Staircase to Utopia: Advances in Technology Roadmapping2019 MIT Research and Development Conference13 November 2019

Prof. Olivier de WeckSenior Vice President for Technology Planning and RoadmappingAirbus (2017-2018)deweck@mit.edu

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DSN Capability over time

Data Rate [bps]: 10-6 to 109 for S=750 Mkm

Timeline: 1960-2020

Flight Missions shown at the bottom

S/C = spacecraftG = groundG & S/C = ground + spacecraft change

____ Achieved- - - - - Projected

2Source: JPL

Outline

What is a Technology Roadmap?

Example of Technology Roadmap: 2SEA Solar Electric Aircraft

MIT Advanced Technology Roadmap Architecture (ATRA)

16.887/EM.427 New MIT Class

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What is a technology roadmap?

“Simple” Technology Roadmap: linking technologies (blue at the bottom) against the products that will implement them (red at the top) along a timeline (x-axis). Source: Bernal et al. 4

What is the purpose of roadmapping?

In a nutshell, the purpose of technology roadmaps in an organization is to:

● Show the relationships across technologies, capabilities, products/services, and needs

● Align investments in technology and in the new development of new capabilities to deliver on future market needs

● Map technologies to products/missions/services and define a timeline for maturation and technology adoption

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Different flavors of technology roadmaps

Most basic version of roadmap is to map technologies to products and services. Other flavors are:

● Product planning● Capability development● Strategic planning● Long range planning● Knowledge planning● Project planning● Integration planning

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What is your experience with technology roadmapping?

What is your level of experience with technology roadmapping?I have not seen a technology roadmap yet

I have seen technology roadmaps but not been involved in creating them

I have helped create one or more technology roadmaps

I have led the development of a technology roadmap

I have led the development of an R&D portfolio including roadmapping

I am not sure

http://tiny.cc/TechRM

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Sample Roadmap: 2SEA (solar electric aircraft)

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2SEA - Solar Electric Aircraft - roadmap outline

1. Roadmap Overview

2. DSM Allocation (interdependencies with others roadmaps)

3. Roadmap Model using OPM (ISO 19450)

4. Figures of Merit (FOM): Definition, name, unit, trends dFOM/dt5. Alignment with Company Strategic Drivers: FOM Targets

6. Positioning of Company vs. Competition: FOM charts

7. Technical Model: Morphological Matrix and Tradespace

8. Financial Model : Technology Value (!NPV)

9. List of R&T/R&D Projects and Prototypes

10. Keys Publications, Presentations and Patents

11. Technology Strategy Statement (incl. “arrow” chart)

12. Roadmap Maturity Assessment (optional)10

1 Roadmap Overview

Working principle and architecture of a solar-electric aircraft 11

2 Design Structure Matrix (DSM) Allocation

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3 Roadmap Model using Object-Process-Methodology (OPM)

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4 - Figures of Merit (FOM)

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6 Positioning of Company vs. Competition: FOM charts

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6 Positioning of Company vs. Competition: FOM charts

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9 List of R&T (R&D Projects) and Prototypes

Credit: S. Salgiero (MIT | Aero Astro) 17

R&T Project Selection for 2SEA

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Structural Improvement Project

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Solar Cell Improvement Project

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Li-S battery improvement project

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2SEA Project Portfolio

1. A Li-S battery improvement project with the FOM target of raising the number of charge-

discharge cycles from 100 to 500 by 2025. This project will be allocated to the linked 4STO Energy Storage Roadmap and executed with a partner who specializes in lithium chemistry-

based battery development and certification (with shared IP).

1. A flight demonstrator project will be launched as part of the 2SEA roadmap to

demonstrate a 10 kg payload and 365 day (one full year) capability by 2027 as a prototype,

with an intended EIS of a commercial 500day-10kg-capable product and associated

profitable service by 2030.

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MIT Advanced Technology Roadmap Architecture (MIT-ATRA)

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Step 1: Where are we today?

24Dr. Martin Latrille, Airbus

Step 2: Where could we go?

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Step 3: Where should we go?

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Step 4: Where we are going !

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How is technology roadmapping used today?

Frequency of application areas for roadmapping (N=81 German companies; multiple responses possible). Source: Schimpf and Abele (2019)

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New MIT Class: 16.887/EM.427 Technology Roadmapping and Development

● First Offering this semester● 80 Students enrolled (50 for credit)● 17 Technology Roadmaps under Development (see

below)● Supported by MIT | Aero Astro and SDM

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Matter Energy Information Money Organisms

Transform7, Additive Mfg, 17, Hybrid Propulsion

3, Wind Power,17, Hybrid Propulsion

12, Data Analytics and ML13, Deep Learning and Computer Detection

9, Plant Genetic Improvement

Transport11, Autonomous Driving/Transport 1, Wireless, 16 Optics

11, Autonomous Driving/Transport15, High-Speed Rail

Store

2, Cryo Fuels,4, Inventory Mgmt for Oil and Gas 10, Batteries 4, Inventory Mgt

Exchange 5, Wearables14, E-Commerce and Auctions

Regulate6, Ballistic Vest; 8 Autonomous O&G

Questions?

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