diapositivas de la conferencia de gül kremer

PENNSTATE © GEO KREMER

PENNSTATE

Product Engineering Today

for Tomorrow:

Inspirations from Life Sciences

T. W. SIMPSON © GEO KREMER

Gül E. Kremer, PhD, MBA

Professor of Engineering Design & Industrial Engineering

The Pennsylvania State University

Program Director, National Science Foundation


Outline

• ADAPS Group

• Concept of Sustainability

• Carbon Footprint vs. Cost in Product Development

• Multiple-Generation Product Strategy (MGPS)

Dynamic State Variable Models

Does it fit? Case Study – Apple iPhones

Cannibalization

• NSF - INFEWS


Applied Decision Analysis for Improved Products & Systems Group (ADAPS Group)

http://www.personal.psu.edu/gek3

Sustainable Product Development DfX (Cannondale) Supply chain integration Design for Assembly & Remanufacturing Product Family Design & Optimization Design Complexity Systematic Design Ideation (TRIZ, SmartPens; GE Transportation) Smart Health (Triage improvement through MAUT, GT)


Mars One mission aims to establish a human settlement on Mars. 1

North and South America as they appear from space 35,000 km above the Earth. 2


I=PAT

• P - Population. World population reached 6 billion in 1999

and is expected to grow to over 9 billion by 2050 - Can the

earth sustain these numbers? 3

• A - Affluence. How much ‘stuff’ a person has. The US, the

world’s largest consumer society, greatly affects this term.

Is your residence full of stuff that seemed like a good idea to

own at the time of purchase, but you really do not need or

currently use?

• T- Technology. Where engineers play a leading role.

Technology can be used to reduce the ‘impact’ of the

products we produce. For example, fuel-efficient

cars, renewable energy sources, rechargeable

batteries, etc.


Population4


Population5


Sustainability

“development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” 6

“the level of human consumption and activity… so that the systems that provide goods and services to humans persist indefinitely” 7

“the delivery of competitively priced goods and services that satisfy human needs and bring quality of life, while progressively reducing ecological impact and resource intensity throughout the life cycle, to a level at least in line with Earth’s carrying capacity”8


Sustainability Terms

Carbon Footprint: The total amount of greenhouse gas emissions caused by an organization, event, product or person.9

Biological Capacity: “The capacity of ecosystems to produce useful biological materials and to absorb waste materials generated by humans, using current management schemes and extraction technologies. Biocapacity is usually expressed in areal terms as global hectares.” 10

Ecological Footprint: “A measure of how much area of biologically productive land and water an individual, population or activity requires to produce all the resources it consumes and to absorb the waste it generates, using prevailing technology and resource management practices.”10


Cost vs. Carbon Footprint in Design

& Operations Management

CANNONDALE FACTORY MEXICO 11

martes, 29 de abril de 2014


“Arianna Tucci Ron y su Scalpel 29er se colocan en un

admirable 3er lugar en la 3ª fecha del serial nacional

MTB en la pista Amealco , Querétaro remontando

después de verse involucrada en una caída en los

primeros segundos de la carrera, con esto la corredora

venezolana logra mantener la 3ª posición en el ranking

nacional dentro de la categoría femenil elite.” 11


Collaborative R&D Framework

Penn State, Oregon State, Wayne State, and industrial collaborators


Cost vs. Carbon Footprint in Design

& Operations Management

• Previous work

Included cost and lead time

Design for Assembly (DfA) rankings

Product architecture and modularity

• Previous work is expanded to include kg CO2 equivalent as

a sustainability metric accounting for:

Material extraction

Material processing

Transportation


Components and Supplier Options

Component Type 1 Type 2

Saddle Comfortable

saddle

Light weight saddle

Frame Steel frame w/o

suspension

Steel frame w/

suspension

Fork Steel fork w/o

suspension

Steel fork w/

suspension

Transmission Single speed

transmission

Transmission w/

six flywheels

Brake Reverse brake

rotor

Braking system

with brake shoes

Wheels Wheels w/ steel

spokes

Wheels w/ plastic

spokes

Supplier Location

2-Hip CA, USA

BBB Holland

Bombshell CA, USA

ATOM LAB CA, USA

Axxis CA, USA

SRAM IL, USA

Velo Taiwan

Tektro Taiwan

Shimano Japan

ALEX Taiwan

Spinner Taiwan

Falcon Taiwan


Analysis Tools

• SimaPro LCA software used to calculate kg CO2 equiv. for

materials, processing, and transportation

Life cycle inventory: ecoinvent database

Impact assessment: IPCC 2007 GWP 20a V1.02

• LINGO software used to find the combination of

components, suppliers, and product architecture using non-

linear programming to optimize:

Cost

Lead time

Sustainability (Carbon Footprint)


Fork Materials and Processes for Life Cycle Inventory

Example: Actual Processes to Produce Steel Fork


Sustainability: Material Compositions

Material mass (kg) B13 B54 SimaPro Process (ecoinvent database)

Medium carbon steel components

(e.g., frame, fork) 7.5294 5.3464 Steel, low-alloyed, at plant/RER U

Alloy and stainless steel

components (e.g., bearings) 2.47 2.784 Steel, electric, chromium steel 18/8, at plant/RER U

Composite nylon wheels 1.88 Nylon 66, glass-filled, at plant/RER U

Rubber components (e.g., tires and

brake pads) 1.52 1.554 Synthetic rubber, at plant/RER U

Saddle support structure (shell) 0.41 0.4 Polypropylene, granulate, at plant/RER U

Saddle cover 0.08 0.07 Polyvinylchloride, suspension polymerised, at

plant/RER U

Saddle padding 0.033 0.024 Polyurethane, flexible foam, at plant/RER U

Saddle thread 0.006 0.006 Viscose fibres, at plant/GLO U

Paint 0.06 Alkyd paint, white, 60% in H2O, at plant/RER U

Saddle glue 0.02 Acrylic binder, 34% in H2O, at plant/RER U


Sustainability: Manufacturing Process

Mass (kg) or Length (m) processed B13 B54 SimaPro Process (ecoinvent

database)

Steel component manufacturing (e.g.,

sprocket cutting/assembly) 9.9994 8.238

Steel product manufacturing,

average metal working/RER U

Tube drawing (e.g., frame tubes) 4.9114 4.0254 Drawing of pipes, steel/RER U

Injection molding (e.g., saddle shell

and tires) 1.93 3.834 Injection moulding/RER U

Wire drawing (e.g., springs and

spokes) 0.54 0.775 Wire drawing, steel/RER U

Forming of medium carbon steel flat

stock (e.g., for brackets) 1.044 0.546 Sheet rolling, steel/RER U

Forming of alloy/stainless steel flat

stock (e.g., for sprockets) 1.38 0.035 Sheet rolling, chromium steel/RER U

Welding of frame (estimated overall

weld length) 1 (m) 1 (m) Welding, gas, steel/RER U


Sustainability - Comparison of Carbon Footprint

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

B54

B13

CO2 Equivalent (kg)

Coal, hard, unspecif ied, in ground Oil, crude, in ground

Gas, natural, in ground Coal, brown, in ground


Mathematical Model

Objective Function

Min [Processing (MPCF) + Transportation (TCF)]


Optimization Results

NUMERICAL RESULTS 12 COST: Product Architecture

Part or

Module Supplier Location

ABCDEF X-Bike PA, USA

AB 2 Hip CA, USA

CD SRAM IL, USA

EF BBB Holland

(A) Saddle ATOM LAB CA, USA

(B) Frame 2 Hip CA, USA

(C) Fork X-Bike PA, USA

(D) Brake SRAM IL, USA

(E) Wheel BBB Holland

(F) Trans. BBB Holland

Op

tim

izin

g

(Min

imiz

ing)

Co

st

(US

Do

llars

)

Lea

d T

ime

(Da

ys)

Ca

rbon

Foo

tpri

nt

(kg

CO

2 e

q.)

Cost 83.74 54.20 60.48

Lead Time 109.3 38.80 65.85

Carbon

Footprint

99.94 172.80 44.18


Optimization Results - 2

LEAD TIME CARBON FOOTPRINT

Part or



ABC X-Bike PA, USA

DEF ATOM LAB CA, USA

EF Shimano Japan

(A) Saddle ATOM LAB CA, USA

(B) Frame Axxis CA, USA

(C) Fork X-Bike PA, USA

(D) Brake SRAM IL, USA

(E) Wheel Shimano Japan


Part or



ABC X-Bike PA, USA

DEF BBB Holland

(A) Saddle BBB Holland

(B) Frame X-Bike PA, USA

(C) Fork SRAM IL, USA

(D) Brake BBB Holland

(E) Wheel ATOM LAB CA, USA



Sustainability at the Design Stage

The design stage determines 70% of life cycle costs. It is important that design concurrently consider the

manufacturing of the product and its supply chain so that a company may gain:

The ability to reduce waste or increase recyclability of materials

Supplier selection insight

Integrated modularity options

End of life product recovery plans

Flexibility

Reduced costs

Sustainability for profitability


Optimization Challenge 13


Functions

Manufacturability and Sustainability

Processes Suppliers Product Architecture

Supply Chain Network

Integrated View14


What is missing?

• Imprints of engineering surround us in products and

systems that provide time-limited satisfaction to our

needs. Eventually we complain about their

obsolescence, then move on to the next widget or

system we deem “the next best thing” or “the must-

have” replacement . Widely varied needs and

resources of 7.3 billion people underlie the

abandoned products and systems affected by this

vicious cycle of waste. Indeed, product engineering

is perhaps harder than ever before because most

products fail soon after their launch. Can product

engineering improve using life science approaches?



Gharib Research Group 15

The research on Zebrafish morphogenesis contributed to the development of a new bioinspired concept for pumping at the microscale.



Mercedes-Benz announced a bionic concept car that is based on the contours of the boxfish and takes advantage of its drag reduction benefits. 16, 17


Inspirations from Life Sciences 18


Cook: Apple has "learned not to worry about

cannibalization of our own product” 19

• “I see cannibalization as a huge opportunity for us. … Our

core philosophy is to never fear cannibalization. If we don’t

do it, someone else will. We know that iPhone has

cannibalized some of our iPod business. That doesn’t worry

us. We know that iPad will cannibalize some Macs.”


Apple Product Family 20, 21


Management of Used and End-Of-Life Electronics 22, 23

Ready for End-

of-Life

Management

(million units)

Disposed

(million units)

Collected for

Recycling

(million units)

Rate of

Collection for

Recycling

(by weight)

Computers 47.4 29.4 18 38%

Televisions 27.2 22.7 4.6 17%

Mobile Devices 141 129 11.7 8%


Multiple-generation Product Strategies24-27

In a MGPS, a line of multiple-generation products are sequentially

introduced; that is, the original model enters the market first, after which its

successors are introduced over time, each featuring newer technologies and

appearances but with essentially unchanged core foundations.

PENNSTATE © GEO KREMER 3

4

GE recognized that developing forward looking

MGPSs effectively enabled it to: better apply technologies to generations of products rather than applying

limited extant technologies on a single product;

concentrate R&D on the successive generations.

(Edelheit28)

Morgan et al.29 found that applying a forward looking

MGPS is significantly more profitable: 40% higher than introducing a single generation product;

26% higher than sequentially introducing a single generation product.

Multiple-generation Product Strategies


5

Cannibalization:

The scenario that multiple product generations directly compete with each

other in the same market.

May lead to unanticipated profit loss because less profitable older product

generations divide the market share originally expected to be monopolized

by the latest generation with the highest profit margin.

Market Fluctuations:

Change in customer behaviors/preferences;

Technology evolution.

Multiple-generation Product Strategies


6

Quantitative Models for Multiple-generation of Products

• Quantitative models toward MGPs can be divided into two categories:

1. Behavioral Models

Attempt to simulate and predict the behaviors of multiple-generation

product lines by applying following techniques:

– Bass diffusion model

– Integer programming technique

– Dynamic programming technique

– Fuzzy piecewise regression analysis

2. Dynamic Competition Models

Formulate the dynamic competitive scenarios of market and derive relative

market strategies regarding multiple-generation product lines.

Apply game theory based techniques and optimization.


7

Deficiencies of Existing Quantitative Models

• To develop a thorough MGPS for a forward looking MGPL, we

need a technique that can:

1. Forecast sales.

2. Forecast introduction timings.

3. Automatically determine the appropriate generations of products

for a certain product line lifecycle duration.

4. Generate optimal life time strategies.

• However, none of the existing models simultaneously possess all

the above capabilities.


8

Dynamic State Variable Models

• In the biology field, Dynamic State Variable Models are

widely used to simulate how organisms make decisions under a

dynamic environment in order to optimize their life and

maximize their overall fitness.

• It was first proposed by Houston et al.30

• Stochastic dynamic programming is the core of dynamic state

variable models.

• Applications of dynamic state variable models in ecology:

General life histories (Houston et al.30; McNamara and

Houston31)

Müllerian mimicry effect (Sherratt et al.32)

Behavior of macro-parasites (Fenton and Rands33)

Migration strategies of black brant (Purcell and Brodin34)


9

Why Use Dynamic State Variable Models? 35

Can simultaneously formulate multiple complex market conditions into one single model.

Can generate optimal state-wise decisions that are more accurate and closer to actual market situation.

Can take into account the interactions among multiple market conditions.


Cannibalization

• Cannibalism refers to one individual of a species consuming

all or part of another individual of the same species as food. 37

• Cannibalism has been recorded for more than 1500 species.36

It does not, as once believed, occur only as a result of extreme food shortages or artificial conditions, but commonly occurs under natural conditions. 36

Cartoon38


1

• Model settings for the case study:

1. We run the model with 6 different lifecycle durations T = 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55. (each time

period indicates one accounting season).

2. We use 150 states, and each state represents 200,000 units sale.

3. The polymonial boundaries Agg(t) and Th(t) are assumed to be symmetric at t = (T+1)/2.

4. We develop a program written in Excel VBA.

5. We run a Monte Carlo Forward Iteration 50 times to calculate the average introduction

timings.

) Methodology – The Cannibalization Model 35

Predicted introduction timings with different life-cycle durations comparing to the real iPhone product line:


Simulated results for each of the six lifecycle

durations output from the Monte Carlo Forward Iteration 35


3

What is the gain?

Prediction of appropriate introduction timing and number of

optimal product generations will help reduce waste from failed

products.


Population, Affluence, Sustainability in Mexico 39 M

exic

o P

op

ula

tio

n, M

illio

ns o

f P

eo

ple


Population, Affluence, Sustainability in Mexico 40 M

illio

ns o

f P

eo

ple

Me

xic

o, G

DP, U

S $

pe

r ca

pita

Mexico GDP

Mexico Population


Population, Affluence, Sustainability in Mexico Population, Affluence, Sustainability in Mexico41 G

lobal H

ecta

res P

er

Capita

Ecological Footprint

Biocapacity


Mexico

Human Welfare and Ecological Footprint Compared 41


The Question

Are we going to Mars?


Call for Change

•Let’s infuse every engineering problem

we tackle with sustainability constraints.

•Let’s have our faculty and students

embrace innovation for sustainability.

•INFEWS – Innovations at the Nexus of

Food, Energy and Water Systems


0

1. Photo credit: http://www.mars-one.com/

2. Photo credit: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=885

3. This formula is attributed to Paul Erlich, Barry Commoner and John Holdren. For further information please see the following:

1. Ehrlich, Paul R.; Holdren, John P. (1971). "Impact of Population Growth". Science (American Association for the

Advancement of Science) 171 (3977): 1212–1217. doi:10.1126/science.171.3977.1212. JSTOR 1731166. edit

2. Barry Commoner (May 1972). "A Bulletin Dialogue: on "The Closing Circle" - Response". Bulletin of the Atomic

Scientists: 17–56.

4. Population counter: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population

5. Graphic credit: http://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/global_population

6. Sustainability definition by the World Commission on Environment and Developmen

7. Sustainability definition by the US National Research Council in Rachuri, S., R. Sriram, and P. Sarkar. 2009. “Metrics, Standards

and Industry Best Practices for Sustainable Manufacturing Systems”. In IEEE International Conference on Automation Science

and Engineering, 472–477.

8. Mosovsky, J., Dickenson, D., and Morabito, J. (2000). “Creating Competitive Advantage Through Resource Productivity, Eco-

efficiency, and Sustainability in the Supply Chain” Proceedings of the International Symposium on Electronics and the

Environment.

9. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_footprint

10.http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/glossary/

11.http://www.windsorsportsgroup.com/news/35/cannondale-factory-mexico

12.Olson, E. , Okudan, G. E., Chiu, M-C., Haapala, K.R. (2011). “Positioning Product Architecture As the Driver for Carbon

Footprint & Efficiency Trade-offs in A Global Supply Chain”, 4th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and

Systems Management (IESM 2011), Metz, France.

13. Chiu, M-C. and Okudan, G.E. (2011). “Investigation of the Applicability of Design for X Tools during Design Concept

Evolution: A Literature Review”, International Journal of Product Development, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp.132-167.

14. Chiu, M-C. (2010). A Graph Theory-Based Integration of Product Design and Supply Chain Design”, PhD Dissertation,

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Department, Penn State University, December 2010.

References & Picture/Photo Credits

http://www.mars-one.com/



http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=885

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Holdren

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_(journal)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Association_for_the_Advancement_of_Science

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Association_for_the_Advancement_of_Science

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_object_identifier

http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.171.3977.1212

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JSTOR

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http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Template:Cite_doi/10.2307.2F1731166&action=edit&editintro=Template:Cite_doi/editintro2

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Commoner

http://books.google.com/books?id=pwsAAAAAMBAJ&lpg=PP1&pg=PA17#v=onepage&q&f=false




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulletin_of_the_Atomic_Scientists

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulletin_of_the_Atomic_Scientists

http://www.worldometers.info/world-population



http://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/global_population

http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/glossary/

http://www.windsorsportsgroup.com/news/35/cannondale-factory-mexico







15. http://www.gharib.caltech.edu/bioinspired_design/bio-tech.html

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17. http://reefguide.org/spottedboxfish.html

18. Bill Reed http://www.regenesisgroup.com

19. http://allthingsd.com/20130123/apple-ceo-dont-fear-cannibalization-embrace-it/

20. Graph prepared by Kijung Park

21. http://www.hashslush.com/iwatch-keynote-presentation/

22. http://www.epa.gov/osw/conserve/materials/ecycling/manage.htm

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25. http://uk.playstation.com/media/252644/Main_PS3_Image_345w.png

26. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3IEa2qaq8vg/TgTYPOMeKiI/AAAAAAAABLI/1knAaoc8ANc/ s1600/BMW-3-Series-

Running-View.jpg

27. http://www.sharkyextreme.com/img/2008/11/core_i7/chip_1.jpg

28. Edelheit L.S.(2004). Perspective on GE research and development. Research Technology Management. Vol. 47(1): 49-

55.

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http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3IEa2qaq8vg/TgTYPOMeKiI/AAAAAAAABLI/1knAaoc8ANc/ s1600/BMW-3-Series-Running-View.jpg













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39. http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/mexico-population/

40. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/population

41. From Global Footprint Network website at http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/trends/mexico/

42. Modified version by Travelplanner based on data from UN Development Programme and Global Footprint Network (Own

work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)],

via Wikimedia Commons

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https://mail.engr.psu.edu/owa/redir.aspx?C=QeyxyAsZJ0ms1RgQfuQ_wehnk-i_MNIIo_VPmmlfu2l9x-VYKAuaLUbYjfld8IiiblGnCBXUXCE.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fworldpopulationreview.com%2fcountries%2fmexico-population%2f



http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/population

https://mail.engr.psu.edu/owa/redir.aspx?C=QeyxyAsZJ0ms1RgQfuQ_wehnk-i_MNIIo_VPmmlfu2l9x-VYKAuaLUbYjfld8IiiblGnCBXUXCE.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.footprintnetwork.org%2fen%2findex.php%2fGFN%2fpage%2ftrends%2fmexico%2f

https://mail.engr.psu.edu/owa/redir.aspx?C=QeyxyAsZJ0ms1RgQfuQ_wehnk-i_MNIIo_VPmmlfu2l9x-VYKAuaLUbYjfld8IiiblGnCBXUXCE.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fcreativecommons.org%2flicenses%2fby-sa%2f3.0



https://mail.engr.psu.edu/owa/redir.aspx?C=QeyxyAsZJ0ms1RgQfuQ_wehnk-i_MNIIo_VPmmlfu2l9x-VYKAuaLUbYjfld8IiiblGnCBXUXCE.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fwww.gnu.org%2fcopyleft%2ffdl.html

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