discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, aquamaps

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iMarine Event; a platform for collaboration 29 September 2014, Brussels (Belgium) Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species iMarine Event 29 September 2014, Brussels Belgium on the marine species AquaMaps Nicolas BAILLY FishBase Information and Research Group [email protected] and WorldFish

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Presentation by Nicolas Bailly, FIN on how iMarine facilitated the production of distribution maps by reducing the calculation time.

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Page 1: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

iMarine Event; a platform for collaboration

29 September 2014, Brussels (Belgium)

Discovering the impact of climate change

on the marine species

iMarine Event 29 September 2014, Brussels Belgium

on the marine species

AquaMaps

Nicolas BAILLY

FishBase Information and Research Group

[email protected]

and WorldFish

Page 2: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Who we are

• FIN: FishBase Information and Research Group

• www.fin.ph, started in 2003 (NGO,

Philippines)

• Support the availability of comprehensive • Support the availability of comprehensive

information system(s) with key data on all

aquatic organisms of the world, easily

accessible and free-of-charge to the public

• FishBase, Catalogue of Life, AquaMaps,

SeaLifeBase

Page 3: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

What our communities are

• Biodiversity Informatics

• Fisheries

• Aquatic Biodiversity Conservation

• Support the management of aquatic natural

resources balancing exploitation and

conservation for a sustainable use

Page 4: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Biodiversity data challenge

• Biodiversity ARE NOT ONLY point data

• Scattered in literature, researcher personal

files, archives on various medias, lost, not

digitized

• Not standardized (yet)

• Point data not properly curated by providers

Page 5: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Biodiversity data challenge

• Hooked to taxa through names, preferably

species (+ locality = populations/stocks)

• Taxa that are taxonomic group hypotheses

always falsifiable, including at species level

• Labeled with names that can change as

character strings

• With a too high rate of specimen

misidentification

Page 6: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Biodiversity data challenge

• IPR issues, in particular exploitation data

leading to aggregations, fuzzification, and

more … before dissemination

• Publishing and sharing data is only a recent

trend < 2 decades (TDWG since mid 80s)

• No common repositories in general, some • No common repositories in general, some

restricted domain exceptions, and when exist

no clear mandate to focus on data curation

• Competition between information systems

that countries want to control by themselves

Page 7: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

iMarine helped us to address challenges

• Facilitating the connection between datasets

• Standardizing the access to datasets

• Providing hardware and software resources

that would not be affordable for small entities

like FIN in terms of funds …like FIN in terms of funds …

• … but even more in terms of trained staff

• Publishing, sharing and disseminating data

Page 8: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

AquaMaps: From point data …

Gadus morhua, data and map from OBIS, ~860,000

Page 9: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

… to distribution maps

Page 10: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

AquaMaps – how does it work?

• Bathymetry• Temperature

– Sea surface temperature (SST) for pelagic species (0-200 m)– Bottom temperature for non-pelagic species (>200 m)

• Salinity• Salinity– Sea surface salinity for pelagic species– Bottom salinity for non-pelagic species

• Primary production• Sea Ice Concentration• Distance to land (for special cases)

�Global raster: 0.5 degree lat x lon

= 180,000 cells

Page 11: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Probability

Environmental envelopes

AquaMaps – how does it work?

AquaMaps – Biodiversity Hotspots & Climate Change

Probability

Observedmin

Observedmax

Optimal range10th to 90th percentiles

Environmentallayer values

75th percentile +(IQR*1.5)

25th percentile -(IQR*1.5)

IQR = interquartile range

Page 12: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

AquaMaps – how does it work?

AquaMaps – Biodiversity Hotspots & Climate Change

Page 13: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

AquaMaps – how does it work?

AquaMaps – Biodiversity Hotspots & Climate Change

Solea Solea – Common Sole

Ready et al, accepted

Page 14: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

… to climate change maps (year 2100)

2100

iMarine Event 29 September 2014, Brussels Belgium

2014

Page 15: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Standardized distribution maps for over 17,300 species

of fishes, marine mammals and invertebrates

Page 16: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Species

Richness by

Half degree

cell for 2010

Page 17: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Species

Richness by

Half degree

cell for 2050

Page 18: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

23 hotspots in

Coral Triangle

and adjacent

seas in 2010

Page 19: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

29 hotspots

in 2050

but smaller

Page 20: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Spratleys and

Visayan Sea

The areas

loosing

more species

Page 21: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

But in

proportion

pelagic areas

are the

loosers

Page 22: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

iMarine solution: previous situation

• Efforts of TDWG: intellectually outstanding,

but production of common tools slow

• General Biodiversity platforms (in 2008)

– only started to be planned (LifeWatch, BioFresh)

or being built (ALA),

– or too domain restricted (point/occurrence data), – or too domain restricted (point/occurrence data),

Taxon names (CoL, GNA/GNI), IUCN (threat

status),

– or no capacity of analysis (EoL)

Page 23: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

iMarine solution: networking

• iMarine since D4Science (2008), with FAO in

the consortium, interesting from the fisheries

point of view: re-establishing collaboration

• OBIS (UNESCO) joined in 2012

• CoL and WoRMS involved• CoL and WoRMS involved

• GBIF data were made available

Page 24: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

iMarine solution: shared resources

• High level support for developments (research

and technical) under new IT technologies

• Access to high level hardware resources and

computing capacities

• As well as software implementation (R, GIS): • As well as software implementation (R, GIS):

integration of any existing a priori possible

• Open source and “LAN-alone” usable

Page 25: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Outcome

• Management of large datasets

• Reduction of computing time of 3* 12,000

maps * 3 from 3 days down to 4-5h (live

demonstration by the end 2011 during the

D4Science-II final review)D4Science-II final review)

• Possibility to compute GIS layers and make

them available for another e-infrastructure:

BioFresh

• Access to other environmental parameters

Page 26: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Outcome

• Potentiality to increase by one degree of

magnitude the frequency of AquaMaps

updates

• Progressive automation of all steps:

– Get data from GBIF/OBIS– Get data from GBIF/OBIS

– Select good data: removing outliers

– BiOnym: matching names

– Environmental parameters: point data enrichment

– Portability of the algorithm to R: EU BON

– Map comparison: model vs specialist (FAO, IUCN)

Page 27: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

HCAF

TaxonTable

(Name)?

GoodCells

Pointdata

Get point data

Determine presence cells

Generate envelopes

(except depth)

HSPEN

Provides Species ID

Provides BB/FAO

area (and depth

envelope) data

AquaMaps - Schematic Overview:

Alternative

modelling

algorithms

GBIF/

OBIS

Alternative

predictions

HCAF

Envelope

Generation

Species Data

Acquisition &

Pre-Processing

AquaMaps project

functionalities & tables etc

Functionalities implemented in

current AquaMaps VRE

Functionalities planned for

implementation during

D4Science II

Functionalities partially

implemented in current

AquaMaps VRE

Requires

synchronisation

after expert-

review!

FishBase/

SLB

TableName?

Can be modified by direct or

indirect expert input

Interactive mapDisplayed using

• Csquares mapper

• fully functional GIS tool

HSPEN

Generate probabilities of

species occurrence (PSO)HCAF

Map probabilitiesOutput for

further use• image

• csv download

• GIS import/expert format

• Dynamic integration

with other VREs

Multi-species

analysis• Biodiversity maps

• Lat / Lon transects

• MPA planning

•Conservation planning

tools

Environ-

mental

input data

VRE: User-

defined generic

modification of

cell values

Validation• expert-review

• extended expert-review

• comparison with FAO maps

•Statistical analysis

HSPEC

VRE: User-defined

weighting of

envelopes

Implemented in D4Science

AquaMaps VRE 10/2009

PSO

GenerationSpecies

input data

Alternative temporal

& spatial resolutions

Page 28: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Future: development

• A complete automated AquaMaps production

• Improve the dissemination of GIS layers

• Refine the scale (currently Half Degree Cell)

down to ¼ and 1/10 for coastal areas for down to ¼ and 1/10 for coastal areas for

national and local uses

• 3D

• Refine the validation tool by specialists

Page 29: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Future: production

Use of AquaMaps for :

• Seafood traceability (Frequenz)

• KBA definition: aquatic Key Biodiversity Areas

(GEF)

• Compute winners and losers with respect to • Compute winners and losers with respect to

Climate Change (ACB, Philippine Seas)

Use iMarine for:

• triggering policy making

Page 30: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Data, Information, Knowledge,

(Understanding), WisdomU

nd

ers

tan

din

g

Data A given specimen is 35 cm long and is in

a given maturity state

InformationA given species has a length at maturity

of 56 cm

Fishing a species below its length at

Un

de

rsta

nd

ing

KnowledgeFishing a species below its length at

maturity collapses the fishery

Wisdom*

For a sustainable fishery, a decision is

taken that a given species must not be

fished smaller than the length at

maturity*= management here

•DIK(U)W hierarchy from Data to Wisdom

(Zeleny, 1987; Ackoff, 1989)N. Bailly (WorldFish)

Page 31: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Only research?U

nd

ers

tan

din

g

Data

Collect data following a protocol pre-

established

Information

Synthesizing data into information with

analytical tools

Un

de

rsta

nd

ing

Knowledge

Interpretation of information to

constitute a corpus of knowledge

Management

Transform the knowledge in political

and managerial decisions

N. Bailly (WorldFish)

TRIGGERS

Page 32: Discovering the impact of climate change on the marine species, Aquamaps

Thank you