determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic co 2 uptake rate by the oceans. dick...
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![Page 1: Determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic CO 2 uptake rate by the oceans. Dick Feely (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO) Chris Sabine (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d5e5503460f94a3ea6a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic CO2 uptake rate by
the oceans.
• Dick Feely (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)
• Chris Sabine (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)
• Rolf Sonnerup (JISAO/PMEL)
• Paul Quay (UW/JISAO)
![Page 2: Determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic CO 2 uptake rate by the oceans. Dick Feely (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO) Chris Sabine (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d5e5503460f94a3ea6a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
JISAO/PMEL/UW Collaboration
• Observational Program (Feely, Sabine, Quay)
– Measuring pCO2, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), alkalinity, 13C/12C of DIC (δ13C)
– Using research cruises, volunteer observing ships (VOS), and moorings
• Modeling Program (Sonnerup)
– Using GCMs to simulate anthropogenic CO2, 13C/12C perturbations
![Page 3: Determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic CO 2 uptake rate by the oceans. Dick Feely (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO) Chris Sabine (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d5e5503460f94a3ea6a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Estimates of Global CO2 Sources & Sinks
Table 1. Global CO2 budgets (in PgC/yr) for the last twodecades based upon atmospheric CO2 and O2 dataa
Source or Sink 1980 to 1990 1990 to 1997
CO2 Emissions (Fossil fuel, Cement) 5.4 ± 0.3 6.4 ± 0.4
Atmospheric Increase 3.3 ± 0.1 3.2 ± 0.1
Ocean-Atmosphere Flux -1.9 ± 0.6 -1.7 ± 0.5
Land-Atmosphere Flux -0.2 ± 0.7 -1.4 ± 0.6
aPositive values represent fluxes to the atmosphere; negative values represent uptake away from the
atmosphere. The land-atmosphere flux represents the net balance of a positive term due to land usechanges and a negative term due to a residual carbon sink. Source: Prentice et al. (2001) IPCCReport
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Scientific Objectives• Estimate the rate of increase in the amount of
anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean. (research cruises)
• Estimate the net air-sea flux of CO2. (VOS+moorings)
• Determine whether the US coastal ocean is a source or sink for CO2. (research cruises + moorings)
• Separate natural variations from anthropogenic change in
ocean CO2. (data synthesis + models)
• Determine how changes in physical, chemical and biological processes affect the CO2 uptake rate. (models)
![Page 5: Determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic CO 2 uptake rate by the oceans. Dick Feely (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO) Chris Sabine (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d5e5503460f94a3ea6a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
CLIVAR/CO2 Repeat Hydrography Program
We mus understand the temporal and spatial changes of the global ocean carbon system and the feedbacks to the climate system.
![Page 6: Determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic CO 2 uptake rate by the oceans. Dick Feely (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO) Chris Sabine (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d5e5503460f94a3ea6a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
VOS Cruise Tracks (IOCCP)
![Page 7: Determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic CO 2 uptake rate by the oceans. Dick Feely (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO) Chris Sabine (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d5e5503460f94a3ea6a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Space and time coverage of ocean carbon observing networks
time
space1 m2 1 km2 GlobeOcean
BasinRegional(106 km2)
centuries
decadal
Inter-annual
seasonal
daily
Remote sensing
hourly
Process Studies
Repeat Trans-basin
Sections
VOS
surface pCO2
Shipboard
Time-Series
Moored
Time-Series
time
space1 m2 1 km2 GlobeOcean
BasinRegional(106 km2)
centuries
decadal
Inter-annual
seasonal
daily
Remote sensing
hourly
Process Studies
Repeat Trans-basin
Sections
VOS
surface pCO2
Shipboard
Time-Series
Moored
Time-Series
![Page 8: Determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic CO 2 uptake rate by the oceans. Dick Feely (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO) Chris Sabine (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d5e5503460f94a3ea6a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Rate of CO2 Increase
• Atmospheric CO2 is currently at 375 ppm (vs pre-industrial 280 ppm) and has been increasing by about 2 ppm per year over the last decade.
• Surface ocean in equilibrium with atmosphere would increase CO2 by 10 μmole/kg per decade.
~ 0.5% of background DIC concentration.
![Page 9: Determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic CO 2 uptake rate by the oceans. Dick Feely (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO) Chris Sabine (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d5e5503460f94a3ea6a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Rate of 13C/12C (δ13C) decrease
• The δ13C of atmospheric CO2 today is –8.1 ‰ (versus –6.4 ‰ in pre-industrial era) and decreasing at 0.2 ‰ per decade.
- δ13C of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion is -28 ‰.
• Surface ocean δ13C in equilibrium with atmosphere would decrease at 0.2 ‰ per decade.
• The magnitude of oceanic δ13C decrease is proportional to anthropogenic CO2 uptake.
![Page 10: Determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic CO 2 uptake rate by the oceans. Dick Feely (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO) Chris Sabine (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d5e5503460f94a3ea6a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Because the ocean mixes slowly, half of the anthropogenic CO2 stored in the ocean is found in the upper 10% of the ocean.
Average penetration
depth 1000 m
50% of 50% of anthropogenic anthropogenic
COCO22 in the in the ocean is ocean is
shallower than shallower than 400 m400 m
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-40
-20
0
20
40
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Geosecs (1973)
P16N (1991)
ENP81 (1981)
P15N (1994)
P2 (1994)
NOPP (1999)P1 (1999)
CO2 in the mixed layer1.3 ± 0.19 µmol kg-1 yr -1
r2=0.95n=7
-1
Feely et al. (submitted)
DIC increase in the mixed layer of the North Pacific Ocean
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Seasonal and interannual changes in DIC and δ13C at Stn ALOHA (23°N 153°W)
![Page 13: Determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic CO 2 uptake rate by the oceans. Dick Feely (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO) Chris Sabine (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d5e5503460f94a3ea6a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Princeton MOM vs Observations
![Page 14: Determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic CO 2 uptake rate by the oceans. Dick Feely (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO) Chris Sabine (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d5e5503460f94a3ea6a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Changes in DIC and δ13C between 1993 and 2003 in the N. Atlantic (Repeat of A16N)
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Latitude
del1
3C (o
/oo)
July 1993
July 2003
0
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Latitude
DIC
coul
o (u
mol
/kg)
July 1993
July 2003
2003WHOI
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GCM Simulated 13C Change (2003-1993)
(‰)
![Page 16: Determining the magnitude and variability of the anthropogenic CO 2 uptake rate by the oceans. Dick Feely (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO) Chris Sabine (NOAA/PMEL/JISAO)](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649d5e5503460f94a3ea6a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)