dick bond
DESCRIPTION
Dick Bond. Inflation & its Cosmic Probes , now & then. CMB & tilted L CDM status as of Feb 25, 2008:. ACBAR08 & CBI5year peaks 3+4+5+damping & ACBAR excess cf. CBI excess WMAP5year aph this week; @CIFAR08 next week. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Dick Bond
CMB & tilted CDM status as of Feb 25, 2008:
Inflation & its Cosmic Probes, now & then
ACBAR08 & CBI5year peaks 3+4+5+damping & ACBAR excess cf. CBI excess
WMAP5year aph this week; @CIFAR08 next week
July 1982 Nuffield Conference on Very Early Universe Cambridge: how to test inflation – gravitational metric / density fluctuation spectrum
Outgrowth: nearly scale invariant, amplitude TBD
Dec 2007 VEU 25 years after: assess the progress on inflation, both theoretical and observational
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Dick Bond
Inflation Then k=(1+q)(a) = -dlnH/dlna
~r(k)/16 0< <1
= multi-parameter expansion in (lnHa ~ lnk)
~ 10 good e-folds in a (k~10-4Mpc-1 to ~ 1 Mpc-1 LSS)
~ 10+ parameters? Bond, Contaldi, Huang, Kofman, Vaudrevange 08 H(), V()
Inflation Now1+w(a) goes to 2(1+q)/3
~1 good e-fold. only ~2params s= (dlnV/d)2/4 @ pivot pt
all 1+w <2/3 trajectories give an allowed potential & kinetic energy but …
Huang, Bond & Kofman 07
~0 to 2 to 3/2 to ~.4 now, on its way to 0?
Inflation Trajectories, now & then
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INFLATION NOW
PROBES NOW
Cosmological Constant (w=-1)
Quintessence
(-1≤w≤1)
Phantom field (w≤-1)
Tachyon fields (-1 ≤ w ≤ 0)
K-essence
(no prior on w)
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Measuring constant w (SNe+CMB+WL+LSS) 1+w = 0.02 +/- 0.05
w(a)=w0+wa(1-a)piecewise parameterization
4,9,40 modes in redshift9 & 40 into Parameter eigenmodes
data cannot determine >2 EOS parameters DETF Albrecht etal06, Crittenden etal06,
hbk07
1=0.12 2=0.32 3=0.63
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Inflation Now1+w(a)= sf(a/aeq;as/aeq;s) Zhiqi Huang, Bond & Kofman07: 3-param formula
accurately fits slow-to-moderate roll & even wild rising baroque late-inflaton trajectories, as well as thawing & freezing trajectoriesCosmic Probes Now CFHTLS SN(192),WL(Apr07),CMB,BAO,LSS,Ly
s= (dlnV/d)2/4 = late-inflaton (potential
gradient)2
=0.0+-0.25 now;
weak as < 0.3 (zs >2.3) now
s to +-0.07 then Planck1+JDEM SN+DUNE WL, weak as <0.21 then, (zs >3.7)
3rd param s (~ds /dlna) ill-determined now & then
cannot reconstruct the quintessence potential, just the slope s & hubble drag info
(late-inflaton mass is < Planck mass, but not by a lot)
Cosmic Probes Then JDEM-SN + DUNE-WL + Planck1
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Measuring the single parameter s
(SNe+CMB+WL+LSS+Lya)Modified CosmoMC with Weak Lensing and time-varying w models
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Measuring the 3 parameters with current data• Use 3-parameter formula over 0<z<4 &
w(z>4)=wh (irrelevant parameter unless large).
as <0.3 data (zs >2.3)
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INFLATION NOW
PROBES THEN
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Forecast: JDEM-SN (2500 hi-z + 500 low-z)
+ DUNE-WL (50% sky, gals @z = 0.1-1.1, 35/min2 ) +
Planck1yr
s=0.02+0.07-0.06
as<0.21 (95%CL)
(zs >3.7)
Beyond Einstein panel: LISA+JDEM
ESA (+NASA/CSA)
s (~ds /dlna) ill-determined
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CMB NOW
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R ? z = 0
Primary Anisotropies
•Tightly coupled Photon-Baryon fluid oscillations
• viscously damped
•Linear regime of perturbations
•Gravitational redshifting
Dec
oupl
ing
LSS
Secondary Anisotropies
•Non-Linear Evolution
•Weak Lensing
•Thermal and Kinetic SZ effect
•Submm/radio sources, etc.
z? ø 1100
19 Mpc
reionization
redshift z
time t13.7Gyrs 10Gyrs today
the nonlinear COSMIC WEB
I
N
F
L
A
T
I
O
N
13.7-10-50Gyrs
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CMBology
ForegroundsCBI, Planck
ForegroundsCBI, Planck
SecondaryAnisotropies (CBI,ACT)
(tSZ, kSZ, reion)
SecondaryAnisotropies (CBI,ACT)
(tSZ, kSZ, reion)
Non-Gaussianity(Boom, CBI, WMAP)
Non-Gaussianity(Boom, CBI, WMAP)
Polarization ofthe CMB, Gravity Waves
(CBI, Boom, Planck, Spider)
Polarization ofthe CMB, Gravity Waves
(CBI, Boom, Planck, Spider)
Dark Energy Histories(& CFHTLS-SN+WL)
Dark Energy Histories(& CFHTLS-SN+WL)
subdominant phenomena
(isocurvature, BSI)
subdominant phenomena
(isocurvature, BSI)
Inflation Histories(CMBall+LSS)
Inflation Histories(CMBall+LSS)
Probing the linear & nonlinear cosmic web
Probing the linear & nonlinear cosmic web
roulette inflation potential T=+i
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2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Polarbear(300 bolometers)@Cal
SZA(Interferometer) @Cal
APEX(~400 bolometers) @Chile
SPT(1000 bolometers) @South Pole
ACT(3000 bolometers) 3 frequencies @Chile
Planck08.9(84 bolometers)+ HEMTs @L2
9 frequencies
Bpol@L2
ALMA(Interferometer) @Chile
(12000 bolometers)SCUBA2
Quiet1
Quiet2Bicep @SP
QUaD @SP
CBI pol to Apr’05 @Chile
Acbar to Jan’06, 07f @SP
WMAP @L2 to 2009-2013?
2017
(1000 HEMTs) @Chile
Spider
Clover @Chile
Boom03@LDB
DASI @SP
CAPMAP
AMI
GBT
2312 bolometer @LDB
JCMT @Hawaii
CBI2 to early’08
EBEX@LDB
LMT@Mexico
LHC
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CMB/LSS Phenomenology CITA/CIfAR here
• Bond
• Contaldi
• Lewis
• Sievers
• Pen
• McDonald
• Majumdar
• Nolta
• Iliev
• Kofman
• Vaudrevange
• Huang
UofT here
• Netterfield
• Crill
• Carlberg
• Yee
& Exptal/Analysis/Phenomenology Teams here & there
• Boomerang03 (98)
• CBI5yr, CBI2
• Acbar08
• WMAP (Nolta, Dore)
• CFHTLS – WeakLens
• CFHTLS - Supernovae
• RCS2 (RCS1; Virmos-Descart)
CITA/CIfAR there
• Mivelle-Deschenes (IAS)
• Pogosyan (U of Alberta)
• Myers (NRAO)
• Holder (McGill)
• Hoekstra (UVictoria)
• van Waerbeke (UBC)
Parameter data now: CMBall_pol
SDSS P(k), BAO, 2dF P(k)
Weak lens (Virmos/RCS1, CFHTLS, RCS2) ~100sqdeg Benjamin etal.
aph/0703570v1
Lya forest (SDSS)
SN1a “gold”(192,15 z>1) CFHTLS
then: ACT (SZ), Spider, Planck, 21(1+z)cm GMRT,SKA
• Dalal
• Dore
• Kesden
• MacTavish
• Pfrommer
• Shirokov
• Dalal
• Dore
• Kesden
• MacTavish
• Pfrommer
• Shirokov
ProkushkinProkushkin
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WMAP3 sees 3rd pk, B03 sees 4th ‘‘Shallow’ scan, 75 hours, fShallow’ scan, 75 hours, fskysky=3.0%, large scale TT=3.0%, large scale TT
‘‘deep’ scan, 125 hours, fsky=0.28% 115sq deg, ~ Planck2yrdeep’ scan, 125 hours, fsky=0.28% 115sq deg, ~ Planck2yr
B03+B98 final soon
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Current state
October 06
You are seeing this before people in the
field
Current state
October 06
You are seeing this before people in the
field
Current state
October 06
Polarization
a Frontier
Current state
October 06
Polarization
a Frontier
WMAP3 V band
CBI E CBI B
CBI 2.5 yr EE, ~ best so far, ~QuaD
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Reichardt et.al. astro-ph Thurs Jan 10
2.1 x detector-hours of ACBAR07
4.9 x sky coverage of ACBAR07 1.7% of sky
Calibration uncertainty down to 2.2% from 6% via WMAP3
Reichardt et.al. astro-ph Thurs Jan 10
2.1 x detector-hours of ACBAR07
4.9 x sky coverage of ACBAR07 1.7% of sky
Calibration uncertainty down to 2.2% from 6% via WMAP3
ACBAR08ACBAR08
3rd & 4th & 5th peaks, brilliant damping tail
ACBAR excess > 2000, 1.7sigma consistent with CBI excess (tSZ), but could be enhanced sub-mm sources @ 150 GHz
3rd & 4th & 5th peaks, brilliant damping tail
ACBAR excess > 2000, 1.7sigma consistent with CBI excess (tSZ), but could be enhanced sub-mm sources @ 150 GHz
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ACBAR sees 3rd 4th 5th peaks
& damping tail out to 2000+
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Lens – no-lens ~3
but it would prefer a larger amplitude ~2.3 times the
Lens – no-lens CL rather than 1
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CBI excess 04, 2.5 yrs cf. CBI excess Feb08,
4.5 yrs
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Current high L state
Feb08
Current high L state
Feb08 CBI5yr excess 08
ACBAR08 excess
marginalization critical to get ns & dns /dlnk; tSZ, radio, submm sources
tSZ~f( x 87 x
CL-SZ template
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weak lensing CFHTLS’07
+ Virmos-Descart
s8 = 0.80 +- .05
if m = 0.26
acbar08+CBIcomb05+BIMA+WMAP3+
Std 6 + 8SZ7
8 = 0.80±0.03 primary = 0.95±0.04 SZ SZtemplate-dependent
(m = 0.26±0.03)
primary lensed cmb + submm sources
(enhanced)
primary lensed cmb + SZ sources
CBI only
8 dilemma
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CMB THEN
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ACT@5170m
CBI2@5040m
why Atacama? driest desert in the world. thus: cbi, toco, apex,
asti, act, alma, quiet, clover
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WMAP-BOOM-ACBAR-ACT:
the high resolution frontier
Toby marriage 01.08 for the act
collabration
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Cluster (SZ, KSZ
X-rays, & optical) Diffuse SZ
OV/KSZ
CMB: l>1000
Lensing
Observations: Science: Growth of structure
Eqn. of state
Neutrino mass
Ionization history
ACT Atacama Cosmology Telescope
Inflation
Columbia HaverfordU. KwaZulu-NatalRutgers U. Catolica
Cardiff
UMass
CUNY
UBCNISTINAOE NASA/GSFC
UPenn U. Pittsburgh TorontoPrinceton
Collaboration:
Power spectrum
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ACBAR-ACT: Bullet Cluster a la Clowe
6 min of ‘07 data @ 145 GHz (30d)
2008: 145, 215, 280 GHZ @ 1000 bolometers each; observing plan 0.5yr in 08 & in 09
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PRIMARY END @ 2012? PRIMARY END @ 2012?
CMB ~2009+ Planck1+WMAP8+SPT/ACT/Quiet+Bicep/QuAD/Quiet +Spider+Clover
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COSMIC PARAMETERS NOW & THEN
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Standard Parameters of Cosmic Structure Formation
Òk Òbh2 ÒË nsÒdmh2
nt
lnAs r = A t=Asüc
òø `à1s
r < 0.47 or
< 0.28 95% CLø lnû2
8
dns=dlnk
ï (k); k ù HalnH(kp)
New Parameters of Cosmic Structure Formation
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ns = .962 +- .014 (+-.005 Planck1)
.93 +- .03 @0.05/Mpc run&tensor
r=At / As < 0.47cmb 95% CL (+-.03 P1)
<.36 CMB+LSS run&tensor;
< .05 ln r prior!
dns /dln k=-.04 +- .02 (+-.005 P1)
CMB+LSS run&tensor prior change?
As = 22 +- 2 x 10-10
The Parameters of Cosmic Structure FormationThe Parameters of Cosmic Structure FormationCosmic Numerology: aph/0801.1491 – our Acbar paper on the basic 7+; bckv07
WMAP3modified+B03+CBIcombined+Acbar08+LSS (SDSS+2dF) + DASI (incl polarization and CMB weak lensing and tSZ)
bh2 = .0226 +- .0006
ch2 = .116 +- .005
= .72 +.02- .03
h = .704 +- .022
m= .27 + .03 -.02
zreh = 11.7 +2.1- 2.4
1+w = 0.02 +/- 0.05 ‘phantom DE’ allowed?!
fNL=87+-60?! (+- 5-10 P1)
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INFLATION PARAMETERS
THEN ns (+-.005 Planck1)
r (+-.03 P1)
dns /dln k (+-.005 P1)
cf. .04 +- .02
fNL (+- 5-10 P1) cf. 87+-60?!
Blind scalar & tensor
power spectrum analyses
then
more parameters
Blind primoridial non-Gaussian analyses then
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INFLATION THEN INFLATION THEN WHAT IS ALLOWED?radically broken scale invariance
by variable braking as acceleration approaches deceleration,
preheating & the end of inflation k=(1+q)(a) =r(k)/16
WHAT IS ALLOWED?radically broken scale invariance
by variable braking as acceleration approaches deceleration,
preheating & the end of inflation k=(1+q)(a) =r(k)/16
Blind power spectrum analysis cf. data, then & now
expand kin localized mode functions e.g. Chebyshev/B-spline coefficientsb
the measures on b matter choice for “theory prior” = informed priors?
or dual ln P s(k);P t(k)
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ln (nodal 5) + 4 params. Uniform in exp(nodal bandpowers) cf. uniform in nodal bandpowers reconstructed from April07 CMB+LSS data using B-spline nodal point
expansion & MCMC: shows prior dependence with current data
ln (nodal 5) + 4 params. Uniform in exp(nodal bandpowers) cf. uniform in nodal bandpowers reconstructed from April07 CMB+LSS data using B-spline nodal point
expansion & MCMC: shows prior dependence with current data
self consistency: order 5
ln(+0.0001) ~ log prior
r(.002) <0.22
self consistency: order 5
ln(+0.1) ~uniform prior
r(.002) <0.55
1à ïà ï = d lnk
d lnH
V / H 2(1à 3ï ); d lnk
d inf = 1à ïæ ï
pP s(k) / H 2=ï ;P t(k) / H 2
ï = (d lnH =d inf)2
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ln (nodal 5) + 4 params. Uniform in exp(nodal bandpowers) cf. uniform in nodal bandpowers reconstructed from April07 CMB+LSS data using Chebyshev nodal point
expansion & MCMC: shows prior dependence with current data
ln (nodal 5) + 4 params. Uniform in exp(nodal bandpowers) cf. uniform in nodal bandpowers reconstructed from April07 CMB+LSS data using Chebyshev nodal point
expansion & MCMC: shows prior dependence with current data
extreme log prioruniform prior
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CL BB for ln (nodal 5) + 4 params inflation trajectories reconstructed from
CMB+LSS data using Chebyshev nodal point expansion & MCMC
CL BB for ln (nodal 5) + 4 params inflation trajectories reconstructed from
CMB+LSS data using Chebyshev nodal point expansion & MCMC
Planck satellite 2008.6 Spider
balloon 2009.9
Spider balloon 2009.9
uniform prior
extreme log prior
Spider+Planck broad-band
error
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Planck1 simulation: input LCDM (Acbar)+run+uniform tensor
Ps Pt reconstructed cf. input of LCDM with scalar running & r=0.1
s order 5 uniform prior
s order 5 log prior
lnPs lnPt (nodal 5 and 5)
order 5 expansions recover input r to r ~0.05
B-pol simulation: ~10K detectors > 100x Planck
stringent test of the -trajectory method: input recovered to r <0.001
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INFLATION THEN
INFLATION THEN
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1980
2000
1990
-inflation Old Inflation
New InflationChaotic inflation
Double Inflation
Extended inflation
DBI inflation
Super-natural Inflation
Hybrid inflation
SUGRA inflation
SUSY F-term inflation SUSY D-term
inflation
SUSY P-term inflation
Brane inflation
K-flationN-flation
Warped Brane inflation
inflation
Power-law inflation
Tachyon inflationRacetrack inflation
Assisted inflation
Roulette inflation Kahler moduli/axion
Natural pNGB inflation
Old view: Theory prior = delta function of THE correct one and only theoryOld view: Theory prior = delta function of THE correct one and only theory
Radical BSI inflation variable MP inflation
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Chaotic inflation
Power-law inflation
Natural pNGB inflation
Radical BSI inflation
lnV ~ = Uniform acceleration,
nsr
nsr
lnV ~ = Uniform acceleration,
nsr
nsrV/MP4 ~2rns4 rns
V/MP4 ~2rns4 rnsV (f|| , fperp
r(k), ns(k), (k)
V/MP4 ~red
4sin2fred -1/2nsfred-2
to match ns.96, r~0.032, fred~ 5, to match ns.97, r ~0.048, fred~ 5.8,
V/MP4 ~red
4sin2fred -1/2nsfred-2
to match ns.96, r~0.032, fred~ 5, to match ns.97, r ~0.048, fred~ 5.8,
anything goes
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Old view: Theory prior = delta function of THE correct one and only theoryOld view: Theory prior = delta function of THE correct one and only theory
New view: Theory prior = probability distribution on an energy landscape
whose features areare at best only glimpsed,
huge number of potential minima, inflation the late stage flow in the low
energy structure toward these minima. Critical role of collective coordinates in
the low energy landscape:
moduli fields, sizes and shapes of geometrical structures such as holes in
a dynamical extra-dimensional (6D) manifold approaching stabilization
moving brane & antibrane separations (D3,D7)
New view: Theory prior = probability distribution on an energy landscape
whose features areare at best only glimpsed,
huge number of potential minima, inflation the late stage flow in the low
energy structure toward these minima. Critical role of collective coordinates in
the low energy landscape:
moduli fields, sizes and shapes of geometrical structures such as holes in
a dynamical extra-dimensional (6D) manifold approaching stabilization
moving brane & antibrane separations (D3,D7)
Theory prior ~ probability of trajectories given potential parameters of
the collective coordinates X probability of the potential parameters X
probability of initial conditions
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Roulette inflation Kahler moduli/axion
Roulette: which minimum
for the rolling ball depends upon the throw; but which roulette wheel we
play is chance too.
The ‘house’ does not just play dice with
the world.
V~MV~MPP44 PPs s r r (1-(1-3)3) 3/2 3/2
~~ (10(101616 GevGev))44 r/0.1 r/0.1 (1-(1-3)3)
~(few x1013 Gev)4
ns ~ - dln ~ - dln dlnk /(1-dlnk /(1-i.e., a finely-tuned potential shape
V~MV~MPP44 PPs s r r (1-(1-3)3) 3/2 3/2
~~ (10(101616 GevGev))44 r/0.1 r/0.1 (1-(1-3)3)
~(few x1013 Gev)4
ns ~ - dln ~ - dln dlnk /(1-dlnk /(1-i.e., a finely-tuned potential shape
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Chaotic inflation
Roulette inflation Kahler moduli/axion
V/MP4 ~2rnsV/MP4 ~2rns
D3-D7 brane inflation, a la KKLMMT03 typical r < 10-10typical r < 10-10
. 2/nbrane1/2 << 1 BM06
General argument (Lyth96 bound): if the inflaton < the Planck mass, then over
since = (dd ln a)2 & r hence r < .007 …N-flation?
r <~ 10-10 As & ns~0.97 OK but by statistical selection!
running dns /dlnk exists, but small via small observable window
r <~ 10-10 As & ns~0.97 OK but by statistical selection!
running dns /dlnk exists, but small via small observable window
stringy inflation 2003-08
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forecast Planck2.5
100&143
Spider10d
95&150
Synchrotron pol’n
Dust pol’n
are higher in B
Foreground Template removals
from multi-frequency data
is crucial 10-40
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http://www.astro.caltech.edu/~lgg/spider_front.htmhttp://www.astro.caltech.edu/~lgg/spider_front.htm
No Tensor
SPIDER Tensor Signal
Tensor
• Simulation of large scale polarization signal
GW/scalar curvature: current from CMB+LSS: r < 0.47 or < 0.28 95%; good shot at 0.02 95% CL with BB polarization (+- .02 PL2.5+Spider), .01 target; Bpol .001
BUT foregrounds/systematics? But r(k), low Energy inflation
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Inflation then summarythe basic 6 parameter model with or without GW fits all of the data OK
Usual GW limits come from adding r with minimal consistency (7 params). r <.28
comes from relating high k region of 8 & LSS to low k region of GW CL
uniform priors in (k) ~ r(k)/16: for current data, (k) goes up at low k & the scalar power downturns (if there is freedom in the mode expansion to do this). Enforces GW.
lnTINY) prior gives lower r.
a B-pol with r<.001 breaks this prior dependence, even Planck+Spider r~.03
Prior probabilities on the inflation trajectories are crucial and cannot be decided at this time. Philosophy: be as wide open and least prejudiced as possible
An ensemble of trajectories arises in many-moduli string models. Roulette
inflation: complex hole sizes in `large 6D volume’ TINY r~10-10 & data-selected
braking to get ns & <<1 (general theorem: if the normalized inflaton < 1
over ~50 e-folds then r < .007). By contrast, for nearly uniform acceleration, (e.g.
power law & PNGB inflaton potentials), r ~.03-.3 but ~10. Is this deadly???
Even with low energy inflation, the prospects are good with Spider and even Planck to either detect the GW-induced B-mode of polarization or set a powerful
upper limit vs. nearly uniform acceleration, pointing to stringy or other exotic models. Both experiments have strong Cdn roles. Bpol is ~ 20x0
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• the data cannot determine more than 2 w-parameters (+ csound?). general higher order Chebyshev or spline expansion in 1+w as for “inflation-then” =(1+q) is not that useful. Parameter eigenmodes show what is probed
• The w(a)=w0+wa(1-a) phenomenology requires baroque potentials• Philosophy of HBK07: backtrack from now (z=0) all w-trajectories arising from
quintessence (s >0) and the phantom equivalent (s <0); use a 3-parameter model to well-approximate even rather baroque w-trajectories.
• We ignore constraints on Q-density from photon-decoupling and BBN because further trajectory extrapolation is needed. Can include via a prior on Q (a) at z_dec and z_bbn
• For general slow-to-moderate rolling one needs 2 “dynamical parameters” (as, s) & Q to describe w to a few %
for the not-too-baroque w-trajectories. A 3rd param s, (~ds /dlna) is ill-determined now & in a Planck1yr-CMB+JDEM-SN+DUNE-WL future.
• In the early-exit scenario, the information stored in as is erased by Hubble friction over the observable range & w can be described by a single parameter s.
• as is < 0.3 current data (zs >2.3) to <0.21 (zs >3.7) in Planck1yr-CMB+JDEM-SN+DUNE-WL future
• current observations are well-centered around the cosmological constant s=0.0+-0.25 • in Planck1yr-CMB+JDEM-SN+DUNE-WL future s to +-0.07• but one cannot reconstruct the quintessence potential, just the slope s & hubble drag info• late-inflaton mass is < Planck mass, but not by a lot
Inflation now summary
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End End