developing trend of global economies by world bank july 2013

8/22/2019 Developing Trend of Global Economies by World Bank July 2013

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Developing Trends: July 2013Overview

Developing Trends was prepared by the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) of the World Bank. The team is coordinated by Allen

Dennis (Overview and Trade), and is comprised of Tehmina Khan (High-Income), Cristina Savescu (Industrial Production and Business sentiment),

Eung Ju Kim (High-income and Finance), John Baffes and Damir Cosic (Commodities), and Sanket Mohapatra (Exchange rate) Ekaterine

Vashakmadze (Inflation), and Adil Islam (Statistical Annex). The report was prepared under the guidance of Andrew Burns.

This note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.

Triggered by recent Fed statements, global financial markets have been rattled as investors re-calibrateexpectations.Between late May and early July, there was a wide-spread sell-off in global financial mar-kets, following a Fed testimony to the US congress, interpreted by investors to suggest that the US QEprogram could be tapered off earlier than previously thought. During this period, the 10-year yield on UStreasuries rose more than 60 basis points (bps) to 2.739% on July 5, the highest level since August 2011.Benchmark stock indexes in the United States, Japan, and Europe fell by 5.2, 9.3, and 8.5 percent, respec-tively, and CDS spreads for high-spread Euro Area economies also rose (in the case of the Portugal thesharp rise had more to do with political grid lock). Bond issuance from emerging market economies tum-bled to a mere $1.7 billion in June, compared to $37.7 billion in May and a record $44.9 billion in April.Further, metal prices, in particular precious metals tumbled during this period (12% decline). However,since early July there has been a partial reversal of these trends as another statement by the Fed appearsto have tempered previous market expectations of an early QE tapering. As a result, since the first week of

July US treasury yields have declined by about 15 bps, US stock markets have bounced back hitting recordhighs. However, reflecting domestic challenges in some large developing countries (slower growth in Chi-na, Brazil and India) the bounce back in developing country stock markets has been less pronounced.

With real side data lagging behind financial indicators, the real side impacts of recent perturbations infinancial markets is yet to be determined, nonetheless global industrial activity has been deceleratingsince March with diverging performances across economies. Global industrial production growth deceler-ated to an annualized pace of 2.3 percent (3m/3m, saar) in the three months to May from 2.8 and 2.5percent in April and March respectively. Nonetheless, performance across economies have diverged, with

industrial production growth in high-income countries actually strengthening, albeit from weak levels (i.e.

from 1.2% in March to 2.2% in May), in contrast with the weakening of activity among developing econo-

mies (from 5.3% in March to 2.4% in May). High-income countries industrial expansion was buoyed by a

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12.0

14.0

Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13

High-Income Developing World

Pace of industrial production growth diverges betweendeveloping and high-income countries

(volumes, %ch 3m/3m)

Source:WorldBankDECProspectsGroupandDatastream

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5

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

U.S.stocks

(S&P500)

German

stocks(DAX)

Japan

(TOPIX)

EMstocks USTreasury

yield

Highspread

EuroCDS

spread

BetweenlateMayandJune July

Global financial markets have been volatile in recent months

Change (percent, basis points)

Source: Bloomberg and World Bank DEC Prospects Group

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April 24, 2013

Developing Trends: May 2013

German-led acceleration in Euro Area industrial output (3.5% in May strongest expansion in 27 months); as

well as in Japan (7.0% in May strongest expansion in 20 months) where ongoing stimulus measures and thesharp yen depreciation have supported a strong rebound in real-side activity. Purchasing Manager Indices

(PMI) on output in June, suggest that the divergence in economic performance observed across economies in

May continued in June. However, the new orders PMIs present a mixed picture for prospects going forward.

On the one hand, new orders were up for Japan and the United States, suggesting strengthening activity for

the early months of Q3 2013. On the other hand, weaker new orders PMI in the Euro Area signals a tempering

of the recent expansion. Among developing economies, June new orders PMI signal weakening activity for

China, India, and Vietnam, and a marginal pick-up in orders for Indonesia, Brazil, Russia and Turkey.

Commodity prices projected to decline in 2013. The recently released World Bank Commodity Markets Out-look forecasts oil prices to average $101/bbl in 2013, down from $105/bbl in 2012, barring any major macro-

economic shocks or supply disruptions. Agricultural prices are projected to decline 6 percent in 2013, underthe assumption of a normal crop. However, sharper price declines are expected in metals and minerals: with

base metal prices projected to fall by more than 8 percent due to abundant supplies and weakening demand

conditions; and precious metals prices are expected to drop almost 20 percent as institutional investors in-

creasingly consider them less attractive safe haven alternatives. Nonetheless, there are several risks to this

outlook. For oil prices, downside risks include weaker than expected global growth, while upside risks could

result from oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. For metal prices, down side risks stem from the speed at

which new supply comes on stream, the degree of slowdown in China (which accounts for 45% of global metal

consumption) and US monetary policy. Weather-related shocks are the key upside risks for agricultural prices.

Inflationary pressures remain low globally. Declining commodity prices and subdued global demand havecontributed to easing price pressures. Global inflation eased to a 2.1 percent annualized pace (saar) in the

three months to May, 1 percentage points slower compared to May 2012. High-income country inflation

dropped to a 0.4 percent pace (saar) in the three months to May - the lowest rate since April 2009-, and infla-

tion in developing countries fell to 6.2 percent in June - the lowest rate since September 2012. Notwithstand-

ing the low global inflation environment, idiosyncratic domestic factors have contributed to inflationary pres-

sures in some regions. The Middle East & North Africa continues to see high inflation rates related to supply

disruptions due to political turmoil, sanctions and currency depreciation. In South Asia, inflationary pressures

have built-up due to supply-side bottlenecks and currency depreciations in a number of Latin American coun-

tries have increased inflation momentum there. In general, developing-country central banks have paused on

easing of policy rates. With many developing economies operating at or close to full capacity, further policy

easing would likely contribute to an escalation of debt and asset bubbles without much payoff in growth.

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Developing High-income World

Inflation is decelerating globally(CPI, %ch 3m/3m saar)

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240

Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13

Agriculture Energy Metal and Minerals

Commodity Prices have sustained a downward trend in recent months($US nominal 2005=100)

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July 18, 2013

High income (1)

US data are mixed, with industrial productiongrowth easing, but consumer confidence andlabor markets continue to mend. Final Q1 GDP estimates were revised down to

1.8% growth (q/q saar) from 2.4% initially esti-mated due to weaker consumer and businessspending. IP growth eased to 1.6% (3m/3msaar) in May from 2.9%, with the June manufac-turing PMI also signaling slower output growth.

On the plus side, the Conference Board consum-er confidence index rose 7.1 points to 81.4 inJune, the highest in nearly 6 years, while laborand housing markets continue to mend.

Equities which had fallen in June due to uncer-tainty about the tapering of quantitative easingpolicies have reached new highs on reassuranceby the Federal Reserve that currently loose mon-etary policy would be maintained for some time.

Euro Area data indicate an easing in the down-turn, although fiscal consolidation and tightcredit conditions in the periphery remain a drag Euro Area IP growth gained momentum rising by

3.5% (3m/3m saar) in May, up from 2.9% in April.The improvement was led by a strong accelera-

tion in Germanys IP growth to 9.1% (from 6.2%)but also in other Euro Area economies. Germanfactory orders, a gauge of future investmentspending continued to grow at a strong pace.

However the June manufacturing PMI fell in Ger-many to 48.6, the second consecutive monthly fallon renewed weakness in new orders and declinesin employment.

Although PMIs rose in other EU countries, theindex has risen to or above the 50 line separatinggrowth from contraction only in Ireland (50.3)and Spain (50.0). In addition, unemploymentcontinues to increase while credit remains tightand house prices continue to fall.

Activity remained strong in Japan supported byaggressive monetary easing. Industrial activity and consumer spending re-

mained strong. IP rose by 7.1% (3m/3m saar) inMay from 5.2% in April. Retail sales rose by 1.9%(3m/3m saar) down from 3.1% in April.

Manufacturing PMIs point to faster expansion inoutput. Meanwhile consumer confidence is at aseven year high with 80% of Bank of Japan surveyrespondents expecting higher inflation in a year.

Data show the US economy continuing to heal, with retail spending gaining momentum and consumer confi-dence rising strongly, although industrial output growth and business confidence are weak. Euro Area IP ac-celerated in May led by Germany as well as a recovery in the troubled periphery economies. Forward lookingmanufacturing PMIs Improved for all except Germany. Industrial output and consumer spending gained fur-ther momentum in Japan in line with rising business and consumer sentiment with the latter at a 7-year high.

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64

Jan-10Apr-10Jul -10Oct-10Jan-11Apr -11Jul -11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul -12Oct-12Jan-13Apr -13Jul -13

Euro AreaUSAJapanGermanyItaly50-line

Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI)Diffus ion Index

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Mark it Last updated: Jul . 17, 2013

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-15

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0

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15

20

25

May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13

HIY retail salesVolume, 3mma saar % chg

US Japan Germany EMU

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50

60

May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13

Jap: Core orders ex ships, utilities

USA: New orders durable goods ex transport

Ger: Total new orders

HIY Machinery Orders(3m/3m saar % chg)

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July 18, 2013 page 1

High income (2)

After posting strong gains in the first 5 months of2013, G3 stocks tumbled between late May andJune amid concerns over the U.S. stimulus. Benchmark stock indexes for Germany, Japan,

and the U.S. posted strong gains in the first 5months of 2013, but they tumbled between lateMay and June amid rising concerns over the scal-ing back of the U.S. bond purchasing program.

The S&P 500, Nikkei 225, and DAX plunged5.3%, 8.5%, and 9.3%, respectively, between lateMay and June, as fears over the U.S. stimulus ta-pering plans triggered global stock sell-off.

Although G3 stocks rallied recently after the U.S.

central bank reassured the market it will maintainits stimulus program for some time, stock marketsare likely to remain volatile going forward.

Credit default swap spreads for troubled Euro-Area economies have increased amid rising polit-ical uncertainty and deteriorating economic pro-spects. CDS spreads for Portugal have continued to rise

sharply thus far this month, widening 169 basispoints (basis points) to the current 573 bps, amidweakening of the nations economic outlook andpolitical grid lock. Portuguese spreads rose 107

bps between late May and June. Spreads for Spain and Italy rose 71 bps and 48 bps

between late May and June, but they have settleddown in July. Yet their current levels remain ele-vated as a corruption scandal in Spanish govern-ment and the recent downgrade of Italy by S&Pweighed on investor sentiment.

Borrowing costs for Italy and Spain have re-mained steady in July, after rising to 2-monthhighs in late June, while those for Portugal havesurged lately. The benchmark 10-year yields on Spanish and

Italian government bonds have widened by 7 bpsand 18 bps thus far July after they reached 2-month highs in late June.

Meanwhile, comparable Portuguese bond yieldshave tumbled 111 bps this month as the govern-ment struggles to resolve political grid lock inorder to complete its international aid program.

G3 equities tumbled between late May and June amid concerns over the scaling back of the U.S. stimulus, butthey bounced back recently. The cost of insuring troubled Euro-zone countries debt has increased amid risingpolitical grid lock and deteriorating economic prospects with Portugal posting the steepest widening in CDSspreads in July. Meanwhile, borrowing costs for Portugal have jumped considerably this month, while thosefor Italy and Spain have remained somewhat subdued.

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Jan-10Apr-10Jul -10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul -11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul -12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul -13

PortugalIrelandSpainItalyBelgium

Daily CDS Sovereign rates since Jan 1 2011Basis points

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Datastream Last updated: Jul. 17, 2013

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

S&P-500 (USA)DAX (Germany)Topix (Japan)

G-3 equity marketsIndex, January 1 2010=100


3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1011

12

Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13

Daily yields on 10-year government bonds

Yield (percent)

Italy

Portugal

Source: Bloomberg and Development Prospects Group

Spain

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July 18, 2013

Industrial Activity

Global IP growth started Q2 on a weak note. Developing country IP growth decelerated to a

below-potential 3.3 percent seasonally adjustedannualized pace (saar) in the three-month toApril, as growth in China weakened considerably.The weakness in industrial sectors was wide-spread across developing regions, with Europeand Central Asia being the notable exception (5percent saar), despite relatively subdued expan-sion in Russia.

US IP growth eased to 1.6 percent saar from morethan 4 percent in Q1. In Japan growth continuedto accelerate through May. Meanwhile the Euro

Area recorded a partial recovery in IP after asharp contraction in Q4 2012.

Diverging performances. Despite a weak Q2 start, industrial production in

the United States is expected to accelerate incoming quarters, as private demand is lifted bythe recovery in the housing market as well as sus-tained corporate spending, and as the drags fromthe sharp fiscal tightening ease. Performance inJapans IP is expected to remain robust, while Eu-ro Areas IP is expected to continue its recovery,

albeit at a muted pace.

In contrast, prospects for emerging economiesare less promising, as domestic demand in thelargest emerging economies continues to showsigns of weakness.

Broad weakness in emerging economies industrialsector performance at the start of Q2 2013. IP growth decelerated to close to 6 percent saar

in the three-month to May in China, down from a9.8 percent expansion in Q1 2013, on sluggishdomestic demand and weaker exports. Growthin other developing East Asian countries contin-

ued to disappoint with output flat in the three-month to April.

IP was also flat in Latin America and the Caribbe-an, as output fell in Mexico and as growth re-mained subdued in Brazil. Growth in South Asiadecelerated sharply, on lower growth in India,while output continued to contract in Sub-Saharan Africas largest economies.

Europe and Central Asia was the only bright spotamong developing regions, with growth acceler-ating to above 5 percent saar in the three-monthto May.

After a stronger-than-expected expansion in Q1 2013, global industrial production growth weakened to abelow-potential pace at the start of Q2, on account of weak demand in major emerging economies. Industrialproduction has recovered partially in the Euro Area after a sharp contraction in Q4 2012, and has acceleratedin developing Europe and Central Asia. Japans industrial sector saw one of the strongest outturns during thisperiod, boosted by policy stimulus and a sharp depreciation of the yen.

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15

Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13

Developing World High income

Global industrial production weakens at the start of Q2 2013percent, 3m/3m seasonally adjusted

Source: World Bank, Datastream.

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-20

0

20

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60

Jan-10 May-10Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13

ChinaEAP excl. ChinaEurope & Central AsiaMexicoLAC excl. Mexico

EAP, ECA & LAC industrial productionPercent change, 3m/3m saar


-40

-30

-20

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30

40

Jan-10 May-10Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13

Middle East & North AfricaIndiaSouth Asia excl. IndiaSouth AfricaSSA excl. South Africa

MENA, SAS & SSA industrial productionPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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July 18, 2013

Business Sentiment

Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers surveyindices (PMI) flat in June Growth in global manufacturing is expected to

remain below potential in Q2, as suggested bythe JP Morgan Global Manufacturing output PMI,which inched up to 51.4 in June.

The new orders component remains weak at 51.5,while more worrisome is the marked drop in ex-port orders to 48.5 indicating weak external de-mand in coming months. This is in line with the3.1 percent year-on-year decline in Chinese ex-ports in May, and the 0.7 percent decline in im-ports.

The PMIs point to an accumulation in inventoriesin Q2, which could be a drag on growth in thefollowing quarter if final global demand fails torise faster.

The divergence between high-income countries andemerging economies observed in IP data is also pre-sent in the business sentiment surveys . In the US business sentiment as gauged by the

Markit manufacturing PMI, inched down in June,with the finished goods inventories rising to a

record high of 51.4, which represents a downsiderisk for IP performance in coming months.

In the Euro Area business sentiment continued toimprove, albeit from depressed levels, with thePMI index rising an additional 0.5 points to 48.8in May, marking a sixteen-month high. NotablyGermany recorded the only decline (0.8 points)to 48.6, which marks a six-month low for thecountry. But this has been more than offset bystrong gains in France, Italy and Spain.

Meanwhile Japans PMI posted a sixth consecu-tive gain in June , to 52.3.

Business sentiment deteriorated in the largest econo-mies in East Asia, were flat in Latin America , andshowed signs of improvement in Europe and CentralAsia Business confidence strengthened in Russia, with

the PMI up 1.3 points.

In Latin America Brazils PMI was flat while busi-ness sentiment deteriorated slightly in Mexico(down 0.4 points).

Business sentiment in East Asia suffered, with thePMI index down 0.5 points in Indonesia, 1 pointin China, and 2.4 points in Vietnam.

Business sentiment indexes suggest a slower pace of global activity for the second quarter of 2013, in particu-lar in some of the largest emerging economies, and in particular in East Asia. Following strong outturns in thelast quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013. Meanwhile business sentiment improved in Euro Area ,with marked improvements in France, Italy and Spain, and despite a deterioration in sentiment in Germany.And sentiment continues to lift in Japan, pointing to continued robust growth this quarter.

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64

Jan-10Apr-10Jul -10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul -13

Euro AreaUSAJapanGermanyItaly50-line

Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI)Diffusion Index

Source: Wor ld Bank Prospects Group and Marki t Last updated: Jul . 17, 2013

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Jan-10Apr-10Jul -10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul -11Oct-11Jan-12Apr -12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul -13

Brazil ChinaIndia MexicoRussia South Afr icaTurkey 50-line

Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI)Diffusion Index

Source: Wor ld Bank Prospects Group and Marki t Last updated: Jul . 17, 2013

45

48

51

54

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60

Jan '10 Jul '10 Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13

China Developing excl. China High Income

Business sentiment suggests a below potential IP performance in Q2

Diffusion index, 50 indicates growth

Source: World Bank; Have r Analytics; Markit.

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July 18, 2013

International Trade (1)

The deceleration in global trade expansion thatoccurred in Q1 2013 is persisting through Q22013. Global trade increased at an annualized pace of

2.3% in April 2013, down from 6.6% in March,and much below its recent post rebound peak of8.1% in January 2013.

However, while developing countries sustainedtheir acceleration in import demand throughApril (11.6%, 3m/3m saar), high-income importdemand actually contracted in April (-1.5%),mostly driven by weaker import demand from thethe Euro Area. With business sentiment indicatorsfor both high-income and developing countries

suggesting a softer patch in economic activity forQ2, global import demand is likely to furtherweaken in Q2.

The deceleration of import demand among de-veloping countries is broad-based. The deceleration in import demand is confirms in

all developing countries for which data is availa-ble. Although East Asia & Pacific import demandis still growing at a robust 13.6% in April, this rep-resents a 12 percentage point decline in its paceof expansion compared to the previous month.The deceleration in the pace of import growth in

April for Europe & Central Asia, and South Asiawere more modest at about 2 percentage points,and with growth rates still at robust growth ratesabove 12%. However, in Latin America, whereMay data is available, the weakness in import de-mand deepened with imports contracting at a3.7% pace.

Data lags behind in Sub Saharan Africa and the Mid-dle East and North Africa. However latest data showsSub Saharan Africa to have registered a rebound inimport demand in Q1 2013, while the contraction inthe Middle East and North Africa deepened. Data for both sub Saharan Africa and the Middle

East and North Africa lag behind. Latest availabledata shows that, as was the case for other devel-oping countries, import demand for Sub SaharanAfrica strengthened in January and February 2013at an above 10 percent annualized pace.

However in the Middle East and North Africa, thecontraction in import demand persisted throughFebruary (seven consecutive months of contract-ing imports), reflecting the effects of politicalchallenges on demand conditions in the region.

The deceleration of global import demand that commenced in Q1 2013 persisted into Q2 2013 asobserved in the April data for both high-income and developing countries. Going forward, with busi-ness sentiment indicators suggesting a softer patch in both May and June, it is likely that import de-mand in both developing country and high-income countries will remain subdued.

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Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13

WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global Import volumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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South AsiaSub Saharan AfricaSouth AfricaMiddle East and North Africa

Regional import volumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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Jan-10 May-10Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13

East Asia & Pacifi c East As ia & Pac ifi c (ex. Chi na)Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean

Regional Import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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July 18, 2013

International Trade (2)

The deceleration in export growth has continuedinto Q2 2013. Consistent with the decelerating pace of import

demand, export growth among both high-incomeand developing countries has continued its decel-eration (which started in February) through April.

However, unlike high-income countries whereexport growth contracted in April, developingcountry export growth continued expanding.

The deceleration in export growth occurredacross most developing regions. Among developing regions for which data is

available through April 2013, the pace of exportexpansion was strongest in East Asia, and SouthAsiaalthough for both regions, export growthdecelerated compared to March. Export growthin Europe and Central Asia, decelerated to only0.9% from 9.0% the previous month.

Latin America was the only developing regionwhose exports accelerated in April (5.3%), re-flecting a rebound from the contraction in Febru-ary and March exports.

Data lags behind for the Middle east and Sub Sa-haran Africa, however data through Februaryshows that exports in both regions recovered.

Weakness in exports likely persisted through June. According to Markits Purchasing Manager Indi-

ces new export orders indices for the majority ofdeveloping countries (e.g. China, Indonesia, Bra-zil, and Vietnam) declined in June, reflecting a

subdued global demand environment.

Indeed in China, the worlds largest exporter,where June data is available, export volumescontracted by 7.4% (m/m) - the largest contrac-tion since 2009. While a crackdown on illicit waysto avoid capital controls (e.g. via over invoicing)contributed to the weaker exports data, it mainlyreflects a fundamental weakness in the externaldemand environment facing Chinese exports,particularly from Europe. This in turn impliesweaker exports for the East Asian countries thatsupply the Chinese market.

Available April data shows the slow down in export growth observed in Q1 2013 persisted into Q22013. The deceleration is broad based, however unlike developing countries where export growthremains positive, in high-income economies it contracted in April. With the exception of the LatinAmerica region, the deceleration in export growth was broad-based across developing regions.Available export orders indicators suggest that the weakness in exports will persist through June.

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WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global export volumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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East Asia & Pacific East As ia & Paci fi c ( ex. Chi na)Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean

Regional export volumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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South AsiaSub Saharan Afri ca

South AfricaMiddle East and North Africa

Regional export volumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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July 18, 2013

Commodities (1)

Oil prices recover, Brent down 8%; WTI up 9% sincethe mid-February peaks. After topping at $119/bbl in mid-February, Brent

(the international marker) has reversed courseand by mid-July has hovered around $109/bbl.Oil prices have strengthened some 8% since thebeginning of July amid political unrest in Egyptand reports of 0.5 million b/d of reduction in Lib-yan exports due to a labor strike.

WTI price (US mid-continent price), has sur-passed its mid-February peak as producers are by-passing Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point forWTI, with new pipeline capacity and rail, in turnstrengthening WTI prices relative to Brent.

The gap between Brent and WTI narrowed toUS$ 3/bbl by mid-July 2013, the lowest level in30 months.

Metal prices have not continued their slide in July. Metal prices have sharply reversed course since

mid-February and most are down on a year-to-date basis. Prices of nickel, tin, aluminum andcopper have declined by 25%, 22%, 15% and15%, respectively, from their mid-February peaksto the 2nd week of July.

Most base metals are well supplied in 2013 whichis likely to exert downside pressure on prices.

Copper and aluminum are well supplied as evi-denced by large stocks at the major metals ex-changes (more than a month of annual consump-tion for aluminum and copper respectively).

Combined stocks of copper at the three metalsexchanges (New York, London and Shanghai)have increased by 106% by end-June comparedto a year ago.

Precious metals prices have found some support inearly July, after sharp losses in June. Precious metals have been on the decline since

early 2012Q4 and price of silver, gold and plati-

num are down 26%, 36% and 11%, respectively. With reduced tail risks and the outlook for the US

economy which implies bottoming out of growthin 2013 and an eventual end to QE3, investors areseeking yield elsewhere, driving gold pricesdown. However, precious metals found supportin July as FOMC minutes of the June meetingwere interpreted as delaying the end of QE.

Holdings of gold and silver by ETFs are down(25% and 1%, respectively, year-to-date), whileplatinum are up 44%, as it has some industrialuse.

Prices of most industrial commodities and precious metals have not continued their declines July. Crude oilprices have rebounded on geo-political and supply concerns in the Middle East while precious metals foundsome support on perceptions that the end of QE is not as imminent as thought before. However, prices of allindustrial commodities are still off from mid-February peaks as the markets remain well supplied and demandremains sluggish amid signs of a soft patch in the global recovery.

70

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130

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

BrentWest-Texas Intermediate

Oil pricesUSD per barrel


70

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100

110

120

130

140


TinCopperNickel

Alumi nium

Metals PricesIndex, January 2012=100


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GoldPlatinumSilver (right axis)

US cents/troy ouncePrecious Metal Prices

US$/troy ounce

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Handy&Harman Last updated: Jul. 17, 2013

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July 18, 2013

Commodities (2)

Maize and rice supply outlook solid; wheat tight-er due to expected surge in consumption. In its July 11, 2013 update, the USDA confirmed

the improved outlook for the 2013/14 globalgrain crop. Maize production is expected toreach 960 million tons in 2013/14, marginallylower than the June update but 12.3% higherthan current seasons crop; the stock-to-use ratio(S/U) is expected to reach 16.2% in 2013/14, upfrom current seasons 14.3%.

Wheat supplies are expected to improve as well,up 6% from 2012/13. But, because of expectedconsumption surge, the S/U ratio will decline to24.6%, down from Junes estimate of 26.1%.

The rice market is well supplied with productionestimated at almost 480 million tons, and S/Uratio 22.7%, similar to historical norms.

Grain prices have been relatively stable sincetheir mid-May declines. Following the downward adjustment after

USDAs upbeat stock assessment for 2013Q1,maize has been traded remarkably stable around650 US cents per bushel since May. Wheat prices,which experienced a small decline earlier in Mayhave been stable around 680 US per bushel. Yet,upside price risks for the 2013/14 crop remain in

case adverse weather conditions materialize. Although rice prices declined 1% in July they

have been remarkably stable during the past 12months fluctuating very littleat around US$550per ton. Given that the rice market is well-supplied, rice price risks, however, are on thedownside, depending on how the Thai govern-ment handles its publicly-held stocks.

Supply concerns boosted cotton prices while rub-ber prices declined on demand-weakening con-cerns; separately, edible oil prices strengthened. Cotton prices have been relatively strong on news

of weaker than expected global crop for 2013/14(more than 5% down), which comes on the top ofthis seasons 5% decline. Natural rubber prices,which strengthened considerably during April andearly May, declined sharply recently followingstrong production (and export) growth from Thai-landthe worlds largest rubber supplier.

Separately, the edible oil index gained 2.2% inJuly (on top of a 3% gain in June) due to weather-related difficulties with soybean panting in the USas well as lower than expected yields of rapeseedin Europe.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) left largely unchanged its outlook for the 2013/14 maize and ricecrops at its July 11 update; wheat, however, remains tighter. Grain prices moved littlemaize and wheat aretraded at levels close to June 2012. Raw material prices continued their divergence with cotton prices up dueto tighter supply conditions and rubber prices down due to a production increases and weak demand.

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Apr '12 Jul '12 Oct '12 Jan '13 Apr '13

Grain Prices

US/bushel

Source: CBOT

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13

Cotton [Left]Rubber [Right]

Raw material pricesUS$ per kilogram

Source: World Bank Prospects Group, ICE and SGX Last updated: Jul. 17, 2013

US$ per kilogram

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Markedimprovementsinmaize,rice,wheatistight

(stockto

use

ratio,

percent)

Maize

Wheat

Source:USDepartmentofAgriculture (July11,2013)

Rice

10


11/26July 18, 2013

International Finance (1)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle-East & North Africa

Daily CDS Sovereign rates since Jan 1 2011Basis points


70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

MSCI AsiaMSCI EEMSCI LAC

MSCI Regional Equity IndicesIndex (Jan 1, 2011 = 100)


70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-11Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13

Emerging MarketsDeveloped Markets

MSCI Equity IndicesIndex (Jan 1, 2011 = 100)


Developing-country CDS rates have narrowedfrom June highs, but they have remained elevat-ed. CDS spreads for developing countries have tight-

ened by 58 bps on average from June highs asmarket sentiment has improved in the wake ofaccommodative Fed comments.

Debt insurance costs soared last month in a gen-eral flight from developing countries, rising tothe highest level since June 2012.

Egypt has posted the steepest drop in spreads thismonth, narrowing by 213 bps, as Arab countriespledged $12 billion to the countrys new govern-ment.

Global equities have bounced back from May-June sell-off, but gains for developing-countrystocks have been limited. Developing-country stocks have gained only

0.6% thus far July amid Fed-inspired global stockrally, after posting a loss of 11.3% between lateMay and June, compared with a 4.5% gain fordeveloped countries.

Developing-country shares have declined 5.8%this year, while mature-market equities havegained 15.3%.

Overall, developing-country stocks have beenhampered by deteriorating fundamentals includ-ing weakening economic prospects, frail corpo-rate earnings, and sliding commodity prices.

Stock markets across developing regions haverebounded in July, except Latin America. General recovery in stocks markets was shown

among developing-country region in July, withEmerging European shares faring better than oth-er regions .

Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia regionalindices have increased by 3.1% and 0.9% thus farin July, respectively. In contrast, Latin Americanstock markets have lost 2.2%.

This trend is also seen among the BRIC countrieswith Brazil being the worst performer (-4.1%) inJuly. In contrast, Russia (5.1%), China (3.0%) andIndia (2.9%) have posted considerable gains.

CDS spreads for developing countries have narrowed from June highs, driven mostly by a sharp drop in Egyp-tian spreads. Global stock markets have bounced back from May-June sell-off, but gains have been limited fordeveloping-country shares. Stock markets in Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia regions have rebounded inJuly, while Latin America have posted a considerable loss due mostly to a sharp drop in Brazilian stocks.

11


12/26July 18, 2013


Flows into developing-county bond and equityfunds plunged in June. Emerging-market bond funds posted record

monthly outflows of about $14 billion in June,after recording a 17 consecutive month of in-flows, amid the sell-off in emerging market as-sets. EM bond have continued to post outflows inthe first two weeks of July.

Meanwhile, EM equity funds posted a fourth con-

secutive monthly outflows of about $18.5 billionin June, which was the highest on record. Afterreaching a record high of $24.9 billion in January,equity flows tumbled since March. With lingeringoutflows in July, EM equity fund have accumulat-ed year-to-date outflows of more than $5 billion.

Capital flows fell sharply in June, yet they are upconsiderably in the first half of 2013. Gross capital flows to developing countries tum-

bled 60% to $26 billion in June due mostly to aplunge in bond issuance.

But total flows for the first half of 2013 amounted

to $333 billion, up 54% from the like period of2012, with all developing-country regions experi-encing considerable gains except Middle Eastand North Africa.

Europe and Central Asia region posted thestrongest gains with all segments of the marketposting sharp gains; bank lending and bond flowsto Russia especially boosted the flows to the re-gion.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Bond IssuanceEquity IssuanceSyndicated Bank Loans

Gross Capital Flows to Dev eloping Regions$ billion, 3-mon. m.a.


Borrowing costs for developing-country sovereign debt have narrowed slightly in July, after reaching a one-year high in late June. Portfolio flows into developing-country bond and equity funds plunged in June, bothfunds posting record monthly outflows. Capital flows to developing countries faltered in June, yet flows forthe firs six month of 2013 are up significantly from last year.Borrowing costs for developing-country bondsrose to a one-year high in June amid global bondsell-off, but they have fallen slightly recently. Developing-country bond spreads rose more than

100 basis points (bps) between late May and Junecaused mainly by a rise in U.S. Treasury yields,reaching a one-year high of 375 bps on June 24.

Spreads have dropped by just 10 basis points thusfar in July as investors remain cautious about de-veloping-country debt, especially those from high-risk countries, including Belize, Jamaica,Ukraine, and Venezuela.

Along with expectations of a stronger dollarahead, the pressure coming from borrowing costs

rising could lead to tightened liquidity conditionsin developing countries.

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13

Source: Bloomberg and Development Prospects Group

(JP Morgan EMBIG spreads, basis points )

Developing-country bond spreads sicne June 2011

EMsovereign bondspreads

20002007

Average

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May

EMFixedIncomeFundsEMEquityFunds

$ billions

2011 20122013

Foreign portfolio inflows to developing countries

Source: EPFR and Development Prospects Group

12


13/26July 18, 2013


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Af rica

International Equity Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Af rica

International Bond Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

Sour ce: Deallogic, DEC Pr ospect s Gr oup Last updat ed: Jul. 17, 2013

Bank Lendingbillion (3-mon. m.a.)

Equity flows remained steady in April.

Equity placements (a combination of IPOs andfollow-on issuance) fell to $5.5 billion in June,amid the global stock sell-off, down sharply $13.8billion in May. But year-to-date flows are up 62%to $63 billion from a year before.

The increase in equity flows in the first half of2013 was due to the strong follow-on issuancefrom Emerging Europe and Latin America.

The so-called BRIC countries have continued todominate overall equity volume this year, ac-counting for 62.4% of total equity issuance; butthere were also an increase in equity flows to oth-er countries, including Indonesia, Philippines,Thailand and Mexico.

Bond issuance plunged in June amid developing-country debt sell-off. Bond issuance amounted to a mere $1.7 in June,

down sharply from $37.7 billion in May and a rec-ord $44.9 billion in April.

Borrowers were deterred from selling bonds byrising funding costs amid global bond sell-off anddeteriorating fundamentals in developing coun-tries.

Nevertheless, year-to-date flows stand 42%above the levels reached in the like period of2012.

Preliminary data suggest that bond issuance ac-tivity will remain subdued in July with only severalsovereign borrowers coming to the market athigher yields.

Bank lending held up very well in June, offsettingsome of sharp losses in bond and equity flows. Syndicated bank loans to developing countries

rose to an estimated $19 billion in June, up fromabout $13 billion in May.

Bank flows rose 69% year-on-year to about $109billion in the first six months of 2013 despite the a

sharp drop in the number of syndicated loandeals.

Most of the increase was due mostly to stronglending to East Asia, with Thailand accounting forthe bulk of lending to the region.

Equity flows faltered in June, yet year-to-date flows are up 62% from a year before. Bond flows tumbled to $1.7billion in June , down sharply from $37.7 billion in May and a record $44.9 billion in April. Preliminary data sug-gest bond issuance activity is likely to remain subdued in July. In contrast, syndicated bank lending held up verywell in June, due mostly to strong lending to East Asia (especially to Thailand).

13


14/26

July 18, 2013

Exchange Rates

The US dollar appreciated further on indicationsof tapering of US quantitative easing. Earliersteep depreciation of the yen partially reversed The US dollar appreciated 1.5% in trade

weighted real effective terms between April andJune, as long-term interest rates rose after the USFederal Reserve indicated that it could graduallytaper off its current $85/month in bond purchas-es by the end of this year, depending on labormarket and economic conditions. The currentstrengthening builds on earlier appreciationtrend (3.1% since January).

Japans earlier steep yen depreciation partiallyreversed in May-June and the euro remained sub-

dued (both in trade-weighted terms) as the USdollar gained strength.

Developing-country currencies depreciated inREER terms during May-June, mainly reflecting astrengthening of the US dollar and slowing orreversal of earlier capital inflows Many emerging market currencies experienced

steep nominal and real depreciation during Mayand June as indications tapering of US quantita-tive easing pushed the US dollar higher andcaused private capital flows to slow.

The GDP-weighted average REER for developing

countries depreciated 2.6% since April (3.6% ex-cluding China), partly reversing the steady appre-ciation in earlier months. The developing countryaverage REER is broadly at a similar level now asin July 2012 with 1.1 appreciation (0.4% exclud-ing China).

Countries with relatively weak current accountpositions and financing needs (including SouthAfrica, Brazil, India) were among the hardest hit Among emerging market currencies, countries

with relatively large current account deficits,

slowing growth and financing needs, includingthe South African rand, Brazilian real, and Indianrupee suffered some of the largest REER depreci-ation falling 8.9%, 6.7% and 5.0% since April.

East Asian countries that had earlier benefitedfrom robust capital inflows also experiencedsharp depreciations, with the Thai baht, the Phil-ippines peso and Malaysian ringgit depreciating6.0%, 3.9% and 3.2% respectively.

Non-oil commodity exporters among developingcountries have also been adversely affected byweaker international prices, including Mexico,Peru and Russia.

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


JapanUSAEuro Area

High income real effective exchange ratesIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


70

80

90

100

110

120


Brazil ChinaIndia IndonesiaMexico RussiaTurkey South Afr ica

Developing nominal effective exchange rateIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


70

80

90

100

110

120


Brazil ChinaIndia IndonesiaMexico RussiaTurkey South Afr ica

Developing real effective exchange rateIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


Indications by the US Federal Reserve of tapering of quantitative easing resulted in the US dollar strengthen-ing in trade weighted terms during May and June. The earlier steep depreciation of the yen due to Japanssharply relaxed monetary partly reversed in June. Developing-country currencies, which had been steadilyappreciating since mid-2012, depreciated sharply, mainly reflecting US dollar strength and easing of industri-al commodity prices for commodity-exporting countries.

14


15/26

July 18, 2013

Inflation

Global inflation eased to 2.12 in May, one percentagepoints slower than last year, primarily driven by slowinflation in high income countries High-income country inflation dropped to a 0.4

percent annualized rate in the three months toMay, the lowest rate since April of 2009.

Inflation in developing countries was 6.2 percentannualized rate in the three months to June, thelowest inflation rate since September 2012, butstill slightly higher than in June of 2012.

Low-income country quarterly inflation, whichaccelerated in the last quarter of 2012 due tograin price related hike, dropped to 5.5 percentannualized rate in the three months to April re-

flecting moderation of commodity prices.

Inflation has followed a declining path in ECA regionand remains in-check across most of the EAP. Infla-tion outcomes are mixed in LAC with Venezuela ex-periencing a hyper-inflation, while prices remainingmoderate in the rest of the region. Price pressures are easing in ECA reflecting weak

economic activity with at least five countries ex-periencing disinflation and Georgia and Ukrainecaught in deflation.

Inflation is broadly in-check in EAP. Price pres-sures recently eased in Indonesia partly respond-ing to the policy tightening. In China inflationaccelerated in June, but remains below three per-cent rate.

In LAC, quarterly inflation hit 50 percent rate inVenezuela in May reflecting sharp devaluation,but price pressures eased in Brazil responding topolicy tightening.

MENA continues to face strong price pressures relat-ed to economic and political instability; Inflation re-mains relatively elevated in SAS reflecting supplyconstraints. Price pressures are easing in Sub-SaharanAfrica reflecting declining commodity prices. Inflation remains high in MENA reflecting supply

disruptions due to political tensions in Syria andimpact of economic sanctions in Iran. Inflationpressures have been mounting in Egypt due tocurrency devaluation.

Commodity price moderation has translated ineasing price pressures in Sub-Saharan Africa, butinflation remains high in Angola, Ghana and Ni-geria reflecting loose policies.

Moderate price pressures persist in South Asiarelated to supply side bottlenecks.

Global inflation eased further reflecting declining commodity prices and weak global demand. Inflationeased in both high-income and developing countries. Among the developing regions, economies in ECA areexperiencing the steepest decline in their inflation rates. Price pressures persist in MENA and SAS due localconditions. In addition, a number of selected economies in other regions, including Venezuela in LAC andBelarus in ECA continue to experience high inflation related to macroeconomic imbalances.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-10Apr-10Jul- 10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct -11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct -12Jan-13Apr-13

Developing C PI inflationHigh-income CPI inflation

Developing and high income inflationPercent change, 3m/3m saar

Source: World Bank Prospect s Group Last updated: Jul. 17, 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


Middle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSouth AfricaSSA excl. South Africa

MENA, SAS & SSA inflationPercent change, 3m/3msaar


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


ChinaEAP excl. ChinaEurope & Central AsiaLAC excl. Venezuela

EAP, ECA & LAC inflationPercent change, 3m/3m saar


15


16/26

July 18, 2013

Average 2012 2013 20131999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May

W o r l d 1.9 8.9 4.2 2.5 0.4 0.4 0.9 2.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1H i g h - i n c o m e c o u n t r i es 0.4 7.9 2.5 0.7 -1.3 -2.2 -2.4 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1Industrial countries 0.3 7.6 2.1 0.6 -1.2 -2.3 -2.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2

United States 0.2 5.7 3.4 3.6 2.9 0.3 2.5 4.1 0.7 0.2 -0.4 0.0Japan -1.0 15.6 -2.6 0.2 -8.3 -12.5 -7.0 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.9 1.9

uro rea . . . - . - . - . - . . . . . - .United Kingdom -1.1 2.8 -1.2 -2.4 -4.4 1.8 -8.4 1.1 0.8 0.0 -0.1 0.1

Other high income 0.3 7.6 2.1 0.6 -1.2 -2.3 -2.7 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.2Hong Kong (China) -3.7 3.4 0.8 -0.8 -6.3 8.8 1.5 -1.5 -0.2 -0.3 .. ..

ingapore . . . . - . - . . - . - . . . .Taiwan (China) 3.5 24.2 4.4 -0.2 2.8 3.2 1.7 -1.2 -1.5 -1.0 -0.9 1.0

D e v e l o p i n g c o u n t ri es 6.8 10.8 7.5 5.7 3.4 5.2 6.6 5.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1East Asia and Pacific 11.7 14.6 11.7 9.2 5.1 8.1 14.3 8.7 0.5 1.0 -0.5 0.4

ina . . . . . . . . . . - . .Indonesia 3.4 4.7 4.0 4.1 1.9 -1.6 40.5 1.7 0.1 -0.3 1.5 -3.2Thailand 8.6 14.6 -9.1 2.3 23.9 -13.0 8.8 -1.6 -1.4 4.2 -5.1 -0.3Malaysia 4.7 7.2 1.2 4.4 -5.6 -0.4 16.5 -9.7 -1.1 -1.1 3.8 -0.2

Europe and Central Asia .. 10.4 7.4 1.3 2.2 -0.6 1.2 4.7 0.4 -0.3 1.9 -2.8ussian e eration . . . . - . . - . . . . - . - .

Turkey .. 12.4 9.7 2.4 3.9 -1.4 3.2 4.2 1.4 -0.9 1.4 -0.6Poland 6.3 10.8 7.1 1.8 -2.1 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 -0.9 0.9 0.7 -1.0

zec epu ic . . . - . - . - . - . . . - . - . .

Latin America and Caribbean 1.3 6.8 3.1 0.3 -0.9 3.7 -2.6 0.1 -0.6 -0.8 1.3 ..razi . . . - . - . . - . . - . . . - .

Mexico 1.2 6.1 4.0 3.4 3.3 2.7 -3.9 0.9 0.4 -0.4 -1.7 ..Argentina 2.3 9.2 5.6 -2.0 -7.3 0.0 0.1 -0.6 1.4 -0.1 0.2 0.7Colombia 1.9 3.9 4.7 -0.1 -4.0 4.9 -8.8 -14.0 -1.4 -9.4 18.4 ..

Middle East and North Africa 1.8 1.6 -9.9 3.2 13.8 -7.6 -15.9 1.6 -0.2 0.2 .. ..au i ra ia . . . . - . - . - . - . - . . .. ..

Iran 1.1 1.1 -0.6 -17.0 -28.2 -30.0 -17.2 20.3 -0.7 0.1 .. ..Egypt .. 10.0 -6.8 5.1 -2.7 -20.4 32.4 14.9 -1.6 -0.2 -2.0 ..Algeria 2.5 -2.8 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 -0.7 -15.3 2.5 0.0 0.0 .. ..

South Asia 7.1 9.9 5.7 1.4 -2.5 -1.5 9.0 6.3 0.3 -0.7 -1.1 ..n ia . . . . - . - . . . . - . - . ..

Pakistan 5.8 11.0 6.4 1.8 -13.2 10.4 10.7 20.0 4.6 -4.8 -2.1 ..Sri Lanka .. 15.1 8.0 -0.3 -1.3 -18.7 7.3 2.7 1.4 -0.8 0.1 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.9 4.1 4.1 0.2 0.2 7.1 -14.0 -10.2 0.2 -4.0 .. ..South Africa 0.8 4.5 2.7 2.5 -1.0 1.2 8.1 -7.7 -3.0 -2.7 8.5 -1.7

igeria . . . - . . - . - . . - . . .. ..Memo:

OECD 0.3 7.6 2.3 0.7 -1.0 -2.1 -2.6 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1Developing excl. China 2.9 7.1 2.1 1.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.4 -0.2 -0.8 0.7 ..

eve oping oi exporters . . . . . - . - . - . . - . . ..ev. non-oi exporters . . . . . . . . . . - . .

Table A.1 Global indus tr ia l pr oduction gr owth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are

in ercent chan e over revious month a/)

aIn general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing,

mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often

manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.

16


17/26

July 18, 2013

Weight Avg 2012 2013 20131995 1999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May

Re a l GDPHi g h- i nc om e c ountr i e s 1.9 2.9 1.7 1.3 0.2 1.0 -0.1 1.2 .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 1.8 2.7 1.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 -0.4 1.3 .. .. .. ..United States 2.0 2.4 1.8 0.0 1.3 3.1 0.4 1.8 .. .. .. ..Japan 0.5 4.7 -0.5 0.0 -0.6 -3.6 1.2 4.1 .. .. .. ..Euro Area 1.5 2.0 1.6 0.0 -0.7 -0.3 -2.6 -1.0 .. .. .. ..

United Kingdom 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.0 -2.0 3.0 -0.9 1.1 .. .. .. ..

Re a l m e rc ha ndi s e i m portsHi g h- i nc om e c ountr i e s 3.7 12.1 4.6 0.5 -2.9 -4.7 1.8 2.1 -3.9 -3.9 8.1 ..

Industrial countries 3.4 11.0 4.4 -0.2 -2.4 -5.5 -0.3 1.3 -3.4 -4.7 8.9 ..United States 3.0 14.9 3.8 2.9 3.9 -8.0 1.4 -1.9 -0.7 -6.4 10.7 -0.6

Japan 2.3 10.5 4.3 4.0 2.9 -2.5 -12.9 3.9 1.3 -1.9 3.0 1.8uro rea . . . - . - . - . - . . - . - . . ..nite ing om . . . . - . - . - . - . - . - . . ..

t er ig income . . . - . - . - . - . . - . . . ..ong ong ina . . . . - . . . - . - . . - . ..

ingapore . . . . - . - . . - . - . - . . - .aiwan ina . . - . - . . - . . . - . . - . - .

Im port P r i c e sHi g h- i nc om e c ountr i e s 3.1 6.0 12.5 -1.4 -8.4 -2.5 5.9 -0.7 -0.9 -2.2 -1.4 ..

n ustria countries . . . - . - . - . . - . - . - . - . ..

nite tates . . . . - . . . - . - . - . - . - .apan . . . - . - . - . . - . - . - . - . - .uro rea . . . - . - . - . . . - . - . - . ..nite ing om . . . - . - . - . . - . - . - . - . ..

Other high income 3.1 5.9 12.6 -1.9 -9.6 -3.2 6.5 -0.5 -0.2 -2.0 -0.9 ..Hong Kong (China) 2.4 5.1 7.4 3.2 0.4 0.3 1.5 -2.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 ..Singapore 4.7 10.5 15.8 0.7 -16.8 1.3 6.0 -4.0 1.4 -4.4 -2.1 1.0Taiwan (China) 3.6 12.2 15.3 -1.9 -9.1 -2.1 2.2 -9.9 -1.2 -1.9 -1.3 -0.8

Real effective exchange rates aEuro Area 33.5 1.1 -6.0 1.7 -4.7 -6.6 -6.8 -3.1 1.8 1.4 -2.1 1.1 -0.5

United States 14.4 -0.9 -3.9 -4.9 3.0 5.7 5.2 -0.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 -0.5 0.5Japan 7.4 -0.2 1.2 1.7 -1.2 2.5 -0.6 -7.5 -17.1 -4.5 -0.9 -3.1 -3.5United Kingdom 5.4 -1.4 3.6 1.5 5.2 6.3 7.6 5.3 0.2 -3.1 -0.2 1.3 0.6Canada 3.5 1.8 10.2 2.0 -0.3 -2.4 0.2 2.6 -1.0 -1.2 -0.9 0.5 0.0Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -3.0 -3.8 -4.2 3.5 4.4 5.6 1.8 2.5 1.1 0.3 1.4 0.5Korea, Rep. 2.5 -0.1 8.5 2.6 -0.6 -4.1 -2.2 4.6 5.1 -0.5 -0.8 -1.7 1.8Singapore 2.3 -0.7 3.4 5.5 4.6 3 .8 3.8 7.6 5 .9 1.0 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.5 3.7 0.2 -1.9 -2.4 -2.0 -0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 -0.6 0.6

Switzerland 1.7 0.1 5.8 9.8 -3.1 -2.2 -9.0 -2.1 -2.9 0.3 -0.3 0.4 -1.9

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates

exce t monthl fi ures, which are m/m chan e)

a/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the

period in question.17


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Average 2012 2013 2013

1999-08 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Mar Apr May June

Po l i c y R a t e snite tates . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Japan 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 2.30

Euro Area .. 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 3.00

United Kingdom 4.80 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 2.50

T e n ye a r b o n dUnited States 4.70 3.65 3.24 3.20 2.77 1.81 0.79 0.75 0.70 1.94 1.73 1.91 2.29

Japan 1.49 1.49 1.34 1.17 1.12 0.88 2.90 2.22 2.76 0.60 0.57 0.76 0.84

Euro Area .. 4.36 4.03 3.79 4.31 3.44 1.66 1.82 2.02 3.03 2.86 2.69 3.07

nite ing om . . . . . . . . . . . . .

S p r e ad s ( B a s i s p o i n t s ) b , cD e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i es .. 483 296 323 329 364 315 272 269 284 286 275 331

East Asia and Pacific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 82 126 77 193 218 259 185 156 146 147 155 151 195Indonesia .. 481 218 225 228 264 230 184 197 212 215 204 270

Phillippines .. 340 206 200 177 211 165 124 138 147 148 131 171

Malaysia 129 230 140 145 152 175 149 109 112 122 125 115 158

urope an entra sia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 262 443 229 259 255 297 232 184 177 192 196 182 231

Turkey 404 367 221 260 281 328 249 197 195 211 207 181 237

Poland 99 222 156 210 192 232 163 122 121 129 129 120 149

Latin America and Caribbean 522 522 345 353 345 371 337 308 303 317 316 314 371

Brazil 551 306 202 195 183 206 178 148 162 180 177 179 234

Mexico 206 302 187 186 188 207 174 161 167 177 169 169 213

Argentina 2920 1198 690 687 989 1063 1018 1041 1127 1212 1223 1173 1204o om ia

e ast an ort r ca ..

Egypt .. 134 173 371 502 554 485 427 509 595 595 679 692

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Pakistan .. 1186 624 922 1067 1116 1048 828 903 861 704 694 688

Sri Lanka .. 1066 369 358 414 460 416 331 352 357 352 441 411

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 172 301 167 195 206 230 178 176 190 198 190 250 268

G r o s s i n f l o w s eD e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i es .. 0 492 455 530 98 144 171 178 60 64 64 0East Asia and Pacific .. 0 144 116 140 41 37 38 53 17 13 25 0Europe and Central Asia .. 0 105 115 159 28 41 66 61 22 27 16 0

Latin America and Carribean .. 0 161 154 166 21 47 47 42 15 20 17 0

Middle East and North Africa .. 0 13 6 6 1 1 3 0 0 1 1 0

South Asia .. 0 53 33 36 5 9 12 14 3 2 4 0u - a aran r ca ..

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of daily figures. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of monthly figures.

b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.

c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.

d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.

e/In billions of US dollars.

18


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Weightsb Average 2012 2013 2013

1990 2000-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 M ar Apr M ay June

Energy .. .. 144.7 188.2 187.4 183.7 183.2 182.0 187.9 183.9 178.6 178.9 178.7

C oal, A us tralia .. 10.7 207.8 255.0 202.4 200.6 187.7 182.4 195.1 191.1 184.3 184.2 173.8

Crude o il, average .. 13.1 148.0 194.8 196.7 192.6 192.5 190.9 196.8 192.0 185.1 186.1 186.8

Natural gas , Europe .. 15.1 131.0 166.2 181.3 182.0 175.9 185.5 187.1 187.6 203.6 194.3 188.4

Non-energy 100.0 .. 173.9 209.9 190.0 189.3 191.0 186.9 185.9 181.4 176.0 176.8 174.2

Agriculture 69.1 .. 170.4 209.0 194.0 191.7 200.6 191.1 185.6 182.6 178.0 181.8 181.0

Beverages 16.9 .. 182.1 208.2 166.2 162.7 169.7 160.8 151.8 149.7 152.1 152.7 144.9

Cocoa 3.9 9.8 203.7 193.7 155.5 148.3 162.2 159.3 143.6 140.0 149.2 152.3 148.5

Coffee, arabica 8.0 3.3 170.6 236.0 162.3 158.1 158.0 141.0 132.5 130.4 130.4 128.1 120.4

Coffee, robusta 2.8 1.0 155.8 216.0 203.4 207.3 210.0 197.0 204.4 210.2 201.1 196.2 179.6

F o o d 29.4 .. 169.6 210.1 211.6 206.9 225.2 210.7 203.8 200.8 193.8 199.0 200.0

Fa ts and oils 10.1 .. 184.5 222.7 230.0 231.1 250.2 221.9 214.0 206.5 199.1 206.5 211.1

Palm oi l 2.3 4.6 213.4 266.6 236.8 257.8 235.3 191.7 202.0 202.3 199.5 201.1 204.0

Soybean meal 4.1 10.4 176.5 185.6 244.5 227.5 294.0 273.7 247.7 242.6 225.8 253.3 260.3

Soybeans 2.0 8.0 163.7 196.8 215.3 208.1 244.6 220.0 206.2 186.0 180.2 180.9 190.8

Grains 6.9 .. 171.8 238.5 244.2 227.2 264.0 258.9 248.1 247.5 234.7 241.6 241.3

M aize 1.7 6.3 188.4 295.6 302.4 273.8 3 33.1 321.4 3 09.1 3 13.2 283.7 299.5 302.4

Rice, Thai land, 5% 2.9 8.4 170.8 189.7 196.7 203.6 198.5 195.1 196.3 195.3 194.6 189.9 188.2

Wheat, US, HRW 1.9 7.2 146.8 207.6 205.6 176.5 229.4 233.4 211.0 203.3 202.3 209.8 205.7

Other foo d 12.4 .. 148.2 167.8 157.9 156.8 157.1 152.4 150.1 151.2 150.0 150.5 147.9Bananas , US 2.3 8.5 144.0 160.6 163.2 162.4 159.2 156.7 154.2 155.4 149.7 150.9 150.9

Sugar, world 7.5 4.2 215.4 263.0 217.9 215.9 215.0 198.8 187.6 187.1 180.1 178.3 172.9

Raw materials 22.8 .. 166.3 206.7 165.3 169.3 156.6 158.9 158.5 154.8 152.6 154.8 153.2

Cotton ("A" Index) 5.9 1.7 187.6 273.5 161.6 163.4 152.5 148.7 162.8 171.1 167.2 167.9 168.6

Rubber, Singapore 4.8 11.8 245.6 324.1 227.0 241.3 199.6 208.1 212.1 200.1 192.7 204.2 188.9

Sawnwoo d, Malaysia 2.9 3.0 128.6 142.5 132.9 134.0 131.1 132.6 128.2 124.7 126.5 126.4 128.1

Ferti l izers 2.7 .. 187.2 267.0 259.2 270.0 256.9 249.9 240.8 237.3 232.6 226.7 222.0

Triple superphosphate 0.9 5.2 189.5 267.2 229.3 233.5 240.7 224.4 215.9 215.9 215.9 209.9 208.5

M etals and minerals 28.2 .. 179.6 205.5 174.0 175.4 163.9 171.1 180.4 172.7 165.5 160.8 154.8

Alum inum 7.9 2.0 114.5 126.5 106.6 104.4 101.6 105.5 105.4 100.6 98.1 96.5 95.6

Co pper 9.3 12.6 204.8 240.0 216.4 214.5 210.1 215.1 215.2 207.8 196.6 197.1 190.3

Go ld .. 13.3 275.3 352.8 375.3 362.5 372.4 386.1 366.6 358.1 334.5 317.9 302.0

Nickel 2.2 9.3 147.9 155.4 119.0 116.6 111.1 115.2 117.3 113.4 106.3 101.4 96.9

Memo:

Crude Oil (US$ ) .. 13.1 79.0 104.0 105.0 102.8 102.8 101.9 105.1 102.5 98.9 99.4 99.7

T a b l e A .4 C o m m o d i t y p r i c e i n d i c e s(current US do llar index,index unless o therwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World B ank primary comm odity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars

fo r low- and middle-inco me eco nomies, rebased to 1990.

b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.

19


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July 18, 2013

Average 2012 2013 2013

1999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May

E x p o r t v a l u e sD e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i es 13.3 29.4 21.6 3.4 2.5 -9.1 18.8 16.2 -2.2 -3.6 3.0 -4.1East Asia and Pacific 15.1 30.9 19.6 6.4 18.0 -8.9 21.3 28.2 -2.6 -3.5 1.6 -4.2

ina . . . . . - . . . - . - . . - .Indonesia 9.0 35.8 28.9 -6.4 -18.0 -20.3 8.3 8.4 -0.4 -7.5 1.4 1.6

ai an . . . . . - . . - . - . . - . - .

Europe and Central Asia 14.1 19.1 25.2 1.8 -6.1 -4.4 4.7 16.1 -2.4 -5.9 5.3 -2.4Russian Federation 15.8 32.7 31.0 3.0 -21.3 -6.6 22.7 -10.2 -4.7 0.2 -1.9 -3.0Turkey 14.0 11.1 18.7 13.2 16.8 14.1 -11.1 3.1 0.3 -5.5 -1.2 5.7

o an . . . - . - . . . . - . - . . ..

atin merica an ari ean . . . . - . . . - . - . - . . - .Brazil 11.5 31.6 27.0 -4.7 -26.8 -9.0 18.7 -8.7 -7.7 4.4 6.6 -6.4Mexico 7.0 29.8 17.2 6.2 -7.9 -0.1 10.3 -8.0 0.6 -3.9 8.8 -4.7Argentina 8.0 21.8 23.2 -3.1 -29.3 31.5 1.3 -4.8 -1.9 -0.8 7.4 1.6

i e ast an ort rica . . . . - . - . . .. . .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 18.3 34.7 42.3 10.8 -4.7 -28.1 17.8 .. -5.9 .. .. ..ran . . . - . - . - . . .. . .. .. ..

Egypt 21.4 14.4 15.0 -3.3 -29.0 48.9 10.2 2.5 -2.4 -1.4 -1.3 ..

South Asia 14.3 33.5 32.5 -3.9 -10.7 -12.4 18.3 24.2 2.8 -4.2 -1.6 -2.3India 16.5 37.0 33.2 -3.9 -12.8 -14.5 20.2 28.2 2.1 -3.1 -2.9 -2.6

a istan . . . - . . . - . - . - . . - . .Bangladesh 13.4 14.9 40.1 -3.9 -4.9 -5.5 30.3 27.3 18.8 -22.7 15.7 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 13.1 35.2 23.1 -3.5 -9.7 -31.2 20.0 .. -3.4 .. .. ..South Africa 9.0 30.1 19.0 -9.4 -29.5 -16.5 8.1 4.3 3.2 -14.2 20.8 -9.5Nigeria 20.7 49.0 36.5 -0.1 1.7 -33.7 13.2 .. -7.4 .. .. ..

E x p o r t p r i c e s b,cD e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i es 4.5 8.6 12.7 -2.3 -8.5 4.1 3.9 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -0.8 ..East Asia and Pacific 2.7 5.4 10.2 -2.5 -4.1 3.6 3.2 1.4 -1.7 -0.6 -0.5 ..

ina . . . - . - . . . . - . - . - . ..Indonesia 7.5 14.5 17.4 -4.9 -9.2 -0.8 13.2 -14.5 -0.6 -1.8 -0.8 ..Thailand 2.8 9.2 5.7 0.6 0.3 0.8 1.9 -1.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1

Europe and Central Asia 3.5 5.5 13.5 -2.6 -11.4 4.3 2.4 6.5 -0.6 -1.2 -1.2 ..Russian Federation 10.3 17.7 25.8 -0.7 -25.3 12.4 9.0 -9.6 -0.9 -6.0 -3.2 ..Turkey 3.3 0.1 11.5 -2.8 -6.5 -0.4 -5.7 17.5 -0.5 -1.6 -1.6 0.5

o an . - . . - . - . - . - . . - . - . . ..

Latin America and Caribbean 4.5 1 2.9 15.9 -3.9 -13.1 6.9 1.9 -5.4 -0.6 -2.0 -1.8 ..Brazil 4.1 12.6 15.7 -4.4 -0.1 2.4 0.5 -4.5 -0.3 -2.1 -1.8 ..Mexico 4.0 12.2 14.4 -2.6 -20.2 11.2 8.2 -0.9 0.0 -1.6 -2.3 3.2

rgentina - . . . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . . ..

i e ast an ort rica . . . . . . - . .. - . .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 19.5 35.8 34.0 6.6 3.9 -41.8 59.0 -12.5 -1.9 .. .. ..Iran 15.9 26.0 29.8 0.7 -38.3 22.8 4.5 6.7 0.2 .. .. ..

Egypt 6.5 11.9 19.8 -1.7 -12.8 10.6 -0.1 -5.5 -1.0 -3.0 -1.6 ..

out sia . . . - . - . - . . . - . - . - . ..India 3.3 10.1 13.3 -3.8 -5.1 -0.1 9.4 -0.7 -0.5 -1.7 -1.4 ..

a istan . . . . - . - . . . . - . . ..Bangladesh 1.6 3.4 8.6 -2.1 1.1 3.0 0.1 5.3 1.0 -0.1 -0.3 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 10.0 23.7 24.4 -3.3 -29.1 -1.8 9.6 .. -0.2 .. .. ..

South Africa 8.6 26.4 18.3 -7.6 -19.9 -4.5 -8.1 13.1 1.5 -4.2 -2.9 ..igeria . . . . - . - . . . . .. .. ..

T a bl e A. 5 D e v e l op i n g cou n t r i e s ' m e r ch a n d i s e e x p or t grow t h(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual

rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis.

/b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual

trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries

whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

20


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Average 2012 2013 20131999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May

I m p o r t v a l u e sD e v e l o p in g c o u n t r i e s 12.9 2 9.9 2 4.2 4.5 -9.9 -3.7 21.5 14.5 -4.2 -2.5 4.4 -4.0East Asia and Pacific 16.0 37.1 24.5 5.5 -11.4 -5.0 26.7 20.1 -5.9 2.0 -0.2 -3.3

China 20.3 39.0 25.2 4.7 -14.8 -1.5 24.5 21.5 -4.9 4.6 -2.1 -4.1Indonesia 15.2 40.4 30.8 8.3 1.1 -32.3 53.6 -5.9 2.3 -11.7 5.8 0.8Thailand 12.2 37.1 25.0 8.2 -2.6 -16.9 48.9 12.8 -18.4 -1.1 6.0 -2.0

Europe and Central Asia 12.9 21.7 26.1 -0.1 -5.4 -4.3 2.1 22.4 -2.3 -10.0 11.2 -3.4Russian Federation 14.2 32.7 30.7 5.8 -14.9 1.2 11.9 28.4 -6.6 -6.4 4.9 -10.4Turkey 13.4 31.6 30.1 -1.6 -7.1 -9.0 14.5 25.8 1.7 -10.3 14.3 -1.8Poland 12.5 19.1 17.7 -6.7 -13.0 -16.6 14.5 27.3 -9.0 -0.2 -3.7 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 7.4 28.5 21.4 3 .4 -7 .4 -13.7 30.2 6.7 -6.2 -7.9 15.3 -7.1Brazil 9.6 42.1 24.7 -1.0 -3.2 -36.3 57.8 32.7 -14.1 -1.2 13.8 -8.7Mexico 6.7 28.5 16.5 5.8 -6.1 -7.7 25.8 -3.0 -6.0 -5.7 16.6 -8.1Argentina 8.6 45.9 31.1 -7.5 -15.5 4.3 13.4 21.6 3.2 -7.3 19.4 -2.9

Middle East and North Africa 12.9 14.2 15.9 11.3 36.8 -3.7 -1.8 .. 5.9 .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 11.8 12.6 23.3 18.4 20.2 -7.1 12.0 .. -2.6 .. .. ..

Iran 13.0 33.4 44.4 -2.9 100.3 4.4 -37.1 .. 7.7 .. .. ..Egypt 12.9 17.8 11.3 18.0 30.4 -41.4 1.8 -3.4 10.8 -14.3 -4.0 ..

South Asia 16.9 34.0 31.4 4.0 -37.0 23.3 30.9 4.5 -3.9 2.5 -1.9 ..India 19.2 36.4 32.4 5 .5 -40.6 30.1 37.5 -1.9 -3.9 1.9 -2.2 ..Pakistan 13.5 19.4 16.4 0.6 5.8 0.1 -8.3 11.8 0.0 5.7 1.6 ..Bangladesh 10.8 27.7 29.9 -5.4 -16.3 5.7 -21.2 .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 12.6 14.0 23.1 3.8 2.6 -3.2 10.9 .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 10.3 23.8 24.5 1.5 -7.1 -5.6 3.3 -2.9 -12.9 27.1 -12.6 ..Nigeria 20.2 9.8 24.1 -5.6 17.8 -28.5 65.0 .. .. .. .. ..

Im port pr ices b , cD e v e l o p in g c o u n t r i e s 2.6 7.8 12.3 -2.5 -7.9 1.8 4.6 -2.5 -0.2 -2.1 -2.1 ..East Asia and Pacific 3.0 7.8 12.9 -2.2 -5.9 3.4 4.9 -4.0 0.1 -2.5 -2.4 ..

China 3.3 9.1 13.3 -3.2 -5.0 4.1 5.5 -2.3 0.1 -2.8 -2.5 ..Indonesia 5.2 12.2 19.1 -2.4 -15.0 12.7 3.3 -7.4 0.0 -4.0 -1.8 ..

Thailand 2.2 -0.1 6.0 3.5 0.1 -8.5 -1.0 -12.6 -0.2 -1.1 -2.3 0.8

Europe and Central Asia 0.6 7.0 8.6 -7.1 -10.6 -5.4 2.8 5.4 -1.3 -3.0 -3.0 ..Russian Federation 2.2 5.6 10.3 -2.8 -1.2 2.1 3.7 -0.5 -1.5 -0.4 -0.6 ..Turkey -7.6 11.6 3.4 -9.4 -14.4 -8.5 17.1 10.7 -1.2 -3.4 -5.0 0.3Poland 2.1 -3.3 9 .6 -12.2 -24.9 -22.2 -10.0 21.4 -5.0 -2.6 6.1 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 1.9 6.9 9.6 -3.0 -6.6 -6.6 0.8 1.0 -1.3 -0.5 0.8 1.0Brazil 1.7 16.7 20.1 -13.3 -38.3 -21.8 10.9 6.9 1.2 -1.9 -1.2 -2.8Mexico 2.7 4.3 7.2 1.0 -1.8 3.1 1.9 -2.1 0.4 -0.3 -1.2 0.8Argentina -5.4 -5.0 -4.8 -10.3 12.7 -23.8 -23.2 -1.1 -1.1 -1.5 15.3 ..

Middle East and North Africa 4.5 6.3 9.6 2.5 0.4 11.3 5.6 .. 1.0 .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.4 4.8 10.5 -2.1 1.0 2.2 1.5 2.0 0.4 .. .. ..Iran 3.6 5.8 13.6 -1.5 -2.0 9.8 3.8 -8.4 3.0 .. .. ..Egypt 3.4 6.5 15.7 -2.2 -2.1 11.4 1.2 -2.6 1 .5 -2.5 -0.8 ..

South Asia 6.3 14.5 21.2 -0.1 -18.8 7.6 10.2 -8.7 -1.2 -3.4 -3.0 ..

India 6.8 16.0 21.5 -0.1 -21.0 10.9 7.0 -6.1 -1.4 -3.7 -3.0 ..Pakistan 7.8 13.9 23.8 4.7 3.8 -15.7 10.9 -6.1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.2 ..Bangladesh 3.0 6.1 14.1 -3.4 -0.2 9.8 2.2 -6.0 0.0 .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 3.3 7 .1 13.6 -1.9 -5.3 6.9 3.0 .. 0.3 .. .. ..

South Africa 2.8 7.0 12.8 -1.9 -5.8 5.1 4.2 -1.5 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0 ..igeria . . . - . - . . . . . .. .. ..

Table A.6 D eveloping countries ' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual

rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis.

/b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual

trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries

whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

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US$ bn. % GDP 2012 2013 2013

2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May

World -168.7 -0.3 -66.6 -14.9 -79.7 -125.8 -38.0 -111.3 -147.4 -68.0 -106.2 147.0 -136.6 -49.8High-income coun tries a -418.9 -1.0 -71.7 -3.2 44.7 60.7 56.4 58.6 61.8 120.6 25.0 322.4 131.3 218.1

Industrial countries -499.8 -1.2 -320.9 -411.8 -568.8 -564.4 -564.8 -521.1 -565.1 -425.5 -513.3 -264.6 -431.7 -421.1nite tates - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .

Japan 183.2 3.7 27.9 75.3 -32.6 -86.8 -69.8 -100.8 -110.3 -110.7 -141.3 -85.3 -102.4 -91.0Euro Area -19.6 -0.2 53.7 35.6 28.9 147.0 146.8 173.3 157.0 230.8 218.1 277.9 270.8 ..United Kingdom -73.6 -2.8 -130.4 -154.0 -161.7 -170.9 -180.9 -158.0 -175.2 -172.8 -181.2 -169.8 -161.0 ..

Other high income 80.9 4.2 -320.9 -411.8 -568.8 -564.4 -564.8 -521.1 -565.1 -425.5 25.0 322.4 131.3 218.1Hong Kong (China) 30.5 12.8 -28.9 -43.1 -54.3 -61.5 -61.1 -64.8 -66.8 -59.0 -63.7 -62.9 -61.4 -70.3Singapore 26.9 13.9 23.73 40.61 43.73 28.92 33.62 30.00 22.83 28.14 27.37 38.38 39.71 55.61

aiwan ina . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Developing coun tries 293.5 1.8 4.8 -12.2 -125.7 -188.5 -95.9 -171.7 -211.6 -197.0 -133.5 -194.5 -283.9 -275.2ast sia an aci ic . . . . . . . . . . . . . .China 426.1 11.5 195.1 182.7 147.7 219.1 283.1 250.0 255.3 335.1 398.0 230.8 316.6 259.5Indonesia 0.6 0.1 19.6 22.1 26.0 -1.6 -3.9 3.7 -12.7 -6.0 -10.8 -1.4 -9.4 -8.1Thailand -0.1 0.0 18.9 10.4 -6.5 -18.1 -15.6 -8.4 -25.4 -33.6 -22.4 -16.7 -31.8 -27.2Malaysia 38.9 19.7 33.7 34.3 40.6 30.7 30.4 26.0 33.7 14.6 23.5 13.4 6.7 12.2

Europe and Central Asia .. .. -99.6 -130.2 -167.7 -157.8 -159.0 -157.2 -154.8 -169.9 -182.1 -142.1 -187.8 -176.3Russian Federation 102.4 6.0 112.4 149.3 196.4 193.3 189.2 179.5 196.8 160.5 152.8 176.6 150.4 171.9Turkey -41.3 -5.7 - 38.4 - 71.5 -106.0 - 84.3 - 84.0 - 73.3 - 85.9 - 98.9 -106.4 -87.8 -123.3 -110.0Poland -29.0 -5.6 -13.0 -18.3 -20.6 -13.9 -17.8 -7.1 -11.3 -6.0 2.2 -9.9 8.8 ..

zec epu ic - . - . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Latin America and Caribbean -21.6 -0.5 -36.8 -49.3 -46.9 -60.2 -78.9 -36.3 -74.5 -113.7 -124.3 -59.1 -141.2 -102.1razi - . - . . . . . . . . - . - . . - . - .

Mexico -15.8 -1.6 -4.7 -3.1 -1.5 0.0 -1.0 6.2 -6.0 -10.9 -4.6 2.4 -25.5 -10.1Argentina 7.6 2.6 17.1 11.5 9.7 12.6 9.7 14.4 12.5 8.0 5.1 10.0 2.3 6.1Colombia -6.7 -3.0 0.0 -0.6 2.8 1.2 -1.8 0.5 2.3 -2.6 0.0 -1.1 -6.7 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 17.0 52.2 64.2 33.0 22.6 7.0 39.5 .. 9.7 .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 132.9 27.3 80.7 128.9 203.1 215.2 223.4 196.3 206.4 .. 179.1 .. .. ..Iran 0.0 0.0 29.5 39.3 41.3 16.4 15.4 -18.2 11.6 .. 21.7 .. .. ..

gypt - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . ..Algeria 0.04 0.03 4.5 16.1 26.3 5.7 4.0 1.2 1.1 .. 1.5 .. .. ..

South Asia .. .. -117.2 -158.0 -204.8 -241.8 -200.5 -241.4 -267.3 -254.6 -249.9 -241.6 -262.4 -258.8India .. .. - 91.6 -123.8 -162.0 -199.3 -158.7 -200.4 -227.0 -205.8 -201.1 -190.8 -209.3 -205.9

Pakistan -15.7 -9.8 -14.2 -16.6 -18.8 -19.6 -20.2 -19.1 -18.8 -21.1 -21.6 -21.1 -23.8 -24.0ang a es .. .. - . - . - . - . - . - . - . .. - . .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa -29.9 -3.0 -13.7 32.9 40.5 14.6 25.3 -5.6 1.3 .. 22.0 .. .. ..out rica - . - . - . . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .

Nigeria 20.3 9.3 9.0 30.3 47.3 50.5 54.1 47.9 44.1 .. 48.5 .. .. ..

Memo:

OECD .. .. -343.6 -463.4 -656.0 -636.5 -635.4 -580.5 -645.4 -527.3 -618.2 -338.6 -568.1 -515.6Developing excl. China .. .. -190.6 -195.1 -273.3 -408.2 -379.9 -422.6 -467.8 -521.6 -534.3 -387.6 -595.0 -507.4

eve oping oi exporters . .. . . . . . . . .. . .. .. ..eve oping non-oi exporters .. .. - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - . - .

CAB

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)

a/ Seasonally adjusted

22


23/26

July 18, 2013

Weights Average 2012 2013 2013

1995 2000-09 2 010 2011 2012 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Mar Apr May June

W o r l d 100.0 94.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..H i g h - i n c o m e c o u n t r i e s 78.3 .. 8.8 6.0 -1.3 - 3.4 1.9 - 1.8 - 4.5 - 1.5 - 2.0 - 0.6 - 0.3

Industrial countries 70.6 .. 8.9 6.1 -1.3 -3.4 1.7 -2.1 -4.9 -1.6 -2.1 -0.6 0.0

United States (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Japan 7.4 112.0 6.7 10.1 -0.1 -1.1 -4.9 -14.0 -18.8 -1.7 -3.1 -3.1 3.7

Euro Area 29.5 .. -4.7 5.0 -7.6 .. .. .. .. -3.0 0.6 -0.4 1.6

United Kingdom 5.6 0.6 -0.9 3.8 -1.1 -1.8 2.2 -1.3 -2.9 -2.5 1.5 -0.2 1.2

Other high income 7.7 101.4 7.6 5.0 -1.6 -3.6 4.9 2.1 0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -1.1 -3.6

Hong Kong (China) 3.7 7.8 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Singapore 2.3 1.6 6 .7 8.4 0.6 -1.7 5.3 2.1 1.2 -0.7 0.7 -0.9 -0.8

Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.0 4.9 7.2 -0.6 -2.3 3.8 0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 -0.6

D e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r ie s 21.7 115.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..East Asia and Pacific 7.5 100.4 8.9 0.6 -4.9 - 7.1 - 4.7 - 4.7 - 3.9 - 0.3 - 0.1 - 0.3 - 0.9

China 2.7 7.9 0.9 4.7 2.5 1.0 1.8 1.4 2.9 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.1

Indonesia 1.1 9360.6 14.3 3.6 -6.4 -9.5 -6.7 -6.4 -5.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -1.2

Thailand 1.3 38.9 8.2 4.1 -1.9 -3.9 1.1 4.0 4.7 1.0 1.5 -2.3 -3.4

Malaysia 1.4 3.7 9.4 5.3 -0.9 -3.2 3.1 -0.7 1.4 -0.4 1.9 0.9 -3.9

Europe an d Central Asia 4.3 94.5 -5.5 -30.9 -3 1.5 -30.1 -1.2 -4.4 -5.4 -0 .6 0.0 -0.2 -0.5

Russian Federation 1.5 28.6 4.6 3.3 -5.3 -8.7 0.5 -0.9 -1.9 -2.0 -1.6 -0.1 -3.2

Turkey .. 1.3 3.2 -10.3 -6.7 -3.7 2.5 0.6 -1.9 -1.7 0.7 -1.7 -3.8

Poland 0.5 3.5 3.4 1.8 -8.9 -11.0 3.6 2.5 3.2 -2.7 1.0 -1.4 -0.9

Czech Republic 0.5 26.6 -0.2 8.0 -9.6 -13.8 -3.2 -1.2 -0.4 -3.7 -0.1 -0.6 2.0

Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 142.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Brazil 1.1 2.3 13.6 5.1 -14.3 -19.4 -12.6 -11.4 -5.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.8 -6.3

Mexico 1.7 10.8 6.9 1.6 -5.5 -6.5 5.4 2.7 8.3 1.8 2.4 -0.8 -5.1

Argentina 0.4 2.7 -4.7 -5.2 -9.3 -9.7 -11.4 -13.4 -15.1 -1.5 -1.3 -1.6 -1.8

Colombia 0.3 2329.3 13.6 2.8 2.8 -0.1 6.4 0.4 -4.2 -1.0 -0.9 -1.2 -3.0

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 163.8 0.4 0.0 -9.4 -10.0 -10.0 -2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Iran 0.4 .. 0.4 0.0 -9.6 -10.2 -10.2 -2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Egypt 0.3 5.2 -1.4 -5.2 -2.1 -2.0 -2.2 -9.8 -13.0 -0.8 -1.5 -1.2 -0.5

Algeria 0.3 73.4 -1.8 1 .1 -5.9 -9.4 -6.1 -4.6 -4

developing trend of global economies by world bank july 2013

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