detailed proposal prepared for - hiddenlevers.com · financial planning. the core of what we do for...
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Detailed Proposal Prepared For:Johnny and June Cash
Prepared By: David RistauMay 15, 2018
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FINANCIAL PLANNING.
The core of what we do for high net worth clients, pension funds, corporations, retire-ment plans and charitable foundations is guiding them toward their financial goals.
WEALTH SERVICES.
Estate planning, life insurance, asset-backed lending and corporate retirement plans can all play an important role in the lives of our clients. We’ve coordinated with top providers in these areas so that we can incorporate these services in a comprehensive manner.
What We Do
ASSET MANAGEMENT.
We believe in low-cost, simple investment plans in a marketplace of near-limitless complexity. The strategies and solutions we utilize are selected specifically to address the objectives of each client.
INVESTMENT ADVICE.
We work directly with clients on a conflict-free, fee-only basis. We are held to a Fiduciary Standard as a registered investment advisory firm (RIA) and giving the right advice is the soul of our firm. No one pays us but you, we serve no other interest but those of our clients.
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Stress Test Summary
Portfolio 1: Bruce Wayne's Current Holdings($3.56M)
Portfolio 2: Bruce Wayne's Recommendation($3.53M)
The above "potential downside" number is the hypothetical loss the portfolio could experience based onthe potential downside scenario defined below. These scenarios are "what-if" economic simulationsdone on the portfolio.
Past CrashesThis scenario looks at historical crashes, andasks "What if this past crash happened today?"
Financial Crisis - Max Draw Down
2000 Nasdaq Cut in Half
October 1987 Market Crash
S&P ValuationWhat impact would a shift in the S&P 500cyclically-adjusted PE ratio have on theeconomy?
17 CAPE - Long Term Average
21 CAPE - Typical Recession
33 CAPE - Flatline
44 CAPE - All-time Highs
Portfolio 2
-25%*
-31%
-15%
-15%
Portfolio 1
-25%*
-38%
-24%
-17%
Portfolio 2
-24%
-11%
+4%
+14%
Portfolio 1
-32%
-20%
+3%
+21%
-38%-$1.37M
-31%-$1.11M
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New Fed HawksIf the new Fed proves to be more hawkish, howcould this impact equity markets?
Yield Curve Inversion
1987 Crash Repeat
Old Normal
BaselineThis scenario examines the impact ofstraightforward moves in economic indicators.
S&P 500 Down 20%
Treasury rates up 200bp
S&P 500 Up 10%
S&P 500 Up 20%
Rising Interest RatesWhat if short-term interest rates rise back towardlonger-term historical levels?
Commodities Inflation
Wage Inflation
Growth Driven
Portfolio 2
-15%
-8%
+4%
Portfolio 1
-27%
-15%
+3%
Portfolio 2
-4%
+3%
+7%
+11%
Portfolio 1
-12%
+2%
+8%
+14%
Portfolio 2
-5%
-1%
+4%
Portfolio 1
-11%
-5%
+2%
* The dashed line represents your risk tolerance.
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The Risk Profile questionnaire is designed to help evaluate your tolerance for risk. Your answers havebeen tallied to determine your risk score and category. Your advisor can use this information to designan appropriate investment portfolio. If you do not agree with this analysis, you may adjust the riskcategory on the Investment Policy Statement with your advisor. Your advisor will then develop anappropriate investment portfolio based on the revised information.
This risk score puts you in the Moderate category.
Risk Profile
ConservativeModerately
Conservative ModerateModeratelyAggressive Aggressive
Conservative: 1-10%Accepting of lower returns for a higher degree of stability
Seeks principal preservation and minimizing risk
Moderately Conservative: 11-20%Comfortable accepting a small degree of risk volatility
Accepting of lower returns in exchange for minimal losses
Moderate: 21-30%Accepting of moderate risk to seek higher long-term returns
Accepting of short-term losses of principal in exchange for long-term appreciation
Moderately Aggressive: 31-40%Willing to accept significant risk
May endure large losses in favor of potentially higher long-term returns
Aggressive: 41-50%Willing to accept substantial risk
Maximizing long-term returns is more important than protecting principal
25%
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Bruce Wayne's Current Holdings ($3.56M) Bruce Wayne's Recommendation ($3.53M)
64% Equities 34% Fixed Income<1% Alternative 2% Cash
42% Equities 26% Fixed Income21% Alternative 11% Cash
HoldingsMBLVX 21.07% BlackRock Large Cap Value B
Fund - Large Value
SPY 14.53% SPDR SP 500 ETF Fund - US Index
WIPIX 13.88% Wells Fargo Core Plus Bond Fund Class Institutional Fund - Intermediate-Term Bond
BND 13.86% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares Fund - Intermediate-Term Bond
GOOG 13.68% GOOGLE INC Tech Giants
VGT 5.95% Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund ETFShares
Fund - Specialty-Technology
FCNTX 5.76% Fidelity Contrafund Fund Fund - Large Growth
ABALX 5.69% American Funds American Balanced Fund Class A Fund - Moderate Allocation
LALDX 5.59% Lord Abbett Short Duration Income Fund Class A Fund - Short-Term Bond
HoldingsSPHD 16.24% Invesco SP 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF
Fund - Large Blend
DFP 15.83% Flaherty Crumrine Dynamic Preferred and IncomeFund
Fund - Convertible Securities
VYM 15.67% Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index Fund ETFShares
Fund - Large Value
BND 14.96% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF Shares Fund - Intermediate-Term Bond
9.54% US Dollar Cash Currencies
CPXAX 9.47% Cohen Steers Preferred Securities and Income FundInc. Class A
Fund - Preferred Securities
FPE 8.12% First Trust Preferred Securities and Income ETF Fund - Preferred Securities
VIG 5.56% Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund ETFShares
Fund - Large Blend
QQQ 4.05% Invesco QQQ Trust Fund - US Index
AAPL 0.56% Apple Inc. Tech Giants
Portfolio Allocations
64%Equities
42%Equities
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The information here explores other measures of risk. Please see disclosures for a glossary andexplanation of calculations.
Bruce Wayne's Current Holdings($3.56M)
Bruce Wayne's Recommendation($3.53M)
Forward-Looking Risk/Return
Historical Calcs Timeframe: October 4, 2008 to October 4, 2018
Risk Stats
Stress Test Risk
Correlation Risk
S&P 500 Beta
Performance Stats
Total Return
Max Drawdown
Volatility
Portfolio Stats
Yield
Sharpe Ratio
Sortino Ratio
Expenses
Expense Ratio
Fee % The hypothetical total return may not include all deducted fees (e.g. AUM fee) and charges inherent to investing.
Risk Statistics
Potential Downside: -$1.37M
Expected Return (5Yr): +$1.48M
Potential Downside: -$1.11M
Expected Return (5Yr): +$1.45M
-38% -31%
0.42 0.26
0.67 0.41
* 124.00% 75.67%
-15.70% -10.17%
7.09% 4.23%
1.41% 3.73%
0.81 0.75
0.90 0.78
0.52% 0.43%
N/A N/A*
-38% -31%
+42% +41%
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Performance history measures the return of each portfolio including dividends, and subtracting anyfees. It assumes the portfolio's allocation today has remained constant over the time period selected.The returns are backtested and not reflective of any actual traded account. Please refer to thedisclosure page for more information.
Timeframe: October 4, 2008 to October 4, 2018
Hypothetical Performance History
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Bruce Wayne's Current Holdings ($3.56M)
+124.00%
Bruce Wayne's Recommendation ($3.53M)
+75.67%
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The chart below shows the historical downside performance (in percentage terms) for each portfolio.The lowest point on the chart shows the maximum loss incurred by each portfolio over the depictedtimeframe. Please refer to the disclosures for more information.
Timeframe: October 4, 2008 to October 4, 2018
Hypothetical Drawdown Analysis
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
Bruce Wayne's Current Holdings ($3.56M)Peak: Sep-29-2008 Trough: Mar-02-2009
-15.70%
Bruce Wayne's Recommendation ($3.53M)Peak: Sep-29-2008 Trough: Mar-02-2009
-10.17%
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Portfolio 1 ($3.56M) Portfolio 2 ($3.56M*)
Portfolio 1: Bruce Wayne's CurrentHoldings ($3.56M)
Portfolio 2: Bruce Wayne'sRecommendation ($3.53M)
% $ % $Exp. Ratio 0.52% $18,344.73 0.43% $15,289.64AUM Fee N/A $0.00 N/A $0.00Total Fees 0.52% $18,344.73 0.43% $15,289.64
*For comparison purposes, both portfolios are depicted as having the same total value.
Bruce Wayne's Current Holdings ($3.56M) Symbol Name / Category Expense Ratio Cost Category Fee Range
Fee Attribution
Expense Analysis
MBLVX BlackRock Large Cap Value B Fund - Large Value
1.54 $11,550.00 0.02 1.54 1.99
WIPIX Wells Fargo Core Plus Bond FundClass Institutional
Fund - Intermediate-Term Bond
0.41 $2,025.00 0.00 0.41 1.66
FCNTX Fidelity Contrafund Fund Fund - Large Growth 0.74 $1,517.73 0.01 0.74 2.49
LALDX Lord Abbett Short Duration IncomeFund Class A
Fund - Short-Term Bond
0.59 $1,174.35 0.00 0.59 1.52
$18,345Total Fees
$15,290Total Fees
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Bruce Wayne's Recommendation ($3.53M) Symbol Name / Category Expense Ratio Cost Category Fee Range
ABALX American Funds American BalancedFund Class A
Fund - Moderate Allocation
0.57 $1,154.03 0.11 0.57 2.32
SPY SPDR SP 500 ETF Fund - US Index
0.09 $465.35 0.00 0.09 1.96
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market IndexFund ETF Shares
Fund - Intermediate-Term Bond
0.05 $246.59 0.00 0.05 1.66
VGT Vanguard Information Technology IndexFund ETF Shares
Fund - Specialty-Technology
0.10 $211.68 0.00 0.10 2.38
The following positions do not charge any fees: GOOG
DFP Flaherty Crumrine Dynamic Preferredand Income Fund
Fund - Convertible Securities
1.07 $6,029.23 0.20 1.07 2.42
CPXAX Cohen Steers Preferred Securities andIncome Fund Inc. Class A
Fund - Preferred Securities
1.16 $3,910.38 0.01 1.16 2.26
FPE First Trust Preferred Securities andIncome ETF
Fund - Preferred Securities
0.85 $2,456.63 0.01 0.85 2.26
SPHD Invesco SP 500 High Dividend LowVolatility ETF
Fund - Large Blend
0.30 $1,734.65 0.00 0.30 2.16
VYM Vanguard High Dividend Yield IndexFund ETF Shares
Fund - Large Value
0.08 $446.26 0.02 0.08 1.99
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust Fund - US Index 0.20 $288.09 0.00 0.20 1.96
BND Vanguard Total Bond Market IndexFund ETF Shares
Fund - Intermediate-Term Bond
0.05 $266.19 0.00 0.05 1.66
VIG Vanguard Dividend Appreciation IndexFund ETF Shares
Fund - Large Blend
0.08 $158.22 0.00 0.08 2.16
The following positions do not charge any fees: AAPL, US Dollar Cash
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Style Analysis
Market Cap Analysis
Style Analysis
Bruce Wayne's Current Holdings ($3.56M)
Bruce Wayne's Recommendation ($3.53M)
Value
Large 23
Blend
18
Growth
46
Mid 5 3 3
Small 2 0 0
Value
Large 46
Blend
25
Growth
12
Mid 10 5 0
Small 0 1 0
Small Mid Large
2.7%11.8%
85.6%
1%
15.8%
83.1%
Market Cap Analysis Market CapReturns
Past 90Years
Past 30Years
Past 10Years
Large-CapStocks
S&P 500 Index
9.7% 7.1% 4.6%
Mid-Cap Stocks Russell Midcap Index
10.2% 8.7% 5.7%
Small-CapStocks
S&P 600 Small CapIndex
11.9% 7.4% 6.8%
Value Blend Growth
29.4%
21.9%
48.7%
56.2%
30.9%
12.9%
Style Analysis
Style ReturnsPast 30Years
Past 20Years
Past 10Years
Large Value Index Russell 1000 Value Index
6.5% 4.7% 3.3%
Large Blend Index Russell 1000 Index
7.1% 5.2% 5.1%
Large GrowthIndex
Russell 1000 GrowthIndex
7.3% 4.9% 7.5%
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Sector Analysis Bruce Wayne's Current Holdings ($3.56M)
Bruce Wayne's Recommendation ($3.53M)
ConsumerDiscretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Healthcare
Industrials
Materials
Real Estate
Technology
Telecommunications
Utilities
7.1
3.3
3.5
11
7.1
5.2
1.51.5
1.11.1
57.7
1.31.3
11
7.8
13.8
7.7
12.1
9.3
11.8
2.6
5.7
13.9
4.7
10.6
ConsumerDiscretionary
ConsumerStaples
Energy
Financials
Healthcare
Industrials
Materials
Real Estate
InformationTechnology
Telecom
Utilities
as % of equityallocation
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Fixed Income Analysis Portfolio 1: Bruce Wayne's Current Holdings ($3.56M)
Portfolio 2: Bruce Wayne's Recommendation ($3.53M)
Long Intermediate Short
37.4% 38%
24.6%
65.3%
21.9%
12.8%
Term Analysis
Municipal Corporate Government
2%
46.7%51.3%
0.4%
58.8%
40.8%
Type Analysis
Interest Rate Risk Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2
Average Yield 2.91% 4.19%
Average Duration 5.3 5.09
Credit Quality Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2
AAA 58.22% 46.54%
AA 3.59% 2.34%
A 12.21% 8.95%
BBB 17.81% 26.19%
BB 4.16% 9.24%
B 3.45% 1.87%
Below B / Unrated 0.57% 4.88%
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Geographic Analysis Portfolio 1: Bruce Wayne's Current Holdings ($3.56M)
Portfolio 2: Bruce Wayne's Recommendation ($3.53M)
Portfolio 1 ($3.56M) Portfolio 2 ($3.53M)
Domestic Developed Emerging Markets
98.7%
1% 0.3%
99.3%
0.6% 0.1%
Development TypeHoldings ByRegion Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2
North America 98.9% 99.1%
Latin America 0% 0%
Europe 0.7% 0.6%
Asia Pacific 0.4% 0.4%
Middle East +Africa
0% 0%
98.9% vs 99.1%
0% vs 0%
0.7% vs 0.6%0.4% vs
0.4%0% vs
0%
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Annualized Returns for Bruce Wayne's Current Holdings ($3.56M)
Symbol NameExpenseRatio YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years
Since Inception
Ann. Return Volatility Drawdown
MBLVX BlackRock Large CapValue B
1.54 0.00% 4.61% 11.50% 9.68% 8.05% 6.13% Dec-20-1999
16.23% -55.19%
FCNTX Fidelity Contrafund Fund 0.74 16.75% 23.94% 18.55% 15.54% 13.95% 11.86% Jan-01-1980
17.88% -47.98%
LALDX Lord Abbett ShortDuration Income FundClass A
0.59 -0.23% -0.04% 1.72% 1.77% 4.06% 4.05% Nov-01-1993
2.61% -8.68%
ABALX American FundsAmerican Balanced FundClass A
0.57 3.92% 8.24% 10.57% 9.17% 9.69% 8.11% Jan-01-1986
10.98% -39.26%
WIPIX Wells Fargo Core PlusBond Fund ClassInstitutional
0.41 -3.95% -3.37% 2.25% 2.92% 4.77% 4.68% Jul-18-2008
2.72% -5.96%
VGT Vanguard InformationTechnology Index FundETF Shares
0.10 23.57% 33.56% 27.23% 21.77% 18.00% 11.07% Jan-26-2004
16.26% -51.69%
SPY SPDR SP 500 ETF 0.09 9.32% 15.96% 16.12% 13.64% 12.36% 9.63% Jan-25-1993
14.79% -53.89%
BND Vanguard Total BondMarket Index Fund ETFShares
0.05 -2.69% -2.31% 0.76% 1.71% 3.19% 3.49% Apr-09-2007
3.22% -4.84%
GOOG GOOGLE INC N/A 14.96% 25.60% 24.22% 22.54% 20.12% 24.58% Aug-16-2004
26.81% -61.23%
Total (Since Jul-18-2008) 4.37% 8.52% 10.90% 9.07% 8.39% 7.57% 7.09% -15.70%
Annualized Returns for Bruce Wayne's Recommendation ($3.53M)
Symbol NameExpenseRatio YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years
Since Inception
Ann. Return Volatility Drawdown
CPXAX Cohen Steers PreferredSecurities and IncomeFund Inc. Class A
1.16 -5.37% -4.38% 4.03% 5.72% 7.42% May-03-2010
3.96% -7.51%
DFP Flaherty CrumrineDynamic Preferred andIncome Fund
1.07 -14.44% -12.63% 7.28% 9.06% 5.38% May-24-2013
8.85% -18.34%
FPE First Trust PreferredSecurities and IncomeETF
0.85 -4.85% -4.33% 4.70% 6.02% 3.91% Feb-12-2013
3.90% -12.31%
SPHD Invesco SP 500 HighDividend Low VolatilityETF
0.30 -2.43% 1.61% 12.36% 12.24% 12.40% Oct-26-2012
8.33% -8.83%
Historical Returns
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Annualized Returns for Bruce Wayne's Recommendation ($3.53M)
Symbol NameExpenseRatio YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years
Since Inception
Ann. Return Volatility Drawdown
QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust 0.20 19.38% 27.73% 22.27% 19.91% 18.90% 7.57% Mar-08-1999
23.89% -82.69%
VYM Vanguard High DividendYield Index Fund ETFShares
0.08 2.65% 8.41% 14.05% 11.80% 11.21% 7.81% Nov-13-2006
13.56% -55.80%
VIG Vanguard DividendAppreciation Index FundETF Shares
0.08 8.36% 16.66% 15.76% 11.82% 11.53% 8.54% May-01-2006
12.09% -45.24%
BND Vanguard Total BondMarket Index Fund ETFShares
0.05 -2.69% -2.31% 0.76% 1.71% 3.19% 3.49% Apr-09-2007
3.22% -4.84%
AAPL Apple Inc. N/A 38.71% 52.50% 30.36% 32.59% 37.90% 27.56% Dec-08-1980
102.70% -86.51%
Total (Since May-24-2013) -2.56% 0.10% 7.72% 7.44% 6.08% 4.23% -10.17%
The values here are calculated from each investment's reported data and price history. Past performance is not indicative of futureresults. Investing always involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success. Pleaserefer to the disclosure page for more information on these calculations.
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Client Acknowledgement
Client Signature Date Client Signature Date
Wealth Advisor Signature Date Wealth Advisor Signature Date
I understand that this report is only a guide to building an overall financial solution, and recognize that there are otherfactors to consider when making portfolio decisions. The purpose of this report is to establish a clear understandingbetween the client(s) and the advisor as to the investment guidelines and goals for the investor's assets. Please reviewthe underlying assumptions carefully. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and principal values fluctuatewith changing market conditions.The information presented in this report is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Theresults presented here are hypothetical and may not reflect the actual growth of investments. The data presented mayexclude commissions, sales charges or fees which, if included, would have had a negative effect on the annual returns.Investing in securities involves risk of loss that clients should be prepared to bear. It should be assumed that investmentslisted in this report are not FDIC insured.Investors should consider an investment's objective, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing. In the caseof ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) and mutual funds, the associated prospectus contains this and other importantinformation which should be considered before investing. The advisor will assist the client(s) in making investmentdecisions based in individual needs, objectives, and risk tolerance. The client(s) is/are responsible for providing validinformation on their financial status, risk tolerance, goals, and must notify the advisor of any changes.I hereby affirm that I have reviewed the information presented in this report. I acknowledge that the informationaccurately reflects my investment objectives and goals. On a timely basis, I will inform the advisor(s), in writing, of anymaterial changes in our financial situation and/or my investment objectives, which might affect the investment of myassets.
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The survey below was taken on August 14, 2018.
Survey
Goals
1. What is the main goal for your investments? Steadily grow my assets
2. I expect to pull money from my investments in: 11-20 years
Financials
1. Select your current net worth (excluding primaryresidence):
500K-1M
2. Please indicate your current annual householdincome:
200,001-350,000
3. Please select the most complex investment youhave owned, or would be comfortable owning:
Individual Stocks or Bonds
Risk Tolerance
1. Which best describes your tolerance to risk? I seek above-average growth in my investments,accepting above-average risk of loss
2. This chart shows the potential 1-year risk / returntradeoff of a $100,000 investment. Which would youchoose?
+9,000
-5,000
3. Imagine that an investment you own lost 30% ofits value in 3 days. What would you do?
Sell a portion of my shares
4. You make an investment, planning to hold it for 5years. It then loses 20% in its first year. How do youreact?
I would wait to see how it continues to perform
5. The following charts show the potentialperformance of an investment over 10 years. Whichwould you choose?
S&P 500 Investment
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Disclosures
Excluded Tickers: CPXAX, SPHD, DFP, FPE : Excluded from charts and risk measures because they haveinsufficient data for this timeframe. Not excluded from stress testing and expected return. Important:The projections generated by HiddenLevers regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical innature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results. Assumptions on rates of returnand standard deviation used in this analysis are based on historical return data for each security and asset class. Pastperformance is no guarantee of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time. You cannot invest directlyin a benchmark or index. Index results do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges incurred when makinginvestments. All calculations in this proposal are based on data from the previous day's market close. The previous dayrefers to the day before the date printed on the cover page and in the header of each page.For individual fixed income instruments (bond CUSIPS, preferred shares, CDs, etc.), HiddenLevers backfills performancedata. For symbols recognized as a US Treasury, the Barclays 3-7 Year Treasury Bond Index is used. For municipalbonds, the Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index is used. For preferred equities, iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock datais used. For other fixed income instruments, the Barclays US Aggregate Index is used. These backfills affect calculationson the Risk Statistics, Hypothetical Drawdown Comparison, Hypothetical Performance History, and Historical Returnssections. Your advisor may change these backfills if they deem it appropriate.
Methodology Used to Generate this Report:Definitions:Beta - Beta measures the relationship between an investment and a major market index (the S&P 500 is used in thisreport). A beta of 1.0 means that a 1% rise in the S&P 500 could lead to a 1% rise in the investment, while a beta of -0.5means that a 1% rise in the S&P 500 could lead to a 0.5% drop in the investment. The beta for an investment isdetermined by using regression analysis to measure the relationship between the returns of the investment and thereturns of the S&P 500. HiddenLevers uses 10 years of data to measure the beta for an investment. For investments withless than 10 years of history, all available historical data is used.Category Fee Range - The range is determined by taking the average fee of all funds in a category, and then determiningthe standard deviation of fees from that average. The low end of the fee range is set to be two standard deviations belowthe average, and the high end of the fee range is set to be two standard deviations above the average.Cross Correlations - HiddenLevers measures the correlation between every pair of investments in the portfolio. Thecorrelation results can vary between 1 and -1, where a correlation of 1 means that two investments move togetherperfectly over time, and a correlation of -1 means that two investments move in opposite directions over time.Expected Return - This is the 5-year total return of the portfolio based on the stress test scenarios selected for the report.The system takes the weighted average of the economic scenarios to calculate a one-year return, which is thencompounded to determine the five-year return.Lever - HiddenLevers tracks different levers (economic indicators) like CPI, US GDP Growth, and oil prices, and usesmovements in these levers to define economic scenarios.Lever Impact - The lever impacts section describes the impact of different economic levers on the portfolio as a whole.An S&P lever impact of 1.0, for example, means that a 1% rise in the S&P 500 is projected to lead to a 1% rise in theportfolio. HiddenLevers similarly measures the impact of a range of economic levers on the portfolio.Maximum Drawdown (MDD) - this is measured as the largest percentage drop in a position during the timeframe ofmeasurement.
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Scenario - A scenario is a representation of a major macro-economic or geopolitical event which has the potential toimpact investment returns. HiddenLevers models scenarios as a set of up-or-down movements in any of the economicindicators (levers) in the system.Scenario Impacts - Using HiddenLevers' stress testing model, an upside and downside impact are projected for theportfolio in each scenario. Most scenarios are modeled with multiple potential outcomes, with both positive, neutral, andnegative outcomes considered. The best and worst projections are derived from running the different scenario outcomesagainst the portfolio in HiddenLevers model. The scenario-based stress testing model is discussed in detail in the Methodsection below.Sharpe Ratio - The Sharpe Ratio is the a measure for calculating risk-adjusted return, and this ratio has become theindustry standard for such calculations. It was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe. The Sharpe ratio is theaverage return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. HiddenLevers calculates the Sharperatio by subtracting short term (1M) T-bill rates from the portfolio's annualized total return, and then dividing by theportfolio's volatility (annualized standard deviation).Sortino Ratio - The Sortino Ratio subtracts the risk-free rate of return form the portfolio's return, and then divides that bythe downside deviation.Stress Test Risk/Reward - The Stress Test Risk/Reward compares the portfolio's potential downside risk against the 5year expected return of the portfolio. Downside Risk: This is the maximum downside calculated across all of thescenarios included in the report. 5 Year Expected Return: HiddenLevers first calculates the expected return for theportfolio by calculating the one-year weighted average expected return across all included scenarios. The one-yearexpected return is then compounded to obtain a 5 year return estimate. Historically, major downside events occur roughlytwice a decade, making 5 years an appropriate timeframe for comparison of long term returns and downside scenariorisk.Volatility - HiddenLevers measures volatility as the annualized standard deviation of an investment or portfolio, expressedin percentage terms. The standard deviation is calculated using weekly data points, and is then annualized by multiplyingby the square-root of 52 (number of periods in one year).Potential Downside - Potential Downside is calculated by taking the account value and multiplying by the most potentialdownside seen in the portfolio through stress tests listed in the stress test section.Total Return - Calculation of returns of all securities inside of portfolio over the timeframe selected for proposal. Thecalculation assumes the same portfolio for entire timeframe rebalanced weekly. Yield and expense ratio for each securityis included in this calculation.Expense Ratio - The expense ratio is a weighted average of the most recently disclosed net expense ratio for securitiesin the portfolio.Yield - The weighted average of the current yield (data updated monthly) for securities in the portfolio.
Method:This report describes one or more potential scenarios, and shows the HiddenLevers-model based performancefor the portfolio in each scenario. The steps below are performed to generate the projections:Scenario -> Levers -> Assets (Stocks etc) -> Portfolio ReturnA scenario pushes levers up or down, which in turn push assets up or down, which in turn impact a portfolio's modeledreturn in the scenario. As defined above, a scenario is modeled as a set of movements in the levers. Regression analysisis used to determine the historical (prior 10 year) relationship between each lever and each asset in the portfolio. Themodel is then run 2500 times for each scenario/portfolio combination. In each iteration, the model projects the returns foreach asset using the historical regression coefficients for each lever, and using the scenario assumptions on how eachlever will change. The model varies the regression coefficients for each iteration using a normal distribution around theirmean (similar to a Monte Carlo model's varying of expected returns across iterations), and aggregates the results of the
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2500 iterations to find a mean portfolio return with a 95% confidence interval. The confidence interval is displayed on thereport as "margin of error" for each scenario.
Limitations and Assumptions:Each scenario discussed in this report is defined by the economic assumptions listed in the Macro Impact section of eachscenario page. HiddenLevers does not guarantee that any particular scenario will occur as modeled in this report.HiddenLevers uses historical analysis in the creation of this report, and past performance is not a guarantee of futureresults. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by Hidden Levers regarding the likelihood of variousinvestment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of futureresults. The return assumptions in HiddenLevers are not reflective of any specific product, and do not include any fees orexpenses that may be incurred by investing in specific products. The actual returns of a specific product may be more orless than the returns used in HiddenLevers. It is not possible to directly invest in an index. Financial forecasts, rates ofreturn, risk, inflation, and other assumptions may be used as the basis for illustrations. They should not be considered aguarantee of future performance or a guarantee of achieving overall financial objectives. Past performance is not aguarantee or a predictor of future results of either the indices or any particular investment. HiddenLevers offers severalmethods of calculating results, each of which provides one outcome from a wide range of possible outcomes. All resultsin this Report are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not guarantees of future results.All results use simplifying assumptions that may not completely or accurately reflect the specific circumstances. No Planor Report has the ability to accurately predict the future. As investment returns, inflation, taxes, and other economicconditions vary from the Hidden Levers assumptions, your actual results will vary (perhaps significantly) from thosepresented in this Report. The results are calculated over many years, small changes can create large differences infuture results. You should use this Report to help you focus on the factors that are most important to you. This Reportdoes not provide legal, tax, or accounting advice. Before making decisions with legal, tax, or accounting ramifications,you should consult appropriate professionals for advice that is specific to your situation. This information is provided foryour convenience, but should not be used as a substitute for your account's monthly statements and trade confirmations.It has been gathered from information provided by you and other sources believed to be reliable. Investors in MutualFunds and ETFs should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the investment companycarefully before investing. The prospectus and, if available, the summary prospectus contain this and other importantinformation about the investment company. You can obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus from your financialrepresentative. Read carefully before investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only andare not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) maybe appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is noguarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Assumed rates of return andstandard deviation assumptions used in the HiddenLevers analysis are based on historical return data for the benchmarkindex for the asset class. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guaranteeof future results. HiddenLevers is not affiliated with Raymond James & Associates or Raymond James FinancialServices. Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC Raymond James FinancialServices, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment products are: not deposits, not FDIC/NCUA insured, not insured by anygovernment agency, not bank guaranteed, subject to risk and may lose value.
GxWorks LLC, maker of software used to create this report, makes the following disclosures:GxWorks LLC's (GxWorks) mission is to educate and provide useful macro risk analytical tools to help provide data toassist with the investment decision process. GxWorks relies on financial data, including stock prices, provided by thirdparties. The data is believed to be accurate, but GxWorks does not guarantee or warranty this data. This report isintended only as an informational tool for you and your investment advisor, and should not in any way be construed asinvestment advice by GxWorks. If you make investment decisions based on information you receive in connection withthis report, you do so at your own risk and neither GxWorks nor its employees will be liable for any losses that you mayincur. GxWorks, its employees, officers or affiliates, in some instances, may have long or short positions or holdings in
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the securities or other related investments of companies mentioned herein. Users of this should conduct their ownindependent research and due diligence and consult with their investment advisor before making any investmentdecisions or recommendations.
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