dick bolt code 302 may 13-17, 2002

Final Version

Dick BoltCode 302

May 13-17, 2002

Micro-Arcsecond Imaging Mission, Pathfinder (MAXIM-PF)

Mission Success

MAXIM-PF, May 13-17, 2002Goddard Space Flight Center

Mission Success

Final Version

Summary

Mission Success Even with Fully Redundant S/C buses, the continuing Phase I & II operation is

expected to have low probability of completing the full four (4) Year mission Design Considerations

Hub S/C Recommend either redundant Laser ranger devices or Laser beams from at least (2)

separate Laser devices of both wide & narrow beam Detector S/C

Redundant design looks good Free Flyer S/Cs

Redundant design looks good

Mission Success Alternatives From a Reliability standpoint, other designs should be considered

Two separate Detector S/C (single string) with: Single Hub S/C (Fully Redundant) with Free Flyers or: Two separate Hubs ( single string ) without Free Flyers

R&S Support Cost 1 Million $ To support both Reliability & System Safety effort for at least 3

years


Mission Success

Final Version

Assumptions

Mission Length Phase I

Mission length to be 1 Yr with Phase II to follow. Six (6) Months to get in orbit

Phase II Mission length to be 3 Yrs / 5 Year Goal

Total ( Phase I & II ) Four (4) Years with 5 Year Goal

Redundancy Hub S/C –-Put Redundancy into Hub design & not Free Flyer Detector S/C –Fully redundant design needed


Mission Success

Final Version

S/C Components

Phase I Lens S/C (Hub)

Tunable X-Ray Optical System Star Tracker S/C Bus

Propulsion System ACS Laser Ranger to Detector S/C

Six(6) attached Free Flyers acting as extra X-Ray reflectors

Detector S/C RF Com to Earth Propulsion System ACS

############################################## Phase II

Lens S/C (Hub) Tunable X-Ray Optical System Star Tracker S/C Bus

Propulsion System ACS Laser Ranger

Detachable Lens sections ( 6 units ) Release Mech. Tunable X-Ray Optical System

Detector S/C Super Star Tracker Cryo Cooler RF Com to Earth Propulsion System ACS


Mission Success

Final Version

Reliability Block DiagramPhase I

Hub S/CBus

Detector S/C Bus

FF Bus

Hub Devices Detector Devices

Launch VehicleDelta IV

HydrazineInjection Propulsion

System


Mission Success

Final Version

Reliability Block DiagramPhase II

Detector Devices

Detector S/C Bus

HubDevices

FF Bus

Hub TunableMirrorsHub S/C

Bus

FF Laser Com

FF #2

FF # 3

FF # 4

FF # 5

FF # 6

Free Flyer (FF #1)

S/C #1 of 6

Detector S/C

Hub S/C

Launch VehicleDelta IV

HydrazineInjection

Propulsion System


Mission Success

Final Version

Quick Mission Reliability Estimate

Phase I Best Case Est. Mode I ( 2 Yr Mission ) 1?

Without LV & Injector Prop. : .9 X.98 X.9 X.98 = 78% @ 1 YrWith LV & Injector Prop.: .78 X .94 X .99 = 72 % @ 1 Yr

Phase I & II Best Case Est. Mode I & II ( 4 Yr Mission Total )

Without LV & Injector Prop. : .9 X.95 X.9 X.95 = 63% @ 4 YrsWith LV & Injector Prop.: .63 X .94 X .99 = 58.6% @ 4 Yrs

LV=Launch Vehicle


Mission Success

Final Version

Launch Vehicle

Delta IV 94% Launch success Est. by Mfg. Air Force committed to future launches 1st stage is new design

Hydrazine Propulsion L-2 Orbit Injection System No Reliability info, assume similar to S/C Hydrazine propulsion system 99% or better


Mission Success

Final Version

Deployments

Hub S/C Laser Lens Cap 6 Detachable Free Flyers

Detector S/C 2 RF X-Band High Gain (dish) Antennas

Free Flyer S/Cs None on S/C

Separation Systems Separation of Hydrazine Propulsion Orbit Insertion System Separation of Hub from Detector & attached Free Flyers Separation of Six(6) separate Free Flyer units from the Hub


Mission Success

Final Version

Full PRA Version Requirement AssumedWill likely include Fault Tree Success DiagramFull Reliability evaluation for both Spacecraft Bus & all InstrumentsReliabilityGSFC Code 302 would likely play the coordinator of the operation even if an RSDO bus was chosenInstrument Reliability will likely be done by design & builder of each.System SafetyGSFC Code 302 would likely play the coordinator of the Safety Data Package ( Only one(1) expected to cover all) even if an RSDO bus was chosenCost Estimate: 1.0 Million $ Basis is: 1 FTE ( based on GSFC contractor $ ) for each discipline for 3 years .Likely more if GSFC Code 302 monitors or supervises coordination of effort by other contractors

PRA Support & CostsReliability & System Safety


Mission Success

Final Version

Back-Up Slides

See RSDO S/C Bus Reliability Information Graph


Mission Success

Final Version

0 2 106

4 106

6 106

8 106

1 105

1.2 1051.4 10

51.6 10

51.8 10

52 10

50.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

11 Year Curve

exp Z k

k

S/C Bus Reliability Curve

Fully Redundant

Single String

RSDO S/C Bus Reliability For One (1) Year Mission

Rel ia

bi li

ty %

Failure Rate in Failures / Million Hrs


Mission Success

Final Version

Single S/C 3 YearBus Reliability

0 1.8 1063.6 10

65.4 10

67.2 10

69 10

61.08 10

51.26 10

51.44 10

51.62 10

51.8 10

50.6

0.62

0.64

0.66

0.68

0.7

0.72

0.74

0.76

0.78

0.8

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

13 Yr Reliability Curve

S/C Failure Rate in Failures/Million Hrs

Rel

iabi

lity

%

1

0.64

exp Z k

1.7 1050 k

Fully Redundant S/C Bus

Single String S/C Bus

Partially Redundant S/C Bus Area

3 Year Mission—Spacecraft Bus Only (Based On RSDO S/C Bus Reliability Info)


Mission Success

Final Version

RSDO S/C Bus Reliability For Four (4) Year Mission

0 2 106

4 106

6 106

8 106

1 105

1.2 1051.4 10

51.6 10

51.8 10

52 10

50.4

0.48

0.55

0.63

0.7

0.78

0.85

0.93

1

Failures / Million Hrs

Rel

iabi

lity

1

0.496

exp Z k

2 1050 k

Fully RedundantS/C Bus area

Reliability

Failure Rate

dick bolt code 302 may 13-17, 2002

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