direct factsheet oct 12.pdf

7/30/2019 DIRECT FACTSHEET OCT 12.pdf

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MANAGERS MONTHLY COMMENTARY OCTOBER 2012

INVESTMENT MANAGERS:

Patrick Toes

Investment Director with over 20 years

experience in fund management.Previously a member of Rensburg

Sheppards Asset Allocation and Fund

Selection Committees for over 9 years.

David CowellChief Executive, possessing over 40

years experience in financial services,

with over 25 years being investmentmanagement focussed.

"Despicable trickery at elections; under-handedtampering with public officers, and cowardly attacksupon opponents, with scurrilous newspapers forshields, and hired pens for daggers"Charles Dickens (American Notes) commenting on

Washington DC in 1842.

The US presidential election campaign is over andwhilst Obama may have thought Dickens commentswere behind him, unfortunately he may well haveanother four years to come; more of that later. Thismonths commentary is focussed on the USinvestment outlook and to a lesser degree Europe &UK. We plan to look at Asia and Emerging Markets in

OBAMAS SECOND TERM

Despite Abraham Lincolns famous comment A housedivided against itself cannot stand, we expect moreconflict with Republicans in Congress thus weakgovernment and reliance on QE as a policy tool. Thefiscal cliff should be avoided but we arent cate orical in

We are particularly circumspect about growth in Europebeing better than the States over the next couple ofyears so we are disinclined to believe EZ valuationsbased on this premise. We expect that EZ corporates willbe mired in weaker growth for a substantial time and ourpreference is towards the UK on valuation and lowermacro risk.

SALES:

Julie Jones

Julie has over 20 years experience ofworking in investment sales andmarketing, previously as Head of UK

Retail Sales for BNY Mellon (Newton

Investment Management).

For further information call :

0113 274 7700Email : [email protected]

Or visit us at :

www.myddletoncroft.co.uk

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

our next edition.

We will start with a briefing on their 3rd quarterreporting season, which at an aggregate level sawS&P 500 earnings fall 1.2% yoy. S&P 500 earningsgrowth for the 3rd quarter as recent as July & Aprilexpected a rise of 3.1% and 5.3% respectively. Asyou may recall we have been saying that UScorporate earnings were too high and would have tofall. We continue to believe that and that earnings forboth Q4 and 2013 look too high. The US media likesto concentrate on earnings beats as an indication ofimprovement. However, we see these figures for whatthey are: management guiding analysts forecastslow so they can beat them. Far more interesting is thepercentage of companies beating expectationscompared to the previous quarter. That is falling.Moreover, in the current reporting season, only 36%of companies beat revenue expectations; muchworse than the long-run average of 62%. In addition,an unusually high percentage of companies (48 of the64) that have issued EPS guidance for Q4 2012,have guided lower.

VALUATION AND GROWTH

Below are two charts which look at MSCI indices forvarious regions as at the end of October, highlightingvaluation (PE ratio) and earnings growth. The USlooks more expensive than UK & European markets,

that view. We dont feel a grand solution for US deficits is

likely and those deficits will remain high fertile groundfor gold. However, the post election environment mayencourage the corporate sector to put their cash hoard(circa $1,700 billion) to work through M&A or throughcapital spend (IT). This may be the salvation for CEOs tocombat the dilemma of elevated margins which cannotgo on forever. Currently corporate profits are at a recordhigh as a percentage of GDP while wages are at arecord low. Our contention is that companies capableof growing revenue and/or maintaining profit

margins will become very sought-after assets and

likely to be valued well in excess of market

valuations. We consider our portfolio is correctly

weighted in this area.

POST PRANDIAL

Dr. Pippa Malmgren, a financial market advisor to theWhite House and member of the National EconomicCouncil 2001-2, recently observed that one of the mostinteresting trends in the world currently is thatmanufacturing is rapidly leaving China and moving backto the middle of the US. This is known as onshoring. Arecent report from PWC showed that it is now lessexpensive to produce steel in the US than in China andthat an array of industries have relocated and willrelocate manufacturing back to the US .The wagedifferential between the US and China is narrowing sofast and quality control in the US is so good. You can

Myddleton Croft Investment Managers, 1 Woodside Mews, Clayton Wood Close, Leeds, LS16 6QE

T: 0113 274 7700 F: 0113 274 7711 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.myddletoncroft.co.uk

Myddleton Croft Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Registered in England & Wales number 05782909. VAT number UK 889 241088.

Registered office: 11 Clifford Avenue, Ilkley, LS29 0AS.

This information has been approved for distribution

to professional investors only. The information in this

document is believed to be correct but cannot be

guaranteed. Past performance is not a guide to future

performance and may not be repeated. The value ofinvestments and the income from them may go

down as well as up and investors may not get back

the amounts originally invested. This material is not

intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or

sale of any security or any other action, without first

seeking advice as to the suitability of it for your

needs.

bearing in mind our earlier comments about growthexpectation. However, whilst we are cautious aboutgrowth and margins in the States, we have to

acknowledge that the economic backdrop is far betterthere than Europe or the UK.

build excellent facilities cheaply as American constructioncompanies have been waiting for something to do and sowill do it practically for free. An acceleration of

onshoring could be a big boon for the US economy. Weconfidently expect that our clients will benefit.


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MCIM Balanced Defensive Portfolio OCTOBER 2012

PERFORMANCE SINCE LAUNCHVESTMENT MANAGERS

atrick Toes


experience in fund management.

Previously a member of Rensburg


lection Committees for over 9 years.

avid CowellChief Executive, possessing over 40 years

experience in financial services, with over

25 years being investment management

focussed.

2012 PERFORMANCE

ALES:

ulie Jones

Julie has over 20 years experience ofworking in investment sales and

marketing, previously as Head of UK Retail

Sales for BNY Mellon (Newton Investment

anagement).

odel portfolios include cost of underlying

vestments and Myddleton Crofts annual

anagement fees, but not the charges for

stodian, dealing and settlement (equivalent to

atform charges)

or further information call :

113 274 7700mail : [email protected]

r visit us at :

ww.myddletoncroft.co.uk

PORTANT INFORMATION

s information has been approved for distribution to

ail and professional investors only. The information ins document is believed to be correct but cannot bearanteed. Past performance is not a guide to future





ASSET ALLOCATION

rformance and may not be repeated. The value ofestments and the income from them may go downwell as up and investors may not get back the

mounts originally invested. Before contemplating any

nsaction, you should consult your financial adviser.s material is not i ntended as an offer or s olicitationthe purchase or sale of any security or any other

ion, without first seeking advice as to the suitabilityt for your needs.ients portfolios may differ from model portfoliospendent on their specific objectives. 19%

19%

5%

7%

9%

25%

16%

UK Equities

International Equities

Alternatives

Commodities

UK Fixed Interest

Global Fixed Interest

Cash


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MCIM Balanced Cautious Portfolio OCTOBER 2012

PERFORMANCE SINCE LAUNCHNVESTMENT MANAGERS

atrick Toes





election Committees for over 9 years.

avid CowellChief Executive, possessing over 40


with over 25 years being investment

2012 PERFORMANCE

managemen ocusse .

ALES:

ulie Jones


marketing, previously as Head of UK


vestment Management).




ustodian, dealing and settlement (equivalent to

atform charges)



r visit us at :


MPORTANT INFORMATION

is information has been approved for distribution





ASSET ALLOCATION

.

formation in this document is believed to be correct

ut cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not auide to future performance and may not be

peated. The value of investments and the incomeom them may go down as well as up and investors

ay not get back the amounts originally invested.

fore contemplating any transaction, you should

nsult your financial adviser. This material is not

tended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase orle of any security or any other action, without first

eking advice as to the suitability of it for your needs.

lients portfolios may differ from model portfolios

ependent on their specific objectives.

21%

28%

18%

4%

6%

16%

7% UK Equities


Alternatives

Commodities

UK Fixed Interest


Cash


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MCIM Balanced Moderate Portfolio OCTOBER 2012


atrick Toes









2012 PERFORMANCE

.

ALES:

ulie Jones








ustodian, dealing and settlement (equivalent

platform charges)



r visit us at :



is information has been approved for distribution

retail and rofessional investors onl . The





ASSET ALLOCATION

.

formation in this document is believed to be

rrect but cannot be guaranteed. Past performance

not a guide to future performance and may not be

peated. The value of investments and the income

om them may go down as well as up and investors

ay not get back the amounts originally invested.

fore contemplating any transaction, you should

nsult your financial adviser. This material is not

tended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase

sale of any security or any other action, without

st seeking advice as to the suitability of it for your

eeds.



23%

32%

4%

5%

15%

5%

17%

UK Equities


Alternatives

Commodities

UK Fixed Interest


Cash


5/9

MCIM Balanced Progressive Portfolio OCTOBER 2012PERFORMANCE SINCE LAUNCHNVESTMENT MANAGERS

atrick Toes



Sheppards Asset Allocation and Fundelection Committees for over 9 years.

David CowellChief Executive, possessing over 40years experience in financial services,


***IMPORTANT NOTE : THE ADVENTUROUS PORTFOLIO HAS BEEN RENAMED THE PROGRESSIVE PORTFOLIO***

2012 PERFORMANCE

.

ALES:

ulie Jones


marketing, previously as Head of UKRetail Sales for BNY Mellon (Newton

nvestment Management).

Model portfolios include cost of underlyingnvestments and Myddleton Crofts annual

management fees, but not the charges for

ustodian, dealing and settlement (equivalent

o platform charges)



Or visit us at :



his information has been approved for distribution

o retail and professional investors only. The





nformation in this document is believed to be correct

ut cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a

uide to future performance and may not be

epeated. The value of investments and the income

om them may go down as well as up and investorsmay not get back the amounts originally invested.

efore contemplating any transaction, you should

onsult your financial adviser. This material is not

ntended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or

ale of any security or any other action, without first

eeking advice as to the suitability of it for your needs.

Clients portfolios may differ from model portfolios


ASSET ALLOCATION

25%

15%

4%

14%

4%

34%

4%

UK Equities


Alternatives

Commodities

UK Fixed Interest


Cash


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MCIM Balanced Adventurous Portfolio OCTOBER 2012


atrick Toes









***IMPORTANT NOTE: THE HIGHLY ADVENTUROUS PORTFOLIO HAS BEEN RENAMED THE ADVENTUROUS PORTFOLIO***

2012 PERFORMANCE

management ocusse .

ALES:

ulie Jones








ustodian, dealing and settlement (equivalent to

atform charges)



r visit us at :



is information has been approved for distribution to





ASSET ALLOCATION

a a n proe ss ona nves ors ony. e norma on

this document is believed to be correct but cannot

e guaranteed. Past performance is not a guide to

ture performance and may not be repeated. The

lue of investments and the income from them mayo down as well as up and investors may not get back

e amounts originally invested. Before

ntemplating any transaction, you should consult

ur financial adviser. This material is not intended as

offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any

curity or any other action, without first seeking

vice as to the suitability of it for your needs.



28%

36%

14%

3%

4%

13%

2% UK Equities


Alternatives

Commodities

UK Fixed Interest


Cash


7/9

MCIM Balanced Speculative Portfolio OCTOBER 2012


atrick Toes









2012 PERFORMANCE

management ocusse .

ALES:

ulie Jones









atform charges)



r visit us at :


PORTANT INFORMATION






ASSET ALLOCATION

a an pro essona nves ors ony. e norma on


guaranteed. Past performance is not a guide to


ue of investments and the income from them maydown as well as up and investors may not get back

e amounts originally invested. Before

ntemplating any transaction, you should consult

ur financial adviser. This material is not intended as

offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any

curity or any other action, without first seeking

vice as to the suitability of it for your needs.


pendent on their specific objectives. 35%

47%

7%

4% 4%1%

2%

UK Equities


Alternatives

Commodities

UK Fixed Interest


Cash


8/9

INVESTMENT MANAGERS

Patrick Toes





Selection Committees for over 9 years and former

chairman of those committees at BWD Rensburg, he

holds a MSC in Investment Analysis and is an

Associate Member of the Society of Investment

Professionals (ASIP).

David Cowell

MCIM Enhanced Income Portfolio OCTOBER 2012

PERFORMANCE SINCE JAN 2008*NVESTMENT MANAGERS

atrick Toes





avid CowellChief Executive, possessing over 40 years

experience in financial services, with over


Chief Executive, possessing over 40 years

experience in financial services, with over25 years being investment management

focussed. David formulates the macro

economic position and leads the investment process

across the portfolio range. He also has over 10 years

experience of business consultancy to small and

medium sized enterprises.

Model portfolios include cost of underlying

investments and Myddleton Crofts annual

management fees, but not the charges for custodian,

dealing and settlement (equivalent to platform

charges)


0113 274 7700Email : [email protected]

Or visit us at :


IMPORTANT INFORMATION

12 MONTH PERFORMANCE

ASSET ALLOCATION

The Enhanced Income Portfolio was launched at the beginning of 2011. It should be noted that the

performance before that date (presented above) is from the back-tested portfolio and is provided for

illustration purposes only.

ocusse .

ALES:

ulie Jones

Julie has over 20 years experience ofworking in investment sales andmarketing, previously as Head of UK

Retail Sales for BNY Mellon (Newtonvestment Management).

odel portfolios include cost of underlyingvestments and Myddleton Crofts annualanagement fees, but not the charges forstodian, dealing and settlement (equivalent toatform charges)



r visit us at :


PORTANT INFORMATION


tail and professional investors only. The informations n orma on a s een appro ve or s r u on

to retail and professional investors only. The

information in this document is believed to be correct

but cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not a

guide to future performance and may not berepeated. The value of investments and the income

from them may go down as well as up and investors

may not get back the amounts originally invested.

Before contemplating any transaction, you should

consult your financial adviser. This material is not

intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or

sale of any security or any other action, without first

seeking advice as to the suitability of it for your needs.

*Clients portfolios may differ from model portfolios

dependent on their specific objectives.

.








ue of investments and the income from them may

down as well as up and investors may not get backe amounts originally invested. Before contemplating

y transaction, you should consult your financial

viser. This material is not intended as an offer or

icitation for the purchase or sale of any security or

y other action, without first seeking advice as to the

itability of it for your needs.


pendent on their specific objectives.

5%5%

13%

5%

21%

46%

5% UK Equities


Alternatives

Commodities

UK Fixed Interest


Cash


9/9

MCIM Tactical Growth Portfolio OCTOBER 2012

PERFORMANCE SINCE JAN 2011*VESTMENT MANAGERS

trick Toes



Sheppards Asset Allocation and Fundection Committees for over 9 years.

avid CowellChief Executive, possessing over 40 yearsexperience in financial services, with over


2012 PERFORMANCE*

.

ALES:

lie Jones


marketing, previously as Head of UK RetailSales for BNY Mellon (Newton Investment

anagement).


vestments and Myddleton Crofts annualanagement fees, but not the charges for


atform charges)



r visit us at :


PORTANT INFORMATION

s information has been approved for distribution to

ail and professional investors only. The information



M ddl t C ft Ltd i th i d d l t d b th Fi i l S i A th it R i t d i E l d & W l b 05782909 VAT b UK 889 241088

ASSET ALLOCATION

t s ocument s e eve to e correct ut cannot


ure performance and may not be repeated. The

ue of investments and the income from them may

down as well as up and investors may not get backe amounts originally invested. Before contemplating

y transaction, you should consult your financial

viser. This material is not intended as an offer or

icitation for the purchase or sale of any security or

y other action, without first seeking advice as to the

tability of it for your needs.

ients portfolios may differ from model portfolios

pendent on their specific objectives.

s as een run as a mo e por o o s nce anuary

10%

35%

14%

11%

20%

10%

UK Equities


Alternatives

Commodities


Cash

direct factsheet oct 12.pdf

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