DET Module 5Products and DisplayTara Jensen 1 and Paula McCaslin 2

1 NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO 2 NOAA/GSD, Boulder, CO

Acknowledgements: HWT Spring Experiment Participants, HMT West Participants, CAPS SSEF Team, NOAA/ESRL HFIP Team, NOAA/ESRL LAPS Team, NOAA/ESRL ALPS Development Team, and others

MotivationGrowing demand for easy-to-

interpret ensemble products available to the end-user

Well constructed products allow more valuable evaluation of ensemble skill

Community needs means to explore and test product generation methods and display capabilities

Products Module GoalsModule should provide the ability

to specify techniques for◦Deriving information from the

ensemble◦Generating probabilistic products◦Providing decision support services◦And more…

Two areas:◦Product Generation◦Display Capabilities

Where Products Module Fits

Initial and Physics Pert.

Modules

Statistical PP Modules

Module 5:Products

Verification Module

Generation

Display

External Input(HMT, HWT, HFIP,

etc)

Pre-generated ProductsDET will leverage its collaborations* to gather algorithms for baseline pre-generated products *(with NCEP, ESRL, NCAR, AFWA, CAPS, NSSL, SPC, HPC, OHD and others)

Deterministic-style Products◦Simple mean, spread◦Weighted Mean◦Bias Corrected mean◦Probability Matching◦Maximum member

Probability Products  ◦Simple Ensemble Frequency◦Neighborhood Smoothed Ensemble

Frequency

Courtesy of Tara JensenWeb Display

DisplaysDET will also use its collaborations to gather algorithms and concepts for baseline displays

Spaghetti Plots  Postage StampsTime SeriesSoundingsVerification Plots

Courtesy of: Steve Weiss and Adam ClarkHWT Spring Experiment 2010(NAWIPS system)

Plot: One type of spaghetti (Simulated Radar Reflectivity)

Use: Determine potentialenvelope of storm path

Some Additional Display Options

Courtesy of: ALPS Development Team

Courtesy of: Paula McCaslinCourtesy of: Huiling Yuan& IsidoraJankov

Operational Display SystemsAWIPS for NWS/WFOs◦ Regional scale◦ Currently In Use to be replaced by AWIPS-II

N-AWIPS for NWS/Forecast Centers◦ CONUS scale◦ Currently In Use to be replaced by AWIPS-II ◦ Ensemble Display capability using stored procedures

CHPS for OHD and RFCs◦ CONUS scale◦ In Operational Testing◦ Ensemble Display capability

Operational Display Systems

AWIPS-II (Both Regional and National Scales)◦The future platform◦First phase to provide current

functionality (based on OB9) migrated to new architecture New Architecture: Service Oriented

Architecture Based on Java, Javascript, XML, *Note: Python

may be used Interaction with GFE Google Map zoom capability

◦Second phase will include extensions to new capability, including new display methods for ensemble data

Research Display Systems• ALPS (Developed at NOAA/ESRL/GSD)

• Based on AWIPS• Plans to transition functionality to

AWIPS-II research workstation• Dynamic calculation of standard

ensemble values like mean, max, spread• Spaghetti Plots with dynamic mean and

spread calculation• Color coding to support analysis of model

core clustering

Examples Research Display Systems

• Universities• University of Washington (UWME and UW EnKF)• Penn State (MREF)• OU CAPS (SSEF) etc…

• Government Labs• 3D method based on VIS5D (NCEP)• Human Derived Risk Forecasts (e.g. SPC)• Descision Support Probability Plots (FNMOC/AFWA)• Hurricane Track and Intensity Probabilities (e.g.

NHC, GFDL, and ESRL/GSD) etc…

Many are web-based displays ofPostage Stamps, Mean-Spread, Probability Fields

Web-based Display Systems

Facilitates interactive information, interoperability, user-centered designs, and collaboration

Researchers and Forecasters can evaluate products/displays without having an instance of the current workstation

Examples:◦ NOAA/NWS Doppler RIDGE (Radar Integrated Display

with Geospatial Elements) using Open Layers (http://radar.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2)

◦ UKMO's popular Weather Map using Google Maps Layers (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/weathermap/)

◦ ESRL Display for tropical cyclone prediction using Google Maps and JavaScript (http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks)

Courtesy of: Paula McCaslin

Courtesy of: Paula McCaslin

Example:ESRL Interactive Display for Ensemble Model Tropical Forecasts

BenchmarkUltimately - AWIPS II systemWhile AWIPS II is being

developed, proxy benchmarks to consider:◦NAWIPS◦ALPS◦NOAA Open Layers Web Solution

System RequirementsInput data:

◦ Standard model output formats◦ NetCDF◦ GRIB1 and 2

Output data: ◦ AWIPS-II NetCDF◦ CF-Compliant NetCDF (if different from

AWIPS-II NetCDF)◦ GRIB 1 and 2

Proposed Languages: ◦ Products: Python, Fortran77 and 90, C, C+

+ ◦ Display: Python, JavaScript, Java

Major TasksDetermine framework and optimal

languages for modularity and plug-compatibility with N-AWIPS and AWIPS-II

Develop generalized framework for:1. Product Generation2. Display

Test system using methods already developed

Evaluate alternative methodsSet up procedures tech transfer to

operational centers (i.e. NCEP, AFWA, NWS Offices and Centers, etc…).

Year 1-4 Module Goals1)Evaluate ensemble products for scientific

integrity and human impact.2)Develop interface to allow model output to

plug into decision support products.3)Develop interface to allow model output to

plug into operational platforms including NAWIPS and AWIPS II.

4)Evaluate methods for determining probability of occurrence at grid point (i.e. straight calculation, weighted calculation, applying a smoothing filter before or after, downscaling or upscaling probability).

5)Explore ways to make spaghetti plots more meaningful.

Tentative TimelineYear 1 – Planning and Initial

Investigation ◦Workshop feedback◦DTC collaborations with HMT, HWT,

HFIP, other◦Web / Literature Search

Year 2 – System Development and Testing

Year 3 – System Implemented◦Available for first extensive tests◦Planning for extension of capability

Year 4 – R2O discussions with NCEP, NWS, AFWA, etc…

Questions for Working GroupWhich product generation and display

methods show greatest promise?

Should we only be gearing toward AWIPS II or should we think beyond that to web-based displays for the research community?

At what point and how should we include social scientists in this portion of the testbed?