dhl global forwarding, freight ocean freight market update · 2020-02-17 · 6 market outlook...

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OCEAN FREIGHT MARKET UPDATE

DHL Global Forwarding, Freight

November 2019

Publication Date 1st November 2019

Dominique von Orelli – Global Head, Ocean Freight

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Contents

TOPIC OF THE MONTH DHL introduces “IMO 2020 Compliance Cost Surcharge“

HIGH LEVEL DEVELOPMENT

MARKET OUTLOOK Freight Rates and Volume Development

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK & DEMAND DEVELOPMENT

CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT

CARRIERS

? DID YOU KNOW? Top 12 Container Carriers’ Order Books

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DHL Global Forwarding | OFR Market Update | November 2019

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IMO 2020 regulation impacts the entire shipping industry

Background : IMO 2020 introduces a new marine fuel regulation, which limits the sulphur emissions caused by marine fuels. The new sulphur level regulation is intended to reduce the amount of air pollution generated by the shipping industry and improve air quality. To date, ships have been able to use high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with a sulphur content of up to 3.5%. IMO 2020 requires using fuel with a sulphur content of 0.5 % or lower and will come into effect as of 1st January 2020.

Ocean Carriers have three options to be compliant with the new regulation: Converting to more expensive low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO 0.5%), using Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems (EGCSs) also called scrubbers or deploying ships powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG). After the evaluation of the three options, ocean carriers are full steam preparing for the implementation of the new sulphur cap. It is clear that this change affects the entire shipping industry and the cost of compliance with the new regulation is significant and will severely impact the overall transportation costs. The ocean carriers, as well as the forwarders, will not be able to absorb these additional costs. Many ocean carriers have already announced that they will replace their existing fuel charges and introduce a new fuel recovery mechanism. In order to simplify the complex tariff structure, DHL Global Forwarding will implement a so-called “IMO 2020 Compliance Cost Surcharge” as of December 1st 2019 (sailing date). The implementation and methodology of the “IMO 2020 Compliance Cost Surcharge” has been announced to our customers in October 2019. In case of clarification needed please contact your local Ocean Freight Management or Sales Representation.

Source: DHL

Topic of the Month

DHL introduces “IMO 2020 Compliance Cost Surcharge”


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High Level Market Development – Supply and Demand

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK GDP GROWTH BY REGION1)

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1) real GDP, Global Insight, Copyright © IHS, Q3 2019 . All rights reserved. 2) Demand growth = Port-to-Port Container Traffic growth. Supply growth = Fleet Growth. Source: Drewry Maritime Research. 3) Drewry, in USD/40ft container, including BAF & THC both ends, 42 individual routes, excluding intra-Asia routes. 4) Shanghai Shipping Exchange, in USD/20ft container & USD/40ft ctnr for US routes, 15 routes from Shanghai. 5) Source: DHL. 6) DHL Global Trade Barometer Jun19, index value represents weighted average of current growth and upcoming two months of trade, a value at 50 is considered neutral, expanding above 50, and shrinking below 50.

WORLD CONTAINER INDEX (WCI)3) SHANGHAI CONTAINERIZED FREIGHT INDEX (SCFI)4)

DHL TRADE BAROMETER6)

0

2,500

500

3,000

1,500

1,000

2,000

Q4 Q1 ’18

Q2 Q3 Q1 ’19

Q2 Q3 Q4 400

500

700

1,000

600

800

1,100

900

1,200

Q1 ’18

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 ’19

Q2 Q3 Q4

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Q4 Q1 ’17

Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q1 ’18

Q2 Q1 ’19

Q2 Q3

Ocean

Global

Actual

Forecast

Actual

Forecast

SUPPLY/DEMAND GROWTH (ANNUALIZED), IN % 2)

Supply Growth %

Demand Growth

%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2018 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F

SUPPLY/DEMAND GROWTH (ANNUALIZED), IN % 2)


Sep19 index

predicts Sep-

Nov19 trade

development

2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F CAGR

(2020-23)

EURO 1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5%

MEA 1.9% 2.8% 2.9% 3.1% 3.3% 3.1%

AMER 2.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.9%

ASPA 4.5% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 4.4%

DGF World 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%

BUNKER PRICES5)

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Market Outlook November 2019 – Major Trades

Overall tight space situation out of Asia. GRI announced as of Nov 1st.

KEY Strong

Increase ++

Moderate Increase

+ No

Change =

Moderate Decline

- Strong Decline

- -

EXPORT REGION1 IMPORT REGION CAPACITY RATE

EURO AMNO = =

AMLA = =

ASPA -- +

MENAT -- +

SSA = =

AMNO AMLA = =

ASPA = =

EURO = =

MENAT = =

SSA = =

EXPORT REGION IMPORT REGION CAPACITY RATE

AMLA AMNO = =

ASPA = =

EURO = =

MENAT = =

SSA = =

ASPA ASPA - =/+

AMNO - +

AMLA + ++

EURO - +

MENAT - +

OCEANIA + ++


Source: DGF

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Market Outlook November 2019 – Ocean Freight Rates Major Trades Market outlook on smaller trades available in the back-up

O C E A N F R E I G H T R A T E S O U T L O O K

ASPA – EURO The golden week blank sailing program is in full swing and space is getting tight, thus carriers are planning another round of GRI for1st November.

EURO – ASPA & MEA Space constraints coming up mid/end of November, as a result of the golden week in far east and several blank sailings on account of the ongoing scrubber upgrades. First PSS announcements received. This will also affect the empty equipment situation throughout Europe, especially the hinterland availability and will have a cascading effect on the connected trades i.e. ME / IPBS and AU&NZ.

ASPA – AMLA Space is tight due to the post golden week and Christmas rush. Carriers are reporting to have severe rollover situation, the most in WCSA. Reason is a major capacity withdrawal. Rates are on the uptrend for ECSA and WCSA.

ASPA – AMNO Carriers continue extensive blank sailings in Oct/Nov and winter program into USEC (THE alliance) to stabilize market. Potential cargo rush in Nov prior to tariff impact expected.

EURO – AMNO Space to North Atlantic (NYC, Norfolk) remains tight, situation to South Atlantic is expected to ease in the upcoming weeks.

ASPA – MENAT Tight space situation due to carriers’ capacity control plans ex Asia with blank sailing plan already in place. Expect a stabilized freight environment in November. GRI announced for 1st November.

ASPA – ASPA Blank sailings planned for IPBC services, space is expected to be tight in order to push the freight rates back to a sustainable level. Carriers are announcing GRI in the range of USD150/TEU as of 1st Nov.

AMNO – EURO Rates have been extended through end of Q4 2019. Capacity remains stable.


Source: DGF

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Economic Outlook & Demand Development Rising trade policy uncertainty is weighing heavily on capital spending

Source: IHS Markit, IHS Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing, a PMI at 50 is considered neutral, expanding above 50, and business shrinking below 50.


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EURO

Industrial output, construction, & retail sales have declined recently pointing to flat real GDP in Q3, with contractions in DE & IT. Eurozone real GDP growth is projected to slow from 1.9% in 2018 to 1.1% this year and 0.8% in 2020. Meanwhile, the UK has made little progress toward ratifying a EU withdrawal agreement. Negligible real GDP growth is expected in H2 ‘19, followed by a modest acceleration in early 2020 due to precautionary purchases ahead of the extended Brexit deadline.

AMNO In the US real GDP growth slowed to a 2.0% annual rate in Q2, down from 3.1% growth in Q1. Third quarter data are likely to show a further deceleration. Data on the US financial accounts through Q2 show considerably more household wealth than previously reported. While this will support consumer spending in quarters to come, recent monthly data on consumer spending and retail sales were disappointing.

ASPA

Sales tax in JP was raised again on 1 Oct ‘19 from 8% to 10%. The impact may be muted thanks to several factors. First, the Rugby World Cup, now taking place in JP, has boosted consumer spending & may off set some negative impacts of the tax increase. Second, many food and beverage items are exempt. Third, the government will spend some tax proceeds on childcare & pensions. Finally, with the government’s help, small retailers will offer customers rebates of up to 5%. These factors mean that, while JP’s growth is set to slow, a recession is probably not in the cards. Industrial production in CN, fixed asset investment, & housing activity slowed further, & auto sales, exports, & imports all fell again in CN. The damage from the trade war is evident in falling CN exports to the world & plunging exports to the US. IHS Markit however continues to believe more modest stimulus will be forthcoming from China’s government.

EMERGING MARKETS

IN’s economic growth slowed from 5.8% in Q1 to a 6-year low of 5.0% YoY in Q2 ’19. Rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India this year, coupled with surplus liquidity in the banking system & corporate tax cuts will facilitate investment. Similarly, the Central Bank of Brazil lowered its Selic interest rate by 50 basis points in both Aug & Sep, bringing it to 5.50%. The Central Bank of Russia has also cut interest rates 3 times this year, which will provide a small boost to Russia’s growth in 2020.

DEMAND DEVELOPMENT

Inflows of new orders expanded at the slowest pace since 2012, while business expectations about the year ahead remained close to Global PMI survey low. Trade worries continue to dominate the outlook, alongside heightened uncertainty & concerns about weaker economic growth.

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Capacity Development

C A P A C I T Y

Maersk has confirmed that the Asia-North Europe ‘AE-2/Swan’ service suspension will last from week 39 to week 47. The move will see the 2M restore its Asia-North Europe service coverage to six sailings per week, following the temporary removal of the ‘AE-2/Swan’ at the end of September. Maersk and MSC had earlier planned to restart the service in mid November but delayed the relaunch by two weeks due to weak market demand. Weak market conditions on the Far East – North Europe route have also forced the OCEAN Alliance to announce six blank sailings in November and three sailings in December while THE Alliance has announced two blanked sailings so far for November.

In anticipation of the slack winter season, THE Alliance members, Hapag-Lloyd, ONE and Yang Ming, have announced the suspension of the Far East – USEC ‘EC3’ service from November until the end of March next year. In order to provide a seamless coverage of the ports served by the ‘EC3’ during the suspension, the rotation of the ‘EC1’ service will be adjusted to accommodate additional ports, with calls at Kaohsiung, Xiamen, Hong Kong, Yantian being inserted, as well as an eastbound call at Manzanillo (Panama). This move effectively merges the ‘EC1’ and ‘EC3’ services into a combined service dubbed ‘Modified EC1’. This will result in the removal of about 6,700 TEU weekly from the Far East – USEC route or about 4% of the total capacity on this route.

THE Alliance will also downsize the capacity deployed on two Far East – USWC services, the ‘PS5’ and ‘PS7’ for the winter slack season from November to March next year. The average capacity on the ‘PS5’ will be reduced from 8,400 TEU to 6,700 TEU while the ‘PS7’ will be downsized from the 9,800 TEU to the 8,500 TEU scale. These moves will remove about 3,000 TEU weekly from the Far East – USWC route, or just 1% of the total capacity on this route.

Scrubber retrofitting activity and void sailings during the October ‘Golden Week’ holidays continued to drive the increase in inactive fleet numbers in early October, with 3.9% of the fleet recorded to be out of active service as at 14 October. The inactive fleet increased across all size sectors to reach 211 units for 898,750 TEU (of which 436,036 TEU due to scrubber retrofits beyond the normal immobilization time for routine maintenance), logging an increase of 145,000 TEU compared to the last survey on 30 September. With more void sailings already announced in November due to the low freight demand, the inactive fleet will remain bloated in the coming weeks even as the scrubber retrofit rush is expected to peak in the coming months with as many as 80-90 containerships out at one time in November and December for retrofits. The number of containerships already fitted with scrubbers has reached 142 units for 1.14 MTEU as at 15 October.


Source: Alphaliner, Dynaliners, carriers

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C A R R I E R S

Maersk has upgraded its earnings guidance for the full year, with its EBITDA forecast raised from $5.0 Bn to between $5.4 and 5.8 Bn. Preliminary 3rd Q numbers released by Maersk on 21 October show a total revenue of $10.055 Bn in the 3rd Q and EBITDA of $1.656 Bn. Although topline revenue dropped by 0.9% compared to 3rd Q 2018, due to slower volume growth and lower freight rates, EBITDA margins were boosted to 16.5%. This came as a result of lower bunker fuel costs, as well as other cost savings from capacity management on Maersk’s Ocean business and improved margins on its Terminal business.

OOCL log improved 3rd Q 2019 performance. Total liftings increased by 4.1% to 1.781 MTEU, with the Asia-Europe route recording the largest increase of 11.4% while transpacific volumes increased by 3.5%. OOCL’s total revenue reached $1.646 Bn in the 3rd Q, up 5.8% compared to the same quarter last year as average revenue per TEU improved marginally by 1.6% to $924/TEU compared to $910/TEU last year. Although the transpacific rates were up 3.4%, Asia-Europe rates were 7.4% lower. OOCL had also confirmed the completion of the sale of the Long Beach Container Terminal (LBCT) on 24 October to a investment holding fund managed by Macquarie Asset Management. OOCL will receive $1.78 Bn in cash from the sale, with at least part of the proceeds expected to be used to fund further capacity expansion.

Moody’s on 25 September downgraded CMA CGM’s corporate credit ratings from B1 to B2, both categorized as ‘highly speculative’. Moody’s said that the downgrade ‘reflects that CMA CGM’s liquidity profile has weakened materially in the last twelve months as a consequence of the acquisition of CEVA Logistics,’ together with a heavy capital expenditure program in a difficult market environment for container shipping. CMA CGM is expected to reduce its debt burden through the sale of a minority stake in CEVA and a divestment of its terminal assets that Moody’s expects to generate ‘at least $500 M’. CMA CGM’s total debt and lease liabilities stood at $20.2 Bn as at end of June, with a significant pipeline of new capital expenditure still outstanding. This includes an order book of 15 ships to be delivered from 2019 to 2021 on the company’s account.

The sanctions applied by the US to COSCO, accused of violating restrictions on Iranian oil trading, do not concern the container shipping activities of the company, ensured under the umbrella of COSCO Shipping. In an official statement on 25 September, the US Government clarified its position, saying that the sanctions apply only to COSCO Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co and COSCO Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Seaman & Ship Management Co. According to the latest statistics on the Far East – US route, COSCO and OOCL remain the largest carrier on the transpacific eastbound trade with a combined market share of 21.5% for the May-September 2019 period.

On 15 October MSC concluded an order for five more megamax containerships of 23,000 TEU with the South Korean shipbuilder Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering. The five vessels are scheduled for delivery prior to August 2021. This order will bring MSC’s total megamax fleet to 36 units, including 16 next-generation jumbo vessels of the wider and somewhat bigger 23,000+ TEU type, known as ‘megamax-24’.

Carriers 1/2


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Carriers 2/2

Source: Alphaliner, carriers


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C A R R I E R S

MSC has joined the position of CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd and stated on 17 October that it ruled out the use of Arctic waters for container shipping. As the polar ice in the Arctic continues to melt, both the North East and North West Passages are now ice-free in summer. The time window in which this region can be navigated continues to be relatively narrow, but is extending year after year. Usage of this route means a major shortcut between North East Asia and North Europe and between North East Asia and the US East Coast. A trip from Ningbo to Rotterdam via Suez represents a distance of 10,600 miles compared to only 7,800 miles via the Arctic Northern Sea Route. Shanghai – New York via Panama stands at 10,600 miles, compared to 8,600 miles via the North West Passage. Despite the advantages of using a shorter route, only a small number of the current containership fleet have the requisite Arctic ice-class that allows them to use the Arctic route on a commercially viable basis. CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd and MSC declared individually that they will not use this route as a surge in container shipping traffic could represent a significant danger to the unique ecosystem of this part of the world.

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Did you know? Top 12 Container Carriers’ Oder Books


Source: Dynaliners based on Alphaliner

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The Top 12 Container Carriers control 85% of the existing world container fleet.

Their order books stand at 10% of the existing fleet.

With a fleet capacity of 393’500 TEUs PIL crawled up one rank and is now ahead of HMM.

HMM is leading in terms of orders in relation to the currently operated fleet.

With the exception of CMA CGM the top 5 carriers have small order books compared to their operated fleet.

Operated Fleet Order book Orders % Operated Fleet No. Carrier Ships TEU Ships TEU

1 Maersk Line 706 4’196’200 19 45’500 1%

2 MSC 560 3’661’200 11 190’400 5%

3 Cosco Shipping 483 2’966’600 3 5’300 0%

4 CMA CGM 507 2’680’800 33 487’500 18%

5 Hapag-Lloyd 233 1’683’700 - - 0%

6 ONE 218 1’572’700 - - 0%

7 Evergreen 203 1’294’200 67 568’300 44%

8 Yang Ming 97 641’400 24 198’100 31%

9 PIL 120 393’500 - - 0%

10 HMM 61 380’500 20 396’000 104%

11 Zim 63 283’300 - - 0%

12 Wan Hai 92 263’300 20 48’700 18%

Total Top 12 3’343 20’017’400 197 1’939’800 10%

other carriers 2’795 3’427’200 179 632’900 18%

Total carrier fleet 6’138 23’444’600 376 2’572’700 11%

Share Top 12 54% 85% 52% 75%

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B A C K - U P

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Source: DGF

Market Outlook November 2019 – Ocean Freight Rates Additional Trades (1/2)


EURO – AMLA No capacity issues. Rates remain stable until end 2019.

EURO – MENAT ME region shows same trend as ASPA; Additional blank sailings, combined with strong commodity demand put pressure on space and container availability. Space situation continues to be tight.

EURO – SSA Rates remain stable for now, but might increase as of Q1, 2020.

AMNO – MENAT Rates in the market are stable and no changes are expected before December 2019. Space is tight out of USEC & USGC Ports on services

to M. East & India Subcontinent, but an improvement is expected for November. No space issues out of USWC at this time

AMNO – SSA Rates to South Africa and West Africa unchanged except congestion surcharges in Nigeria. No changes in capacity. Space is available.

AMNO – AMLA Market remains soft on US exports.

AMLA Exports

Equipment imbalance affecting drop off conditions in CO & CL.

13% VAT to be implemented on all haulage within Costa Rica.

Space constraints w/weekly rolls at Callao Port.

Carriers introducing service to Posorja EC (deep water port).

Congestion continues at all t/shipment ports in Central America.

AMNO – ASPA carriers are looking for additional cargo for TPWB and are very aggressive in pricing and terms.


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Market Outlook November 2019 – Ocean Freight Rates Additional Trades (2/2)


EURO MED - AMNO Rates will remain stable

EURO MED – AMLA Unchanged / stable

EURO MED – ASPA Slight rate increase expected depending on the service.

EURO MED – MENAT Slight rate increase expected depending on the service.

EURO MED – SSA Unchanged / stable

ASPA-SPAC Further blank sailing for week 40+41, will put pressure on space. Carriers have announced GRIs as of Oct 1st.


Source: DGF

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Market Outlook – Volume Outlook in Main Trade Lanes, 2019 Estimate & 2020/23 Growth Forecast in %

N O R T H

A M E R I C A I n c l .

M E X I C O

4.3 mTEU +2.2%

2.3 mTEU +1.5%

1.7 mTEU +3.4%

1.9 mTEU +2.5%

N O R T H

A M E R I C A I n c l .

M E X I C O

L A T I N

A M E R I C A

E U R O P E

I n c l . M E D

14.6 mTEU +3.8%

7.3 mTEU +2.2%

7.6 mTEU +3.0%

18.5 mTEU +3.4%

1.7 mTEU +4.0%

4.4 mTEU +4.8%

2019e, in mTEU 2020e-2023e CAGR, in %

F A R E A S T

I N T R A A S I A

excl. Oceania

40.7 mTEU +3.8%

2.0 mTEU

+3.9%

1.5 mTEU

+3.0%

L A T I N

A M E R I C A

G L O B A L C O N T A I N E R T R A D E 2 0 1 9 e 1 5 1 . 2 m T E U + 3 . 9 % C A G R 2 0 2 0 e - 2 0 2 3 e

Mid-term growth is mainly driven by Asian tradelanes.

Source: Seabury Jun19 update


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Carrier Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances

M E R G E R S A N D A Q U I S I T I O N S

China

Shipping Cosco OOCL Evergreen APL

CMA

CGM Hapag

Lloyd

United

Arab

Shipping

Hyundai

Merchant

Marine

Hamburg

Süd Maersk

Line MSC K Line MOL NYK

Yang

Ming

CHINA COSCO SHIPPING

OOCL EVER

GREEN CMA CGM

APL HAPAG-LLOYD

HYUNDAI

MERCHANT

MARINE

MAERSK LINE

Hamburg Süd MSC

OCEAN NETWORK

EXPRESS (ONE) YANG

MING

A L L I A N C E S

F O R M E R A L L I A N C E S P R E S E N T A L L I A N C E S

2M MAERSK LINE

MSC OCEAN 3

CMA CGM

CHINA SHIPPING

UNITED ARAB

SHIPPING COMPANY

2M MAERSK LINE

MSC

OCEAN

ALLIANCE

OOCL

CMA CGM

CHINA COSCO SHIPPING

EVERGREEN

G6

HAPAG-LLOYD

MOL

NYK

APL

HYUNDAI

MERCHANT

MARINE

OOCL

CKYHE

COSCO

EVERGREEN

HANJIN

SHPPING

K-LINE

YANG MING THE ALLIANCE

HAPAG-LLOYD

ONE

YANG MING

HMM (from 1 April

2020) *Source: Carriers

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Acronyms and Explanations

AMLA - Latin America OWS - Overweight Surcharge

AMNO - North America PH - Philippines

AR - Argentina PNW - Pacific North West

ASPA - AsiaPacific Ppt. - Percentage points

BR - Brazil PSW - Pacific South West

CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate QoQ - Quarter on quarter

CENAC - Central Amercia and Caribbean SAEC - South America East Coast

CNC - CNC Line (Cheng Lie Navigation Co. Ltd.) SAWC - South America West Coast

DG - Dangerous Goods SOLAS - Safety of Life at Sea

DWT - Dead Weight Tonnage SPRC - South People’s Republic of China – South China

EB - Eastbound SSA - Sub-Saharan Africa

ECSA - East Coast South America (synonym for SAEC) SSL - Steam Ship Line

EGLV - Evergreen Marine Corp T - Thousands

EURO - Europe TEU - Twenty foot equivalent unit (20‘ container)

GRI - General Rate Increase TSA - Trans Pacific Stabilization Agreement

HMM - Hyundai USGC - US Gulf Coast

HL - Hapag-Lloyd US FMC - US Federal Maritime Commission

HSUD - Hamburg Süd USEC - US East Coast

HWS - Heavy Weight Surcharge USWC - US West Coast

IA - Intra Asia VGM - Verified Gross Mass

IPBC - India Pakistan Bangladesh Ceylon (= Sri Lanka) VLCS - Very Large Container Ship

IPI - Inland Point Intermodal VSA - Vessel Sharing Agreement

ISC - Indian Sub Continent (synonym for IPBC) WB - Westbound

MENAT - Middle East and North Africa WCSA - West Coast South America (synonym for SAWC)

ML - Maersk Line WHL - Wan Hai

mn - Millions WRS - War Risk Surcharge

MoM - Month-on-Month YML - Yang Ming Line

NOO - Non-operating (vessel) owners YoY - Year-on-Year

OCRS - Operational Cost Recovery surcharge YTD - Year-to-Date

OOCL - Orient Overseas Container Line


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dhl global forwarding, freight ocean freight market update · 2020-02-17 · 6 market outlook...

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