Development of Russian-Turkish energy cooperation as the factor of Turkey's role in the world economic system (Turkish Stream factor)

Dr. Doç. Alexander SotnichenkoSaint-Petersburg State University School of International Relations Russia

Turkish stream

Why "Turkish Stream" is a very profitable project for Turkey?

Transition risks Turkey gets stable gas supply of the western

regions. Now it depends on unreliable transit country (Ukraine). East European countries have already encountered the problem of insufficient reliability of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. In 2009, due to unsanctioned tapping of gas by Ukraine Slovakia, Bulgaria and Moldova faced fuel crisis in winter. The continuation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine can influence the uninterrupted transit of Russian gas to Turkey too (14 BCM 45% at risk).

Control the transit Turkey becomes an important transit country for

Russian gas to southern Europe and control its transit. In the future, this may become an instrument of political pressure on the consumers. Ankara has its interests in the Balkans. Controlling the pipeline could be an important political factor in its foreign policy. Turkish leaders have repeatedly stated their desire to turn the country into a gas transportation hub of global importance. Implementation of the "Turkish Stream" project actually supports these aspirations.

Money profit

Turkey receives a significant gas discount (the 10.25% discount was negotiated). According to T.Yildiz the annual profit will reach 1 bln. Dollars. This significant amount can be spent on a radical modernization of the Turkish gas infrastructure or joint Turkish-Russian beneficial investment projects.

Russia investor

Russia is an investor, financing the construction of the pipeline (the same style like Akkuyu project). Turkey is able to attract local companies and create new jobs during the construction of the gas transmission network in its territory, as well as its maintenance after implementation.

Transit security

Strategic partnership The agreement on the construction of "Turkish

Stream" is a sign of a special trust in relations between Moscow and Ankara. Russia, therefore, trusts Turkey gas transit and pipeline network security. This is an obstacle to decrease the development of potential conflicts between the two countries. The high level of trust between the countries provides the openness of the Russian market for Turkish investment. This is especially actual for the Black Sea region of Russia and particular Crimea.

Political co-operationSuccessful implementation of the "Turkish Stream" project

will deliver a new level of political relations between our countries. In particular, it will be possible to speak again about the plans of establishment a regional organization for conflict resolution in the Middle East and the Caucasus. In 2008, such a proposal was made in the agenda of the R.T. Erdogan - "Platform of Stability and Cooperation in the Caucasus". Currently, the Russian authorities are also concerned with the creation of an international regional organization, which may be competent to be a joint resolution of the security problems in the Middle East, as Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has repeatedly said during his recent visits to the Middle East.

Opponents• The project "Turkish Stream" has a number

of opponents. Primarily these include the US and EU. Using its influence on Turkey, they are trying to convince Ankara to abandon the project because of their conflict with Russia. Russia hopes that Turkey is able to choose their own allies and favorable foreign economic projects as a country with an independent foreign policy

Suffer• Turkey's refusal from the project would

negatively affect the development of relations with Russia. It is unlikely that it will be possible in the future maintain the status of "strategic partnership." Russia has a serious impact on tourism, construction, financial, investment, agricultural and other markets in Turkey, so, in case of the failure of Ankara to participate in the "Turkish Stream" these areas of cooperation will suffer.