developing a global tsunami warning and mitigation system: from commitment to action patricio a....
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Developing a Global Tsunami Warning
and Mitigation System:From Commitment to Action
Patricio A. Bernal, Executive Secretary of IOC, ADG UNESCOLaura Kong, Director, IOC ITICrev Sri Lanka Training, 3-7 April 2006
EWC-III, Scientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, 28 March 2006
UNESCAP Thailand Trust Fund BriefingBangkok, 28 March 2006
“We cannot stop natural calamities, but we can and must
better equip individuals and communities to withstand them.”
UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan
A Call to Action … 26 December 2004
250,000 dead, 500,000 injured 1 million displaced
$8 billion in damages
Plate TectonicsActive subducting plate boundaries
• 1965 - response to 1960 Pacific-wide Chile tsunamiIOC established ICG/ITSU (now ICG/PTWS)Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Pacific Tsunami Warning and Mitigation Systemsuccessful & operational
Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System
• PTWC - Operational HQ• ITIC - Oversee and monitor effectiveness,
Facilitate to establish new systems, preparedness, outreach
IOC ICG/PTWS
28 member States (2005):Australia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, DemocraticPeople's Republic of Korea, Ecuador, El Salvador, Fiji, France,Guatemala, Indonesia, Japan,
Mexico, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Singapore, Thailand, United States, Samoa, Vietnam.
• Successful Operational Tsunami Warning System > 40 yrs• Successful international scientific program• Pacific Basin monitoring of seismicity and sea levels• Direct humanitarian aim• Mitigate tsunami effects - save lives/property
IOC ICG/PTWS
PTWC Global Seismic Network
26 December 2004
200,000
Somalia - 4308,000
16,000
35,000
Myanmar - 100
Tanzania - 10
Seychelles - 3Kenya - 1
80
Maldives - 108
11 countries ~250,000 deaths1 million displaced
• 250,000 dead - Nations of the region act • IOC invited to lead TSUNAMI EWS establishment• UN/OCHA Project to ISDR started March 2005, $11m
• core system implementation - IOC lead• integrated risk knowledge• public awareness and education• community level approaches• project coordination
IOC in UN partnership
ISDR
IOC
WMO
Warning guidanceHazard assessmentMitigation
Communication (GTS)Multi-hazardPublic awareness
Preparedness
IOC: Core system implementation
• Governance– 2 intergovernmental coordination mtgs
• Capacity building– Expert advisory missions– Startup training programme
• Core system observational network– Interim advisory information service– Operational sea-level and seismic network
for tsunami monitoring
What is the System?
The system must be:
• Fully owned by Indian Ocean countries
• Based on international and multilateral cooperation
• Based on open and free data exchange
• Protect all countries in Indian Ocean
• Transparent and accountable to all countries
How does it function?
• Based on joint operation of international networks of detection connected with national tsunami warning centres
• High-level commitment by country with UN governance provided under the IOC
• Each nation is responsible for issuing warnings in their territory and for protecting its own population.
• National centres must have strong links with emergency preparedness authorities (national, provincial and local)
Indian Ocean Where are we now?
• A single system planned
All countries of the Indian Ocean participate• Interim Tsunami Advisory Information from centres
in Hawaii and Tokyo. • Natl 7/24 Tsunami Focal Points in 26 nations• Governance - UN/IOC through ICG/IOTWS• Full scope of task recognized:
multi-nation (28), multi-year (>3 to 10+ yrs) • Joint UN implementation:
IOC, WMO, ISDR, UNDP, UN-ESCAP
• March & April 2005: Considering the devastating tsunami on Dec 26th 2004, two International Coordination meetings on the Development of an IO TWS took place in Paris and Mauritius
Time schedule and milestones in 2005
Ja F M A M J Jul A S O N D
Implementation Interim System IOC-JMA-PTWC
16 National Assessment Missions WMO/ISDR/IOC/ADRC/JMA/UNESCAP
•March 3-8: UNESCO/IOC 1st Regional Technical Coordination Meeting, Paris•April 14-16: UNESCO/IOC 2nd Regional Coordination Meeting, Mauritius•June 21: IOC General Assembly, Paris: Formal establishment of ICG/IOTWS•August 3-5: ICG/IOTWS-I , Perth: focus on technical aspects•December 14-16: ICG/IOTWS-II, Hyderabad: recommendations & commitments
Sea level stations being deployed
Initial System for July 2006
Based on Existing:• Network of 26 (of 29) National Information Centres [7/24]• Tsunami Focal Points [7/24]Slowly evolving into a• Network of Tsunami Warning Centres in charge of National Mitigation Plans (Assessment, Warning, Preparedness)
Need to develop Regional Instrumental Networks:• Improved Seismographic network (faster and more accurate detection of earthquakes through denser network, better real-time source characterization)• Real-time network of sea-level stations (faster detection of tsunamis through denser network)
Core IOTWS Seismographic Network Agreed on Stations
Operational Planned
May-Sept, 2005: 16 missions
To be scheduled, 2006:
6 missions
Maldives, Djibouti,East Timor, Iran,
South Africa, Yemen
Not requesting: Australia, France,
India, Singapore, United Kingdom
IOTWS: National Assessment and Plans
Nat.AssesNational
Plan Nat.AssesNational
Plan
AUSTRALIA Not required Available MYANMAR Done Required
BANGLADESH Done Required OMAN Done Required
COMORES Done Required PAKISTAN Done Required
DJIBOUTI 2006 Required TIMOR (EAST) 2006 Required
FRANCE Not required Available SAUDI ARABIA Not requested
INDIA Not required Available SEYCHELLES Done Required
INDONESIA Done Available SINGAPORE Not required Available
IRAN 2006 Required SOMALIA Done Required
KENYA Done Required SOUTH AFRICA 2006 Required
MADAGASCAR Done Required SRI LANKA Done Required
MALAYSIA Done Available UAE Not requested
MALDIVES 2006 Required TANZANIA Done Required
MAURITIUS Done Required THAILAND Done Required
MOZAMBIQUE Done Required UK Not required
YEMEN 2006 Required
Questionnaire sections5 Tsunami Mitigation Categories:
• Contact information
• Authority and coordination
• Warnings and tsunami monitoring
• Warning response and Emergency Action / Preparedness
• Hazard and risks
• Community/Individual awareness and preparedness
• Tsunami response to 28 march 2005 M8.5 earthquake off Sumatra, Indonesia
• Overall enhancement of national capabilities to mitigate impact of hazards (WMO)
Summary: Regional CB Needs
• Assistance - harmonize existing practices / protocolsData collection, monitoring, evaluation, warning commInternational standards and interoperability
• Assistance to establish real-time regional / local seismic and sea level networks with real-time data acquisition, display, and analysis to support the monitoring / detection
• Equipment upgrade and capacity building in Global Telecommunication System (GTS) to NMS
• Training and software for numerical modeling Inundation maps, Evaluation of hazards / vulnerability
Summary: Regional CB Needs
• Educational modules and training - multi-hazards Targeted various stakeholders, incl school curriculum
• Equipment upgrades / capacity building utilization of satellite information - Multi-hazard EWS incl tsunami
• Disseminate marine warnings
• Strengthen GIS capabilities and applications to disaster management to aid in planning, emergency response, and post-disaster recovery
• Electronic awareness materials Adaptable for language, culture, local commTsunamis and other disasters
The Challenge
• We essentially know what is needed at the country level in 16 countries
Work for rest of countries will be completed in 2006 (6 countries)
• ICG is requesting a Comprehensive IOTWS Plan, including the Country level
• Therefore, we need the development of the National Plans at the Country level.
EarthquakEarthquake Tsunamie Tsunami
Tsunami Tsunami Warning Warning CenterCenter
International - Regional Framework
National Warning System Public Awareness
National Government
Local Government
PeoplePeople
Mass Media
Where is Evacuation Route?
What is Tsunami?
TSUNAMI Early Warning Overview
Cabinet Office Japan
• Hazard Risk Assessment• Warning Guidance• Mitigation - Preparedness
A perfect warning will be useless
if people do not know what to do
in case of an emergency
Awareness and preparedness at the country level is essential
ICG/IOTWS Working Groups
WG 1: Seismic Measurements, Data Collection, and Exchange
WG 2: Sea Level Data Collection and Exchanges, including Deep-Ocean Tsunami Detection
WG 3: Risk assessment
WG 4: Modeling, Forecasting and Scenario Development
WG 5: Interoperable Advisory and Warning Centres
WG 6 (proposed): Mitigation, Preparedness and Response, incl NGO
WG 6: Mitigation, Preparedness and Response
• MS ensure development / DM officials participate in ICG / WG, incl Red Cross/Red Crescent, NGOs, community groups, private sector
• Develop overall strategy document based on initial ISDR initial draft – consistent with IOC core system implementation & WG TORs
ISDR to continue to work with IOC & partners
• National level, coordination with downstream stakeholders facilitated through DRR national platforms (Hyogo Framework 2005-2015) to ensure broader based ownership
Mitigation, Preparedness and Response: Terms of Reference
Focus national efforts for effective tsunami warning:
• Promote, mainstream good practices into development planning / practice: policies / institutions, sectors, risk mitigation, recovery
• Promote, support engagement of NTWC / experts in national platforms for DRR, all-hazard integration, DM
• Provide of guidelines, tools, best practices to DM sector: public information, education, training, communications, evacuation planning / drills, emergency mgmt
• Communicate ICG WG results to development and DM communities and vice versa (needs to WG)
:STAKEHOLDER COORDINATION
• June 21-30, 2005: the 23rd IOC General Assembly decided resolutions on the establishment of a global and three regional Intergovernmental Coordination Groups on TEWS (XXIII-12 to XXXIII-15) for
- the Indian Ocean (ICG/IOTWS)
- the Caribbean (ICG/CARTWS)
- the NE Atlantic and Med (ICG/NEAMTWS)
Three more regions to coordinate
• 03-05 Aug 2005: ICG/IOTWS-I, Perth• 21-22 Nov 2005: ICG/NEAMTWS-I, Rome• 14-16 Dec 2005: ICG/IOTWS-II, Hyderabad• 10-12 Jan 2006: ICG/CARTWS-I, Barbadosand to come:
• May 2006: ICG/ITSU-XXI, Melbourne• May 2006: ICG/NEAMTWS-II, Nice• July/August 2006: ICG/IOTWS-III, Bali• Dec 2006: ICG/CARTWS-II, Venezuela
Intergovernmental Coordination Group meetings
Beyond immediate response: Multi-Hazard Platforms
• Storm – surges (IOC, WMO, JCOMM)
• Tropical storms (WMO, JCOMM)
• Improving Storm and cyclones track forecasts (IOC, WMO, JCOMM)
• Ice Hazard (IOC, WMO, JCOMM)
• Oil Spills (IOC, WMO, UNEP)
For further information see:
http://ioc.unesco.org/indotsunami
http://ioc3.unesco.org/neamtws
http://ioc3.unesco.org/cartws
http://ioc3.unesco.org/ptws
International Tsunami Information Centre
http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic
IOC Executive Secretary: Dr. Patricio BernalIOC Executive Secretary: Dr. Patricio Bernal IOC Tsunami Unit: Dr. Uli Wolf Masahiro Yamamoto Bernardo Aliaga
IOC ITIC / Tsunami Unit: Dr. Laura Kong IOC ITIC / Tsunami Unit: Dr. Laura Kong PTWS Secretariat: [email protected] PTWS Secretariat: [email protected]
www.tsunamiwave.info www.tsunamiwave.info Chair, Vice-Chair: Chile, CanadaChair, Vice-Chair: Chile, Canada
IOTWS: ioc.unesco.org/indotsunamiIOTWS: ioc.unesco.org/indotsunami Secretariat: IOC Regional Office, PerthSecretariat: IOC Regional Office, Perth
Chair: IndiaChair: India Vice-Chairs: Indonesia, MauritiusVice-Chairs: Indonesia, Mauritius
IOC Activities – 2006
• Coordinated Implementation Plan - partners• ICG/IOTWS WGs (coordinate, facilitate,
synergize across other regions)• Upgrade/install GLOSS and other sea level,
seismic network - ongoing• TsunamiTeacher - May 2006
electronic, dynamic training modules + resources (Media, Education, Public/Private Sector)
• Customizeable awareness materials Adapt for language, culture, local communityIOC-ADRC Educational Curricula - Thailand, April 2006
IOC Activities –2006
Capacity Building / Training- Seismology – USGS, FDSN/IRIS GSN, AfricaArray
Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Thailand, Pakistan, India, Maldives, East Africa /West IO
- Numerical Modeling – Expert scientists, I - Sources / Propagation, May (Malaysia, Belgium)II - Inundation / Evacuation, Sept-Dec
- TsunamiTeacher Workshops – up tp 8 countries, May- Tsunami Warning Operations and Emergency Response -
Indonesia, Thailand, Mozambique, Mauritius, etc- RANET Communications - warning centre to local
communities - May 2006- Risk and vulnerability assessment - use of GIS tools
ESRI - IOC, April, 2006
ICG/PTWS - South China Sea
• Synergies with ICG/IOTWS WGs
• Interim Tsunami Advisory Information ServiceJMA NW Pacific Tsunami Advisory Center expandsClose coordination with PTWCStart 1 April 2006
• IOC-Malaysia MOSTI, 27-28 April, Kuala LumpurRoundtable Symposium on Earthquake and Tsunami Hazards and Risks
• Pacific-wide Tsunami Drill, 16-17 May 2006PTWC initiated2 sources - Philippine (Pacific) and ChileUNDP to sponsor observers to Philippines