dewi luwes for nama indonesia july 2012

Developing Local Action Plans

for land-based NAMA in

Indonesia with LUWES

Sonya Dewi

REL and multiple schemes of

emission reduction

Unilateral emission reduction – land-based NAMA Internationally supported emission reduction – REDD+

C-trade emission transfer

Net emissions from Indonesia

26%

Reference Emission

Level

15%

3.5

3

2.5

2

1.5

1

0.5

0

1990 2000 2010 2020

Gt/

y

Presidential Decree 61/2011 • Action plan to direct and indirect activities to reduce

GHG emission appropriate to national development

target -> regional development target

• Guideline for Ministry/Institution in planning,

implementing, monitoring and evaluation

• Guideline for local government in setting up GHG

regional action plan (RAD-GRK)

• Guideline for community and private sectors in planning

and implementing emission reduction.

National Action Plan in reducing

GHG (RAN-GRK) (26% target)

NAMA to LAMA

• Strategy, program at the national level, implementation at subnational level

• Local contexts: needs, constraints, challenges, opportunities

• Fair and efficient: bottom up approach

• Integration between development and mitigation-adaptation

• BAU scenario to set REL

• Payment distribution, funding mechanism

• Planning capacity + authority -> accountability

• Nested system, including MRV

Developing Provincial/District land-based

Action Plan (RAD-GRK)

1. Identification and quantification of sources and drivers

of land-based emission

2. Identification of potential of emission reduction and low

hanging fruit

3. Development of baseline scenarios of land use-land

use changes, and Reference Emission Level

4. List of GHG Emission Reduction Action Plan (core and

supporting activities)

5. Priority of proposed action plan

6. Identification of institutional setting, sources of funding,

measuring and monitoring activities for province action

plan, which is an aggregate of district action plans

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov

RAD-GRK development Team Building Kick off meeting Data Collection BAU Baseline Calculation Submission of the Action Plan Determining priority Determining emission reduction target Developing implementation strategies Governor draft of Action Plan Meeting / Workshop : milestone

★

★

★

★

★

★

★

★

★

● ● ●

★

Government Agenda in Setting Up

Province Action Plan (RAD-GRK) 2012

8

Prioritization of GHG emission reduction activities from National Action Plan

Province may propose subset of activities as those outlined in the National Action Plan (what), with details of “where and how much” and “how”

Identification of development program/activities in regional strategies document (Renstra), regional development plan (RPJMD), regional budgeting (APBD), and vision of governor.

Propose new appropriate activities from public institution, private, and any other communities, also with the details of “where, how much and how”

Guidelines in Setting up

Province/District Action Plan

How LUWES tool supports

province/district action planning?

• Concrete action planning

• Away from project-to-project approach

• Integrated landscape approach

• What-if scenarios -> integrated decision making

• Trade-off analysis: emission reduction vs …

• Simple; capacity building is feasible

• Negotiation platform

• Bridging top-down and bottom-up -> refinement, feed back loop

• Integrated multiple schemes

• Green investment tools

LUWES in 6 steps

• Step 1: Integration of current socio-economic conditions,

development and spatial planning, tenure regime,

biophysical and functional zones to identify planning

units (multistakeholder discussions, spatial analysis)

• Step 2: Estimation of Historical Land Use and Land Use

Changes and their consequences to historic emission,

(spatial analyses, C-stock appraisal, emission factor

estimation)

LUWES in 6 steps

• Step 3: Baseline Scenario development of LULUC and

estimation of Reference Levels of Emissions

(stakeholder discussions, modelling Land use/cover

changes)

• Step 4: Scenarios of emission reduction and

projected emissions (ex-ante appraisal based on

projected land use/cover)

• Step 5: Trade-off analysis, scenario selection (ex-ante

appraisal of opportunity cost vs reduced emissions,

negotiation process of multiple stakeholders)

• Step 6: Formulation of action plans including necessary

instruments to implement the plans (multiple stakeholder

process led by the local governments)

CASE STUDY: MERANGIN,

JAMBI

Merangin watershed

•Multistakeholder discussions,

•Data compilation,

•Spatial analysis

Step 1 Integration of current socio-

economic conditions, development

and spatial planning, functional

zones to identify planning units

Analysis,

discussions

with

stakeholders

Planning Units

• Spatial analyses

• C-stock appraisal and emission factor

estimation

• Historic emission estimation using ABACUS

Step 2 Estimation of Historical Land Use

Changes and their consequences to

Multiple Environmental Services (carbon

storage, watershed function,

biodiversity)

Land use/cover maps:1990-2010

∆C Landscape

Emission

Factor

Activity

Data

Annual changes

in C-stocks in

the landscape

(ton C yr-1)

ACTIVITY DATA

Area of changes

between each

pairwise of

landcover types

(ha y-1)

Changes in

time-averaged

C-stock

between each

pairwise of

landcover types

(ton C ha-1y-1)

Stock-difference to estimate

emissions

ID Land cover C-stock (ton/ha)

1 Undisturbed Forest 261.52

2 Logged over forest-high density 192.81

3 Logged over forest-low density 129.97

4 Timber Plantation 58

5 Agroforest 62.87

6 Estate 46.28

7 Shrub 43

8 Cropland 5.245

9 Grass 3.35

10 Bareland 3.35

11 Settlement 4.14

Carbon Density Maps of Batang

Merangin Watershed

• Total historic emissions

• Emission shares of each

planning unit

• Emission shares of each

land use changes and drivers

• Stakeholder discussions

• Choices of linear projection, adjusted historic,

forward looking scenarios

• Projection can be done using ABACUS through:

o driver modelling (spatially and non-spatially

explicit),

o existing land use and development plan

o or applying historic rate of changes

Step 3 Baseline Scenario development of

LULCC and estimation of Reference

Levels of ES

Planning Unit Baseline scenario: Historical Projection

Baseline scenario: Forward Looking

Protected Forest Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010

Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010

Protection Forest Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010


Production Forest, non-permit



Production Forest, HTI


Clear cut ALL and plant mono tree in the next five years

Production Forest, HPH


Logging in the next 10-15 years caused forest degradation

Baseline Scenarios

Planning Unit Baseline Scenario: Historical Projection

Baseline Scenario: Forward Looking

Production Forest, Hutan Desa/HTR


planting mono/Mixed tree(50:50) in low stock, low economical value

APL, permit Retain the rate of changes in 2005 to 2010

Clear cut and plant mono tree in the next ten years

APL, non-permit, downstream



APL, non-permit, upstream, crop suit


Clear cut and plant crop (increase the rates significantly from previous TPM)

APL, non-permit, upstream, tree suit



Baseline Scenarios (cont’d)

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030

Cu

mm

ula

tive n

et-

em

issio

n (

ton

CO

2-

eq

/ha)

Historical Projection Forward looking

To be negotiated,

Under REL

guideline

Projected emissions based on BAU Scenarios

• Stakeholders discussions on emission

reduction scenarios for each planning unit

• ex-ante ES appraisal based on projected land

use/cover using ABACUS

• cost-benefit analysis using ABACUS

• other valuation – multiplier effects

Step 4 Emission reduction scenario

development, estimation of ex-ante

emissions and trade-offs

Planning Unit Scenario1: REDD+Moratorium Scenario2: REALU

Protected Forest

Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest

Reduce deforestation to half from 2005_2010 in LOF, to zero in UF, rehabilitate 10% of non forest, log low to high, high to UF 10%

Protection Forest



Production Forest, non-permit



Production Forest, HTI

Stop clear cut, only planting to mono tree Stop clear cut, only planting

Production Forest, HPH

Logging in the next 10-15 years (only LOF HD, LOF HD to LOF LD, LOF LD to Shrub)

Logging in the next 10-15 years (only LOF HD, LOF HD to LOF LD)

Emission Reduction Scenarios

Planning Unit Scenario3: REDD+Moratorium Scenario4: REALU

Production Forest, Hutan Desa/HTR

Logging in the next 10-15 years (only LOF HD to LOF LD), planting mono tree in low stock

Logging in the next 10-15 years (only LOF HD to LOF LD), planting mono tree in low stock

APL, permit Clear cut and plant mono tree in the next five years

Clear cut (except UF) and plant mono tree in the next five years

APL, non-permit, downstream


Halt conversion from UF, uneconomical land use to economical with higher C_stock

APL, non-permit, upstream, crop suit

Clear cut and plant crop land (increase the rates significantly from rates of the previous period)

Halt conversion from UF, uneconomical land use to economical crop with higher C_stock

APL, non-permit, upstream, tree suit


Halt conversion from UF, uneconomical land use to tree-based economical with higher C_stock

APL, non-permit, upstream, not suit


Halt conversion from UF, uneconomical land use to reforestation

Emission Reduction Scenarios

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030

Cu

mm

ula

tive n

et-

em

issio

n (

ton

CO

2-

eq

/ha)

Historical Projection Forward looking REDD REALU

Assumed as Agreed

REL

Ex-ante emission based on Scenarios

Em

issio

n R

ed

uctio

n?

• negotiation process of multiple stakeholders

Step 5 Trade-off analysis, strategy

development

ID Land cover NPV ($/ha)

1 Undisturbed Forest 0.00

2 Logged over forest-high density 0.00

3 Logged over forest-low density 0.00

4 Timber Plantation 4392.33

5 Agroforest 1040.00

6 Estate 4948.67

7 Shrub 0.00

8 Cropland 25418.00

9 Grass 0.00

10 Bareland 0.00

11 Settlement 5787.00

Abatement cost curve 2005-2010

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Historical Projection

REDD+ REALU

Ave

rag

e n

um

be

r o

f p

eo

ple

/ye

ar

Labor

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


REDD+ REALU

Cu

mu

lati

ve

($

/ha

)

Opportunity Cost

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


REDD+ REALU

Cu

mu

lati

ve

(tC

O2

-eq

) Emission Reduction

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


REDD+ REALU

Cu

mu

lati

ve

($

/tC

O2

-eq

)

OppCost/Emission Reduction

• multiple stakeholder process led by the local

governments

Step 6 Formulation of action plans including

necessary instruments to implement the

plans

Planning Unit Emission reduction

activities

Potential

emission

reduction

Issues Implementation strategy

Forest

Concession

(HTI)

Avoiding primary

forest conversion to

Acacia

1.63 Company Concession Suggest concession holder to

preserve primary forest and

disseminate Spatial Plan of

Plantation Concession

(Kepmenhut No. 70/KPTS-

II/95), with reference to

HCVF.

Raw material for company Restrict any uses of raw

material from primary forest

Community to open forest

area

Strengthen monitoring and

control activity in primary

forest

Preserve

smallholders

plantation from

conversion to

acacia

1.01 Limited community’s

administation document of

land tenure

Implementing MOU betwen

govenment, company, and

community on forest border

Plant acacia in

shrub and grass

area immediately

1.16 Limited company capacity to

plant acacia as soon.

Diseminate Act No. 7/ 1990

section 12

Planning Unit Emission reduction

activities

Potential

emission

reduction

Issues Implementing strategy

Oil Palm

Concession

Avoid conversion of

primary forest and high

density logged over forest

to oil palm

3.36 Concession company

(under authority of

company)

Oil palm concession holder to halt

conversion of primary and logged over

forest high density to oil palm as

company’s participation in

government’s emission reduction

program, HCVF, market-based

instrument (premium price), RSPO,

ISPO

Need of land to achieve

company’s production

target

Land swap; partnerships with local

people, intensification

Protected Forest

Management

Unit (KPHLG)

Preserve remaining forest 4.68 Community need of land in

surrounding area

Awareness raising of community on

forest management

Limited number of forest

guards

Increase the number of forest guards

under Ministry of Forestry

Plant Dyiera sp in the area 4.84 Limited understanding

(technical and marketing)

of Dyiera sp

Technical assistance to community on

Dyiera sp

Limited budget to support

Dyiera sp’s planting

material.

Involve the community on dyera sp

planting

Explore and Extent market

HP Preserve primary forest 5.08 People need to land Campaign to community on forest

management

Limited of forestry guard Propose addition of officer

Planning Unit

Emission

reduction

activities

Potential

emission

reduction

Issues Implementing strategy

Production Forest Preserve

primary forest

5.08 The need for agricultural land Awareness raising on forest management

to the community

Limited number of forest guards Increase the number of staff

Granting permit in the zone Propose to Ministry of forestry to halt

other permit in the zone

Facilitate establishment of forest

management unit

Law enforcement

Plant rubber

in non-

forested area

People preference to cultivate the land

with commodity which is lower is C

retention

Make available rubber planting material

Disseminate Production Forest

management plan to the community

Allocate land for village’s forest and other

community based forest.

Limited

Production Forest

Preserve

primary forest

5.49 Encroachment Disseminate Limited Production Forest

management plan to the community

Limited number of forest guards Increase number of staff

Mining permit within the panning unit Propose to Ministry of Forestry to halt

other permit

Facilitate establishment of forest

production management unit

law enforcement

Plant rubber

in non-

5.48 People preference to cultivate the land

with commodity which is lower is C

Promote rubber planting

Software and Tools

• LUWES (Dewi et al., 2012)

• http://ptf.com/download/redd_abacus_sp/6

170299/ (Harja et al.)

• http://www.worldagroforestry.org/af2/genri

ver_download (van Noordwijk et al.)

• IDRISI Taiga

• ArcGIS 10

• Fragstat 3

http://ptf.com/download/redd_abacus_sp/6170299/



http://www.worldagroforestry.org/af2/genriver_download

http://www.worldagroforestry.org/af2/genriver_download

Thank you

dewi luwes for nama indonesia july 2012

Science