disaster risk reduction challenges in the pacific: an ......global probabilistic tsunami hazard...
TRANSCRIPT
Disaster Risk Reduction challenges in the Pacific: An Australian perspective
Dr Andy BarnicoatChief, Community Safety & Earth Monitoring Division, Geoscience Australia
Outline
Overview of Geoscience Australia
Pacific sea level monitoring
Groundwater in Pacific
Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment of Pacific region
Global Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment
Shallow water from space
Volcanic monitoring (InSAR) in PNG
Indonesia InaSafe
Geoscience Australia• Federal government agency
• Located in Canberra
• 600 staff
• Budget 2015–16: $170m
Pacific Sea Level Monitoring ProjectProviding a link between land deformation and tide gauge data
GNSS Time SeriesPermanent GNSS station records a continuous time series
• 10+ years at most PSLMP sites
• Seismic events can be detected and modelled over time
• Seismic uplift can be modelled out of Tide Gauge observations, and validated by the local monitoring survey.
97% of islands assessed have Moderate to Higher vulnerability
Vulnerability to future low rainfall periods 2050 ( 2035-2064)
Pacific Island Groundwater & Future Climates
80% of islands assessed have Moderate to Moderate high vulnerability
Vulnerability to future sea-level rise 2050 (2035-2 064)
Pacific Island Groundwater & Future Climates
Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment of Pacific region
Assess changes in tropical cyclone risk between current and future climate for building, infrastructure and agricultural assets across the Pacific region
Assess changes in tropical cyclone risk between current and future climate for building, infrastructure and agricultural assets across the Pacific region
Current climate average annual losses across the Pacific
Changes in average annual loss by country
Global Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment
• Part of the UNISDR Global Assessment Report (GAR)
• Collaboration between GA & NGI (Norway)
• Contributions from several organizations (URS, INGV, USGS, IPMA)
Shallow Water Bathymetry from Space
• Physics-based inversion of optical remote sensing data
• Cost effective for remote regions and to “fill the gap” between traditional deep water survey methods
Cocos (Keeling) IslandATWS
Ghizo Island, SolomonsAusAID
Lord Howe IslandMarine Biodiversity Hub
• Radar interferometry (InSAR) has been used to measure changes in surface height and model volcanic magma chamber fluxes. This example is from Rabaul Caldera
• This remote sensing method can be applied to other hazards (e.g. seismic, landslide) and over large areas.
Monitoring natural hazards in PNG
Deeper signal from sub-harbour magma chamber
Shallow signal from dyking radial to volcanic vent
InaSAFE is free software that produces realistic natural hazard impact scenarios for better planning, preparedness and response activities.
Hazard: Maumere Tsunami Inundation Model – DMInnovation (25m)
Exposure: Population Model – WorldPop (100m) | Buildings - OSM
InaSAFE – Maumere Tsunami
InaSAFE – Jakarta Flood
Hazard: Jakarta Flood January 2013 – BPBD DKI Jakarta
Exposure: Buildings - OSM
Andy Barnicoat Phone: +61 2 6249 9111 Email: [email protected]
Web: www.ga.gov.au Postal Address: GPO Box 378, Canberra ACT 2601
Thank you