disclaimer: the views expressed are those of paul gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor....
TRANSCRIPT
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of Paul Gipe and are not necessarily those of the sponsor.
Disclosure: Paul Gipe has worked with ANZSES, APROMA, ASES, AusWEA, AWEA, BWEA, BWE, CanWEA, DGW, EECA, GEO, IREQ, KWEA, NASA, NREL, NZWEA, OSEA, USDOE, Aerovironment, the Folkecenter, the Izaak Walton League, Microsoft, PG&E, the Minnesota Project, NRG Systems, SeaWest, SEI/REIO, the Sierra Club, and Zond Systems, and written for magazines in the USA, Canada, France, Denmark, and Germany.
Ontario Sustainable Energy Association
• An Association of Member Groups
• We Encourage Local Ownership
• We Help Build Renewable Power Co-ops
• We Support Community Power
Wind Co-op Meeting, Copenhagen, Denmark
©Jen Larsen, KMoE
OOE Outline• OSEA’s ARTs Campaign
Wind OverviewCommunity WindAdvanced Renewable TariffsImpact on Farmers
• Philosophical Context• Net Metering & Net Billing• Market Mechanisms• German Market Example• Distributed Generation
OOE Outline• The Tariffs• Germany The Results• Tariff Design
GermanyFrance
• Why Premium Prices• How To Get There• Sources of Information• Wind Works
Coping with the Power CrisisBy Increasing Renewables
Overview of Worldwide Wind Development
Colorado
California
Wind Energy Has Come of Age
Paul Gipe & Assoc.
Montefalcone, Italy
Galicia, Spain
Why Wind?
• Reduces Use of Nuclear & Fossil Fuels
• Most Cost-Effective of New Renewables
• Relatively Benign
Wind Energy’s Benefits
• Clean & Green (Mostly)No SOx, NOx, or CO2
• RenewableNet Positive Energy Balance (4-6
months)
• Domestic: Not Subject to Embargo
• Does Not Consume Water
• Modular = Flexible
Wind Energy’s Impacts
• Aesthetics or Intrusiveness
• Scarring from Roads
• Shadow Flicker & Disco Effect
• Noise--They are Audible
• WildlifeHabitat Disruption
Bird Kills: Collisions, Electrocutions
Why Now?
• Wind WorksGreater Reliability
• Productivity ImprovedMore Efficient
Taller Towers
• Costs DeclinedEconomies-of-Scale
84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Year
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2500Sales Price in US$/kW
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Sales Price
Yield
Medium-Size & Large Wind Turbines
0
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60
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80Rotor Diameter (m)
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50
15 25 40 60 70 80
Diameter (meters)
0
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Swept Area (m²)
2000
12.5 m, 40 kW
27 m, 225 kW
40 m, 500 kW
80 m, 1.8 MW
Kincardine, Ontario
Northern Ireland
Wind is Flexible• Scale
Big or Small Projects
• LocationNear or Far
• TimeShort Lead Times
• OwnershipLocal or Absentee
Wind is Modular
• Quickly Installed
• When Needed
• As Needed
• Where Needed
• By Anyone
Tehachapi, California
Local Wind Adds Resiliency to High Voltage System*
• Near LoadBoosts HV System
• Small ProjectsCan be Sized to Load
• Less Losses
• Outages SmallEasily Corrected
*Amory & Hunter Lovins, Brittle Power, 1983.
Port Albert, Ontario
World Wind Generating Capacity
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Year
0
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10
15
20
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30
35
40
Thousand MW
Other Asia
Europe North America
Wind Capacity Growth by Region
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Year
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Megawatts/year
Asia
North America
Europe
World Wind Market Comparison
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Year
0
5
10
15
Thousand MW Total
Britain
Denmark
Spain
USA
Germany
World Wind Capacity 2003~40,000 MW
U.S.A. 17%
Europe 74%
Asia 8%
Canada 1%
2003 World Wind Capacity
6,700 MW 30,000 MW
3,200 MW
Wind Growing Rapidly• Germany
2,600 MW in 2003
20,000 MW by 2006
30,000 MW by 2012
• Spain: 1,000 MW/yr
• France14,000 MW Filed
• USA: 500-2,000 MW/yr
• Growth: 20%-40%/yr
High Penetration is Possible
Percent Wind
Spain 2%
Germany 4%
Denmark 17%
Schleswig-Holstein, D 28%
Ostfriesland, D 55%
Sydthy Kommune, DK 130%
Wind Energy is a Real Business $27.5 Billion CAD in 2003
O&M5%
Electricity Sales51%
Project Development44%
Wind WorksJobs in the Wind Industry
Europe Direct Indirect Total
Germany 7,500 37,500 45,000
Denmark 8,600 4,300 13,000
Spain 7,000 15,000 22,000
Total 80,000
Wind-Generating Capacity 2003Where Ontario Stands
Germany
Spain
Denmark
California
Canada
Ontario
0 5 10 15
Megawatts (Thousands)
Era of Distributed Generation• Here Now• Resilient, Not Brittle• Short Lead Times• Near Load, Less Losses• Opportunity for Many• Fosters Energy Awareness
Alberta, Canada Ontario, Canada
Alberta, Canada
Montana, USA
Distributed Wind Energy
Distributed Wind Energy
Hohe Westerwald, Germany
Distributed Wind Energy
Thy, Denmark
Distributed Wind Energy
Ostfriesland, Germany
What is Community Power?• Local
Rooted in and Responsible to the Community
• Locally OwnedCooperative, First Nation, Farmer-Owned
• Commercial-Scale Generation
• Small Projects Making a Big Difference
Why Community Wind?
• More Power More Quickly
• More People Involved Locally
• More Money Locally
• More Jobs Locally
Increasing Acceptance #1
“Your Own Pigs Don’t Stink”
Jutland, Denmark
Why Community Wind?• Participation = Greater Acceptance
• Distributed = Greater Resiliency
• Clean & Green (Mostly)
• Human Scale
• Enables Local Ownership
• New Cash Crop For Farmers
Danish Co-ops (Vindmølleaug or Fællesmølle)
• 1/4 Capacity Nationwide
• ~ $1.7CAD Billion
• 100,000 Households Own Shares
• 5% of PopulationVelling Mærsk-Tændpibe
German Co-ops (Bürgerbeteiligung)
• 1/3 Total Capacity
• ~$7CAD Billion
• 300,000 Own Shares
• 2/3 Schleswig-Holstein
• 4/5 Nordfriesland Amt
Hooksiel, Schleswig-Holstein, Germany
Sydthy Kabelaug Denmark
• 16 km of Buried Cable
• Direct to HV Network
• 26 x V27s (225 kW)
• ~1 Million kWh/unit
• Mostly Pig Farmers
Middelgrunden Co-op København
• 20 x 2 MW Off-shore
• 1/2 Owned by Co-op
• 1/2 Owned by Utility
• 8,500 Investors
• ~$1,000CAD per Share
• Visible from Folketing
©Bonus a/s
Paderborn Co-op Germany
• 4 Wind Plants• 17 Companies• 80 x 1.5 MW• 110 MW• $240CAD Million• 780 ha (2,000 ac)• All Companies Local• All Pay Local Taxes
Enercon E66
Wieringemeer Noord Holland
• 5 x 600 kW
• Co-owned 1/2 by Two Farmers
1/4 by Manufacturer
1/4 by Utility
Toronto WindShare
• First Urban Turbine in N.A.• Co-Owned
WindShare Co-opToronto Hydro
• Prominent Location• Highly Visible• Highly Popular
So How Do We Get There?
How Does Ontario Cope with the Power Crisis
and Develop Community Wind?
How Can Ontario Farmers Help
Ontario is a New Market
• Offers Great Promise
• Potentially Large Market
• Lure to ManufacturersNot Yet Too Late
• New Markets Grow FastWhen Conditions are Right
Growth Quickens in New Markets
• “Take-Off” is Shorter
• Benefit from Experience
• Better Turbines
• Bigger Turbines
27 m, 225 kW
80 m, 1.8 MW
Growth Quickens in New Markets
Years to 2,000 MW 4,000 MW 8,000 MW
Denmark 16
Germany 7 2 2
Spain 5 1.5
Ontario ?
Renewable Tariffs Launched
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Year
0
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10
15
Thousand MW Total
Denmark
Spain
GermanyRenewable Tariffs Launched
Elements of Success in Europe• Right Price for Fixed Period• Right of Interconnection• By-Right Permitted Rural Use
What Has Worked in Europe• What Works
Advanced Renewable Tariffs (ARTs)
• What Has Not WorkedDirect Subsidies & Tax Credits
Quota or Bidding Systems
• Proof is in the MarketARTs Markets = Many Players
Quota Markets = Few Players
Bidding or Quota Markets• Heavy Administrative Burden• Stop-Start/Boom-Bust
e.g. Quebec 100 MW, then 0
• Little DiversityNo Room for Community Projects
No Room for Farmer-Owned Projects
• Longer Lead TimesLengthy EAs
• Few or No Manufacturers
Advanced Renewable Tariffs• Creates Dynamic Markets
• Ensures Price Stability
• Encourages Manufacturing
• Offers Opportunity to Many PlayersFarmers
Communities
Coops
Wind Companies
Advanced Renewable Tariffs• What Are They?
Political Price, Not Political QuotaFixed Price/kWh for a Fixed Period
• How Do They Work?Simple & ComprehensibleLittle or No Administration
• Where?Germany, France, Spain, Austria,
Netherlands, Portugal . . . Ontario?
Advanced Renewable Tariffs for Ontario Projects <10 MW
• 20 Year Fixed-Price Contract• $0.10CAD/kWh• Years 1-10: $0.10/kWh• Years 10-20
High Productivity: $0.08CAD/kWhLow Productivity: $0.10CAD/kWh
• Streamlined Interconnection• By-Right Permitted Use
Community WindA Vision to Excite the Imagination
• 2,000 MW in 4 years?
• 4,000 MW in 6 years?
• 8,000 MW by 2012?10% of Electrical Energy
Community Wind is About People
How Wind Can Benefit Ontario Farmers
• RoyaltiesLowest Risk
Developer Bears Financial Risk
Lowest Rewards% of Gross Revenue
• OwnershipRisk Born Directly
Wind Risk, Technology Risk, Political Risk
All Profit Owned by Farmer
Royalties & Land Rents
1-10 10-20 20-30
German Average 5%
Indian Mesa, TX 4% 6% 8%
Woodward Mesa, TX 4% 6%
US BLM, CA 4%
Freiburg, Germany 3.8% 5.4%
Portugal 2.5%
Ontario 2-2.75 ?
Potential per Farm• Turbines Use Only ~5-10%!• Potential to Double Farm Income
For 1/2 of Ontario Farmers
Rural Ontario Economic Benefit
• 55,000 Farmers
• 1/2 Install One 1-MW Turbine
• 27,000 MW
• 1/3 of All Ontario Electricity
• $4 billion CAD/Year Total TurnoverMoney Stays Within Province
Money Circulates Through Rural Economy
Potentially Stimulating Rural Revival
Community Wind
Technology for Life*
*from N.F.S. Grundtvig
For Today and for Tomorrow