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Median Real Income, Median Real Income, Sub-Saharan AfricaSub-Saharan Africa

Growth in GDP per capita,1996 - Growth in GDP per capita,1996 - 20082008Emerging Countries Other Countries Oil ExportersBotswana 4.1   Burundi -0.8   Angola 7.6Burkina Faso 2.8   Central African Republic -0.5   Cameroon 1.7Cape Verde 4.0   Comoros -0.3   Chad 3.4Ethiopia 4.1   Congo, Dem. Rep. -1.1   Congo, Rep. 1.3Ghana 2.6   Cote d'Ivoire -0.9   Eq. Guinea 23.6Lesotho 2.3   Djibouti -0.4   Gabon -0.7Mali 2.5   Eritrea -1.7   Mauritania 1.1Mauritius 3.7   Gambia, The 1.5   Nigeria 2.3Mozambique 5.4   Guinea 1.7   Sudan 4.7Namibia 2.4   Guinea-Bissau -2.3  Rwanda 3.7 Niger 0.6  Sao Tome and Principe 5.0   Madagascar 0.9  Seychelles 2.6   Somalia n.a.  South Africa 2.0   Swaziland 1.9  Tanzania 3.0   Togo 0.2  Uganda 3.8   Zimbabwe -2.9  Zambia 1.8    

   Threshold Countries    Benin 1.3    Kenya                   2003-08 2.4    Liberia                  2005-08 3.1Malawi 1.2Senegal 1.4Sierra Leone       2003-08 3.7

Average Per Capita Average Per Capita Income Income

Growth in Per Capita Growth in Per Capita IncomeIncome

Gross Capital Formation Gross Capital Formation (Investment)(Investment)

Total TradeTotal Trade

Productivity GrowthProductivity GrowthTotal Factor Productivity Growth in SSA (3 Total Factor Productivity Growth in SSA (3 year rolling average)year rolling average)

Agricultural ProductionAgricultural Production

Infant MortalityInfant Mortality

Primary School EnrollmentPrimary School Enrollment

Population Growth RatePopulation Growth Rate

Poverty Rates in the Emerging Poverty Rates in the Emerging African CountriesAfrican Countries Share of population with incomes less than $1.25/dayShare of population with incomes less than $1.25/day

Changes in Commodity Changes in Commodity PricesPrices

Five Fundamental Five Fundamental ChangesChanges1. The Rise of Democracy and

Improved Governance2. Stronger Economic Policies3. The End of the Debt Crisis and

Improved Donor Relations4. The Rise of New Technologies5. The Emergence of a New

Generation

Major Changes in the Emerging Major Changes in the Emerging Countries: Economic Policy Reform, Countries: Economic Policy Reform, Political Change, and Per Capita Political Change, and Per Capita Income Income

African DemocraciesAfrican Democracies

Freedom House Scores Freedom House Scores Average of Political Rights and Civil Average of Political Rights and Civil Liberties ScoresLiberties Scores

Freedom House and Polity IV Freedom House and Polity IV Scores Scores

Freedom House

Polity IV Score

7 = worst score

-10 = worst score

1 = best score

+10 = best score

Emerging Countries 1989 2008

1989 2008 Botswana 1.5 2

7 8

Burkina Faso 5.5 4

-7 0 Cape Verde 5.5 1

N/A N/A

Ethiopia 7 5

-8 1 Ghana 5.5 1.5

-7 8

Lesotho 5.5 2.5

-7 8 Mali 6 2.5

-7 6

Mauritius 2 1.5

10 10 Mozambique 6.5 3

-7 6

Namibia 3.5 2

6* 6 Rwanda 6 5.5

-7 -3

Sao Tome and Principe 5.5 2

N/A N/A Seychelles 6 3

N/A N/A

South Africa 5.5 2

4 9 Tanzania 6 3.5

-6 -1

Uganda 5 4.5

-7 -1 Zambia 5.5 3

-9 7

Threshold Countries Benin 7 2

-7 7

Kenya 6 3.5

-6 6 Liberia 5.5 3.5

-6 6

Malawi 6.5 4

-9 6 Senegal 3.5 3

-1 8

Sierra Leone 5.5 3

-7 7

Incidence of Domestic Incidence of Domestic Conflict Conflict   Average number of incidents per year per Average number of incidents per year per country groupcountry group

African Leaders African Leaders Departure From PowerDeparture From Power

Source: Daniel N. Posner and Daniel J. Young, 2007, “The Institutionalization of Political Power in Africa,” Journal of Democracy 18-3 (July), pp. 128.

Governance IndicatorsGovernance IndicatorsSource: World Bank InstituteSource: World Bank Institute

Rule of Law Regulatory Quality

Year Emerging Non-emerging Emerging Non-emerging

1996 -0.47 -0.77 -0.49 -0.64

2008 -0.24 -0.99 -0.25 -1.01

Government Effectiveness Political Stability

Emerging Non-emerging Emerging Non-emerging

1996 -0.46 -0.71 -0.39 -0.40

2008 -0.29 -1.10 0.01 -0.84

Control of Corruption Voice & Accountability

Emerging Non-emerging Emerging Non-emerging

1996 -0.49 -0.55 -0.10 -0.69

2008 -0.15 -0.80 0.03 -1.19

2. Stronger Economic 2. Stronger Economic PoliciesPoliciesPrevalence of “Anti-Growth Prevalence of “Anti-Growth Syndromes”Syndromes”

Currency Overvaluation: Currency Overvaluation: The Real Exchange RateThe Real Exchange Rate

Average Import Tariff Average Import Tariff RatesRates

Changes in Agricultural Changes in Agricultural Policies: The Nominal Rate Policies: The Nominal Rate of Assistance of Assistance

Costs of Starting a Costs of Starting a BusinessBusiness

3. The End of the Debt Crisis 3. The End of the Debt Crisis and Change in Donor and Change in Donor RelationshipsRelationships

Official Financing for the Official Financing for the Emerging African Emerging African CountriesCountries

4. The rise of new 4. The rise of new Technologies:Technologies:Mobile Subscriptions (per 100 Mobile Subscriptions (per 100 people)people)

Internet Internet Subscriptions Subscriptions (per 100 people)(per 100 people)

5. The Emergence of a New 5. The Emergence of a New GenerationGeneration