disaster risk management (ii): food...
TRANSCRIPT
Ching-Cheng Chang Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica
Dept of Agr Econ, National Taiwan University APEC Research Center for Typhoon and Society
Disaster Risk Management (II):
Food Security
1
Outlines
• Climate Risk o Monsoon o ENSO o Sea Level Rise (SLR)
• Implications for Food Security
• Adaptations o Options o Cases
• Conclusions
2
Background-1 • Natural hazards may well increase in both frequency and
intensity under projected climate change and their impacts
enhanced because of anthropogenic activities.
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database.
Background-2
• Agri-food system is prone to 2 types of climate risks:
o Climate change – Long-term shifts in mean values o Climate variability–
• Changes in temperature, wind fields, hydrological cycles, ... etc. at annual to decadal time scales
• May well increase both in frequency and intensity under projected climate change
• Induce secondary hazards which claim lives and incur large economic losses long after event passes.
• Impacts are enhanced because of anthropogenic activities
4
1. East-Asian Monsoon
• Observations since 1950s:
o Weakening of summer and winter monsoon
o Moving southward where both land and sea
surface temperature rise
• Examples o Thailand Flood, 2011 (684 death)
o Typhoon Sendong in southern Philippines,
2011 (>900 death, 70,000 families affected)
5
The 2-metre-high inundation has affected the Rangsit campus of Thammasat,
north of Bangkok.
The 2011 Thailand Flood
A United States Navy helicopter surveys flooded areas in the
outskirts of Bangkok.
Photos Source: Wikipedia website, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2011-10-24_Thammasat_University_Inundation_(006).jpg and
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Helicopter_survey_of_flooding_in_suburban_Greater_Bangkok,_22_October_2011.jpg ).
2011 Thailand Flood Monthly rainfall from Jan-Oct Flooding area
• 18-67 mm of rainfall above normal since March, 2011
• Mostly in N.E. and Central provinces
Data Source: Thai Meteorological Department
Photo Source: Esri, http://www.esri.com/services/disaster-response/floods/index.html, Oct 2011. 7
Source: United States Department of Agriculture, Rice Yearbook 2011.
Thailand is the largest exporter of rice
8
Export volume of Thai rice, Jan. 2010- Nov. 2011
1,303,448
696,180
718,111
661,439
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000exp
ort v
olu
me (to
n)
month
Source: Office of Agricultural Economics, Thailand, Agricultural Statistics,. http://www.oae.go.th/oae_report/export_import/import.php
9
World Price: 1997~2011, Monthly (5% broken milled white Thai nominal quote)
Source: International Monetary Fund 10
2. El Niñ o Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Risk
Enhance variability of precipitation and stream
flow
Lead to greater risk of droughts and floods
Examples:
1997-98 in Indonesia: caused substantial threat to
rural livelihood
2010-11 in Queensland: Flood
11
Schematic diagram of multi-scale interaction for heavy rainfall in Queensland during Dec. 2010
Reference
1. National Climate Centre, 2011. An extremely wet December leads to widespread flooding across eastern Australia. Special Climate Statement, 24.
2. Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology, http://www.bom.gov.au
3. Climate Prediction Center, National Oceanic and atmospheric administration, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
12
Queensland Flood
Consequences on Agro-Food System
Physical Damages
Crops/Animals
Rural infrastructure/Logistics
Raised global raw commodity price
Wheat : • Australian export 60%-70% of annual production
to overseas markets (52 countries)
• World wheat indicator price (US hard red winter) rose to USD380/ton on 9 February 2011.
• The highest since June 2008. 13
International Grains Council Export Prices (Weekly, Updated: 14 Feb 2011)
14
3. Sea Level Rise (SLR)
• Long-term threat to agriculture
• Recent Projections by 2100
o Annual:
• Raper and Braithwaite (2006) project SLR caused by melting glaciers and icecaps will fall between 0.046 and 0.051 m
• Meier et al. (2007) estimate an additional 0.1 to 0.25 m. o Cumulative
• Rahmstorf (2007) projects a cumulative SLR of 0.5 to 1.4 m.
• Dasgupta et al. (2009) projects 1 to 3 m of rise but indicates as much as 5 m is possible if unexpected rapid breakup of Greenland ice cover and West Antarctic ice sheet occurs.
15
Impacts on Agricultural Land
• Inundate 0.39% to 2.10% of global cropland • Occurs in ag land in SE Asia, E Asia, S Asia, SE US
Constitutes a threat to rice
0
5
10
15
20
25
Bangladesh
Brazil
Central A
meric
a
China
East A
frica
Egypt
India
Indonesia
Japan
Korea D
PR
Korea R
ep
Mya
nmar
Oth
er Asia
Pakista
n
Philippin
es
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietn
amUSA
South A
meric
a
West
Afri
ca
%
5 meter
4 meter
3 meter
2 meter
1 meter
Source: Dasgupta et al. (2009). 16
Implications on Food Security-How to Measure?
Economic Model with Adaptation Options
Food price, Production, GDP, Social welfare
General Circulation Model (GCM) Statistical Model (Historical Data)
IPCC Scenarios (SRES)
Crop Yield Response Model
-- To Estimate Climate and Non-Climate Impacts
Example on SLR: Study by Chen, Chang and McCarl (2012) on agriculture in Taiwan
• Methodology
o Dual effects of
• SLR on cropland use
• Global warming on crop yields
o Partial-equilibrium agricultural sector model
• Simulation Results
o For SLR up to 5 meters
• Lose 5% of total crop acreage and 16% of rice acreage
• Economic damage ranges: NT$0.8~o 4.1 billions
o Adaptation options (Criteria: welfare offset)
• Farm level: Technological change
• Market level: Free trade
18
Adaptations—What Are the Options?
• A survey of options by R Barichello & B Gilmour
“Moving Beyond Market Volatility towards Agri-food System Resilience”, presented at 2011 PECC Agri and Food Policy Forum, Dec 1-2, 2011, Taipei
1. Adapt to increased volatility
2. Add resilience by increasing income
• Farm level
• Supply Chain
• Market/Policy level
19
Production Volatility
Price Volatility
Production & Price Volatility
Options –A Tool Box
o Farm Level:
• Diversification, insurance
• Add value to move away from raw product
• Adopt agricultural research
o Supply Chain level:
• Add value by moving up value chain
• Improve food research
• Invest in better infrastructure
• New distribution methods (network v.s. hub and spoke)
o Policy/Market level:
• Hedging options, price pooling,
• Food reserves
• Insurance tools
• Information (monitoring, early warning) 20
Farm Level
• Diversification--oldest risk mgmt tool o During price spikes, many would stay in their
commodity, preferring to capitalize on the high returns o Can include off-farm activities
• Add value--shift to high-valued products o Shifting downstream stabilizes farm returns o Higher incomes also provide a within-family buffer
• Adopt research findings on o Improved varieties, o input applications o management procedures
21
Supply Chain Level
• Increase value-added o business strategy for increasing profits and reducing risks
• Food manufacturing research o find substitutes for more scarce, price-volatile inputs o find new formulations to reduce cost squeeze
• Invest in better infrastructure or new distribution methods o generate higher incomes o better able to accommodate price volatility
• Hedging and insurance tools o allow off-loading of price
22
Market/Policy Level
• Hedging, Price pooling: o averaging prices across time period or spatial sales to
stabilize price variability
• Safety Net policies o Can take form of crop insurance, revenue insurance o Compared to price support: more flexible, less
commodity-specific, not as trade distorting o Question:
• Lack of producer support leads to higher subsidy levels, making it more costly
• may not be an option for most developing countries
23
Market /Policy Level
• Food Reserves
o Emergency Reserves
• For humanitarian uses only
• Modest size, 5% current food aid flows
o Strategic Reserves
• International Coordinated grain reserves,
• Regional or Country level reserves
o Questions:
• What are the optimal stock levels?
• How to implement and finance?
• Transparent governance structure that can release stocks at times of market stress only 24
Case Studies
• Farm-Supply Chain Response
• Country-Regional Response
25
Case Study 1- DouNan Farmers’ Association (FA)
Yunlin County DouNan Town
• Total Population: 47,000 • FA members: 9,107 • safety labeling system demo in
2003.
26
Business Weekly Cover’s Story
Business Weekly • 15 young farmers constitutes
the farming team
• Each can earn 3 million NTD
(100,000 USD) per year
27
Satellite System-1
• Concept: FA responsible for marketing and planning.
Farmer’s
Association
Process
Storage
Package
Market
Super market
Export
farmer farmer
farmer farmer
Custom
farming team
Marketing
Information
Products
Planning
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Sales Group Farmers’ association (3 people)
Lease Land
Management Production Marketing
inform harvest
Manage Cultivate Sale
landlord
landlord
landlord
Domestic
Supermarkets
Foreign Market
1. Responsible for leasing farm land.
2. Monitoring crop growth
1. Till, fertilize, sow, harvest with mechanical power
2. Efficient soil conservation practices
1. Use cold chain to provide off-season products for better price
2. Direct marketing to reduce transaction costs
- Satellite System - 2
Tenant farmer Field Managers
(6 people)
Custom Farming Machinery operator (6 people)
29
Local Background
Potato
Others Beef
Sorghum
Rice
Cows: 380 heads
Value: NTD34,200,000
Area:150 ha
Value: NTD57,960,000
Area:35ha
Area:10ha
Value: NTD1,000,000 Area:450ha
Value: NTD162,000,000
Ist Crop 2nd. Crop
March-Jun Rice, Sorghum
July-Oct. Rice, Sorghum
Winter Crop
Nov.-Feb. Potato
30
DouNan FA’s Strategic Planning
Innovation need Investment in
o Hardware
1. Large Agricultural Machineries
2. Processing plant for post-harvest handling (washing, classifying, and storage) of tuber and root vegetables .
o Software
1. GAP and Produce Safety Labeling System
2. GIS Monitoring System
31
Reduce Agr Waste - Life Cycle Concept
Life Cycle
Recycle crop
and animal
wastes as
organic
fertilizer and
feed
Local feed and beef production to substitute import
1. Convert idled land into specialized production zone to reduce import
2. Convert rice production to upland crop to save water and prevent land subsidence
Organic
Fertilizer and
feed
Crop
Production
Iivestock
husbandry
32
Custom Farming Team in DouNan
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Tractors
Purchased from
the U.S.
Modified and
adjusted by
Farmer’s
Association
35
Carrot Seeding
Average
Labor:Acre = 1:1
36
Carrot Seeding
DouNan
Labor:Acre = 1:1
37
Potato Seeding
Average
Labor : Acre = 20-25:2
38
Potato Seeding
DouNan
Labor:Acre = 5:3
39
Pesticide spraying
Average
Labor:Acre = 5:5
40
Pesticide spraying
DouNan
Labor:Acre = 2:8
Machine purchased from Japan
41
Cultivation
Average
Labor:Acre = 1:0.7
42
Raising Soil
DouNan
Labor:Acre = 1:3
43
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Frozen Storage
• 50% of potato
harvested are
stored in freezer
waiting for better
prices
• Manager control
the whole system
on smart phone
or computer
45
RFID system
• All relevant data
of potato are
saved in a small
chip (for each
group of potato)
• It help manager
to understand
and control
inventory better
46
Carrot Washing Carrot Classification
• Process either carrot or potato
•Machine: purchased from New Zealand (for processing kiwi fruits)
•Agent: Korean company (also the provider of the electronic control panel)
47
Monitoring room
Packaging
Invest in field monitoring software -GIS
• Displaying and integrating the data at different levels.
• Directly perceived, easy to use
• Combing with GPS locational coordinates
Land Information
Crop Information
Plot Numbering
Information
48
GAP produce-safety labeling system
Know the position by
searching land section
and plot number.
Divide types of
crops by colors.
Carrots
Potatoes
49
Marketing Contract with Large Retailers
50
Case Study 2- Country-Regional Policy Response
51
Food Security in Taiwan-1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010
%
Year
Proportion of GDP from Agricultural Sector and Industrial Sector
Agri-sector Industrial Sector
• GDP share from agriculture is below 2.5% • Food self-sufficient ratio dropped to 32%
52
Food Security in Taiwan-2
• Small Scale farming Low Farm Income o Can not achieve economies of scale on small and
fragmented farms. o Per capita farm income is only 70% of non-farm.
< 1.0 ha 1.0-2.0 ha 2.0-3.0 ha 3.0-5.0 ha 5-10 ha 10 ha >
No of farms
562,415 117,884 32,849 18,511 6,885 1,672
% in total
76.0% 15.9% 4.4% 2.5% 0.9% 0.2%
53
Food Security in Taiwan -3
• Aging Farm Population: – Average age of farmers is 61. – 46% of farm population is above 55 yr old
Total 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 ~
Farm Population (1000 person) 533 9 43 91 142 158 89
% in total 100% 1.69% 8.07% 17.07% 26.64% 29.64% 16.70%
55 and above 46.34%
54
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Food Security in Taiwan -4
• Natural disasters are on the rise in the recent years
Landslide Flood
Case of BULOG
• Major STE in Indonesia, from 1970s to mid 1990s
• Government procurement price as a standard price to buy from farmer during the peak of harvest season
• procure about 7% of the total production
• Distribute rice at subsidized price to the poor family
• Conduct market intervention using available stock.
• Question: Mixed reputation
• partly for corruption
• partly for its market effects and costs
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57
Regional Issues- Rising Natural Disasters but Less Food Aids
World Food Program (WFP) reveals that the volume of global food aids deliveries has decreased in the past years, despite a growing need of emergency food aids.
Several of WFP’s projects could face a break in food supplies because of low funding or spiked food price led to food aid shortage.
58
“…the importance of social protection measures such as
safety nets and other policies that protect the most
vulnerable from shocks such as natural disasters.
In this context, we agreed to examine the feasibility of
establishing cooperative approaches to address emergency
food needs.”
2010 APEC Niigata Declaration on APEC Food Security
59
APEC Food Emergency Response Mechanism (AFERM)
To address a state where a member economy suffers from natural calamities and is unable to cope with its own food stocks
Taiwan proposal under the principle of voluntary contribution, collective action, risk-sharing and self-management.
60
AFERM Information
System
1. Data Collection & Analysis
2. Emergency Assessment
Network of Virtual Emergency Food Stocks 1. Earmarked 2. Self-managed 3. Fully-granted form
Collective Action; Mutual-assistance;
Risk-sharing;
AFERM Steering Committee
AFERM Secretariat
1. Decision-making & operation 2. Coordination with NGOs, donors, and recipients
Functional Concept of the AFERM
Operational Procedures
61
Request Recipient economies
AFERM Steering Committee
Donating Economies
Release
Deliver by humanitarian groups
DISASTER
AFERM Secretariat
Notify
Coordinate
63
• The SC hold an e-conference and check the AFERM information system to determine the amount of rice available in the nearest donating economy
• If necessary, trans-Pacific economies will also donate
64
• Humanitarian groups of the donating economy A ship
the food aids to the airport in city Y of economy X.
65
• A government agency of Economy X and a NGO
load the food aids into trucks and deliver to a
staging point for distribution.
Case of ASEAN Integrated Food Security Framework (AIFS)
Strategic Plan of Actions (agreed and approved)
1 Reserve: strengthen food security by establishing ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve
2 Trade: implementing the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement in food products
3 Information: reinforcing ASEAN Food Security Information System
4 Production enhancement: knowledge and technology, climate change adaptation
Source: RS Natawidjaja, “Rice Price Instability: Impact on Agrifood Chains with Indonesian Perspective”, presented at 2011 PECC Agricultural and Food Policy Forum, Dec 1-2, 2011, Taipei
Commitment
ASEAN 87,000 t
Japan 250,000 t
Korea 150,000 t
PRC 300,000 t
Total 787,000 t
EAERR Delivery (2004-)
Cambodia 434 t
Indonesia 286 t
Lao PDR 20 t
Myanmar 320t
Philippines 1,445 t
APTERR Earmarked
stock
Stockpile
APTERR: ASEAN+3 Emergency Rice Reserve
Source: RS Natawidjaja, “Rice Price Instability: Impact on Agrifood Chains with Indonesian Perspective”, presented at 2011 PECC Agricultural and Food Policy Forum, Dec 1-2, 2011, Taipei
Conclusions
• Great variety of options to make ag-food system more
resilient to climate risks
• Many components should included o Private actors as well as Public policy
o National effort or with International cooperation and
coordination
o Risk reducing/sharing as well as income/efficiency
enhancing measures
• Most policies require careful, critical appraisal
before being accepted
• Need analytical tools
• Need to collect information
How to deploy and use them adequately and effectively? 68
Future Research
Take into account uncertainties in
Scientific Info (Hazard, Exposure)
– Climatologically/meteorological dynamics – Climate simulation modeling – Downscaling method/local impact – Future development scenarios
Human Behavior (Vulnerability)
Decision-making process “Life is a chance”
Government Actions
• How costly they are • Decision-making process • Institutional failure
69
Q&A
70