developing human system modules for climate models jessie cherry, iarc/arsc@uaf
TRANSCRIPT
Developing Human System Modules for Climate Models
Jessie Cherry, IARC/ARSC@UAF
Typical treatment of human/resource dimensions
• Offline model runs• Use of projections and scenarios• Qualitative characterizations of the future
Climate Change Planning
Walsh & Chapman:
PRISM downscaled multi-model projections of temperature and precipitation for AK under various scenarios of Greenhouse Gas emissions
Problems with this approach
• Creates a strong disconnect between the physical modeling community and the climate impacts community
• Makes it more difficult to provide decision support to stakeholders
• Could be missing important feedbacks between human agents and the climate system
Approaches to CCIAV
IPCC, 2007
Integrated Assessment
Definition: any model which combines scientific and socio-economic aspects of climate change primarily for the purpose of assessing policy options for climate change control (Kelly & Kolstad, 1998)
Integrated Assessment Modeling
McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005
Integrated Assessment Models
McGuffie & Henderson-Sellers, 2005
Characterizing the Future
IPCC, 2007
Proposal:
Code Human System Modules directly into a new Arctic System Model to make it truly ‘next generation’ and ‘system’
Example of Human System Module
Cherry
Goal is to be model independent; work with CCSM and other models/ couplers
Some Human Dimensions in the Arctic :
• Oil and Gas Recovery (& spill transport)• Freshwater Supply• Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geo)• Commercial, Subsistence, & Sport Fishing• Infrastructure• Coastal Erosion• Subsistence Harvest of Furbearers, Caribou• Marine Transport
Decision-Support
• What is that?• Turban defines it as "an interactive, flexible,
and adaptable computer-based information system, especially developed for supporting the solution of a non-structured management problem for improved decision making. It utilizes data, provides an easy-to-use interface, and allows for the decision maker's own insights.” (Wikipedia)
https://rsgis.crrel.usace.army.mil/aedis/
Example of Climate-Related Decision Support
Goals of a Pilot Project
• Create one or more model-independent modules for socio-economic decision-making
• Test in AK, but should have international applications at least across pan-Arctic
• Create cutting edge model, i.e. one that includes human dimension directly
Interactions between Module components/Climate model
• Need not occur at every model time step
• One or two way coupling may be appropriate depending on the system
BSIERPFEAST Higher trophic
level model
NPZ-B-DLower trophic
level
ROMSPhysical
Oceanography
Economic/ecological model
Climate scenarios
BSIERP Vertically Integrated models
Nest
ed m
odelsB
EST
Infrastructure
Impact of Climate Change on Infrastructure study done for Alaska by Peter Larsen and collaborators
Flow Chart of Model Processes
Climate Projections
NCARUAF GI
Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas
$
Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas
Graphs Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)
Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20
Tables
Depr.Matrix
Denali
DRM
DCCED
DNR
Others
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
ISER Public Infrastructure Study
Wind Farm Parameterization for WRFAdams & Keith
Modification of the MYJ PBL scheme
Similar work being done commercially by 3TIER, AER, others
MMS-WRF winds 1
MMS-WRF winds 2
MMS-WRF winds 3
MMS-WRF winds 4
Hydropower AEA
AEA Energy Atlas, 2007
Ship track
Readiness? If we don’t start to integrate these models they may never
become ready…
Data management may be the biggest challenge
May need to modify existing couplers/design a human dimension standard
May need to design ‘community’ decision support tool
Readiness:
• Oil and Gas Recovery (& spill transport)• Freshwater Supply• Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geo)• Commercial, Subsistence & Sport Fishing• Infrastructure• Coastal Erosion• Subsistence Harvest of Furbearers, Caribou• Marine Transport (& emissions)
A few of the many challenges
• Data acquisition and management (international)
• Models appropriate for the pan-Arctic domain
• Decision support interface
• Representing uncertainty quantitatively (including inter-temporal discount rate)
Why code human systems directly into models?
• There are (nearly) appropriate existing models
• We have the computing resources
• Bridges the gaps between physical system and human dimension
• It’s interesting work at the frontiers of research!!!
Thanks
?
Communicating uncertainty
New Scientific Methodology?
Funtowicz & Ravetz, in Ecological Economics, 1991
Arctic human dimensions
• Oil and Gas Module (spill transport)
• Rural Resilience (wind power potential)
• Coastal Erosion (evolving coastline)
• Freshwater (hydropower, water supply)
• Marine Fisheries (Bering ecosystem)
• Marine Transport (ice cover trajectories)
Ammonium
Euphausiids
Neocalanus
SmallPhytoplankton
Detritus
Smallmicrozooplankton
Largemicrozooplankton
Nitrate
LargePhytoplankton
Pseudocalanus
Iron
14 component ModelNPZD-Benthos
PredationLosses
BenthosBenthicInfauna
Benthic Detritus
BSIERPLower Trophic Level
Ecosystem Model