Deterrence/Deterrence/brinkmanshipbrinkmanship

Nuclear deterrenceNuclear deterrence

• Development of nuclear bombs is occurs in Development of nuclear bombs is occurs in both the United States and Germany during both the United States and Germany during World War TwoWorld War Two

• The space race that accompanied the Cold The space race that accompanied the Cold War made these devices even more deadlyWar made these devices even more deadly• Sputnik (1957)Sputnik (1957)• Race for the moonRace for the moon

1952 – US develops hydrogen bomb

1953 – USSR develops hydrogen bomb

Mutual Assured Destruction – if you hit me, Mutual Assured Destruction – if you hit me, I hit you so no one wins! I hit you so no one wins!

• ICBM: Intercontinental Ballistic Missile – can fly from ICBM: Intercontinental Ballistic Missile – can fly from one continent to another in 30 minutesone continent to another in 30 minutes

• NORAD: North American Aerospace Defense – NORAD: North American Aerospace Defense – created to deal with the threat of ICBMscreated to deal with the threat of ICBMs• DEW Line – Distant Early Warning system: line of radar DEW Line – Distant Early Warning system: line of radar

stations along the Canadian north to warn in case of stations along the Canadian north to warn in case of missile launchmissile launch

• Headquarters: Colorado (under a mountain!!)Headquarters: Colorado (under a mountain!!)

Five major powers currently have Five major powers currently have thousands of nuclear warheadsthousands of nuclear warheads

Country Estimated # of warheads (2006)

USA 5,535 (peak 1965 31,642)

Russia 8,800 (peak 1986 40, 723)

France 350

Great Britain 200

China 400

Pakistan 60

India 140

North Korea 10

Israel 200

Russians

BrinkmanshipBrinkmanship

Confrontation between the United States, Confrontation between the United States, Soviet Union, and Cuba – ranks along with Soviet Union, and Cuba – ranks along with the Berlin Blockade as one of the major the Berlin Blockade as one of the major confrontations of the Cold Warconfrontations of the Cold War

It is the classic example of brinkmanship, It is the classic example of brinkmanship, and the closest the world has ever come and the closest the world has ever come to a nuclear warto a nuclear war

Russians call it the Caribbean Crisis Russians call it the Caribbean Crisis because it actually occurred in the because it actually occurred in the Caribbean Ocean, while Cubans call it the Caribbean Ocean, while Cubans call it the October Crisis, as to distinguish it from October Crisis, as to distinguish it from other crisis they have had with the United other crisis they have had with the United StatesStates

• Cuba becomes a socialist nation – looks for Cuba becomes a socialist nation – looks for protection and trade agreements with the protection and trade agreements with the USSR (only happy to oblige in order to create USSR (only happy to oblige in order to create a sphere of influence near the US to a sphere of influence near the US to counteract US presence in NATO nations in counteract US presence in NATO nations in Europe) Europe)

• McCarthyism and Bay of Pigs fiasco (1961) McCarthyism and Bay of Pigs fiasco (1961) plays a role in Kennedy’s reaction to Cuban plays a role in Kennedy’s reaction to Cuban decisionsdecisions

The Crisis – Thirteen DaysThe Crisis – Thirteen Days• October 8, 1962 – U2 spy plane spots missile bases October 8, 1962 – U2 spy plane spots missile bases

in Cubain Cuba

• Executive Committee of the National Security Executive Committee of the National Security Council (ExComm) quickly discussed five courses of Council (ExComm) quickly discussed five courses of action:action:• do nothing do nothing • use diplomatic pressure to get the Soviet Union use diplomatic pressure to get the Soviet Union

to remove the missiles to remove the missiles • an air attack on the missiles an air attack on the missiles • a full military invasion a full military invasion • the naval blockade of Cuba, which was redefined as a the naval blockade of Cuba, which was redefined as a

more restrictive quarantine.more restrictive quarantine.• Unanimously, the Joint Chiefs of Staff agreed that a Unanimously, the Joint Chiefs of Staff agreed that a

full-scale attack and invasion was the only solution. full-scale attack and invasion was the only solution. Kennedy was skeptical and decided on a quarantineKennedy was skeptical and decided on a quarantine

• Quarantine : “To halt this offensive buildup, a strict Quarantine : “To halt this offensive buildup, a strict quarantine on all offensive military equipment quarantine on all offensive military equipment under shipment to Cuba is being initiated. All ships under shipment to Cuba is being initiated. All ships of any kind of any kind bound for Cuba from whatever nation bound for Cuba from whatever nation and port will, if found to contain cargoes of and port will, if found to contain cargoes of offensive weapons, be turned back.” (Kennedy)offensive weapons, be turned back.” (Kennedy)• semantics – a blockade would be an act of war, semantics – a blockade would be an act of war,

quarantine is unclearquarantine is unclear

• Many secret diplomatic meetings and telegrams Many secret diplomatic meetings and telegrams back and forth created some confusion back and forth created some confusion

• Confrontations in the UN security council Confrontations in the UN security council (Soviets kept avoiding the direct questions of the (Soviets kept avoiding the direct questions of the US ambassador to the UN “I’ll wait until hell US ambassador to the UN “I’ll wait until hell freezes over”)freezes over”)

““Mr. President, we and you ought Mr. President, we and you ought not now to pull on the ends of the not now to pull on the ends of the rope in which you have tied the rope in which you have tied the

knot of war, because the more the knot of war, because the more the two of us pull, the tighter the knot two of us pull, the tighter the knot will be tied…let us take measures will be tied…let us take measures to untie that knot.” Khrushchevto untie that knot.” Khrushchev

The Crisis Ends – détente The Crisis Ends – détente

• October 28 – a final agreement is established with help October 28 – a final agreement is established with help from the United Nations – the missiles in Cuba would be from the United Nations – the missiles in Cuba would be removed in exchange for the removal of missiles in Turkeyremoved in exchange for the removal of missiles in Turkey

• Khrushchev loses face in this conflict and is Khrushchev loses face in this conflict and is eventually pushed out of power eventually pushed out of power

• 1963 - A hotline from Moscow to Washington was created 1963 - A hotline from Moscow to Washington was created to prevent the confusion caused by to prevent the confusion caused by diplomatic channels not going directly diplomatic channels not going directly between the leaders, and the Partial between the leaders, and the Partial Test Ban treaty took a step towards slowing down the Test Ban treaty took a step towards slowing down the nuclear arms racenuclear arms race

• The value of using diplomacy was illustrated by this eventThe value of using diplomacy was illustrated by this event• “ “We were eyeball to eyeball and the other guy just blinked” – We were eyeball to eyeball and the other guy just blinked” –

diplomacy or brinkmanship?diplomacy or brinkmanship?

Summary of “Thirteen Summary of “Thirteen Days”Days”