digital layer trends - postal vision 2020...• capturing the smb marketing automation opportunity...
TRANSCRIPT
1 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com © 2012 InfoTrends
Digital Layer Trends PostalVision 2020
Matt Swain Associate Director June 12, 2012
@SwainfoTrends
@InfoTrends
#PV2020
2 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Comprehensive Research on Customer Communications
• Vertical Insight: Enterprise Communication Requirements (Announced)
• Service Expansion Opportunities for Document Outsourcing (In Progress)
• The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services (2011)
• Capturing the SMB Marketing Automation Opportunity (2011)
• Mobile Technology: Making Print Interactive (2011)
• The Future of EBPP in North America (2010)
• Capturing the Cross-Media Direct Marketing Opportunity (2010)
• Trans Meets Promo: A European Perspective (2009)
• Multi-Channel Communications Measurement and Benchmarking (2008)
• Trans Meets Promo… Is It More Than Market Hype? (2008)
3 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Agenda
Digital Disruption
Relevance of the Postal Service in a Digital Age
Preview of the UPU .post Initiative
Conclusions and Recommendations
1
2
3
4
4 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Strategic Paths for Service Providers
Innovation Driven
Operations Driven
Dying
Surviving Thriving
Greater
• speed • quality • efficiency • sustainability • customer service
New
• services • products
• customers • business models
Continuous investments in …
•technology •business processes •sales & marketing
that lead to …
Striving
5 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Digital Disruption
6 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Social Media Statistics at a Glance
• More than 900 million Facebook users
− People spend over 700 billion minutes per month on the site
• LinkedIn has over 150 million members in 200 countries
− A new member joins every second
• There are over 200 million Twitter accounts
− 20% of tweets contain brand-related inquiries about products/services
• YouTube exceeds 3 billion views per day
− Over 72 hours of video are uploaded every minute, 4,320 hours every hour, and 103,680 hours every day
7 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com Image source: Apple.com
8 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Continued Growth in Mobile Connectivity
9 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
The Consumer of Today The Consumer of the Future
Image source: Apple.com
10 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
11 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Millions of Mobile Payments Made at Starbucks
Source: Starbucks
12 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
$39,132 $38,071 $39,045
$43,432
$49,698
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Q1
20
07
Q2
20
07
Q3
20
07
Q4
20
07
Q1
20
08
Q2
20
08
Q3
20
08
Q4
20
08
Q1
20
09
Q2
20
09
Q3
20
09
Q4
20
09
Q1
20
10
Q2
20
10
Q3
20
10
Q4
20
10
Q1
20
11
Q2
20
11
Q3
20
11
Q4
20
11
Q1
20
12
Q2
20
12
Q3
20
12
Q4
20
12
E-Commerce Spending Growth Continues in the U.S.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$ Millions
Source: Q1 2012 U.S. retail e-commerce sales estimates, comScore, 2012
?
13 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
New Paper from the USPS Office of Inspector General
Opening sentence:
“As a highly trusted, venerable government institution with both a legal mandate to protect privacy and the authority to protect users from fraud, the U.S. Postal Service is in a unique position to play a key part in a vital infrastructure for new digital identity creation and authentication services.”
Source: Risk Analysis Research Center, Office of Inspector General, USPS, 2012
14 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Preferred Way to Receive Mail in the Future
50%
32% 34%
32%
61%
48% 44%
63%
46%
31%
2% 4% 3%
22%
8%
Personal correspondence
Business correspondence
Transactional mail Advertising mail Periodicals
Physical Digital Don't send/Don't know
How would you prefer to receive the majority of each type of mail in the future?
N = 1,528 Consumers in the U.S.
Source: The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services, InfoTrends, 2011
15 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
24.5 23.9 23.0 21.9 20.5 18.7
3.7 4.3 5.2 6.5 8.3 10.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Paper Digital
Billions of Documents Delivered
28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.2
Source: The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services, InfoTrends, 2011
B2C Forecast for Transactional Communications in the U.S.
16 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Hybrid Mail Services – Solving a Near-term Problem
Physical to Digital
Digital to Physical
17 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com Source: "The Electronic Nails in the Post Office’s Coffin,” Businessweek, September 8, 2011
18 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Digital Mailbox Services – Solving a Long-term Problem
United States
International (a sampling)
19 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
24.5 23.9 23.0 21.9 20.5 18.7
3.7 4.3 5.1 6.2 7.6 8.5
2.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Paper Other Digital Digital Mailbox
Billions of Documents Delivered
Source: The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services, InfoTrends, 2011
Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services in the U.S.
28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.2
20 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Relevance of the Postal Service in a Digital Age
21 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
USPS Viewed as “Not Necessary” or “Minimally Important”
6%
12%
29%
16%
27%
31%
Today In 5 Years In 10 Years
Business Consumer
Relative to your business needs/lifestyle, how would you rate the value of the U.S. Postal Service over the next 10 years?
Source: The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services, InfoTrends, 2011
N = 301 businesses and 1,528 Consumers in the U.S.
22 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Support for Various Changes in Postal Delivery
35%
17%
40%
30%
19%
34%
Eliminates Saturday Delivery
Delivers Mail 3 Days a Week
Delivers Mail 3 Days a Week AND Delivers Digital
Mail Daily
Business Consumer
How would you/your organization react if the U.S. Postal Service eliminated Saturday mail delivery? Delivered mail three days a week? Delivered mail three days a week, but delivered digital mail every day?
Source: The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services, InfoTrends, 2011
N = 301 businesses and 1,528 Consumers in the U.S.
23 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
N = 1,138 Respondents that are already using/willing to try a digital mailbox service
Most Attractive Potential Providers of Digital Mailbox Services (Consumer Survey)
Source: The Emergence of Digital Mailbox Services, InfoTrends, 2011
9%
9%
9%
9%
10%
14%
14%
17%
23%
32%
Microsoft
Yahoo!
American Express
Apple
U.S. Postal Service
Chase
Bank of America
My own bank or credit union
Amazon
If the following organizations all offered digital mailbox services, which ones would you be most likely to try?
Three Responses Permitted
24 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
• The Postal Service Role in the Digital Age Part 1: Facts and Trends
• The Postal Service Role in a Digital Age Part 2: Expanding the Postal Platform
• eMailbox and eLockbox: Opportunities for the Postal Service
• Bridging the Digital Divide: Overcoming Regulatory and Organizational Challenges
• Meeting America’s Emerging Communications Needs
• Digital Identity: Opportunities for the Postal Service
25 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
26 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Number of Postal e-Services Introduced Globally
0 0 2 0 3
11 5
9 11
34
53
23 25
36 38
52 50
33
55
82 85
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Source: Measuring Postal e-Services Developments: An Industry Perspective, UPU, 2011
27 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com Source: Measuring Postal e-Services Developments: An Industry Perspective, UPU, 2011
Worldwide Development of Postal e-Services versus the Mean Level of their Respective Importance
28 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Preview of the UPU .post Initiative
29 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
30 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Conclusions and Recommendations
31 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
Degree of Change
Time
Changes in the Environment - Economy - Customer - Competitive - Technology
Misalignment Gap between
environment and company changes
Source: IBM Business Model Transformation, adapted from Gerry Johnson, Kevan Scholes, Richard Whittington, Exploring Corporate Strategy, 7th Edition © 2005 Prentice Hall, Pearson Education Limited
GAP
Incremental business model
innovation
Changing Market Dynamics Require New Approaches
Transformational business model
innovation
Transformation
Demise
32 © 2012 InfoTrends www.infotrends.com
InfoTrends’ Opinion
• The universal delivery needs of consumers have changed
− The USPS and its regulating bodies must appreciate and respond to those changes or recognize a reduced relevance to consumers
• Continue to explore and embrace digital solutions
− Following an operational-efficiency path alone will result in lower consumer satisfaction and accelerate a transition to alternative media
• Consider opportunities in supporting digital mailbox services
− Whether it is an eMailbox, a .post initiative, a white-labeled solution, or providing a component of the identity and authentication services, the USPS should play a more active role in this space