Diagnostics and Evolution of Bushfire Drivers in the Climate System in Victoria, Australia

Daniel Pazmiño (PhD student)

Alexandre Pezza (Supervisor)

David Karoly (Co-supervisor)

Taken from: http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/02/bushfires_in_victoria_australi.html

Outline• Introduction/background • Research gaps and scientific

questions

• Research strategy

• Results (so far….)

• Work ahead

• Summary

Introduction/Background

Bushfireoccurrence

Weather conditions

Fuel loads

Ignition sources

WindRainfall

Air temperature

Relative humidity

Vegetation

Lightning

Anthropogenic

Bushfire weather

Williams et al. (2012)

Why to investigate bushfires in Victoria?

FuturePast

• Catastrophic bushfires(e.g. “Black Friday” 1939, “Ash Wednesday” 1983, “Black Saturday” 2009)

• Fire danger risk will increase

(Clarke et al., 2011; Hasson et al., 2009; Lucas

et al., 2007)

• High vulnerability50% of economic impact in 150

years.(Luke and McArthur, 1978)

Bushfire Synoptic Pattern in Victoria

Historic Chart Analysis at 11am EDT on "Ash Wednesday", Wed 16th February 1983 showing areas with extreme fire weather. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (Australian)

Noble et al. (1980)

Fire danger Rating RangeLow 0-5

Moderate 5-12High 12-24

Very high 24-50Extreme 50+

Research Gaps and

Scientific Questions

Identified gaps in bushfire research

1. Large scale circulation patterns & bushfire weather.

2. Seasonal bushfire index development.

3. Heat-waves vs. Bushfires patterns.

Forecasting bushfire potential with a seasonal perspective?

Modes of climate variability (ENSO, SAM, IOD)?

Seasonal bushfire potential variability in the 20th century?

Heat-waves and bushfire daily and seasonal patterns?

Future behavior of significant bushfire seasons?

Research Strategy

Source: PerilAUS database developed by RiskFrontiers (Natural Hazard Research Center). SOI values taken from the Bureau of

Meteorology web page

Bushfire events/reports database (PerilAUS)

Gridded datasets

Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CRV2)

• Yields atmospheric fields (past/present climate data) for the period 1871-2008 with a 2o resolution.

• It will be used to understand large-scale circulation patterns associated with bushfires and heat-waves.

• Seasonal bushfire potential in the 20th century will be explored with these data.

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)

• CMIP5 provides climate simulations (future climate data).

• Coordinates the efforts of 20 modeling groups with approximately 50 models.

• Seasonal bushfire potential in the 21th century will be explored with these data.

Phases of the Project

Phase I• Understanding bushfire and heat-wave synoptics

and dynamics.

Phase II• Construction and validation of the Victorian

Seasonal Bushfire Index (VSBI).

Phase III

• Projection of the VSBI with modelled outputs for the future.

-5 to +5 daily composites of

bushfire and heat-waves anomalies

(20CRV2, HadISST1)

Evaluation of statistical

significance of anomalies

Composites of anomalies for possible bushfire

preconditioning seasons(20CRV2, HadISST1)

Validation of bushfire events

data base(PerilAUS database)

Definition of bushfire season

Definition of significant bushfire

season

Generation of daily FFDI times series for 20th century

(20CRV2)

Comparison with a second bushfire

events data base

Validation of FFDI times series

Lucas (2007) data.Validation of

bushfire events data base

Phase IDefinition of heat-

waves

DefinitionActivity

Validation

Reevaluation of daily and seasonal

composites

Validation of VSBI

Phase IISelection of variables

Selection of preconditioning

season

Selection of geographical

regions

Generation of normalized time

series of the anomalies of each

variable (sub-indices)

Correlation of VSBI with soil moisture

content(AWAP)

Correlation with seasons with at

least one day FFDI >75

VSBI (attempt 1) = Aggregation of sub-

indices

Investigation of modes of climate

variability and VSBI

Correlation between modes of climate variability indices and VSBI

DefinitionActivity

Validation

Phase III Definition of criteria to select climate model outputs

Review of literature of models

performance in Australia (CMIP5)

Review of literature of

selected models

Projection of VSBI with selected

model outputs and emissions scenarios

Evaluation of results

DefinitionActivity

Validation

Evaluation of climate model simulations to

reproduce FFDI and VSBI

RESULTSSo far…..

Day -1 Day 0 Day +1

Bush

fires

Hea

t-w

aves

Air temperature anomalies composites at 1000 hPa level for day -1 to day +1 of 144 bushfire and 95 heat-wave events in Victoria (periods 1900-2010 and 1903-2010)

Source: 20th Century Reanalysis Project, Peril AUS database and Sadler (2012)

Day -1 Day 0 Day +1

Bush

fires

Hea

t-w

aves

Relative humidity anomalies composites at 1000 hPa level for day -1 to day +1 of 144 bushfire and 95 heat-wave events in Victoria (periods 1900-2010 and 1903-2010)

Source: 20th Century Reanalysis Project, Peril AUS database and Sadler (2012)

Day -1 Day 0 Day +1

Bush

fires

Hea

t-w

aves

Geopotential height anomalies composites at 500 hPa level for day -1 to day +1 of 144 bushfire and 95 heat-wave events in Victoria (periods 1900-2010 and 1903-2010)

Source: 20th Century Reanalysis Project, Peril AUS database and Sadler (2012)

Source: HADISST dataset. Results blanked from -0.01 to 0.01 oC.

SST anomalies composites in Victoria

91 bushfire events1900-2010

74 heatwave events

1903-2010

Composites for seasonal (Sep-Oct-Nov)

anomalies in Victoria (59 bushfire seasons

considered in the period 1900–2010)

1000 hPa level air temperature

300 hPa level u wind

1000 hPa level relative humidity

Source: 20th Century Reanalysis Project and Peril AUS database

Source: Daily FFDI data obtained from Lucas (2010).

1972-1973

1974-1975

1976-1977

1978-1979

1980-1981

1982-1983

1984-1985

1986-1987

1988-1989

1990-1991

1992-1993

1994-1995

1996-1997

1998-1999

2000-2001

2002-2003

2004-2005

2006-2007

2008-20090

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Seasonal FFDI at Melbourne Airport Station 1972-2010

Seasonal FFDI-Sum (DJF)Seasonal FFDI-Sum (SON)

Bushfire seasons

FFD

I

Work aheadShort term

• Calculation and validation of daily FFDI data for the 20th century with reanalysis data.

• Validation of bushfire events database using calculated FFDI values.

• Reevaluation of daily and seasonal anomalies using the concept of significant bushfire season.

• Generation of time series of the average anomalies for the selected variables and execution of “attempt 1” for the construction of the VSBI.

Long term

• Exploration of new variables for subsequent attempts (e.g. precipitation anomalies).

• Validation of VSBI.

• Investigation of relationship between VSBI and climate modes of variability.

• Projection of the VSBI into de future using CMIP5 models.

Summary

A better understanding of synoptic

and large-scale

circulation patterns will help predict significant bushfires seasons better

The VSBI will be developed incorporating

this better understandin

g

The impact of climate

change in the frequency of significant bushfires

seasons will be explored

with the VSBI

Acknowledgements

• The National Secretary of Higher Education, Science, Technology and Innovation of Ecuador, SENESCYT.

• Mathew Mason and Katherine Haynes (Risk Frontiers-Macquarie University)

• Gil Compo (National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration).

• Christopher Lucas (Bureau of Meteorology).• Katherine Sadler, Linden Ashcroft and Mitchell Black

(The University of Melbourne).

References• Clarke, H. G., Smith, P. L., & Pitman, r. J. (2011). Regional signatures of future fire

weather over eastern Australia from global climate models. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 20(4), 550-562.

• Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R., Yin, X., Gleason, B., Vose, R., Rutledge, G., & Bessemoulin, P. (2011). The twentieth century reanalysis project. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137(654), 1–28.

• Hasson, A., Mills, G., Timbal, B., & Walsh, K. (2009). Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme fire weather events over southeastern Australia. Climate Research, 39(2), 159.

• Lucas, C. (2010). On developing a historical fire weather data-set for Australia. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal, 60(1), 1.

• Luke, R. H., & McArthur, A. G. (1978). Bush fires in Australia. Bush Fires in Australia.

• Noble, R., Bary, G. A. V., & Gill, A. M. (1980). McArthur's fire danger meters expresed as equations. Australian Journal of Ecology, 5, pp. 201-203.

• Sadler, K. (2012). Connections between heat waves in Melbourne and rainfall along the Queensland coast and the influence of Tasman Sea blocking and sea surface temperatures. (M.Sc.), University of Melbourne, Melbourne.

• Williams, Gill, M., & Bradstock, R. (2012). Flammable Australia : Fire Regimes, Biodiversity and Ecosystems in a Changing World: CSIRO Publishing.