Disaster resilience and anticipation：data, methods, and models, and emerging adaptation strategies

Yoshihiro KIZAWA , Toshiyuki HASHIMOTO, JAPAN

Meeting of Senior Officials of the Carnegie Group countries + WB & UNIn Brussels, 6 December 2012

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Disasters in Japan

Typhoon

Heavy Rain

Heavy Snow

Tornado

Earthquake

Tsunami

Volcano

The ration on major natural disasters since 1900 (until 2010)

18% for Earthquakes and tsunamis (10 out of 55),9% for meteorological

disasters (5 out of 57)

Japan ranks No.5 in exposure to natural hazards, and No.35 in rank of suffering damage.

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Asia 37%

Asia 88%

Asia 59%

Asia 45%

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Risk Index of Natural DisasterWorld Risk Report 2011（UNU）

RankCountry Risk Index Rank Country Risk Index

1 Vanuatu 32.00 35 Japan 11.13

2 Tonga 29.08 71 India 7.68

3 Philippines 24.32 95 China 6.36

4 Solomon Islands 23.51 107 RSA 5.71

5 Guatemala 20.88 117 Italy 4.74

6 Bangladesh 17.45 133 USA 3.72

7 East Timor 17.45 138 UK 3.61

8 Costa Rica 16.74 139 Russia 3.56

9 Cambodia 16.58 150 Germany 2.96

10 El Salvador 16.49 155 France 2.76

159 Canada 2.57

Risk index = Exposure index X Vulnerability index

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Damage of Great East Japan EQDead 15,895 persons

Missing 3,021 persons

Evacuee 325,000 persons

Damage in Stock USD 211 billion

Damage of House 1,099,881 houses

Damage of Farm Land 24,477 ha

White Paper on Disaster Management 2012, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan5

Importance of Disaster Prevention and Reduction using Science & Technology

○Japan’s Science and Technology Basic Policy (2011-2015)

Reduction of disasters is important. The contributions of S & T are expected.

Japan’s Science and Technology Basic Policy promotes Prediction and estimation based on observationsR & D of disaster prevention and reduction.

○Limitation of disaster prevention by S & T and necessity of interdisciplinary collaboration

Recognition of limitation of S & T Cooperation among relevant organization are effective

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alive

dead

EvacuationBuilding

ShelterHouse

AssessedTsunami level

Actual level

CoastalBarrier

Group1: didn’t escape

Group2:escaped to

planned level

Group3:escaped to

higher level

neglected WarningLesson1: Education

is very important

Lesson2: Reasonableassessment is vital

Lesson3: Warning systemshould be improved

1st Warning level

Group1

Group2

Group3

relied Coastal Barrier

believed Quick Warning

believed pre-Assessment

behaved safety-first

Casualty analysis of the dead peopleand lessons learned from it

S&T can contribute

E can contribute

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Limitations of Infrastructures

Incomplete Superｰbank 864Km(98.8%) of 873km

The length of coast line with inadequate seismic resistance → 2,002km （36％） of 5544Km

The length of coast line lower than the predicted tsunami height → 812km（15％） of 5544Km

No earthquake resistance (Buildings of Nation) 3750 buildings (40%) of 9375

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400t Crane×2 unitsMain Pump Unit

ExperimentalBuilding

OperationBuilding

PreparationBuilding

Hydraulic Unit Building

Main Accumulator

Shaking Table

Tokyo

completed in 2005at Miki City, Hyogo

Largest in the world

Size: 20m x 15m

Load: 1200ton

3-dimensional

Horizontal VerticalMax. Accel. >900cm/s/s >1,500cm/s/s

Max. Vel. 200cm/s 70cm/s

Max. Displ. ±100cm ±50cm

Reconstruction to earthquake resistance building - E-Defense

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Example of an experiment

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Liquefaction Countermeasure

Earthquake Resistant Joint Pipes

Earthquake Resistant Joint Pipes keep flexibility for water pipe network without disconnection caused by liquefaction deformation. Joint can move within the allowable clearance. To reconstruct resilient infrastructure, earthquake-resistant joints are used.

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UｒEDAS(Urgent Earthquake Detection & Alarm System)

As for the technology of railway safety, we introduce Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System(UrEDAS). Just after 2:46p.m. when the Great East Japan earthquake occurred, UｒEDAS detected P-wave, then one second after the alarm was sent, the system started operating and Tohoku-Sinkansen was stopped to transmit electricity, started the emergency brake to slow down and stopped automatically. Thanks to the system, the Tohoku-Sinkansen didn’t run off the tracks and overturn even in spite of its operating time.

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0 100 200 300

南西諸島

400 500

km

防災科学技術研究所

F-net

Hi-net / KiK-net

K-NET

Broadband seismograph network（F-net）

Strong-motion seismograph networks （K-NET）

High-sensitivity seismograph network （Hi-net）

Seismic and volcanic observation networks (Hi-net, F-net, K-NET, KiK-net, and V-net)

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Kiban-Kyoshin Net（KiK-net）

Volcanic observation network (V-net)

■ NIED● F-net● Hi-net / KiK-net● K-NET▲ V-net

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Ocean bottom cabled network along Japan trench

N

It is expected more rapid and accurate warning of earthquake and

tsunami becomes possible

2012

20122013

2013

2013

2014

Pressure VesselSeismometer

Pressure Gauge

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30-year possibility of offshore and inland earthquakes

2011 Tohoku Eq.

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Difficulties and Limitations ofPrediction of Disasters

○Why scientists failed to forecast the giant earthquake?Preoccupied with a specific asperity model

○Lessons from the occurrence of the Great East Japan EQ The characteristics of slip along the plate boundary

○Limitations of earthquake forecasting researchLack of data

○Future challengeObservation and research on giant earthquake

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Forecasting of Extreme Weather

The earth simulator

The Earth Simulator is utilized in various fields of research including earth sciences for such tasks as global-warming projection and solid earth interior dynamics research.

X-band MP radars

･Utilize 2 types waves (Vertical and Parallel) ･Can measure amount of rainfall･don’t have to correct by using rain gauge・can update information of rainfall in short interval of time

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Conventional Radars

Tokyo Tokyo

MP-Radar

0 5km

2008/08/05 Local Heavy Rainfall Case

Accident occurred in the sewerage about 12:00JST

Nerima

Otemachi

Setagaya

Nerima

Otemachi

Setagaya

Zoshigaya Zoshigaya

500-m mesh, 5-min int.1-km mesh, 10-min int. 18

Frame Work of International Co-researches of Climate Change

GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems)

Disaster

Weather

Energy

Water

Climate

Agriculture

Eco-system

Health

Biodiversity

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Providing Damage Observation Data of the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster

Left is taken on March 14 and Right is February 23 by JAXA satellite "DAICHI"This is Northern area of Fukushima, and blue area of left photo is inundation area by Tsunami.

Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS)

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Kamaishi・Miracle

Importance of Education for Disaster Prevention

Stone Monument in Miyako City“Do not built houses below this point”

Movies about Kadonowaki elementary school in Ishinomaki City

Kamaishi city has been often hit by Tsunami so that they promote education for disaster prevention for a long time.Most of the approximately 3,000 students changed evacuation point and could escape more safety and higher land from preliminary evacuation area with a will of their own and it results in a 0.2% mortality rate.

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Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS)

—Partnering with developing countries for innovation—

International Joint Research

Research Institutions in Developing Countries

Research Institutions in Japan

ResearchPartnership

MOFA/JICA

MEXT/JST Collaboration

Technical CooperationR&DSupport

ODA

１．Enhancing Cooperation in Science & Technology 2. New Technology, New Knowledge3. Capacity Development4. Practical Utilization

Environment/EnergyBioresources

Natural Disaster PreventionInfectious Diseases Control

Research Period/Duration of Research: Funding split: Three to five (3-5) years JST: Approx. 36 million yen (0.45 million USD)Project Size: JICA: Approx. 60 million yen (0.75 million USD)Approx.100 million JPY (1.25 million USD) per pj/y 22