

erm

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Whe

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r

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

1980 2010

Ratio of Births to Deaths: Oregon Counties


0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Population Share by Age, 2015Sources: Census, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Root-Setting Years U.S. Oregon ex PDX Portland Metro

Young Workers Choose Portland

4

Baker

Benton Clackamas

Clatsop

Columbia

Coos

Crook

Curry

Deschutes

Douglas

Gilliam

Grant

Harney

Hood River

Jackson

Jefferson

Josephine

Klamath

Lake

Lane

Lincoln

Linn

Malheur

Marion Morrow

Multnomah

Polk Sherman Tillamook

Umatilla

Union

Wallowa Wasco

Washington Wheeler

Yamhill

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Net

Mig

rati

on

fro

m O

ther

Sta

tes

Net Migration from Other Areas in Oregon

Net Migration of Tax Filers:Number per 1,000 Tax Returns, 1995-2011

Losses to otherstates and other Oregon counties

Losses to Oregon counties outstrip gains from otherstates

Gains from other states outstrip losses to Oregon counties

Gains from Oregon counties outstrip losses to other states

Gains from other states and other Oregon counties

Losses to other states outstrip gainsfrom Oregon counties

Clatsop

Coos Douglas

Jackson

Jefferson

Josephine

Klamath

Lane

Lincoln

Tillamook

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-10 -5 0 5

Net

Mig

rati

on

fro

m O

ther

Sta

tes



Losses to Oregon counties outstrip gains from otherstates




One of These Things Is Not Like the Others

7

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Corn Belt Rust Belt Timber Belt Corn Belt Rust Belt Timber Belt

Manufacturing and Farm JobsShare of Total

Population Growth1980-2012

Weathering Shocks

1980 2012


Retirees and Household Wealth

8

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Health Care CashContributions

Shar

e o

f To

tal E

xpen

dit

ure

s

Older Households Spend More On Health and Cash Contributions

55-6465-7475+

Source: BLS, Consumer Expenditure Survey

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

Expenditures Wealth

Household Finances for Top Half of the Income Distribution

50-64

65-74

75-84

85+

Source: Employee Benefit Research Institute

Clackamas

Columbia

Crook

Deschutes

Gilliam

Linn

Marion

Multnomah

Polk Sherman

Washington Wheeler

Yamhill

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Net

Mig

rati

on

fro

m O

ther

Sta

tes




Gains from Oregon counties outstrip losses to other states



Oregon’s Brain Gain

10

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Less than HS GraduatedHS

SomeCollege

Associate'sDegree

GraduatedCollege

Masters,Prof or PhD

Estimated Odds Ratios: Relative Probability of Moving Compared to Someone Without a Degree

In Migrants

Out Migrants

Logit Model Based on 2010-2012 ACS Data


Portland Is Still a Magnet for Young Workers

11

Austin

Buffalo

CharlotteDallas

Denver

DetroitHartford

Houston

Indianapolis

JacksonvilleMiami

Minneapolis

New Orleans

New York

Oklahoma City

Phoenix

Portland

Raleigh

Riverside

San Antonio

San Diego

San Francisco

San Jose

Seattle

Tampa

DC

Top 50 Avg

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75

25

-34

Yea

rs O

ldR

atio

of

In-m

igra

nts

to

Ou

t-m

igra

nts

Bachelor's or HigherRatio of In-migrants to Out-migrants

The Young and EducatedTop 50 MSAs, ACS 2010-12


Gains From CA Swamp Losses to WA

12

$(200)

$(100)

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

1992 1997 2002 2007

Portland Tri-County Area, $ millions

AGI Lost to WA AGI Gained From CA Net

$(200)

$(100)

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

1992 1997 2002 2007

Rest of Oregon, $ millions

AGI Lost to WA AGI Gained From CA Net

Net Adjusted Gross Income Among Migrants Source: IRS


Where Young People Come to Retire?

13

Logit Model Based on 2010-2012 ACS Data

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Employed Unemployed Not In Labor Force

Estimated Odds Ratios: Relative Probability of Moving Compared to Employed Adults

In Migrants

Out Migrants


The Outlook

14

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000Annual Oregon Population Growth

Natural Increase Net Migration Growth Rate, rhs

Forecast -->


15

For More Information

Standard Contact:

155 Cottage Street NE

Salem, OR 97301

(503) 378-3405

[email protected]

www.oregon.gov/das/oea

Social Media:

www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com

@OR_EconAnalysis

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