development of guidelines on the multi-purpose evaluation ... · including the evaluation of the...
TRANSCRIPT
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Development of Guidelines on the Multi-Purpose
Evaluation of Hydropower Projects
Initiative for Sustainable Hydropower Project ISH02
ISH Forum on Sustainable Hydropower
MRC-OSV, Vientiane, Lao PDR
November 12, 2015
Dr. Bruce Aylward
On behalf of ISH02 Team
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Structure
Overview of Guidelines
Guidelines Process
Evaluation and Valuation
Hydropower Planning Support Tool
HPST Results - Multi-Criteria Analysis
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Guidelines Overview
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
ISH02/Guidelines Focus
Address the need to more explicitly integrate social and
environmental costs and benefits in hydropower
development planning.
Evaluate hydropower projects from a multi-purpose
perspective to increase overall economic benefits and
decrease adverse effects on other water uses
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
ISH02/Guidelines Goals
Provide guidelines for valuation of the assessed socio-
economic and environmental costs and benefits of hydropower,
including the evaluation of the multi-purpose use of the
schemes;
Provide methods for these valuations to be internalized in the
economic or other analysis and integrated with the strategic
power planning approaches of the member countries;
Achieve the above goals in consultative and participatory way
with the responsible national authorities; and
Disseminate the guidelines and methods to national authorities
and other stakeholder in the lower Mekong Basin
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
ISH02/Guidelines Goals
Develop a practical and replicable method
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Economics
Environ-ment
Social
Fully
comprehensive
planning
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
ISH02/Guidelines Team
MRCS International
Consultants
National Consultants
Mr Voradeth Phonekeo
ISH Programme
Coordinator
Dr Armando Balloffet
Team Leader
Environmental Specialist
Mr Sok Bun Heng
Cambodia
Mr Simon Krohn
ISH International
Technical Officer
Dr James Taylor
Social Specialist
Mr Lamphone
Dimanivong
Lao PDR
Mr Piseth Chea
Riparian Professional
Dr Bruce Aylward
Economist
Dr Warapong
Tungittiplakorn
Thailand
Dr Sarah Kruse
Case Study Economist
Dr Tran Van Dat
Viet Nam
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Portfolio Planning Process
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Scope for Guidelines Application
all planned hydropower projects in a country
all planned hydropower projects in the Mekong
all planned hydropower projects in a sub-basin of the
Mekong or
a suite of alternatives for a single site or a single cascade
of dams on a river
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
So, what have we accomplished?
Organized available information in a practical form for basin planning purposes
Developed a model that uses the information to value and consistently compare positive and negative economic impacts of several hydropower projects in a basin
Identified and included non-monetized environmental and social indicators in a multi-criteria analysis
Developed a mechanism for stakeholder involvement
Developed and tested guidelines for a 10-step process for Evaluation of Hydropower and Multi-Purpose Project Portfolios
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
ISH02/Guidelines Products
ANNEX 2:
Practice Guide on Consultation, and
Social and Environmental Indicators
ANNEX 1:
Practice Guide on Economic
Evaluation and Valuation of
Hydropower and Multi-Purpose Dams
ANNEX 3:
User Manual for the Hydropower
Planning Support Tool
Sustainable
Hydropower
Planning
Support Tool
MAIN
REPORT:
Guidelines
Process
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Guidelines Process
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Guidelines 10-Step Process
TEAM ESTABLISHMENT AND PROBLEM DEFINITION
Step 1: Appoint the Portfolio Planning Facilitator and Planning Team
Step 2: Identify the Scope of the Planning Effort Step 3: Identify and Recruit Stakeholder Group
Step 4: Inception Stakeholder Workshop to Finalize the Scope
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS
Step 5: Joint Fact Finding
Step 6a: Economic Valuation and Evaluation of the Costs and Benefits
Step 6b: Assessment of non- monetary social and environmental Indicators
Step 6c: Adapt/validate decision support tool
STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION AND MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS
Step 7: Planning Workshop
REPORTING AND DECISION MAKING
Step 8: Reporting
Step 9: Decision-Making
PROCESS REVIEW AND LESSONS LEARNED
Step 10: Evaluate the process, methods and tools and modify the Guidelines as required.
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Guidelines Process
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Guidelines Process
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Guidelines Process
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Evaluation and Valuation
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Financial Analysis
Perspective: project proponent
Costs to the proponent
Benefits to the proponent
Financial Projections
Financial Analysis
Discounted cash flows
Net present value (NPV) of project
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Economic Analysis
Perspective: national/regional economy
Costs to the economy
Benefits to the economy
Economic Adjustments
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Discounted costs and benefits
Net present value (NPV)
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Multi-Criteria Analysis
Social indicators
Environmental indicators
Stakeholder weighting
Normalised indicator scores
Economic NPV
Risk-weighted cost-benefit ratio
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Impact Framework
Direct Impacts
Costs and Benefits
Hydropower and Multi-purpose
External Impacts
Agriculture
Fisheries
Ecosystem Services
Human Population
Hydrologic Function
Land Use
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Impact Framework and HPST Monetized Values
Framework Location HPST
Economic Valuation
Direct Direct
Hydropower Project Site Hydropower
Multi-purpose Local Multi-purpose
External External
Agriculture
Local
Property
Fisheries Land
Ecosystem Services Livelihoods
Human Population
Hydrologic Services
Downstream
Flow Regime
Land Use Fish Migration
Sedimentation
Global Carbon
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Hydropower Planning
Support Tool “HPST”
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Hydropower Planning Support Tool (HPST)
Content Flow
Analysis
Preferences
Data
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Basin Workbook
Monetary
Financial
Economic
Non-Monetary
Inputs Data Workbook
Basin
Projects
Parameters
Financial Projections
Financial Value
Direct Costs & Benefits
Local Costs
Downstream Costs
Financial and Economic
Environmental
Social
Stakeholder Inputs
Criteria Weights
Results: MCA
Cleaned Project Data
Raw Data
Data Testing
HPST Overview
Other Information
Economic Data
Ecological Studies
Economic Valuation
ISH01 Data Carbon Benefits
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HPST Results Multi-Criteria Analysis
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
HPST Results
Normalisation of Non-monetized Indicators
Normalisation: scaling disparate scores or values to
values between 0 and 1
Setting maximum value in the data set of total indicator scores, D,
for all project scores to a value of 1
All other values are then set as proportions of the maximum value
The normalized score, N, of an indicators score for any
project, SP, is simply equal to the variables score Sp
divided by the maximum value in the data set:
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
HPST Results
Risk-Weighted Cost-Benefit Ratio
Risk-weighted benefit-cost ration, BCRRW. This is simply
calculated for all projects, P, where NP is the normalized
indicator score
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
HPST Results
Example
Project1 1 140 100 (40) 0.71 4 124 188 64 1.52 1
Project2 1 345 375 30 1.09 3 334 309 (25) 0.93 3
Project3 1 255 300 45 1.18 2 17 9 (8) 0.55 2
Project4 1 530 605 75 1.14 1 194 (50) (244) (0.26) 4
4
CapitalCosts
Operations
Total
Ben
efit-CostRatio
CapitalCosts
Operations
Total
Ben
efit-CostRatio
Rakning
FinancialIndicators(allPV) EconomicIndicators(allPV)
Rakning
Include(1=YES)
Project
Name
Project1 1
Project2 1
Project3 1
Project4 1
4
Include(1=YES)
Project
Name
LostLand/M
W
Displaced
Persons/MW
EthnicM
inorities
Affected
Cultural/Scared
Values
Impact-ESAs
Project-Peaking
Reservoir-
SurfaceArea
River-Affected
Downstream
River-Im
pounded
0.85 0.08 0.15 0.23 0.38 0.38 0.23 0.15 0.15
0.85 0.08 0.15 0.23 0.26 0.38 0.11 0.15 0.15 2.37 1.00 4
0.03 0.00 0.10 0.08 0.13 0.38 0.23 0.01 0.01 0.98 0.41 3
0.17 - 0.05 - 0.13 0.19 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.56 0.24 1
0.10 0.01 0.10 0.15 0.13 0.19 0.03 0.06 0.06 0.83 0.35 2
4.73TotalWScore:
Social&EnvironmentalIndicators
TotalW
eightedScore
TotalN
orm
alized
Score
Ranking
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
HPST Results
Example
Project1 1
Project2 1
Project3 1
Project4 1
4
Include(1=YES)
Project
Name
1
3
2
4
Econo
Rakning
Social&
2.37 1.00 4 1.52 1.52 3
0.98 0.41 3 0.93 2.24 2
0.56 0.24 1 0.55 2.30 1
0.83 0.35 2 (0.26) (0.73) 4
4.73 1.33TotalWScore: MeanRW-BCR:
Social&
TotalW
eightedScore
TotalN
orm
alized
Score
Ranking
TripleBottomLine
Ben
efit-CostRatio
Risk-WeightedBCR
Ranking
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ECOSYSTEM ECONOMICS
Thank you!
More Questions?
Contact
ISH02 Team Leader
Dr. Armando Balloffet
or
ISH02 Economist
Dr. Bruce Aylward