4/26/2014

1

Risk assessment and mitigation in Heritage Projects

Dima Cook

OAA Conference Montreal 2014

Outline1. What is risk2. Identifying, Classifying, Assessing, Planning, Monitoring3. Risk in a Heritage Context

1. Project organizational structure2. Research3. Surveys4. Investigations and materials testing5. Mock‐ups6. Material procurement and sourcing 7. Pre‐qualifications and contracting 8. Protection and monitoring measures9. Training 10. Scheduling 

4. Conclusion

Learning Objectives

1. To identify potential risks on heritage projects

2. To analyze and categorize these risks

3. To evaluation the potential mitigation measures

4. To track the identified risks and mitigations measures as the project evolves

4/26/2014

2

Introduction

http://accommodationsbc.com/festivals/haunted‐houses/

Introduction 

Introduction 

4/26/2014

3

Introduction 

What is Risk

Risk = Probability of an event * Impact on objectives

Objectives

Time

Money 

Quality

Scope

QualityMoney

ScopeTime

What is Risk

Risk Management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

Wikipedia

4/26/2014

4

Identifying

[…] as we know, there are known knowns; there are things that we know that we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don't know we don't know.

Donald Rumsfeld

Classifying Risk

Types – regulation, constraints (workers, supplies),  practices, permits, approvals…

Time, Cost, Quality, Scope

Assessing Risk

Probability vs. Impact

Known risks – risk response – action to reduce likelihood of occurrence or the gravity of the impact.

Unknown risks –not identified – cannot be managed proactively 

4/26/2014

5

Assessing Risk

Risk appetite – amount of uncertainty that an organization can accept

Risk tolerance – amount of impact the organization can accept

Risk reserve – amounts put side to address the risk

Planning for Risk

Low Impact High Impact

Low Probability Accept Transfer

High Probability Mitigate Avoid

Each require different levels of Monitoring and Management.  

Planning for Risk

Cool Risk – Michael Mittag 

Transferring Risk

4/26/2014

6

Planning for Risk

quviant.com

Mitigating Risk

Monitoring Risk

Validation of the assumptions and/or data were used to evaluate risks:  

‐ Availability of trades & materials

‐ Other projects that occur at the same time

‐ Market pricing

‐ Legislative changes

Heritage Projects

Additional challenges:

– Different objectives

– Long view – Stewardship

– Oversight – Approvals and permits 

– Tolerance for risk

– Existing Conditions

– High profile, additional scrutiny

4/26/2014

7

Heritage Projects

Parks Canada’s 

Standards and Guidelines for the Conservation of Heritage Places in Canada

Puts the building at the table as a stakeholder

Heritage Projects

Cost    Scope creep, sole sourcing, rare and specialized trades, more upfront costs

Schedule Unforeseen conditions, investigations and testing

Quality Heritage projects generally have little tolerance for Quality risk

Scope Extent and type of interventions, scope definition

Heritage Projects

Step 1:  Understanding

1. Research

2. Surveys

3. Investigations

4. Materials Testing

5. Mock‐ups

4/26/2014

8

Heritage Projects

Step 2: Planning

1. Tendering Structure

1. Pre‐qualifications

2. Trade availability

2. Procurement and Sourcing

Step 3: Implementation and Monitoring

1. Training

2. Protection

3. Scheduling

Project organizational structure

Common objectives

Communications

Contacting Options

‐ Unit pricing

‐ Pre‐purchasing

‐ Pre‐qualifications of GC and subtrades

Research

Research is Creating new Knowledge

‐ Neil Armstrong

4/26/2014

9

Research

Historic Structures Report

– History of the building in context

– Heritage Values as expressed by the Character‐defining Elements

– Building Condition Assessment, including previous repairs and maintenance

Understanding of the building to develop the appropriate interventions

Research                  Original Specifications

Research  Original Drawings

4/26/2014

10

Research  Original Drawings

Research  Historic Photographs

Research                    Historic Photographs

4/26/2014

11

Research                    Historic Photographs

Research                    Historic Photographs

Detroit Train Station, New

 York Tim

es

Research                    Historic Photographs

Norm

an M

cGrath, N

ew York<s Pennsylvania Stations

4/26/2014

12

Research           Catalogues & Pattern Books

Fenestra  Steel Window Catalogue

Research           Catalogues & Pattern Books

Fenestra  Steel Window Catalogue

Research      Past Maintenance and Changes

Understanding alterations to the building:

‐ Changes to the interiors – what traces may be left behind, and what is gone

‐ Repointing and cleaning 

‐ Quality of maintenance

‐ Differed maintenance

4/26/2014

13

Research  Other sources

Quick Silver (1976)

Investigations

Surveys and Condition Assessment

Assessment in situ

– Exploratory openings

– Assembly testing

Testing of components

– Existing materials – stone, mortars, metals, wood

– Proposed materials  (sourcing)

Evaluation of proposed assemblies

– Mock‐ups

Investigations    Surveys

4/26/2014

14

Investigations          Exploratory Openings

Investigations          Exploratory Openings

Investigations          Exploratory Openings

4/26/2014

15

Investigations          Exploratory Openings

Investigations                Assembly Testing

Investigations                Assembly Testing

4/26/2014

16

Investigations                Assembly Testing

Investigations                Assembly Testing

Investigations    Assembly Testing

4/26/2014

17

Investigations                 Material Testing

Why testing is important

1. Determines what the materials are and how they behave.

2. Provides information to be able to find and compare it to available materials.

3. Close matches are needed so that the materials continue to work and age in a compatible manner.

Investigations                   Mortar Testing

Testing include porosity, initial rate of absorption, moisture vapour transmission rates, effects of the introduction of pigment, curing conditions, aging and frost durability.  The new mortars will also need to be matched to the original in colour and aggregate grading. 

In Ontario – there is also often a lead in mortar

Investigations                   Mortar Testing

4/26/2014

18

Investigations                   Mortar Testing

Investigations                   Mortar Testing

Investigations                   Mortar Testing

4/26/2014

19

Investigations                 Masonry Testing

Investigations                   Other Testing

Paint – type and colours, decorative patterns, glazes – paint sampling and paint windows

Metal – alloys and finishes (patinas, plating)

Wood – species, cut, finish 

Terrazzo – composition of matrix, aggregate size and type

Plaster – Composition, moulding, substrate

Mock‐ups                           Preconstruction

Evaluate the most appropriate interventions for the conservation of the building materials and assemblies

– Products

– Procedures and methodology

This report, by its very length, defends itself against the risk of being read.

Winston Churchill

4/26/2014

20

Mock‐ups                      Cleaning Products

Mock‐ups                      Cleaning Products

Mock‐ups                      Cleaning Products

4/26/2014

21

Mock‐ups Cleaning Products

Mock‐ups Cleaning Products

Material procurement | Sourcing

Risk to cost – sole sourcing, narrow range requiring a narrower range

Risk to quality – material needs to match existing

Risk to schedule – long lead times that need to be accounted for 

4/26/2014

22

Sourcing

Original quarries no longer in operation, or the stones being quarried there are of different quality.

Sourcing

Sourcing

4/26/2014

23

Procurement

Pre‐purchase blocks to ensure they are compatible and of the same quality – multi‐year project, arrange for storage

Given that many quarries are opened seasonally, this sourcing and selection exercise may have to be completed well in advance of construction.

Seasoning of blocks – evaporation of trapped moisture

Procurement

Procurement

4/26/2014

24

Procurement

Procurement

Report on the building and ornamental stones of Canada, vol.3  

Procurement

4/26/2014

25

Procurement

Contracting options

Pre‐qualifications of GC and trades:

– Starting early in the process – time consuming

–Rarity of qualified trades – understanding of traditional building techniques

–Additional constraint if unionized labour is required

Contingencies and allowances

Training 

Site orientation:

‐ Safety training

‐ Heritage awareness training:‐ What is the heritage fabric

‐ Value of original material

‐ What to do when heritage materials are discovered

‐ Matching trade and material

‐ Protection of existing fabric and other trade’s work

4/26/2014

26

Construction Mock‐ups 

To validate:

‐ Skill of individual tradesmen

‐ Materials 

‐ Methodology

‐ Sequence of work

‐ Site conditions during construction

Protection | Monitoring measures

An once of prevention….

The building is often at greatest risk during the construction project:

– Damage from demolition work

– Damage for construction work

– Risk of fire

– Loss of material

– Theft

– Inappropriate repairs or work

Protection | Monitoring measures

Protection of existing fabric – removal, on‐site protection

Monitoring of work – vibration monitors, temperature and humidity sensors, presence on site while critical work is being done

Monitoring of trades ‐ appropriate and qualified trade doing the work

4/26/2014

27

SchedulingSequence of work 

Duration of work

Availability of qualified trades

Availability of materials

Weather – winter conditions

Stakeholder and user requirements – occupied building

Risk Monitoring

Need to revalidate the decisions made:

‐ Changes to legislation, permitting, codes

‐ Changes to supply of material

‐ New products or discontinued products

‐ Changes to budget, schedule, scope

‐ Changes to staff, trades

Conclusion

Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes.

OSCAR WILDE, Lady Windermere's Fan