developing robust indcs: experiences from developing countries and emerging lessons
TRANSCRIPT
Assessing ambition of INDCsDeveloping robust INDCs: Experiences from developing countries and emerging lessons
Side Event presentation, Lima, Peru
Monday 01 December, 15:00 – 16:30
Markus Hagemann
Ways to assess mitigation contributions by countries
Comparison
To BAU
To effort sharing
To mitigation potential
Of decarbonisation indicators
To good practice policy package / policy menu
www.newclimate.org 3
Further reading: GIZ INDC process guide (authored by NewClimate Institute staff): http://mitigationpartnership.net/sites/default/files/giz_bmub_2014_process_guidance_for_intended_nationally_determined_contributions_indcs_1.pdf
Comparison to BAU
BAU is counterfactual
BAU includes many different developments
Example Brazil36.1% to 38.9% below BAU in 2020
www.newclimate.org 3
Further case examples (CP pledges for 2020):• Indonesia – 26% to 42% below reference• South Korea – 30% below reference• South Africa – 34% below BAU• Mexico – 30% below BAU• Chile – 20% below BAU
Comparison to effort sharing (equity)
Large range of effort sharing approaches, e.g. per capita, carbon budgets, equal costs, …
www.newclimate.org 5
Case examples:• Indonesia• Brazil – historical responsibility• Chile – in its INDC process
Comparison to potential
Large uncertainties
Assumptions on base line?Assumptions on cost elements?Model used?
Source: Fekete et al. 2013. Climate change mitigation in emerging economies: From potentials to actions. http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/378/publikationen/cc_19_2013_vorabexemplar_fkz_3711_41_120_ueberarbeitet_12_12_13_.pdf
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Case examples:• South Africa - LTMS• Peru- Plan CC• Chile - MAPS• EU – Impact Assessment
Comparison to decarbonisation indicators
CO2/kWh
2010 2050
Pledge
Current policy
Required for 2°C
Global average
kWh/cap Pledge
Current policy
Required for 2°C
Global average
2010 2050
Current best practice
Current best practice
Intensity
Activity
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Case examples:• China• India(intensity targets)
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Comparison to low carbon policy package
Possible approach1. Choose area of
intervention2. Identify BP
incentives and barriers
3. Develop benchmarks
4. Rate policy against benchmark Case examples policies:
• Uganda – RE feed-in tariff• Mexico – Buildings NAMA• China – National ETS (planned)
Comparison More simple
>>>>>> More complex
To BAU
To effort sharing
To mitigation potential
Of decarbonisation indicators
To good practice policy package / policy menu
Complexity of analysis
Downscale regional BAU
Bottom up development of BAU
Use IPCC effort sharing ranges
Own effort sharing model
Categorization of measures
Bottom up modelling of MACC
Use of existing literature
Development of country specific indicators
Application of existing policy menues
Dev. of counrty spec. policy menues
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Suitable approaches for different types of commitments
Business as usual (BAU)
Effort sharing
Mitigation potential
Decarboni-sation indicators
Good practice policy package
Aspirational national long term emissions goal
National short term emissions target
Energy / sectoral targets
Highlight policies and projects
www.newclimate.org
Legend approachesMost appropriateAppropriate
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Conclusions
Relevance of assessing ambition
Allows for comparison of country offers in the international process
Supports countries’ domestic processes for the development of INDCs
Options to assess ambition
All 5 options can provide valuable information to assessing ambition
No silver bullet approach, ideally all are combined
Some approaches might be better suited depending on target types
Level of complexity of analysis
Complexity of analysis can be adjusted to capacity level
Suggested approach: Moving from simpler to more complex option
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Thanks for your attention!
Contact: Markus Hagemann, [email protected]: http://newclimate.org/2014/10/29/how-to-assess-the-level-of-ambition-of-an-intended-nationally-determined-contribution/ GIZ Guide (authored by NewClimate Institute staff): (authored by NewClimate Institute staff) : http://mitigationpartnership.net/sites/default/files/giz_bmub_2014_process_guidance_for_intended_nationally_determined_contributions_indcs_1.pdf
www.newclimate.org
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Backup slides
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Policy package approach
15/04/2023
Policy evaluation Emission pathways
Inpu
tO
utpu
tTi
me-
line
Vision Best practice policy package Indicators BenchmarksAn
alys
is
fram
ewor
k
long term2050
mid term2030
short term2020
Qualitative assessment of ambition of medium term goals/ policies
Business as usual: basic data and assumptions
Policy impact
impact of implemented policies impact of planned policies comparison to best practice
comparison to intl. pledges comparison to effort sharing
models comparison to national goals
Weighting factors
Weighting factors
Qualitative assessment of ambition of long term goals
Information & data gathering collection of data information on policies and effectiveness organized by segments
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Comparison to effort sharing