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Futron Corporation • 7315 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 900W • Bethesda, Maryland 20814
Phone 301-913-9372 • Fax 301-913-9475 • www.futron.com
Better Decisions…Better Future
Developing Japanese
Space Competitiveness:
Perspectives from Futron’s 2009 Space
Competitiveness Index (SCI)
Keynote Address to Japan’s Institute for Unmanned Space Experiment Free Flyer (USEF) Seventh Space Industry Symposium
December 9, 2009
Better Decisions…Better Future • 2
Agenda
• Introduction to Futron
• Space Competitiveness Index (SCI): genesis and concept
• Summary of 2009 results
• Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT): Selected Country Examples
• Japan SCI Snapshot
• Further Enhancing Japanese Competitiveness
• Conclusions and Questions
Better Decisions…Better Future • 3• 3
The name Futron is the union of two words:
future and -tron (the Greek suffix for ‗instrument‘) making us literally an
“instrument of the future”
Better Decisions…Better Future • 4• 4
Futron Corporation Overview
• Serving both government & industry since 1986
• Aerospace Decision Management Consultants
• ISO 9001:2000 Registered since 2003
• “Best Place To Work” Award Recipient
• Headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, in the
United States—near Washington, DC
Challenging Issues and Opportunities
Effective Decision-Making
Optimal Performance and Results
DECISION MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONSCORPORATE BACKGROUND
CORPORATE CAPABILITIES CUSTOMER NEEDS
Between where you are and
every worthwhile destination
lie many critical decisions.
Management
Business Technical
Better Decisions…Better Future• 5• 5
Sample Clientele
Government Industry Non-Profit and Association
Better Decisions…Better Future • 6
Space Competitiveness Index (SCI) Introduction
Better Decisions…Better Future • 7
• Every day, around the world, people experience the benefits of human engagement in space
• Barely a half-century since the launch of the first satellite, space activities have become
central to the way we live, work and play
Weather Forecasting
Global Positioning System
Mapping and Imagery
Satellite TV, Radio, and Communications
• Applications and benefits of space activity have multiplied—and so has their economic value
Space industry employs hundreds of thousands of people in countries around the globe
Worldwide revenues from direct space activity are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars per year
• And space remains
An object of wonder and aspiration
An inspirational and symbolic touchstone
An arena of competition
An opportunity for cooperation
The next frontier: the place where we will explore our long-term future
We Live in a World Transformed By Space
Better Decisions…Better Future • 8
• Space as indispensable to global communications and information The internet, wireless communications, voice telephony, and e-commerce, are now
global phenomena—and all have linkages to space assets
Space-enabled products such as GPS equipment and imaging services are also generating new markets
• Space as critical to military power projection Space assets, including satellite communications, reconnaissance, and tracking
systems, are key to command and control
Militaries use space assets for a host of functions, including force tracking, coordination, and situational awareness
• Space as essential to preserving and protecting the planet Earth observation and remote sensing activities have migrated from purely military
functions to the civilian and commercial spheres
Nations are increasingly sharing Earth observation resources
Remote sensing is key to monitoring global warming and climate change
• Space as a global commons—enabling global utilities Space is a shared resource used, and traversed through, by all
Debris mitigation shows how use of space by one country can affect all others
Space trends are key to critical industries and infrastructure
Better Decisions…Better Future • 9
Both traditional companies and new startups are at the vanguard of technology
• Traditional Leaders Established space companies—launch vehicle manufacturers, launch providers, satellite
manufacturers, satellite operators, and providers of related services—continue to explore emerging technologies:
• Less expensive and more rapidly deployable boosters
• Small satellites (smallsats)
• Standardized ―plug-and-play‖ platforms
• Miniaturization of components
• Economies of scale in production
• Emerging Entrepreneurial Players Alongside established players, entrepreneurial space ventures play a growing role
• Space tourism
• New launch vehicles
• New business models
• Capital investment and perspective originating from outside the space industry
Space industry continues to push the envelope
Better Decisions…Better Future • 10
• Advancement of Asian competitors
An exclusive club becomes less exclusive as the Asian space powers—Japan, China, India, and South Korea—compete among themselves
Asian space leaders are increasingly technological peers of the US, Europe, and Russia
The center of gravity in world space activity continues to shift eastward
• Maturity of European space integration
Coalescing of European actors and assets, and a renewed focus on military space
Passage and refinement of the European Space Policy marks a significant accord that sets the stage for new collaborative European space initiatives
• Globalization of space participation
At least 50 nations now have some degree of space involvement—whether a national satellite, an astronaut flown aboard the vehicle of a partner nation, membership in a space organization, or participation in the development of an international space science project
From Malaysia‘s RazakSAT to Vietnam‘s Vinasat 1, from Australia‘s Hyshot 2 to Saudi Arabia‘s Riyadh Space Research Institute, countries from all six populated continents now participate in space
And space activity is now a worldwide phenomenon
Better Decisions…Better Future • 11
Space Competitiveness Index: The Concept
• Questions of national space competitiveness naturally present themselves in any discussion of the strategic space environment
• Yet to our knowledge, there had never been a structured framework for comparing space competitiveness across countries
• In 2008, Futron decided to undertake its own analysis
Create an original framework for evaluating national space competitiveness in all its nuance
Look at both quantitative and qualitative measures
Provide a point-in-time ranking of national space competitiveness that can be tracked year-on-year going forward
Stimulate industry, government, media, and civil society discourse
Serve as a tool for leaders to make strategic decisions
Better Decisions…Better Future • 12
Ten Countries Analyzed
• 12
Canada
Brazil
China
Europe
India
Israel
Japan
Russia
South Korea
USA
Better Decisions…Better Future • 13
Three Dimensions: Government, Human Capital and Industry
Space Competitiveness IndexCategory Weights
Industry
40%
Human
Capital
20%
Gov’t
40%
Space Competitiveness IndexHuman Capital Categories
Human Resources Pool 10%
Usage/Reliance 8%
Civil Society Interest 2%
Human
Capital
20%
Space Competitiveness IndexGovernment Categories
Gov’t
40%
Space Policy &
Innovation
Support25%
Civilian &
Military
Spend15%
Space Competitiveness IndexIndustry Categories
Manufacturing
Capabilities
Launch
Capabilities
Corporate &
Financial
Strength
Industry
40%
12%
13%
15%
Better Decisions…Better Future
Structure
CategoryTarget
MeasurementMetric Weight
Industry Ability to Finance and Deliver Space
Products and Services40%
Manufacturing
Capabilities12%
Spacecrafts Built during Year (Total
Mass & #)4%
Backlog of Spacecraft to be
Produced (Number)4%
VSAT Manufacturing (Market
Share)2%
# of Subcomponent Manufacturers 2%
Launch
Capabilities13%
Number of Active Spaceports 5%
Total Mass of Launches (Military +
Commercial) During Past Year (Kg)2%
Number of launches During Past
Year2%
1 yr. Backlog of Orbital Launches
to Be Conducted (Number)2%
Number of Planned Spaceports 2%
Corporate &
Financial
Strength
15%
Space Revenue for Top 75
Companies (US$M)4%
Revenue for Leading GPS
Companies (US$M)1%
Top 20 Teleport Rankings 1%
Private Sector Investment (US$M
VC and PE)4%
Ranking by Investment Source 2%
Ranking by Investment Destination 2%
Number of Support Companies,
e.g., Finance, Information, et al 3%
Number of Test & Development
Satellites Launched2%
• 14
Structure
CategoryTarget
MeasurementMetric Weight
Ability of Government to Provide
Structure, Guidance, and Funding40%
Government
Space Policy &
Innovation
Support
20%
National Civil Space Policy 3%
Civil space program
budget as percentage of
national budget
3%
National Military
Space Doctrine3%
Military Space
Command Structure2%
Remote Sensing Policy,
Laws & Regulations3%
National Commercial
Space Policy2%
Positioning, Navigation,
and Timing (PNT) Strategy2%
Information,
Communications and
Telecommunications (ICT)
Policy
2%
International
Space
Cooperation
International
Cooperation5%
International Coordination -
ISS Participant3%
International Coordination -
Cooperative Agreements2%
Government
Spend on Civilian
and Military
Space (US$PPP)
15%
Civilian Space Spending
(US$PPP)7.5%
Military Space Spending
(US$PPP)7.5%
Go
vern
men
t
Structure
CategoryTarget
MeasurementMetric Weight
Ability for People to Develop and
Willingness to Use Applications and
Technology
20%
Human
Resources Pool10%
Number of Astronauts 2%
Number of Relevant
University Programs3%
Number of Space Law
Programs1%
Number of Civilian
Research Institutes2%
Number of Spacecraft built
during last 20 years2%
Usage/Reliance 8%
Number of Active
Spacecraft6%
Science & Exploration 1%
Communications 1%
Earth Observation 1%
PNT 1%
Military Satellites 2%
Number of End Users (DTH,
Internet, Sat Radio)2%
Civil Society
Interest and
Support
2%
Number of "Space-
oriented" organizations
and/or NGOs
2%
Hu
man
Cap
ital
Ind
ustr
y
50+ Metrics
Better Decisions…Better Future • 15
Five Segments (or Verticals)
Special Focus: Five Segments
1. Global Space Exploration Index
2. Global Military Space Index
3. Global Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) Index
4. Global Remote Sensing Index
5. Global Space Technology Base Index
SCI Drivers
Who What How
Military Exploration Government Policies & Leadership
Civilian Government Communications Human Capital and Experience
Commercial EnterpriseRemote Sensing
Corporate Structure and
Operations
Non-profit Organizations Positioning, Navigation & Timing Space Technology Base
Individuals Manufacturing Investment & Spending
Launch
Space Services
SCI Segmentation Analysis
Better Decisions…Better Future • 16
Results featured in International Publications
• 16
Better Decisions…Better Future • 17
2009 Space Competitiveness Index Results
Better Decisions…Better Future • 18
SCI government metrics measure the ability for government to provide structure, guidance,
and funding to the space industry
• The U.S. has a robust government policymaking structure with detailed strategies for military, civilian, and
commercial applications—but the complexity of the system, a lack of a unifying executive structure for
decision-making, and the ongoing issue of export controls reduce overall competitiveness
• The U.S. spends more money than any other nation on space. Its substantial military investment offers
technology advantages, but may also obscure narrowing technological advantages in the civil space arena
• European governments, through the European Union (EU) and the European Space Agency (ESA), have
integrated their policymaking structures and are increasing civilian and commercial spending
• Japan‘s recent updates to its space law and policy signal a renewed government focus on the strategic,
economic and social benefits of space activity. This renewed focus on the country‘s space ambitions also
highlights the country‘s advanced technological capabilities
Metrics – Government
Space Competitiveness Index - Government
6.10
6.72
8.39
12.24
12.89
15.80
38.42
18.57
19.32
12.42
0 10 20 30 40 50
Brazil
Israel
South Korea
India
China
Canada
Japan
Russia
Europe
U.S.
Better Decisions…Better Future • 19
SCI human capital metrics focus on the ability for people to develop and use space-enabled
applications and technology
• Significant concern persists globally within industry and government regarding the development of
adequate human resources, particularly technically skilled personnel such as engineers
This is especially felt among current space leaders, such as the U.S.—where an estimated 60 percent of non-
citizen engineers return to their home countries after earning degrees
• Data regarding human resources within the space industry is sparse, and lacks consistency across
countries, but the 2009 SCI has added a metric for space law training capacity
• Usage of, and reliance on, space-enabled services is skewed towards larger, advanced economies,
particularly with the introduction of new satellite services such as navigation and end-user Internet access
• Civil society interest and support is widespread throughout Asia, Canada, Europe, and the U.S.
• Japan benefits from a skilled workforce and a solid university sector. Greater investment in research
institutes and development of human spaceflight component would increase its human capital base
Metrics – Human Capital
Space Competitiveness Index - Human Capital
0.49
0.56
1.34
1.71
1.72
2.98
3.42
9.03
3.04
13.96
0 5 10 15 20
Brazil
Israel
South Korea
India
Japan
China
Russia
Canada
Europe
U.S.
Better Decisions…Better Future • 20
SCI industry metrics calculate the ability for the private sector to finance and deliver space
products and services
• Satellite communications is one market segment predominantly in the hands of the private sector
• Significant commercial interest persists regarding remote sensing and informatics applications, as well as a
rapidly growing downstream market based on the U.S.-operated Global Positioning (GPS) constellation
• Despite its export control constraints, the U.S. commercial space industry remains the leader, with continued
very high revenues and financial activity
• European commercial competitiveness remained largely unchanged between 2008 and 2009, providing a
statistical counterpoint to perceptions that the European market has gained dramatically from efforts to
develop alternatives to satellites and equipment controlled by U.S. export regulations
• Japan and China are ranked very closely in industrial base, highlighting the ―Asian Space Race‖ perception
Japan‘s strengths include high technology, large numbers of subcomponent manufacturers, and private capital
China‘s strengths include high volumes of launch vehicles and hardware produced in recent years
Metrics – Industry
Space Competitiveness Index - Industry
0.50
1.38
1.42
1.82
2.31
3.65
4.06
10.83
18.46
37.94
0 10 20 30 40 50
Brazil
India
Israel
Canada
South Korea
Japan
China
Russia
Europe
U.S.
Better Decisions…Better Future • 21
The breakout by category provides additional value to understand national
strengths and weaknesses
2009 Space Competitiveness IndexCategory View
Space Competitiveness Index - Total
6.10
6.72
8.39
12.24
12.89
12.42
15.80
18.57
19.32
38.42
9.03
13.96
10.83
18.46
37.94
1.72
2.98
3.42
1.71
1.34
0.56
0.49
3.04
3.65
4.06
1.82
1.38
2.31
1.42
0.50
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Brazil
Israel
South Korea
India
Canada
China
Japan
Russia
Europe
U.S.
Government Human Capital Industry
Better Decisions…Better Future • 22
Based on 50+ indicators, Futron’s Space Competitiveness Index (SCI) ranks leading space
powers and measures their relative positions
2009 Space Competitiveness IndexGlobal View
Brazil
China
IndiaJapan
South Korea
Israel
Russia
U.S.
Canada
Europe
0
25
50
0 25 50
Government
Ind
us
try
Japan
Bubble size represents
Human Capital
Better Decisions…Better Future • 23
2009 versus 2008 SCI Overall SCI Results
Rank Country Government Human Capital Industry 2009 Score2008 Score
(Rank)
1 U.S. 38.42 13.96 37.94 90.33 91.43 (1)
2 Europe 19.32 9.03 18.46 46.80 48.07 (2)
3 Russia 18.57 3.04 10.83 32.44 34.06 (3)
4 Japan 15.80 1.72 3.65 21.16 14.46 (7)
5 China 12.42 2.98 4.06 19.46 17.88 (4)
6 Canada 12.89 3.42 1.82 18.13 16.94 (6)
7 India 12.24 1.71 1.39 15.34 17.51 (5)
8South
Korea8.39 1.34 2.31 12.03 8.88 (8)
9 Israel 6.72 0.56 1.42 8.70 8.37 (9)
10 Brazil 6.10 0.49 0.50 7.08 4.96 (10)
• Due in large part to its substantial new Space Law, which sets out specific space goals, creates new
structures, and provides for the possibility of Japanese military activity in space, Japan saw the
single biggest gain of any country between Futron’s 2008 and 2009 Space Competitiveness Index
• Japan leapfrogged over Canada, India, and China to become this year’s fourth-ranked country in
terms of overall space competitiveness
Better Decisions…Better Future • 24
Strengths-Weaknesses Opportunities-Threats:
Major Countries Compared
Better Decisions…Better Future • 25
United States2009 Rank: 1
Helpful Harmful
Internal O
rigin
STRENGTH
• Very strong aerospace and space sector
• Highest global space spending across all three main sectors:
civilian, military and commercial
• History and significant experience base across most technology
segments
• Strong commercial space segment and support industries, allowing
for production lines that produce large volumes at low unit costs
• Strong public-private sector cooperation
• High levels of consumer use of space services ranging from GPS
to telecommunications, satellite radio, internet broadband, etc.
WEAKNESS
• Recent economic and domestic employment crises may reduce relative
priority of space activity in the minds of policymakers and the public
• Significant industry concern regarding the long-term sustainability of human
resources and human capital development
• Lack of cabinet-level government position focused on space industry
despite a large stakeholder community
• ITAR export controls hinder commercial export activity, especially for
smaller, innovative companies with limited financial resources or legal
expertise
External O
rigin
OPPORTUNITY
• NewSpace sector activities such as commercial space tourism and
rocket racing, stimulate technical innovation, new revenue streams,
and business models
• NASA can leverage ISS leadership and other partnerships to build
further collaboration with leading space agencies
• Develop new space services markets such as mobile video and
imagery products
• Lunar missions could spur economic activity
• ORS paradigm could spark innovation
THREAT
• Gap between Shuttle and Constellation programs offers strategic opening
for competing systems
• Resurgent provides competitive alternative in launch segment
• Global manufacturers responding to export controls with products marketed
as “ITAR-Free”
• Chinese demand for satellite communications based on proprietary
standards create substantial market for manufacturing and launch
opportunities outside US
• Retaining lead position in an increasingly competitive environment will
likely become more difficult
Better Decisions…Better Future • 26
Europe2009 Rank: 2
Helpful Harmful
Internal O
rigin
STRENGTH
• Very strong aerospace sector
• Significant government program support
• Multi-year budgetary commitments
• Extensive experience in international cooperation
• Home of major players in global satellite communications (SES and
Eutelsat)
• Reliable and commercially successful access to space (Ariane), soon
complemented by smaller launchers (Vega, Soyuz 2)
• Strong participation in international programs
• Essential role in ISS
• The European Space policy—first adopted in 2007—has enhanced ’s
ability to integrate national space policies and implement common
European space policies
WEAKNESS
• Fragmented (from a pan-European point of view) military space policies
and budgets lead to inefficiency and overlap between assets and
expenses, inhibiting transfer of technologies originally developed for the
military to the commercial sector
• Coexistence of national and ESA programs sometimes results in overlap,
redundancy, and inefficient use of resources
• Coordination of 19 member states’ interests entails a complex and
sometimes lengthy decision making process in ESA
• Coordination between ESA and the European Council (EC) is
complicated by different nature of both organizations
External O
rigin
OPPORTUNITY
• Europe’s ITAR-free satellite and space industry is gaining market
traction, benefiting its overall competitive position—especially in relation
to the
• Strong relationships with Middle Eastern and African markets provide a
regional competitive edge in regions that are expected to increase in
commercial, political, and economic influence
• Europe’s Galileo satellite navigation positions itself as a partner and a
competitor of GPS
• Increasing integration of licensing and regulatory processes across the
EU, making it the largest developed consumer market in the world for
space-related products and services
THREAT
• Complex decision-making process within ESA and between ESA and EC
may result in slow reactivity to challenges and opportunities.
• Projected shortage of future workforce in space engineering.
• Slow international process to conceive and prepare for future human
spaceflight/exploration (beyond ISS) endangers continuity of human
spaceflight activities that would affect also .
• Minor role in some satellite-related fields such as VSAT
• Excessive reliance on “ITAR-free” commercial offerings may result in
less-than-optimal cost structures
Better Decisions…Better Future • 27
Russia2009 Rank: 3
Helpful Harmful
Internal O
rigin
STRENGTH
• Strong space legacy based on U.S.S.R, technology, assets, and
organization
• Industry-leading launch platforms and capacity
• National reinvestment of Russian military, and refocus within the
country’s centralized military space organization
• ISS participation and other partnerships with Europe and the
provide access to leading-edge technology
• Continued development of wholly-owned and operated
Vostochny launch facility, as opposed to partially owned
Baikonur facility in Kazakhstan
WEAKNESS
• Some strategic formerly U.S.S.R. assets located in newly-independent states
(NIS)
• Military space activities are not cascaded through all branches of Russian
military
• Although space industrial base is world-class, commercial aerospace sector
has only moderate international presence
• Quality of post-secondary engineering education varies widely
• Loss of significant human capital due to competition with the private sector inside Russia and also to emigration—largely to Canada, Europe, Israel, and
the US
External O
rigin
OPPORTUNITY
• Cooperation with newly independent states of former USSR
creates leadership and export opportunities
• can provide increased expertise and exports to emerging Asian
actors
• Reemphasis on Asian markets and partners can create market
niche
• Russian enterprises can support new product development
surrounding operation of GLONASS
THREAT
• NIS, particularly Ukraine and Kazakhstan, create “access risks” to launch and
spaceport facilities
• Economic volatility has affected more severely than other leaders over the past
decade, leading to doubts about the long-term viability of and Vostochny
projects
• Failure of efforts to commercialize GLONASS would result in limited return on
a substantial investment
Better Decisions…Better Future • 28
China2009 Rank: 5
Helpful Harmful
Internal O
rigin
STRENGTH
• Track record of incremental space advancements interspersed with
rapid substantial achievements
• Bold strategy and objectives, supported by strong government focus
and resources
• Strategic launch platforms with consistent success
• Concerted investment in technical institutes will, over time, build a
strong human resource base
• Cost and pricing competitiveness supported by government subsidies
• Diverse range of programs covering all major segments
WEAKNESS
• Lack of transparency within the civilian and military space organization
• Closed environment represents a barrier to entry for international
commercial segments and investment, such as satellite communications
• Limited role and experience of private-sector actors
• Limited role of civil society in space activity
• Lack of international agreements with leading space players minimizes
scale and global reach
• Lack of NewSpace activity such as space tourism and entrepreneurship
• Limited involvement from financial sector and other support industries
External O
rigin
OPPORTUNITY
• Emerging domestic aerospace sector, if commercialized, could
increase space-related exports
• Leverage the successful launch record and competitive launch price of
the Long March vehicle to expand presence in international
commercial launch market
• Develop international partnerships in lunar, manned, and Mars-
focused space programs
• Leverage commercial space resources of Hong Kong, including the
headquarters of important satellite communications providers
THREAT
• Trying to do too much too fast may result in broad but thin technology
base
• The more increases its international commercial presence, the more it
may encounter issues of intellectual property rights
• Increasingly global commercial operations by other leading countries
have competitive edge over nascent Chinese industry
• Political or military posturing could inhibit the benefits of
commercialization and international partnerships
Better Decisions…Better Future • 29
India2009 Rank: 7
Helpful Harmful
Internal O
rigin
STRENGTH
• Cabinet-level focus on civil space sector
• Year-on-year funding increases and indirect investment via
government ownership of space services
• Highly skilled and motivated human resource base—and a government
policy to support education
• Increasingly world-class technology base and positive track record
• Strongly articulated linkage between national space goals and
economic development
• Immense domestic market, particularly for satellite services—though
contingent on continued economic development
• Strategy of international collaboration and partnership with leading
space powers
WEAKNESS
• Few proven cutting-edge space applications or technologies
• Telecommunications policy that inhibits innovation and development of
space-based services, such as satellite radio, consumer broadband via
satellite and spectrum issues
• Commercial marketplace remains immature and highly dependent on
domestic government programs
• Government ownership of key infrastructure distorts the commercial
marketplace
• In absolute terms, ISRO funding is significantly smaller than leading
space powers
• Weak, but improving, military space program, organization, and assets
External O
rigin
OPPORTUNITY
• Extensive ties to other major space programs provide opportunities for
collaboration
• Potential to improve US-Indian space ties—government and
commercial—as is perceived by policymakers to be an important ally
• Recently signed political accords between India and Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) nations could lead to regional
commercial or intergovernmental agreements
• English-heritage legal and property rights regimes ease partnering with
the West
• Ability to leverage IT and software development capabilities
• Low-cost of production could stimulate exports
THREAT
• Strong regional and global competitors in the launch and manufacturing
arena could limit market share
• US and European firms will likely continue to dominate high-end
technology and payload markets in near term
• Space relations with US and could sour if there is a resurgence of
tension in India-Pakistan relations
Better Decisions…Better Future • 30
South Korea2009 Rank: 8
Helpful Harmful
Internal O
rigin
STRENGTH
• Recent ramp-up of space activities provide a foundation for future
activity
• Moderate aerospace sector, and strong subcomponent sector
• Some limited experience building satellites
• Strong space vision and increased budget
• Deepening international partnerships with leading space powers
WEAKNESS
• Limited military space assets and organization
• Lack of commercial space policy, as well as a deliberate strategy for
commercialization
• Relatively weak private-sector space business, with limited finance and
support services
External O
rigin
OPPORTUNITY
• Leverage international partnerships with , US, and —including the
ISS program
• Increase exports of space electronics and components tied to hybrid
services such as telecommunications equipment, GPS devices, etc.
• Leverage strengths in information, communications, and
telecommunications (ICT) products and services
THREAT
• Geopolitical tensions between North and could negatively impact
South Korean commercial development
• Lack of industry scale could limit South Korean emergence in the
international launch market
• South Korea’s export-driven economy may experience a longer-term
economic recession, impacting short and long-term budgets
Better Decisions…Better Future • 31
Japan Snapshot
Better Decisions…Better Future • 32
Japan2009 Rank: 4
Helpful Harmful
In
te
rn
al O
rig
in
STRENGTH
• Passage of Basic Space Law creates a clear policy-making
framework and impetus for government-wide space focus,
planning and investment
• Merger of three organizations into JAXA, combined with JAXA
Vision 2025, has helped strengthen the space agency
• Established history of space activities, exploration programs,
and launch programs
• Major ISS participant with new Kibo module and HTV
• Very strong, world-class industrial and technological foundation
WEAKNESS
• Comparatively low prioritization of civil space spending as a
proportion of national budget
• Modest aerospace industry overall, with lack of global reach
among Japanese space manufacturers
• Limited civil society focus on space
• Advantages of strong individual institutions and universities offset
by somewhat limited academic network of space programs and
activities
Ex
te
rn
al O
rig
in
OPPORTUNITIES
• Potential for new Basic Space Law to have cascading effects
throughout government and commercial sectors
• Improved leverage and benefits from strategic relationship with
US
• Possible increased role in ISS, for instance to fill spaceflight
gaps linked to Space Shuttle retirement
• Increasing investment in defense and homeland security could
include space systems
• Focus on disaster management could leverage regional
leadership position
• Increasing internal and external discussion/collaboration can
promote knowledge-sharing and innovative new approaches
THREATS
• Lack of financial and support industry limits overall availability of
financing, especially in a recessionary environment
• Japan is yet perceived as a leader in entrepreneurial space or
space commerce, limiting its ability to forge dynamic business
relationships with external partners
• Japan in not yet viewed internationally as a consistently
advancing space contender—which may reduce the confidence
of international governmental partners in Japan’s ability to
sustain multi-decadal space goals
• Major redirection of US human spaceflight program could have
implications for Japanese astronauts
Better Decisions…Better Future • 33
Further Enhancing Japanese Space Competitiveness
Better Decisions…Better Future • 34
Perfect Timing
• Japan‘s Basic Space Law, JAXA renewal, and creation of the Strategic
Headquarters for Space Policy (SHSP) all point to new prioritization and focus
• Japan‘s re-consideration of its national and commercial space objectives
comes at the right time
Worldwide economic restructuring: risks, but also opportunities
Major changes in leadership: In Japan, the United States, Europe, and elsewhere
Many space agencies currently engaged in top-to-bottom policy reviews
Renewed international focus on big goals
• Human spaceflight
• The Moon
• Mars
• Understanding the Origins of the Universe
• Mitigating Global Warming and Climate Change
Many avenues for cooperation: business-to-business, government-to-government,
and public-private partnerships
―Cooperation is the new competition.‖
Better Decisions…Better Future • 35
Japan Starts With Many Advantages
• Viewed as an excellent space collaborator
Strong partnerships with US and Europe
• US has flown more missions with Japan than any other country
• Internationally acknowledged leadership
World-class –in some cases world-leading—quality of technology
• US contacts have called Japanese ISS equipment ―exquisite‖
Precision manufacturing
• Some of the most advanced instruments, mechanisms, and hardware in the world
• Potential to emerge, in global perception, as regional space leader
Futron‘s 2009 SCI identifies Japan as current top-ranked nation in Asia
• Plenty of successful experience ―going global‖
Japan has pioneered many new technologies on the world stage
Japanese business history offers myriad examples of how to transform an initial
strength into a worldwide presence and brand
Better Decisions…Better Future
• A bold vision and a roadmap are needed
Challenging and coherent goals—many pathways for getting there
Identify incremental actions needed, and assess progress along the way
How to get from here to there?
Monitor
Implement
Where
Japan Is
Where
Japan
Wants to Be
Milestones
Re-Assess
Execute
Here and Now Then and There
Plan Act (and React)
Better Decisions…Better Future • 37
Main Strategic Issue
• Japan can leverage its current government, industry, and human
capital strengths into
More efficient and cost-effective supply chains
More productive innovation spirals
Greater global commercial presence
• To do so, Japan should ask where it could, and should
Lead
Compete
Cooperate
Invest
Better Decisions…Better Future • 38
Success begins
with building on
qualities that are
uniquely your
own.
• These first 50 years
of space activity are
not the end; This is
only the beginning.
Uniquely Japanese Strengths