development of conceptual models for the arcn coastal ecosystems workshop torre jorgenson, abr diane...
TRANSCRIPT
Development of Conceptual Models for the ARCN Coastal Ecosystems
Workshop
Torre Jorgenson, ABRDiane Sanzone, National Park Service
OBJECTIVES
• Review conceptual models for Central and Southwestern Networks (General vs Specific)
• Discuss sequential steps used to develop coastal models for the Arctic Network
• Review coastal models
Central Alaska Network: Thematic Model
Southwest Alaska Network: Specific Key Components
SWAN Ecosystem Model: Linkages
SWAN Ecosystem Model: Stressors
ARCN Coastal Model DevelopmentWORKSHOP ACTIVITIES• Work within thematic working groups• Partitioned ecological variability at landscape level to
evaluate key processes (e.g. lagoons versus tundra cliffs)
• Developed questions directed toward monitoring of key components and processes
• Create submodels as desired• Developed a consensus of key monitoring components
and processes by group ranking of questionsPOST-WORKSHOP SYNTHESIS• Identified key words that need to be incorporated in
models• Identify model structure (e.g., box and arrow, landscape
graphic)• Model graphics
Examples of QuestionsQuestion 1: How are nutrients cycled in the “open” and “closed” coastal lagoon systems of CAKR and BELA ? Are nutrient levels changing? (11) Attribute (Component/Process): nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur Potential Driver/ Stressor of Change: various
Question 5: What is the effect of ice cover change/ open ocean season on shoreline ecosystems? (22)
Attribute (Component/Process): timing of sea ice melting and snow packPotential Driver/ Stressor of Change: climate changePotential Measures: thickness/ density of ice
Question 9: How is the abundance, diversity and productivity of species living in coastal habitats changing? (18)Attribute (Component/Process): bird abundance, diversity and reproductive capacity; changes in composition and productivity of coastal vegetation; changes in coastal invertebrates; changes in rare and endemic species populations; expansion of native species into the parks; presence and distribution of invasive/ exotic species Potential Driver/ Stressor of Change: climate change; forage pressure on vegetation
LONGER OPEN WATERSEASON
More use by cetacea,Spotted, bearded seals,birds
ProductivityIncr. pelagic?Decr. Epontic?Match/mismatch?
PagophyllicPinnipeds
Changed preycommunity
Critical habitatChanges!
Decreasedsubstrate
Increased erosion(longer season)
Climate influenceOn terr. Environ.
Submodel for Nearshore Water
Brandon Kelly 2004
Open Lagoon Systems of ARCN
Freshwater Food Web+
Marine Food Web
Megafauna presentLagoon Does Not Freeze to Bottom
Due to High Conductivity
SUMMER
WINTER
Freeze
Thaw
Marine Food Web
Terrestrial Food Web
Mechanistic Shoreline Erosion Model with Feedbacks
Owen Mason
Conceptual Modeling
Key Components and Processes
+Linkages and Interactions
+Food Webs
+Global, Regional, and Local
Stressors
=
One Honking
MonitoringChallenge
Summer
DON
DOC
NO 3
Therm okarstSalin ity
E elgrass
Tem perature
W ind
O rga nic M at
G round ice
A q u a t ic C o n ta m in a n tsO rg a n ism s
W a terS ed im en ts
P O4
A ctiv e D unes
I nactive Dunes Tida l
F lats
P re c ip i ta t io n
C lam s, Ch iro n o m id s, Iso p o d sPo lych etes, Am p h ip o d s, Mysid
Sea L evel
Wave Energy
S ea
S edim en t
D ischarge
Winter
ARCN Coastal Ecosystems Overview ModelBarrier Island and Lagoon Ecosystems
Rocky Coast Ecosystems
Tundra Cliff and Sandy Shore Ecosystems
Delta Ecosystems
Potential Regional and Anthropogenic StressorsATMOSPHERIC
Air Temperature Storminess
Snow Cover Precipitation Nitrogen Input Contaminants Albedo
OCEANOGRAPHIC
Sea Level Storm surges
Sea Ice Fetch Length Wave Energy
GEOMORPHIC Shoreline Erosion Barrier Island Migration
Marine Sedi. Transport Land Sediment Deposit. Dune Formation/Scouring Thermokarst Active Layer
HYDROLOGIC
Precipitation Evaporation
River Discharge Lake Extent Nutrient Load Sediment Load
ANTHROPOGENIC
Airborne Pollution Mining Activity Oil and Gas Activity Subsistence Harvest
Recreation Transportation Noise Land Use Regs. Villages, Inholdings Pollution
BIOTICVegetation, InvertebratesFish, Birds, Mammals
Population Abundance Range Shifts Community Structure Foodweb
Exotic Species
Produced for ARCN-NPS by M. T. Jorgenson and D. M. Sanzone
Arctic Food Web
Inuit Tapiriit
Kanatami
Terrestrial Model Development
• Consider whether ecosystem variability needs to be partitioned (e.g. rocky alpine vs. ice-rich lowland; boreal vs. tundra)
• Develop monitoring questions• Identify key components and/or processes• Identify linkages among ecosystem
components• Prioritize monitoring variables (“vital signs”)• Emphasize content rather than modeling
mechanics