KEY OBSERVATIONS

The city consultations and literature review about the city reveal three major components to hazards in the city:

• Unplanned, unregulated urbanization and its consequences • Past climate variability and associated impacts • Disasters including floods, earthquakes and land slides

1. Unplanned /unregulated urbanization Urban growth in the city of Guwahati has been rapid, unplanned and organic. Rapid population growth, high migration rates and change in land use pattern of the city due to uncontrolled development activities is said to have done a lot of harm to the ecology and environment of the city. Illegal construction on hills has been one of the major causes for landslides. Uncontrolled urban development, particularly construction activities in and around the city is a major threat to this city on high seismic activity zone.

Population growth

Guwahati city has experienced considerable population growth in the past few decades although the decadal growth rate seems to have a declining trend over the years. The population of Guwahati city including the urban agglomeration has seen a decadal growth of 18.29% from 8, 18,809 in 2001 to 9, 68, 549 in 2011. 10% of the population in 2011 falls in the age group of 0 to 6 as compared to the national average of 13.12% and the state average of 14.47%.

Also, there is large floating population ranging to about 1.5-2 lacs in a week which also leads to load on infrastructure (Consultation with JICA). Besides the main population residing in the city, 10% is floating population which comes for daytime activities (Master Plan).

Migration • Migration has been a continuous phenomenon for Guwahati

city in the past few decades. Economic opportunities along with many social and political reasons govern migration of people to the city. Better urban services as compared to other rural areas such as education and medical facilities also are factors affecting immigration.

• In the past few years, with a rapid increase in employment opportunities due to growth of industries and other secondary & tertiary sectors, migration has taken place from different cities and villages. As in most cases these people are poor or from economically backward background and thus they tend to settle in illegal settlements and encroachments on hills or fragile lands. The recent increase in slum areas is an indication of increased migration in Guwahati (CDP, Guwahati).

Extent of Floods and Landslide Locations

Slopes and Landslide Locations

STRUCTURE

•Project Background •Guwahati – Case Study •Framework •Preliminary findings •Approach for designing Resilience Strategy •Institutional & Regulatory Analysis •The way forward…

ABOUT THE PROJECT

•Project: Preparation of Climate Resilience Strategy for Guwahati

•Part of the Rockefeller Foundation’s Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN) activities

•Duration: Till March 2013

•Goals: •Assess risk of the city to climate change impacts •Review the regulatory environment and •Suggest resilience measures and ways to integrate them into city planning in order to climate proof Guwahati

HOW TO CLIMATE PROOF CITIES

•Strengthening the adaptive capacity •Reducing the vulnerability of the urban system against climate change •Developing strategies and policy instruments for building resilience of our cities - Mainstreaming in policy and regulatory framework

–Sensitized planning and management practices – climate resilience on agenda –Long term resilience building – integrated approach to sector wise climate change adaptation –Ensuring flow of planned investments for climate resilience

CLIMATE RESILIENCE STRATEGY FOR GUWAHATI: SCOPE

•Risk Assessment: To assess risk of climate change impacts on the city and associated vulnerabilities •Institutional Analysis: Making an analytical assessment of the extent to which the existing legislations and guidelines applicable to urban planning process in India promote resilience building within urban centers •Resilience Strategy: To prepare resilience strategy for the city •Mainstreaming: Propose channels through which resilience options could be inbuilt in the existing legislative/policy framework

GUWAHATI

•Capital city of the State of Assam •Population – 11.9 lacs (UA area, 2011) •Location- 26010' N and 920 49' E •Undulating topography •Located on the banks of the Brahmaputra River, in Kamrup Metropolitan District •JnNURM city •Gateway to North-eastern India

FRAMEWORK FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

RISKS FACED BY GUWAHATI CITY

URBANIZATION IN GUWAHATI: 1999-2010

CHANGES IN LAND USE LAND COVER, 1999-2010

•Conversion of sparse built-up into dense built-up •Emergence of pockets of sparse built-up •Northern part of the river has emerged as a new built-up in year 2010. •Decrease in extent of dense forest and conversion of dense to sparse forest

IMPLICATIONS ON THE URBAN ECOSYSTEM

•Encroachment of significant natural features like natural wetlands, watershed areas and hills. •Hill cutting in fragile hilly areas which are not fit for development. •Unplanned and unregulated expansion of the city, especially on hills has added to the vulnerability of the city. 90% of the landslides occur in these areas

IMPLICATIONS ON VEGETATION HEALTH: 1999-2010

•Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI): indicator of vegetation health and captures the variation in vegetation •Vigor (vegetation health) has degraded over the study period. •Remnants of healthy vegetation have remained in the southern part of the Guwahati township.

MEANWHILE…

•Increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperature for Guwahati city •Decreasing trend seen in seasonal mean rainfall for monsoon months over Guwahati •Increase in extreme rainfall events especially in the last decade

Source: Regional Meteorological Centre, Guwahati

INCREASED INCIDENCE OF URBAN FLOODS…

KEY ELEMENTS - VULNERABILITY Inadequate an inefficient Urban Infrastructure and Services add on to the vulnerability of the city: - Water Supply - Drainage and Sewerage - Solid waste management - Transport - Health - Energy

Gaps and issues in the solid waste management sector

STORM WATER DRAINAGE – A CRITICAL ISSUE

Reasons for drainage problems and subsequent flooding and water logging •Uncontrolled development, deforestation and cutting of hills •Topographical pattern •Built up on the natural drainage pattern •Bils have been gradually encroached and are degrading due to unplanned, uncontrolled urban development; •Inadequate capacity of existing drainage system – siltation, solid waste

Gaps and issues in the drainage sector

VULNERABILITY OF COMMUNITIES: URBAN POOR

VULNERABILITY OF ASSETS: URBAN SERVICES INFRASTRUCTURE

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

Extreme events: •Urban Flooding •Land slides •District Disaster management Plan prepared by the KMD Emergency Operation Centre •DDMA has initiated the Integrated Urban Flood management Project in the city with support from ASDMA but it is in a very preliminary stage •Landslide risk mitigation project for Guwahati A multidisciplinary task force for proper implementation of action plan was also formulated.

•Pressure on health delivery system •City is prone to water/vector-borne diseases (Reported for Guwahati city under IDSP) •Inadequate health set-up •Influx of patients from hinterland •Medical response has been identified as one of the Emergency Support Functions (ESF-4) under the Kamrup Metropolitan District Disaster Management Plan and defines the functions of the ESF

FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIO FOR 2030S (A1B SCENARIO)

Regional model simulations at 25kmX25km resolution carried over the Kamrup district using PRECIS

•Projections of temperatures for the whole district shows an increasing trend for the future in 2030s as compared to the baseline period of 1970-2000. •The city of Guwahati shows an increase of about 1.2° in maximum and about 1.3° in minimum temperature. •Slight insignificant decreasing trend seen in percentage precipitation change