Development planDevelopment plan

Strategy Strategy Improvement of the operational model

The analysis performanceThe model performanceGround base GPS data process

Development to enhance the model performanceIngest new observationsDFINew Grid (OP3)HRLDASEAKFEnsemble forecastGSI

Improve the analysisImprove the analysis Background error tuning is not urgent.

Maxxin’s results suggests to go back to CV3 Observations

Perform comprehensive OSE to define the impact of the observations in analysisImprovement strategy– Apply improved data use policy

QC, thinning, and any suggestions?

– How to perform a reasonable surface analysis?– Improve the use of GPSRO, AIREP, and SYNOP obs

Suya is not available next year.

Improve the analysisImprove the analysis Improvement in 3DVAR

Improve the analysis quality and shorten the adjust period in forecast.Improve the analysis quality, in particular for the geopotential height.

– Is it reasonable that the analysis is very close to the NCEP GFS analysis with observation coverage area?

Are there fundamental problems in 3DVAR?– The balance relation in the multi-variable analysis?– The translation between analysis variables and model variable?– Can outer loop help anything?

Improve the analysisImprove the analysis Data assimilation framework

Full cycle or limited update cycle?– TBD in Dec.

1st guess in the nest domain is interpolated from the domain1– Avoid the possibility that the forecast drift too much between nests.

Using the previous global forecast as boundary condition.– Get more CPU time.

Assimilate the GFS analysis– Suggest to assimilate in the post run to improve the 1st guess– Which model? Domain coverage? Density? Which variables?

Some of the changes will result in the complexity in operation, as well in user maintained data assimilation experiment.

Improve the model performanceImprove the model performance Update the model physics to improve the model Q

PF at 45-km and 20-km resolutionCuPPBL

Evaluation of the model dynamicsDiffusionDamping

Continuously monitor the forecast near the lateral boundary

Anomaly Correlation betweenM00 and NCEP analysis1 Jul-31 Aug

Anomaly Correlation betweenM00 and NCEP 24-hr fcst1 Jul-31 Aug

24-hr fcst is better than analysis?

Why occurred near lateral boundary

Ground base GPS data processGround base GPS data process

Works should be done in 2009:Operation of the PW/ZTD products– Real-time analysis configuration from two hours to

one hour. Investigate variable session lengths (1-6 hours) to create

NRT results of equal quality to daily results

– Keep daily process procedure Keep the minor operational maintain and up

date in 2010

Ingest new observationsIngest new observations

ZTDSchedule to be operational in 2010

RadianceWe have to promote our domain knowledge for radiance data and its data pre-processing, e.g. bias correction

The analysis performance and its impact on forecast should be carefully re-examed.

Analysis incrementAnalysis increment (2008060200)

con

ztd TUNOE

pwv

1

2

3

DFIDFI

To assess the possibility to operate in 2010:Any side effect?– From case and scores.

– Impact on typhoon initialization.

Optimal configuration?

Run DFI in nest domain.– It is a critical issue.

New Grid (OP3)New Grid (OP3)

Operational planContinuously keep a user-maintained parallel version following all the operational update.

Parallel from June 2010 (has to be confirmed with control team), and operational in Oct 2010

For operational OP3, in 2010 and at least early 2011, it is just a member of CWB WRF but provide the products to CAA.

Road map of the OP3 planRoad map of the OP3 plan20112010 Jun

Evaluate the cold start performance

Mar Sep

User maintained since May 2009 Parallel Operation

Update to OP2.1 and in cyclic mode

Operational plan

Evaluate the cycle performance

Development plan

Major activitiesMajor activities Development plan

Strategy: No tuning on the resolution dependent issues, just increase the model resolutionEvaluation of the cold start performance

– Comparison with 45/15 resolution

Update the model version from OP2.1– Update the 3DVAR component

CV3 will be good to avoid the uncertainty in using the background error covariance interpolated from 45-km resolution.

– Apply the limited update cycle?– BC from the previous GFS forecast

Evaluate the OP3 performance in OP2.1 framework (cyclic mode).

Uncertainties Uncertainties Any possibility that 20-km OP3 is not as good as 45-km

OP2.X?What can we do? We just have limited experience about the model performance at 20-km resolutionWe DON’T have any idea about the data assimilation performance in OP3.We have to make a consistent plan for the OP3 development including

– Model development physics improvement It is undergoing

– Data assimilation resolution dependent issues in 3DVAR tuning Any suggestions?

Need to improve the I/O performance?Reduce the hourly output variables

HRLDASHRLDAS Operation of coupled HRLDAS

Verification and evaluation the performance of the offline/coupled HRLDAS on forecast against atmospheric and soil observationsOperate on OP2, late 2010.

Operation for MODIAS landuse and climo of the LAI and fPAR

Impact study and evaluation Update Taiwan soil type database Process the MODIS albedo climo

GSIGSI

Implement the GSI in CWB environment Evaluate the performance of GSI/WRF

system to be a counterpart of 3DVAR/WRF system.

EAKF and ensemble forecastEAKF and ensemble forecast

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Operation

Study and implementationParallel

Phase 1 of EFS （ EFS/FIFOW ）

Phase 2 of EFS (EFS/P5)

EFS 第一發展階段 (EFS/FIFOW) ： 在現有資源與技術下，發展與提供 FIFOW 所需的預報資訊。EFS 第二發展階段 (EFS/P5) ：發展新的系集方法、提供更多的成員與模式升級。

Operation

EFS/FIFOW solution

• Model ： WRF• Resolution ： 45/15 km• Domain ：

– The same as OP2

• Ensemble members– EAKF– Multi-IC, Multi-physics, multi-model

• Operation pattern– 40 member per day– Output frequency: 3-hr

Challenge of EFS/FIFOW

• The operation schedule has been defined, no way to change.

• How to evaluate the performance of the ensemble forecast?– Develop the verification technique.– Develop the operational affordable ensemble spread technique

• Cold start EAKF 、 multi-IC （ different DA strategy ）、 multi-physics

– Which one is the better?– 最後，我們必須能夠用某種方法或成果告訴預報中心，我們提供

的系集預報是「好」到什麼程度，或者不好到什麼程度。• Optimal use of the computer resources• Produced the useful ensemble products.

– Downscale to station– Grid product

EAKF

• Role of EAKF– EAKF data assimilation

• Cycle

– EAKF ensemble forecast• Cold start EAKF• Cycle EAKF

EAKF

M1M2M3

Mn

::

fgperturb

F1F2F3

Fn

::

fcst

Cold start EAKF on EFS

F1F2F3

Fn

::

fcst

M1M2M3

Mn

::

fgperturb

A1A2A3

An

::

Posterior analysisfcst

posterior fcst

Cycle EAKF on DA for deterministic and ensemble forecast

EFS1

EFS2

obs Ensemble mean

Role of WAKF in CWB

• Apply the cold start EAKF for the requirement of FIFOW– EFS1EFS/FIFOW

• Ensemble forecast from EAKF-DA （ cycle ）– EFS2EFS/P5– Better than cold start-EAKF ？

• Posterior forecast from EAKF-DA （ cycle ） could be one of the deterministic forecast– Better than 3DVAR/WRF system ？

• Ensemble mean provided from EAKF-DA （ cycle ） ensemble forecast– Better than posterior forecast ？

Challenge of EAKF• To answer:

– For ensemble forecast: Cold start EAKF (EFS1) v.s. cycle EAKF(EFS2)– For deterministic forecast: EAKF-posterior fcst v.s. EAKF EFS mean v.s. 3DVAR f

cst• EAKF results spread enough on Ensemble forecast (cold start or cycle)

– We need to develop ensemble verification technique• EAKF on Data assimilation (cycle)

– Analysis performance• Does perturbation spread enough after long time assimilation? How to evaluate?• Is EAKF posterior analysis good enough? How to evaluate?• How does the individual member analysis perform? How to evaluate?• What is the optimal member number? Anyway to reduce the member? (e.g. time lag)

– Impact on posterior forecast• Improve forecast or not?

– Need to improve computing efficiency? – Affordable in current HPC resource?

• Promote the knowledge of the EAKF– So that we can ask the right questions and properly evaluate their solutions

Strategy of EAKF development plan in 2010-2011

• Ensemble forecast– Setup and evaluate the cold start EAKF system

(EFS1)– Develop the verification technique

• Evaluate the spread in the initial and forecast

• DA– Evaluation the posterior forecast system on forecast

• Compare with 3DVAR system

– User-maintained posterior forecast system in OP2.X framework in 2010