direc tv group the directv group, inc. at merrill lynch media fall preview
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Mike PalkovicCFO, DIRECTV
Merrill Lynch Media & Entertainment Conference
September 17th 2007
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Cautionary StatementThis presentation may include or incorporate by reference certain statements that we believe are, or may be considered to be, “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of various provisions of the Securities Act of 1933 and of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These forward-looking statements generally can be identified by use of statements that include phrases such as “believe,” “expect,”“estimate,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “foresee,” “project” or other similar words or phrases. Similarly, statements that describe our objectives, plans or goals also are forward-looking statements. All of these forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or from those expressed or implied by the relevant forward-looking statement. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: economic conditions; product demand and market acceptance; ability to simplify aspects of our business model; improve customer service; create new and desirable programming content and interactive features; achieve anticipated economies of scale; government action; local political or economic developments in or affecting countries where we have operations, including political, economic and social uncertainties in many Latin American countries in which DTVLA operates; foreign currency exchange rates; competition; the outcome of legal proceedings; ability to achieve cost reductions; ability to renew programming contracts under favorable terms; technological risk; limitations on access to distribution channels; the success and timeliness of satellite launches; in-orbit performance of satellites, including technical anomalies; loss of uninsured satellites; theft of satellite programming signals; and our ability to access capital to maintain our financial flexibility; and we may face other risks described from time to time in periodic reports filed by us with the SEC.
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Non-GAAP FinancialsThis presentation includes financial measures that are not determined in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America, or GAAP, such as Operating Profit before Depreciation and Amortization, Free Cash Flow, Pre-SAC margin and Cash Flow before Interest and Taxes. These financial measures should be used in conjunction with other GAAP financial measures and are not presented as an alternative measure of operating results, as determined in accordance with GAAP. DIRECTV management uses these measures to evaluate the profitability of DIRECTV U.S.’ subscriber base for the purpose of allocating resources to discretionary activities such as adding new subscribers, upgrading and retaining existing subscribers and for capital expenditures. A reconciliation of these measures to the nearest GAAP measure is posted on our website.
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Solid Year-to-Date Results
(2)%$651M$661MCash Flow Before Interestand Taxes
(1) basis pt.1.51%1.52%Monthly Churn
+3%$677$656SAC
+6%
+27%
+12%
Change
$74.96$70.73ARPU
$1.93B$1.52BOperating Profit BeforeDepreciation & Amortization
$7.27B$6.51BRevenue
YTD June 2007
YTD June 2006
DIRECTV U.S.
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Strong Subscriber Growth
5%
10%
15%
20%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Cable ramps-upVideo-on-Demand
Cable ramps-up Broadband
Cable ramps-upHigh Definition
Cable ramps-up VoIP
DIRECTV Share of U.S Industry Gross Adds YTD
2007FY
2006
(50)K160KCable (40)(40)Mediacom10100Cablevision
(10)(70)Charter2040Cox
(10)50Time Warner(20)80Comcast
363K820KDIRECTV
Net Subscriber Growth
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Increasing Sales of HD and DVR Services
Year End 2005
Year End 2007E
Year End 2006
Year End 2008E
Advanced Services
Basic Services
DIRECTV U.S. SubscriberPenetration
7
1.70%
1.60%
Reducing Monthly Churn
Key Factors• Higher HD/DVR Sales
• Tighter Credit Policies
• Improved Customer Service
& Set-Top Box Performance
• New Programming/Services
2005 2006 2007E
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Continued Strong ARPU Growth
6.0% YTD ARPU Increase
Price Increase(~4%)
HD/DVR Fees(~1%)
Lease Fees
Ad Sales
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Stabilizing SAC
$0
$500
Q1 '06 Q1 '07 Q1 '08EHD-DVR HD
$642 $642
Hardware
Installation
Commission/ Other
Marketing
2005 2006 2007EIncreasing HD/DVR Sales Are Mostly Offset By Significant Box Cost Reductions
2005 2006 2007E
14%
27%
HD/DVR Sales(% of Gross Adds)
Box Costs
Note: Subscriber Acquisition Costs (SAC) Include Capitalized Set-Top Box Costs
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Managing Upgrade/Retention Costs
$1.1B$1.3B
Annual Cost/Sub*HD/DVRs $23 $37 $48All Other $52 $44 $38Total $75 $81 $86
HD/DVRs
Other
2005 2006 2007E
9% 9%Upgrade/Retention Costs as a % of Revenue*
MPEG-4Swaps
9%
* Excludes MPEG-4 HD swap costs of $75M in 2006 and approximately $200M in 2007Note: All Upgrade/Retention Costs Include Capitalized Set-Top Box Costs
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DIRECTV U.S. Capital Expenditures
$.7B $.7B
Expect Significant Reduction in Satellite/MaintenanceCapEx After Launch of D11/D12
*Lease program began in March 2006
2005 2006 2007EAdditional CapExSet-Top Boxes* 0 $1.1B
MaintenanceSatellites
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2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
12%
2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
62% 44%
U.S. High-Definition TV Forecast
13M
42M
32M
21M
51M
% of U.S. TV Homes
Homes with HD Televisions Homes with HD Service
25%
57%49%
36%
37%
28%
19%
% of U.S. TV Homes
Source: Compilation of 3rd party research, company estimates
28M
66M
55M
40M
72M
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HD Channel Launch
Today: ~10 Channels
Year end 2007:Up to 100 Channels
1st Half 2008:Up to 150 Channels
Subscribers can also receive:
More ChannelAnnouncements
To Come
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Basic AdvancedBasic Advanced
Advanced Services DriveHigher Returns
1x
2006 After-Tax IRRs
25%
54%
6x
2006 After-Tax Relative NPVs
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Broadband Partnerships
44 Markets Mostly in N.E.DSLVerizon
42 Markets Mostly in S.E.DSLAT&T/BellSouth
38 Markets Mostly in Central U.S.DSLQwest
Anaheim, Philadelphia, New OrleansWi-FiEarthlink
Dallas/Ft. WorthBPLCurrent
51 Markets Throughout the U.S.Wi-MaxClearwire
Continental U.S.SatelliteWildBlue
NationalDSLEarthlink
Coverage TodayTechnologyPartner
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DIRECTV Latin America Overview
Sky Mexico (DIRECTV= 41%; Televisa=59%)
• 22M TV HHs• 27% Pay TV Penetration• 1.5M Sky Subscribers• $42 ARPU; 1.3% Monthly Churn
Sky Brazil(DIRECTV=74%; Globo=26%)
• 50M TV HHs• 9% Pay TV Penetration• 1.4M Sky Subscribers• $55 ARPU; 1.3% Monthly Churn
PanAmericana(DIRECTV=100%)
• 34M TV HHs• 28% Pay TV Penetration• 1.5M DIRECTV Subscribers• $43 ARPU; 1.4% Monthly Churn
Region-Wide Revenues of $2.4B and 4.5M Subscribers
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DIRECTV Latin America
40016512Cash Flow before Interest & Taxes ($M)
600350244Operating Profit Before D&A ($M)
2,0001,6001,013Revenue ($M)
4,0003,1002,711Subscribers (K)
2009E2007E2006DLA Consolidated
18062Cash Flow before Interest & Taxes ($M)
250153Operating Profit Before D&A ($M)
900417Revenue ($M)
1,4871,332Subscribers (K)
2007E2006Sky Brazil
A Great Opportunity to Unlock Value
3047Cash Flow before Interest & Taxes ($M)
135101Operating Profit Before D&A ($M)
720569Revenue ($M)
1,5601,286Subscribers (K)
2007E2006PanAmericana
Note: DIRECTV owns 100% of PanAmerica and 74% of Sky Brazil. DIRECTV alsoowns 41% of Sky Mexico, which is not consolidated.
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Strong Balance Sheet• $1.4.B net debt position as of 2Q 2007:
Total Debt $3.4BCash and Short Term Inv. $2.0BNet Debt $1.4B
• As of August 9, 2007, we repurchased approximately 228M shares for $4.0B – New stock buyback program authorized for an
additional $1B in August, 2007
• Current credit rating provides significant borrowing capacity
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Summary
• Leading digital multichannel TV service provider– 100% digital platform– Unique and exclusive programming– New products/services expected to further differentiate
• Strong revenue, OPBD&A and subscriber growth– Increasing margins due to cost controls and operating leverage
• Significant upside potential at DIRECTV Latin America
• Strong balance sheet with substantial liquidity
DIRECTV is poised for significant cash flow growth
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Non-GAAP Financial Reconciliation Schedules
2006 2007
Operating Profit Before Depreciation and Amortization $ 1,522 $ 1,931
Subtract: Depreciation and amortization expense 385 643
Operating Profit $ 1,137 $ 1,288
2006 2007
Cash Flow before Interest and Taxes $ 661 $ 651 Adjustments: Cash paid for interest (108) $ (104) Interest income 32 $ 44 Income taxes refunded (paid) (312) $ (376)Subtotal - Free Cash Flow 273 215 Add Cash Paid For: Property and equipment 219 $ 322 Subscriber leased equipment - subscriber acquisitions 199 $ 359 Subscriber leased equipment - upgrade and retention 140 $ 382 Satellites 105 $ 112 Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities $ 936 $ 1,390
(Dollars in Millions)
Six Months EndedJune 30,
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities
DIRECTV Holdings LLC (U.S.)Reconciliation of Operating Profit Before Depreciation and Amortization to Operating Profit
Six Months EndedJune 30,
(Dollars in Millions)
Reconciliation of Cash Flow before Interest and Taxes and Free Cash Flow to DIRECTV Holdings LLC (U.S.)