detecting and documenting biodiversity dynamics in the face of global change

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Detecting and Documenting Biodiversity Dynamics in the Face of Global Change A. Townsend Peterson University of Kansas

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Page 1: Detecting and Documenting Biodiversity Dynamics in the Face of Global Change

Detecting and Documenting Biodiversity Dynamics in the Face

of Global Change

A. Townsend PetersonUniversity of Kansas

Page 2: Detecting and Documenting Biodiversity Dynamics in the Face of Global Change

Studying Drivers of Biodiversity Change• Many potential drivers: land use change, direct

exploitation, climate change, sea level change…

• Anticipate future change: requires present-day model, and future projections of drivers

• Document change to date: requires detailed before-and-after views of distributions, abundances, and/or conservation status

• We will explore both of these approaches…

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Point-based Distributional Data

• Definition: data records placing a particular species at a particular location at a particular point in time

• Primary data – this is the basis of all other distributional data

• Abundant – millions of specimens, probably billions of observations are ‘out there’

• Major initiatives – ORNIS, eBird, GBIF, etc.• Dimensionless – a point has no area; biodiversity

‘points’ have only a basement level of uncertainty• Useful at any resolution above the basement level

of uncertainty

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DISTRIBUTED BIODIVERSITY DATABASES

REMIB

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PROJECTIONS TO FUTURE CLIMATE CONDITIONS…

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Ecological Niche Modeling

• Empirical, data-driven search for associations between occurrence and environment

• Significant predictive ability in hundreds of studies

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ADD EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL CHANGE

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Sea Level Rise and Coastline Effects

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US Effects

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COMPLEMENT vs OVERLAP?

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MEASURING AVIFAUNAL TURNOVER IN RECENT HISTORICAL TIMES…

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Well-sampled Recent Grid Squares

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Species Gains

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Species Losses

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Overall Species Turnover

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Significant Drivers of Turnover

• Observed precipitation change – NO significant effect

• Observed temperature change – YES – strong significant effects

• Human impact on landscapes – NO significant effect

• BUT – results are coarse in nature …

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Misantla, Veracruz

Valley of Mexico

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Methods IIICheck coincidence between the two

sources

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Quiscalus palustris

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Sandhill CraneGrus canadensisPresent-day distribution

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"Oldmexicocity" by Juan Gómez de Trasmonte, 1628 (d. 17th century) - Mexico Maxico. Licensed under Public Domain via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Oldmexicocity.jpg#/media/File:Oldmexicocity.jpg

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Misantla, Veracruz

• 2012 thesis in the Facultad de Ciencias, UNAM

• Site well known and well characterized from early ornithological collections…

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Misantla 2001-2012

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Misantla 1850-present

"Battle of Veracruz" by Adolphe Jean-Baptiste Bayot - Originally published in The War Between the United States and Mexico, Illustrated, 1851. Licensed under Public Domain via Commons - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Battle_of_Veracruz.jpg#/media/File:Battle_of_Veracruz.jpg

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Observed Change … Summary

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Can we do this in India?

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What’s Missing?

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BIODIVERSITY INFORMATICS: MAKING PRIMARY BIODIVERSITY DATA AVAILABLE

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Biodiversity Informatics Training Curriculum Courses

• Data Capture• Biodiversity Inventories• Data Cleaning• Data Publishing• Biodiversity Data Analysis• Species Descriptions• Using R• Using QGIS• Possibly modules on

Refine, EstimateS (under development)

• Public Health Applications

• Ecological Niche Modeling

• National Biodiversity Diagnoses

• Conservation Implementation

• Building Biodiversity Informatics Institutions

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Project Webpage

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Communications - Facebook

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Interchange – Scientific Journal

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BITC Version 1.1

• The curriculum is basically complete– 500+ videos make up the present curriculum

version, covering topics from data capture to building institutions

• The curriculum is available– online via the project webpage– in pdf format via Biodiversity Informatics (soon to

appear)– on USB keys and in DVD formats (by request)

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Summary• Biodiversity is highly dynamic, but the natural

dynamics are augmented by anthropogenic change in recent decades

• Studying biodiversity change is complex:– Future projections are hypothetical and hard to test– Assessments of change already realized are highly

dependent on before-and-after datasets• Creativity is key in making these studies possible• Access to abundant and comprehensive data is

crucial to any advances