development of an urban growth model

Development of an urban growth modelDevelopment of an urban growth model

funded by EC’s FP7 Marie Curie Fellowship

using high - resolution historical data

Kiril Stanilov, April 2010 CASA

advances in astronomy physics genetics


advances in astronomy physics genetics

inquiries in urban modeling


data

Greater London


data

Greater London

Ordnance Survey County Series 1:2,500


data

Greater London



data

Greater London



data

Greater London

1875 1895 1915 1935 1960 1985 2005



Land use classification

used in model digitized in GIS interpreted from OS maps used in model digitized in GIS interpreted from OS maps

residential apartments low and mid-rise apartments (2 - 6 stories) commercial old fabric old fabrichigh-rise apartments high-rise apartments (over 6 stories) general generalcottage houses cottage houses retail retailterrace houses terrace houses entertainment public housesmews mews movie housessemi-detached houses semi-detached houses dance hallssmall lot detached houses small lot detached houses garages garagesdetached houses detached houses office officelodges lodge industrial industrial works

inn millshotel wharf

institutional public city hall dockslibrary depotpolice station breweryfire station malthousepost office utilities water workshospital gas worksasylum sewer worksalmshouse recreation parks parkspenitentiary commonsprison greensmuseum cemeteries cemeteriesconvalescent home burial groundsmilitary barracks recreation golf course

educational daycare athletic clubschool recreation groundcollege playgrounduniversity stadia stadia

religious church airports airports airportsconvent transportation roads roadsrectory railway lines railway linespriory water rivers riversfriar canals canalssynagogue soft estates estatestemple farms farmshermitage vacant undeveloped undeveloped

allotment gardens allotment gardensnurseries nurseriescleared cleared


1875 - 2005 residential uses

terraced housing

semi-detached housing

detached housing

multi – family housing

1875 spatial structure

1875�developmentindustrial�uses



1875�development

1875�95�developmentindustrial�uses



1875�development

1875�95�development


industrial�uses



1875�development




industrial�uses



1875�development





industrial�uses



1875�development






industrial�uses



1875�development








industrial�uses

1875 - 95 1895 - 15

1915 - 35 1935 - 60

1960 - 85 1985 - 05

1875 - 2005 land development patterns

nucleation

diffusion

infill


1875 Distance to roads - arterial

developed�land

arterial�roads


1875 Distance to roads - connector

developed�land

connector�roads


distance to cbd

residential�1915�35


distance to cbd



distance to cbd



1875 Distance to rail stations

residentialcommercial

rail�station




rail�station




rail�station



residential�development�1915�35rail�station



residential�1915�35developed�land�1915

rail�station


Identification of suburban centres

residential

commercial


1875 - 1935 accessibility

distance to arterial roads

distance to connector roads

distance to rail stations

distance to CBD


1875 - 95

1915 - 35

1895 - 15

1875 accessibility

rail�station

tram�line


1875 accessibility

rail�station

tram�line


modeling urban land use

Kiril Stanilov, March 2010 CASA

1875

2005



1875

2005



Conclusions


2005 modeled2005 actual

1875

Conclusions



1875

Conclusions



1875

Conclusions

1895

modeledactual


Conclusions

1895

1915

modeledactual


Conclusions

1895

1915

1935

modeledactual


Conclusions

1895

1915

1935

1960

modeledactual


Conclusions

1895

1915

1935

1960

1985

modeledactual


Conclusions

1895

1915

1935

1960

1985

2005

modeledactual

development of an urban growth model

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