Direct and Indirect Direct and Indirect Causes of DeforestationCauses of Deforestation

Daniel MurdiyarsoCIFOR

Seminar on Climate Change, Agriculture and TradeBogor, 12 May 2008

OutlineOutline

• Introduction• Decreasing forest cover• Causes of deforestation• Challenges for biofuels development• Conclusions

• Introduction• Decreasing forest cover• Causes of deforestation• Challenges for biofuels development• Conclusions

0% 100%

tree cover threshold

Global forest cover is steadily decresing

Courtesy: Matt Hansen, S. Dakota State Univ.

• Total emissions p.a.: 7.2 GtC (27 Gt CO2)Fossil fuels: 5.6 GtC (21 Gt CO2) LUCF: 1.6 GtC (6 Gt CO2)

• Deforestation contributes: 20% • Forest area: 1.3 Bha • Deforestation rate: 11 Mha/y (1%/y)• Deforestation contributes: 0.25%/y to soybeans

6%/y to oil palm

• Total emissions p.a.: 7.2 GtC (27 Gt CO2)Fossil fuels: 5.6 GtC (21 Gt CO2) LUCF: 1.6 GtC (6 Gt CO2)

• Deforestation contributes: 20% • Forest area: 1.3 Bha • Deforestation rate: 11 Mha/y (1%/y)• Deforestation contributes: 0.25%/y to soybeans

6%/y to oil palm

Some numbersSome numbers

C-emissions from LUC in the tropics (million tons)

C-emissions from LUC in the tropics (million tons)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

18501865

18801895

19101925

19401955

19701985

2000

South and Southeast Asia

South and Central America

Sub-Saharan Africa

Source:. Houghton (2004)

Deforestation rates in IndonesiaDeforestation rates in IndonesiaImage and

DateForest cover

Deforestation rate (Mha/yr)

Reference

LANDSAT1997

95,843,088 1.7 Holmes (1999)

LANDSAT1998

95,628,800 1.8 WRI-FWI-GFW (1999)

SPOT vegetation2000

103,793,886 1.2 JRC/EU (2000)

Land-based emissionsLand-based emissions

(1,000)

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

United States China Indonesia Brazil Russia

MtCO2e

Agriculture Forestry

Source: PEACE (2007)

Peatland drainage and fires

Subsidence = = Subsidence

Water table

Drainage canal

CO2 emissions

Evapotranspiration

Evaporation

Fire Fire

Fire

Oxidation +Compaction

Oxidation +Compaction

∪<><

<><

<><

When enough is enoughWhen enough is enough

24% of deforestation29% of deforestation

17% of deforestation

24% of deforestation29% of deforestation

17% of deforestation

Source: http://www.panda.org/news_facts/newsroom/index.cfm?uNewsID=125741

Planned deforestationPlanned deforestation• Logging has played an

important role in regional economy

• Ministerial Decree 1983

• Involve ca. 30 Mha tropical forests

• Large tropical forests have been converted to cash and estate crops (timber, pulpwood and oil-palm plantations)

The development of oil-palm plantations in Indonesia(x 1000 ha)

The development of oil-palm plantations in Indonesia(x 1000 ha)

Island 1985 1998 New Outstanding

Kalimantan 0 563 563 4,760Sumatra 806 2,240 1,435 9,395Sulawesi 12 101 89 665Papua 23 31 8 590Maluku 0 0 0 236Others 2 22 20 1,777

Total 843 2,957 2,115 17,423

Source: World Bank, 1999

Biofuels development Biofuels development • Is it really green or climate neutral?• Oil palm plantations often result in forest

conversions (including peatlands) and thus increase emissions

• Can we avoid deforestation while promoting biofuels?

• Is it really green or climate neutral?• Oil palm plantations often result in forest

conversions (including peatlands) and thus increase emissions

• Can we avoid deforestation while promoting biofuels?

Net effect on climate changeNet effect on climate change

(Cf - Cop)Compensation point = --------------------------------------------------------------------

(12/44) * (CO2eq,min-die - (fcal * CO2eq,bio-die-a)) * YLD

Danielsen et al., Forthcoming

Causes of deforestationCauses of deforestation

Direct causes• Agricultural

expansions• Wood extraction/

logging• Infrastructure

development

(Geist and Lambin, 2002)

Indirect/underlying causes• Economic factors• Political factors • Technological factors• Cultural factors• Demographic factors

(Kaimowitz and Angelsen, 1997)

Unsustainable wood extractionUnsustainable wood extraction• Poor logging practices in

“legal” concessions • Illegal logging• Debris left behind fuels

forest fires

• Poor logging practices in “legal” concessions

• Illegal logging• Debris left behind fuels

forest fires

Infrastructure developmentInfrastructure development

• Road construction• Provides access for timber extraction,

conversion, and settlement

• Road construction• Provides access for timber extraction,

conversion, and settlement

Economic: Market failuresEconomic: Market failures• Commodity prices continue to rise• Carbon, biodiversity, water and other ecosystem

services remain underpriced

• Commodity prices continue to rise• Carbon, biodiversity, water and other ecosystem

services remain underpriced

Source: Roberts (2007)

Political: Governance failuresPolitical: Governance failures• Unclear property rights• Overlapping jurisdictions • Non-transparent decision-making• Weak law enforcement and judicial systems

• Unclear property rights• Overlapping jurisdictions • Non-transparent decision-making• Weak law enforcement and judicial systems

Technological: Misguided policiesTechnological: Misguided policies• Structural overcapacity in pulp and

paper sector• Insufficient fiber supply from

plantations• World demand on pulp and paper

• Structural overcapacity in pulp and paper sector

• Insufficient fiber supply from plantations

• World demand on pulp and paper

Source: Wright, 2004

China• 2002: 13.5 Mt y-1

• 2005: 25.1 Mt y-1

• Approved further 10.5 Mt y-1

Challenges for biofuelsChallenges for biofuels• The EU target for biofuels in the transport

sector is 5.7 percent by 2010 and 10 percent by 2020

• To what extent is biofuels development leading to the loss of forests and associated ES, such as water and bioD?

• Under what circumstances can the transition from fossil fuels to biofuels be consistent with broader SD objectives, incl. poverty reduction?

• How will biofuel crops displace domestic food production and affect food prices?

• Strong policies and standards/ certification procedures are needed

• The EU target for biofuels in the transport sector is 5.7 percent by 2010 and 10 percent by 2020

• To what extent is biofuels development leading to the loss of forests and associated ES, such as water and bioD?

• Under what circumstances can the transition from fossil fuels to biofuels be consistent with broader SD objectives, incl. poverty reduction?

• How will biofuel crops displace domestic food production and affect food prices?

• Strong policies and standards/ certification procedures are needed

Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

• There is a clear linkages between deforestation and world’s demands of fiber, food, and fuel

• Understanding the underlying or indirect causes of deforestation is crucial to address REDD and climate change

• Most deforestation is driven from outside forestry sector (e.g. palm-oil and pulp & paper)

• Land-use policies and spatial planning should consider carbon-rich ecosystems (e.g. peatlands)

• There is a clear linkages between deforestation and world’s demands of fiber, food, and fuel

• Understanding the underlying or indirect causes of deforestation is crucial to address REDD and climate change

• Most deforestation is driven from outside forestry sector (e.g. palm-oil and pulp & paper)

• Land-use policies and spatial planning should consider carbon-rich ecosystems (e.g. peatlands)