determining future supply and demand for teachers
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Centre for Education Statistics Elementary-Secondary Section. Determining future supply and demand for teachers. Ginette Gervais Isabelle Thony. Presentation content. The demography of Elementary/Secondary Educational Staff in Canada’s Schools - Supply and Demand Model - Supply Factors - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Determining future supply and demand for teachers
Ginette Gervais
Isabelle Thony
Centre for Education Statistics
Elementary-Secondary Section
Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section 2
Presentation content
• The demography of Elementary/Secondary Educational Staff in Canada’s Schools
- Supply and Demand Model
- Supply Factors
- Demand Factors
- Preliminary Results
- Future Issues
Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section 3
Simple model of teacher supply and demand
• Similar to the Cohort Component Method– The model takes the population distributed by
age at a base date and carries it forward in time, cohort by cohort, on the basis of separate allowances for attrition.
Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section 4
Simple model of teacher supply and demand
• supply = current complement of teachers + graduates - retirements + net migration
• demand = school-aged population
x participation rate / pupil-educator ratio
• supply - demand = surplus or shortage
Supply factors• Current complement of teachers
– Existing teaching staff– full-time public elementary-secondary educators*
• Entries to profession– Teacher education graduates*– Qualified new immigrants– Career changes (other qualified people)– Reentrants
• Departures from profession– Attrition:
– retirements*, emigration*, career changes– disability/deaths, leave and resignation
– Termination– Policy (I.e. retirement benefit levels)
Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section
Relationship of Job to education and use of acquired skills on the job for 1995 university graduates employed full-time in June 1997, by field of study
Source: National Graduate Survey
Field of study
Total (all fields of study) 53 66 27 5 2
Education 70 68 26 4 ** 2 **
Elementary/secondary teacher training 75 68 24 -- -- Non-teaching field 65 68 29 -- -- Curriculum specialization 57 61 35 -- -- Education administration 76 81 18 * -- -- Education foundations -- -- -- -- -- Education psychology 73 68 -- -- -- Guidance and counselling 54 * 77 -- -- -- Measurements and evaluation -- -- -- -- -- School librarianship -- -- -- -- -- Other non-teaching fields 76 53 ** -- -- -- Physical education, kinesiology, recreation, etc. 45 68 28 * -- -- Kinesiology, human kinetics and kinanthropology -- -- -- -- -- Physical education 50 * 69 23 * -- -- Recreation -- -- -- -- -- Other teaching 71 67 -- -- -- Higher education teacher training 82 75 -- -- -- Kindergarten teacher training -- -- -- -- --
Skills notused at
all(percent)
Used skillsto someextent
Used skillsverylittle
Job closelyrelated toeducation
Used skillsto a great
extent
Immigrant educators landing in Nova Scotia by the top ten country of last permanent residence, 1986-2000
Country Total Annual Average U.S.A. 20 3 LEBANON 11 2 ENGLAND 8 2 EL SALVADOR 6 2 SAUDI ARABIA 6 2 FRANCE 4 1 BOSNIA-HERCEGOVINA 4 2 POLAND 3 1 VIETNAM 3 2 GERMANY 3 2
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada
Immigrant educators landing in Ontario by the top ten country of last
permanent residence, 1986-2000
Country Total Annual Average POLAND 797 61 U.S.A 387 32 HONG KONG 279 20 JAMAICA 242 20 ENGLAND 240 17 LEBANON 233 19 VIETNAM 153 11 TRINIDAD & TOBAGO 153 12 EL SALVADOR 151 12 SOUTH AFRICA 137 11
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada
Immigrant educators landing in British Columbia by the top ten country of last permanent residence, 1986-2000
Country Total Average U.S.A. 140 12 HONG KONG 111 9 ENGLAND 95 7 SOUTH AFRICA 65 5 PHILIPPINES 53 5 POLAND 51 4 CHINA 44 4 AUSTRALIA 39 4 EL SALVADOR 36 3 TAIWAN 32 3
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada
Median age at retirement by industry,and change over time*
Source: Labour force* According to last job prior to retirement.
Year 1991-1994 1995-1999
ChangeBetweenPeriods
All industries 62.5 61.2 -1.3Education services 61.4 58.0 -3.4Health and Social Services 62.8 60.6 -2.2Public Administrations 60.0 58.1 -1.9
Educators in Canada 1998 to 2010based on to 2 projection scenarios
Source: Centre for Education Statistics
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Surplus/Shortage (75% of graduates teach)
Surplus/Shortage (100% of graduates teach)
Educators in Nova Scotia 1998 to 2010based on to 2 projection scenarios
Source: Centre for Education Statistics
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Surplus/Shortage (75% of graduates teach)
Surplus/Shortage (100% of graduates teach)
Educators in Ontario 1998 to 2010based on to 2 projection scenarios
Source: Centre for Education Statistics
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Surplus/Shortage (75% of graduates teach)
Surplus/Shortage (100% of graduates teach)
Educators in British Columbia 1998 to 2010based on to 2 projection scenarios
Source: Centre for Education Statistics
-9000
-8000
-7000
-6000
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Surplus/Shortage (75% of graduates teach)
Surplus/Shortage (100% of graduates teach)
Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section 15
Demand factors
• Expansion/contraction– Enrolment*– School-aged population*
• Policy (i.e. class sizes)– Pupil-educator ratio*
• Technology
Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section 16
A work in progress
• Other components of supply and demand that could eventually be incorporated:– School level– Subject taught– Educators by staff position– Gender– Public vs. private sector– Rural area vs. urban area– Large schools vs. small schools
• Micro data simulation model• Input welcome
Determining future supply and demand for teachers
Ginette Gervais, (613) 951-3289e-mail: [email protected]
Isabelle Thony, (613) 951-0935e-mail: [email protected]
Fax number: (613) 951-4441
Centre for Education Statistics
Elementary-Secondary Section
Centre for Education Statistics, Elementary-Secondary Section 18
• Cohort-Component Method:• A population forecast is a projection in which the assumptions are considered to yield a realistic picture of
the probable future development of a population. Although the projection period is variable, short term forecasts are the rule, as the margin of error to which forecasts are subject increases considerably as the length of the forecast's period increases. The most frequently used method of projection is the component method or cohort-component method which takes the population distributed by age and sex at a base date and carries it forward in time, cohort by cohort, on the basis of separate allowances for fertility, mortality and migration. When matrix algebra is used for component projections, the method is sometimes called matrix method of projection.
• Sabbatical Leave:• is an authorized period of leave without pay, but with an allowance in lieu of salary, for a specified duration
(normally twelve (12) months or less) during which time eligible UTs, while remaining employees, shall be relieved of their normal teaching and administrative obligations as a means of providing them with an opportunity to pursue research or other scholarly activities thereby improving their knowledge of a particular discipline and enhancing their professional competence.