ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH INSTITUTE

Diet Transformation in Ethiopia

Ibrahim Worku, Mekdim Dereje, Bart Minten and Kalle Hirvonen IFPRI ESSP

Transformation and vulnerability in Ethiopia: New evidence to inform policy and investments

May 27, 2016Getfam Hotel, Addis Ababa

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Outline1. Introduction2. Food versus non-food expenditures3. Cereals versus non-cereals4. Non-cereal foods5. Urban versus rural6. Sources of food expenditures7. Income and the share of food/cereals8. Income and cereal expenditures 9. Calorie consumption10. Prices per calorie11. Calorie growth determinants12. Conclusions and implications

Type Food vs Non food

Location Urban vs Rural

Food Cereals vs Non Cereals

Source Produced vs

Market

Income Poor vs Non poor

Calorie Calorie Consumption Calorie Price Calorie Growth

Cereals Non cereals

Consumption Pattern

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Introduction• Rapid changes in Ethiopia’s economy (Ethiopia one of the fastest

growing economies in the world)

• Important increases in agricultural production in last decade

• Despite improvements in economy and in agricultural production, still important nutritional problems in the country

• Purpose of the analysis: Explore patterns and changes in Ethiopia’s food economy, based on nationally representative data (HICES), Central Statistical Agency (CSA).

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Food versus non-food expenditures1) Important welfare improvements

• Increasing real expenditures overall

• Food expenditures grew by 19% between 2011 and 2000

• Increasing share of non-food- 2000: 37%- 2005: 46%- 2011: 52% 2000 2005 20110

200400600800

10001200140016001800

FoodNon-food

Birr

/cap

ita

5

Cereals versus non-cereals2) Increasing diversification in the food basket• However, quantities of cereals

consumed is increasing: - 1996: 127 kgs/capita- 2000: 141 kgs/capita- 2005: 150 kgs/capita- 2011: 155 kgs/capita• Share of cereals in expenditures on

the decline

2000 2005 2011010203040506070

cereals non-cereals

Shar

e in

food

exp

endi

ture

s (%

)

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Non-cereal foods3) Diversification into high-value food types• Non-cereal foods on the rise: - animal products- oils and fats - F&V - Coffee/tea/chat 2000 2005 20110

2468

1012

animal products oil and fatF&V enset/kochocoffee/tea/chat

% fo

od e

xpen

ditu

res

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Cereals4) Considerable variation within cereal consumption• In kg terms, maize most important

cereals • Maize consumption increasing over

time (37 kgs in 2000 ; 51 kgs in 2011)• In expenditure terms, teff, wheat

and maize equally important (each about 7.5% of expenditures)

• Processed cereals not important yet overall (4.6% of expenditures)

2000 2005 2011020406080

100120140160

teff wheat barleymaize sorghum other

kg/c

apita

/yea

r

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Urban versus rural5) Important difference between urban and rural• Urbanization low in Ethiopia but

taking off• Has implication on Ethiopia’s food

economy• Urban residents have different food

basket:- More consumption of teff and meat- Lower consumption of maize and

sorghum

teffsorghum

maizeprocessed cereals

animal productsenset/kocho

F&V

-1 1 3 5 7 9 111315

RuralUrban

% food expenditures

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Sources of food expenditures6) Food markets becoming more important • Food in rural areas mostly acquired

through own consumption (42%) • However, food markets (sales of

food for food purchase (34%)) already important in rural areas and very high in urban areas

• Salaries/wages, sales of non-ag. products, and remittances important in urban areas

Auto-consumption

Sale ag. products

Sale non-ag. products

Salary/wage

Remittances

Others

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

UrbanRural

% food expenditures

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Income and the share of food/cereals7) Important difference between the poor and non-poor

Poorest q2 q3 q4 Richest0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2011 2005 2000

Shar

e of

food

in to

tal e

xp. (

%)

Poorest

q2 q3 q4 richest0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2011 2005 2000

Shar

e of

cer

eals

in fo

od e

xp.

(%)

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Income and cereal expenditures • Share of cereals going down for

richer households• Teff (9.1% versus 4.4%) and

processed cereals (8.9% versus 2.6%) more eaten by the rich than by poor

• Maize (13.0% versus 2.6%) and sorghum (6.9% versus 1.8%) more eaten by the poor than by the rich

Poorest

q2 q3 q4 Richest05

10152025303540

teff wheatbarley maize sorghum processed cereals

% fo

od e

xpen

ditu

res

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Income and non-cereal expenditures • Share of non-cereals going up for

richer households• Animal products (17.6% versus

6.6%) more eaten by the rich than by poor

• Enset/kocho (6.4% versus 1.7%) and pulses (10.1% versus 7.6%) more eaten by the poor than by the rich

Poorest q2 q3 q4 Richest0

10203040506070

animal products pulses oil and fatF&V enset/kocho coffee/tea/chatother

% fo

od e

xpen

ditu

res

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Calorie consumption8) Average calorie consumption improving• Average calorie consumption 9%

higher in last decade • Cereals stays major source of

calories:- 2000: 65%- 2005: 61%- 2011: 62%• Maize makes up 20% of calorie

consumption in 2011

2000 2005 20110500

100015002000250030003500

cereals non-cereals

Kcal

/day

/adu

lt eq

uiva

lent

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Prices per calorie9) Large variation in prices paid per calorie • Maize is the cheapest source of

calories (followed closely by enset, sorghum, and root crops)

• Processed cereals four times as expensive as non-processed

• Cereals half the price of non-cereals

maizeenset/kocho

sorghumroot crops

barleyteff

wheatsugar and salt

oil and fatprocessed cereals

-0.4 0.1 0.6

Birr/kcal

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10) Increase in calorie consumption is mainly due to growth in incomeDecomposition of the changes in calorie intakes

Overall Year 2011 7.99***Year 1996 7.73***difference 0.26***explained 0.256***unexplained 0.005explained(log) real expenditure (aeu) 0.22***

(log) real calorie cost per day 0.05***Other controls Yesobservations 39,748

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Conclusions• Important food diet transformation in the last decade:1/ Average quantity (+23%) and calorie (+9%) consumption has improved significantly

2/ Share of cereals in expenditures on the decline (43% in 2000; 35% in 2011)

3/ Consumption of more expensive foods on the rise (animal foods; processed foods; coffee/tea/chat) • Large differences in food consumption by income levels and between urban

and rural populations

4) Growth in calorie consumption is mainly explained by growth in income

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Implications1/ Agricultural policy successful in promoting cereal productivity in the past; however, more demand for diversified foods; more emphasis required in the future on diversification in non-cereal production

2/ Agricultural markets play more important role in food economy; further stimulate these markets and better understand constraints in their functioning

3/ While average improvements, part of the population no adequate diets; further continuation and strengthening of nutrition-sensitive safety nets required