development of broadband in thailand tct seminar on “future communication technologies” january...
TRANSCRIPT
Development of Broadbandin Thailand
TCT Seminar on “Future Communication Technologies”
January 29, 2010Miracle Grand Hotel, Bangkok
Dr Supot TiarawutDirector
Telecommunication Research and Industrial Development Institute, Office of NTC
Contents
• Broadband vs. Economy• What’s in the ranking?• Current market status• Technology review• Issues in broadband expansion• ICT Master Plan (2009-2013)• Proposed strategy
Broadband vs. Economy
• Obama's stimulus package of US$7.2 billion for broadband investment
• Australian government invest US$3.1 billion in national broadband network.
Telecom investment and GDP
Denotes 1-way relationship
Denotes 2-way relationship
Source: TRIDI
TRIDI's study of Telecom investment and GDP showspositive causal relationship between telecom investment and GDP growth
Source: Global Information Technology Report 2009 – 2010, WEF
Country Individual Usage Rank2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Thailand 64 65 58 61 67 70 69Viet Nam 81 79 82 91 92 92 90Singapore 9 18 12 14 10 18 7Malaysia 43 31 39 44 42 45 45Indonesia 77 84 81 83 90 97 107Philippines 57 72 70 80 77 88 91Korea 1 15 2 5 11 15 20Japan 6 12 10 19 22 22 13China 61 55 47 63 80 80 83
What’s in the Ranking?
Mobile Market
Source: NTC
-
20
40
60
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
Millions
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Mobile Sub.64,049,329
Growth rate 2.33 %
Fixed-line Market
Source: NTC
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
กรุ�งเทพและปรุ�มณฑล ต่�างจั�งหวั�ด
BMA 3.73 M
Provinces 3.56 M
Total 7.29 M
Internet Users
Source: NECTEC
-
2,500,000
5,000,000
7,500,000
10,000,000
12,500,000
15,000,000
17,500,000
2534
2535
2536
2537
2538
2539
2540
2541
2542
2543
2544
2545
2546
2547
2548
2549
2550
2551
16,100,000
Average Growth30% per year
Average Growth30% per year
Broadband Subscribers
Source: NTC
-250,000500,000750,000
1,000,0001,250,0001,500,0001,750,0002,000,000
4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
0%
2%4%
6%
8%10%
12%
Broadband per household 1,804,152
9.92% of Household
Broadband/Available Line
Source: NTC
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09
Broadband line Available line
75.24%
24.76%
International Bandwidth
Source: NECTEC
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,0001Q
003Q
001Q
013Q
011Q
023Q
021Q
033Q
031Q
043Q
041Q
053Q
051Q
063Q
061Q
073Q
071Q
083Q
081Q
093Q
09
International Bandwidth
Thailand Market Status
• Population 65 million• Fixed-line subscribers 7.0 million• Mobile subscribers 64.7 million• Internet users 18.1 million• Broadband subscribers 1.9 million(as of Q3-09)
Technology review: in context of Thailand
• FTTH– High speed access to homes and businesses– Meets customers’ needs on bandwidth growth– However,
• Fiber plant rollout is expensive• It takes times to build coverage• Existing fiber is far from customers• Not in the spotlight (of Thai operators)
Technology review: in context of Thailand
• xDSL– Over 1.8 M subscribers– 3-12 Mbps service is now available– Not all customers can get 12 Mbps service– Many customers only get 1 Mbps because of the
distance from DSLAM.
Technology review: in context of Thailand
• PLC– Many trials were performed with electrical
authorities.– The technology still has many flaws.
Technology review: in context of Thailand
• 3G / HSPA– Most wanted technology in Thailand– Operators are ready either to upgrade their
network to 3G or invest and build new wireless network
Technology review: in context of Thailand
• WiMAX– Anticipated as a contender for 3G and LTE– Not getting support from key service providers
worldwide– Business model for WiMAX is not clear.
Technology review: in context of Thailand
• LTE– Gaining support from operators worldwide– Equipments and handsets still expensive– Thailand: not suitable for mass adoption in the
near future – cost of handset beyond reach of most people
Technology review: in context of Thailand
• Wi-Fi– Key user of ISM and U-NII band– Most popular indoor access mode for
broadband services
Technology review: BIG picture
• Fixed and wireless together provide access to the same services for consumers.
Application
ADSLFTTH HSPA
Wi-Fi
WiMAX
Technology review: BIG picture
• Customers can use facebook, Gmail, twitter, IM, video streaming … from their computers, phones, ipods or other devices.
Issues in Broadband Expansion (1)
• Coverage– Fixed broadband stands at 10% of household– Upper limit at fixed line penetration of 11%– Mobile networks cover many more subscribers
• Speed– Access speed of ADSL for most sub. is limited to
3 Mbps– Current access with 2G is limited in speed and
far from ubiquitous
Issues in Broadband Expansion(2)
• Technology – Immediate solution: going for 3G– For longer term
• considering FTTH roll-out as bandwidth and speed requirement grows.
• Migration from 3G to LTE
Issues in Broadband Expansion (3)
• USO– Limited roll-out– Service definition changing to include
data/internet– Challenges to expand service coverages
• IT Literacy• Affordability
ICT Master Plan (2009-2013)
Broadband Target• Provide at least 4 Mbps access to households in
major cities in every province• Provide access to 50% household coverage to
the rest areas• Provide at least 10 Mbps access to every high
school• Provide at least 4 Mbps access to every
community’s learning/ health-care centers
Sources: World Telecommunication/ICT Indicator Database
12th Edition 2008
Country
Total Annual Investment in Telecommunication (Millions US$)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Valu
e%
GDPValu
e%
GDPValu
e%
GDPValu
e%
GDPValu
e%
GDP
Thailand401.
00.3
508.0
0.3657.
00.4
769.0
0.4 na na
Korea1,569.0
0.35,369.0
0.85,675.0
0.710,222.0
0.8 na na
Japan20,422.0
0.523,199.0
0.524,450.0
0.517,836.0
0.4 na na
China26,782.0
1.626,559.0
1.425,601.0
1.127,768.0
1.029,969.0
0.9
Investment in Telecommunication
Proposed Strategy
• Accelerate licensing of 3G and beyond, to stimulate mobile internet
• Implement broadband internet to schools with FTTX, as part of a new economic stimulus package
• Utilize 3G/WiMax networks to provide USO, including voice and basic data services
• Incentive and stimulus for implementing FTTX