Developing and applying scenarios of biological invasions for the 21st century

Alien ScenariosGuillaume Latombe, Bernd Lenzner, Franz EsslDivision of Conservation Biology, Vegetation and Landscape Ecology,Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, University of Vienna, Rennweg 14, 1030 Vienna, Austria

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First global scenarios for the 21st century

Policies, management and science

• Global quantitative models of future alien species numbers• Future economic cost of biological invasion• Effectiveness of EU regulation• Alien species traits and future impacts• Biological invasions in the global South

Drivers toolboxSelection of highly important drivers of future biological invasions and associated variables

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All taxa Plants Ants

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Birds Mammals Spiders

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Cross-country narratives and relationship with number of established alien species

DRIVERCATEGORY

DRIVERS General concepts important for IAS

RATIONALE OF THE DRIVER FOR IASVARIABLES

Various ways to quantify the corre-sponding driver

POLITICS AND DEMOGRAPH-

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International pol-itics, governance and legislation

Global political context has no direct causal impact on invasions, but strongly underlies (directly or indirectly) most other direct drivers. Voice and Accountability Control of Corruption Political Globalisation Index

Social andpolitical stability By being moving or displaced from one country to another, people transport IAS with them. The more people, the more movements and the more stoaways.

Political Stability and Absence of Violence Interpersonal Globalisation Index Population size

ECONOMY AND TRADE

Economic growth Socio-economic activities are correlated with a wide range of changes of the environment (e.g. resource and energy uses, human mobility, land use) that may be relevant for facilitating biological invasions.

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Global trade Trade is the main cause of IAS are introductions outside of their native range. Trade Globalisation IndexENVIRONMEN-

TAL AND NATURAL

RESOURCES

Land use change Changes in land-use (incl. the intentional use of IAS) and land-use intensity may cause losses of ecosystems, degradation of used ecosystems, increase fragmentation and disturbance of ecosystems, and alter resource dynamics; all these are factors that may favour biological invasions and reduce biotic resistance.

Human appropriation of net primary production

Global human influence index

LIFESTYLE AND VALUES

Lifetstyle andvalues

The awareness and values of the citizens, stakeholders, business, NGOs and politicians towards biological invasions is important for establishing and implementing IAS policies and management. Includes also the views of people who are opposing actions on IAS on ethical grounds (e.g. animal-right movements; cute IAS species are likely less managed because they generate empathy) or because they consider it unwarranted.

Educational attainment distribution Renewable electricity output Cultural Globalisation Index Information Globalisation Index

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Technology and in-novation

Technological advancements enable to actively implement biocontrol and management measures. They can also favour other drivers such as pressure on natural resources and land use, which can favour biological invasions Global Innovation Index

SOCIETALRESPONSE

Legislation andmanagement Legislation and the resulting management actions are necessary to prevent the transport, introduction, establishment and spread of IAS

Governmnent effectiveness Regulatory Quality Rule of Law

Contact: guillaume.latombe@univie.ac.at; franz.essl@univie.ac.at

The key elements and key steps for developing a framework for scenar-ios and models of biological inva-sions. The figure is composed of a conceptual layer (circles) that describe the stepwise scenario development process from initial data assessment and mobilization to storyline con-struction, model quantification, and, finally, to full scenarios of biological invasions. The grey circle (top right) resembles the potential option space of biological invasions in the future and the explored space by four exemplary individual alien species scenarios (S1–S4). The boxes depict components that influence the development process or that might be influenced by it. The ar-rows between the conceptual and in-fluencing properties indicate strong in-teractions. The grey dashed arrow and box represent the potential long-term aim of fully integrated environmental assessment scenarios including all relevant parts of the Earth’s system.

Four broad Alien Scenario Narratives (ASN) can be defined ac-cording to two axes: willingness to act and possibility to act. From these four narratives, four extreme global scenarios can be explored.Lenzner B, Leclere D, Franklin O , Seebens H, Roura-Pascual N, Obersteiner M , Dullinger S, & Essl F (2019). A

Framework for Global Twenty-First Century Scenarios and Models of Biological Invasions. BioScience.DOI:10.1093/biosci/biz070.

Latombe et al (in prep.)

Latombe et al (in prep.)

122 countries organized in a two-dimensional space defined by drivers of biological invasions.

Relationships between the number of established species in a country (for different taxa) and its coordinates in the two-diemension space defined by drivers of biological invasions.

This research was funded through the 2017-2018 Belmont Forum and BiodivERsA joint call for research proposals, under the BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND programme, and with the funding organisations Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, Agence Nation-ale de la Recherche, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación Y Universidades, and Agencia Estatal de Investigación .

alien-scenarios.org

Status quo

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Integr ated en vironmental assessment sc enarios

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Alien species data availability- Species data (e.g. richness, abundance)- Impact data (e.g. environmental, economic, livelihoods)- Spatial, temporal resolution

Policy, economic interests and valuation sy stems- Political agendas (IPCC, IPBES)- Economic agendas (WTO, OPEC)- Societal interests- Cultural interests- (...)

Relevant initiativ es and scenario frameworks- Climate change (IPCC)- Global trade (WTO)- Demography (Wittgenstein Centre)- Biodiversty (IPBES)- Ecosystem services (IPBES)- (...)

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External resourcesActions to link external resources to the framework itemsCore element of the framework

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RegionEUnon EUMiddle EastAsiaNorthern AfricaEastern AfricaWestern AfricaSouthern AfricaOceaniaNorthern AmericaCentral AmericaSouthern AmericaCarribean

Cultural globalisationEducation

International politicsand governance

Economic growthScience and technology

Legislation and management

Environmental awareness

Land use

Global trade

Social and political stability

Population density

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