discussion started: 13 november 2017 data€¦ · 1!! ""! "

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GlobalCarbonBudget20171

CorinneLeQuéré1,RobbieM.Andrew2,PierreFriedlingstein3,StephenSitch4,JuliaPongratz5,AndrewC.2Manning6,JanIvarKorsbakken2,GlenP.Peters2,JosepG.Canadell7,RobertB.Jackson8,ThomasA.Boden9,3PieterP.Tans10,OliverD.Andrews1,VivekK.Arora11,DorotheeC.E.Bakker6,LeticiaBarbero12,13,Meike4Becker14,15,RichardA.Betts16,4,LaurentBopp17,FrédéricChevallier18,LouiseP.Chini19,PhilippeCiais18,5CatherineE.Cosca20,JessicaCross20,KimCurrie21,ThomasGasser22,IanHarris23,JudithHauck24,Vanessa6Haverd25,RichardA.Houghton26,ChristopherW.Hunt27,GeorgeHurtt19,TatianaIlyina5,AtulK.Jain28,7EtsushiKato29,MarkusKautz30,RalphF.Keeling31,KeesKleinGoldewijk32,ArneKörtzinger33,Peter8Landschützer5,NathalieLefèvre34,AndrewLenton35,36,SebastianLienert37,38,IvanLima39,Danica9

Lombardozzi40,NicolasMetzl34,FrankMillero41,PedroM.S.Monteiro42,DavidR.Munro43,JuliaE.M.S.10Nabel5,Shin-ichiroNakaoka44,YukihiroNojiri44,X.AntonioPadín45,AnnaPeregon18,BenjaminPfeil14,15,11DenisPierrot12,13,BenjaminPoulter46,47,GregorRehder48,JanetReimer49,ChristianRödenbeck50,Jörg12

Schwinger51,RolandSéférian52,IngunnSkjelvan51,BenjaminD.Stocker53,HanqinTian54,Bronte13Tilbrook35,36,IngridT.vanderLaan-Luijkx55,GuidoR.vanderWerf56,StevenvanHeuven57,NicolasViovy18,14NicolasVuichard18,AnthonyP.Walker58,AndrewJ.Watson4,AndrewJ.Wiltshire16,SönkeZaehle50,Dan15

Zhu181617

1TyndallCentreforClimateChangeResearch,UniversityofEastAnglia,NorwichResearchPark,18NorwichNR47TJ,UK19

2CICEROCenterforInternationalClimateResearch,Oslo,Norway203CollegeofEngineering,MathematicsandPhysicalSciences,UniversityofExeter,ExeterEX44QF,UK21

4CollegeofLifeandEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofExeter,ExeterEX44RJ,UK225MaxPlanckInstituteforMeteorology,Hamburg,Germany23

6CentreforOceanandAtmosphericSciences,SchoolofEnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofEast24Anglia,NorwichResearchPark,NorwichNR47TJ,UK25

7GlobalCarbonProject,CSIROOceansandAtmosphere,GPOBox1700,Canberra,ACT2601,Australia268DepartmentofEarthSystemScience,WoodsInstitutefortheEnvironment,andPrecourtInstitutefor27

Energy,StanfordUniversity,Stanford,CA94305,USA289ClimateChangeScienceInstitute,OakRidgeNationalLaboratory,OakRidge,TN37831,USA29

10NationalOceanic&AtmosphericAdministration,EarthSystemResearchLaboratory(NOAA/ESRL),30Boulder,CO80305,USA31

11CanadianCentreforClimateModellingandAnalysis,ClimateResearchDivision,Environmentand32ClimateChangeCanada,Victoria,BC,Canada33

12CooperativeInstituteforMarineandAtmosphericStudies,RosenstielSchoolforMarineand34AtmosphericScience,UniversityofMiami,Miami,FL33149,USA35

13NationalOceanic&AtmosphericAdministration/AtlanticOceanographic&MeteorologicalLaboratory36(NOAA/AOML),Miami,FL33149,USA37

14GeophysicalInstitute,UniversityofBergen,5020Bergen,Norway3815BjerknesCentreforClimateResearch,5007Bergen,Norway3916MetOfficeHadleyCentre,FitzRoyRoad,ExeterEX13PB,UK40

17LaboratoiredeMétéorologieDynamique,InstitutPierre-SimonLaplace,CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X,41DépartementdeGéosciences,EcoleNormaleSupérieure,24rueLhomond,75005Paris,France42

18LaboratoiredesSciencesduClimatetdel’Environnement,InstitutPierre-SimonLaplace,CEA-CNRS-43UVSQ,CEOrmedesMerisiers,91191GifsurYvetteCedex,France44

19DepartmentofGeographicalSciences,UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark,Maryland20742,USA4520PacificMarineEnvironmentalLaboratory,NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,Seattle,46

WA98115,USA4721NationalInstituteofWaterandAtmosphericResearch(NIWA),Dunedin9054,NewZealand48

22InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA),2361Laxenburg,Austria49

Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2017-123

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Manuscript under review for journal Earth Syst. Sci. DataDiscussion started: 13 November 2017c© Author(s) 2017. CC BY 4.0 License.

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23NCAS-Climate,ClimaticResearchUnit,UniversityofEastAnglia,NorwichResearchPark,Norwich,1NR47TJ,UK2

24AlfredWegenerInstituteHelmholtzCentreforPolarandMarineResearch,Postfach120161,275153Bremerhaven,Germany4

25CSIROOceansandAtmosphere,GPOBox1700,Canberra,ACT2601,Australia526WoodsHoleResearchCentre(WHRC),Falmouth,MA02540,USA6

27OceanProcessAnalysisLaboratory,UniversityofNewHampshire,Durham,NH03824,USA728DepartmentofAtmosphericSciences,UniversityofIllinois,Urbana,IL61821,USA8

29InstituteofAppliedEnergy(IAE),Minato-ku,Tokyo105-0003,Japan930KarlsruheInstituteofTechnology,InstituteofMeteorologyandClimateResearch/Atmospheric10

EnvironmentalResearch,82467Garmisch-Partenkirchen,Germany1131UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego,ScrippsInstitutionofOceanography,LaJolla,CA92093-0244,USA1232PBLNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency,TheHague/BilthovenandUtrechtUniversity,13

Utrecht,TheNetherlands1433GEOMARHelmholtzCentreforOceanResearchKiel,DüsternbrookerWeg20,24105Kiel,Germany1534SorbonneUniversités(UPMC,UnivParis06),CNRS,IRD,MNHN,LOCEAN/IPSLLaboratory,7525216

Paris,France1735CSIROOceansandAtmosphere,POBox1538,Hobart,Tasmania,Australia18

36AntarcticClimateandEcosystemCooperativeResearchCentre,UniversityofTasmania,Hobart,19Australia20

37ClimateandEnvironmentalPhysics,PhysicsInstitute,UniversityofBern,Bern,Switzerland2138OeschgerCentreforClimateChangeResearch,UniversityofBern,Bern,Switzerland22

39WoodsHoleOceanographicInstitution(WHOI),WoodsHole,MA02543,USA2340NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch,ClimateandGlobalDynamics,TerrestrialSciencesSection,24

Boulder,CO80305,USA2541DepartmentofOceanSciences,RSMAS/MAC,UniversityofMiami,4600RickenbackerCauseway,26

Miami,FL33149,USA2742OceanSystemsandClimate,CSIR-CHPC,CapeTown,7700,SouthAfrica28

43DepartmentofAtmosphericandOceanicSciencesandInstituteofArcticandAlpineResearch,29UniversityofColorado,CampusBox450,Boulder,CO80309-0450,USA30

44CenterforGlobalEnvironmentalResearch,NationalInstituteforEnvironmentalStudies(NIES),16-231Onogawa,Tsukuba,Ibaraki305-8506,Japan32

45InstitutodeInvestigaciónesMariñas(CSIC),Vigo36208,Spain3346NASAGoddardSpaceFlightCenter,BiosphericScienceLaboratory,Greenbelt,Maryland20771,USA34

47DepartmentofEcology,MontanaStateUniversity,Bozeman,MT59717,USA3548LeibnizInstituteforBalticSeaResearchWarnemünde,18119Rostock,Germany36

49SchoolofMarineScienceandPolicy,UniversityofDelaware,Newark,DE19716,USA3750MaxPlanckInstituteforBiogeochemistry,P.O.Box600164,Hans-Knöll-Str.10,07745Jena,Germany38

51UniResearchClimate,BjerknesCentreforClimateResearch,5007Bergen,Norway3952CentreNationaldeRechercheMétéorologique,Unitemixtederecherche3589Météo-France/CNRS,40

42AvenueGaspardCoriolis,31100Toulouse,France4153CREAF,CerdanyoladelVallès,08193Catalonia,Spain42

54SchoolofForestryandWildlifeSciences,AuburnUniversity,602DucanDrive,Auburn,AL36849,USA4355DepartmentofMeteorologyandAirQuality,WageningenUniversity&Research,POBox47,6700AA44

Wageningen,TheNetherlands4556FacultyofScience,VrijeUniversiteit,Amsterdam,TheNetherlands46

57EnergyandSustainabilityResearchInstituteGroningen(ESRIG),UniversityofGroningen,Groningen,47TheNetherlands48

58EnvironmentalSciencesDivision&ClimateChangeScienceInstitute,OakRidgeNationalLaboratory,49OakRidge,Tennessee,USA50

Correspondenceto:CorinneLeQuéré([email protected])51


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Abstract1

Accurateassessmentofanthropogeniccarbondioxide(CO2)emissionsandtheirredistribution2

amongtheatmosphere,ocean,andterrestrialbiosphere–the‘globalcarbonbudget’–is3

importanttobetterunderstandtheglobalcarboncycle,supportthedevelopmentofclimate4

policies,andprojectfutureclimatechange.Herewedescribedatasetsandmethodologyto5

quantifythefivemajorcomponentsoftheglobalcarbonbudgetandtheiruncertainties.CO26

emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF)arebasedonenergystatisticsandcementproduction7

data,respectively,whileemissionsfromland-usechange(ELUC),mainlydeforestation,arebased8

onland-coverchangedataandbookkeepingmodels.TheglobalatmosphericCO2concentrationis9

measureddirectlyanditsrateofgrowth(GATM)iscomputedfromtheannualchangesin10

concentration.TheoceanCO2sink(SOCEAN)andterrestrialCO2sink(SLAND)areestimatedwith11

globalprocessmodelsconstrainedbyobservations.Theresultingcarbonbudgetimbalance(BIM),12

thedifferencebetweentheestimatedtotalemissionsandtheestimatedchangesinthe13

atmosphere,ocean,andterrestrialbiosphere,isameasureofourimperfectdataand14

understandingofthecontemporarycarboncycle.Alluncertaintiesarereportedas±1σ.Forthe15

lastdecadeavailable(2007-2016),EFFwas9.4±0.5GtCyr-1,ELUC1.3±0.7GtCyr

-1,GATM4.7±0.116

GtCyr-1,SOCEAN2.4±0.5GtCyr-1,andSLAND3.0±0.8GtCyr

-1,withabudgetimbalanceBIMof0.617

GtCyr-1indicatingoverestimatedemissionsand/orunderestimatedsinks.Foryear2016alone,the18

growthinEFFwasapproximatelyzeroandemissionsremainedat9.9±0.5GtCyr-1.Alsofor2016,19

ELUCwas1.3±0.7GtCyr-1,GATMwas6.1±0.2GtCyr

-1,SOCEANwas2.6±0.5GtCyr-1andSLANDwas20

2.7±1.0GtCyr-1,withasmallBIMof−0.3GtC.GATMcontinuedtobehigherin2016comparedto21

thepastdecade(2007-2016),reflectinginpartthehigherfossilemissionsandsmallerSLANDfor22

thatyearconsistentwithElNiñoconditions.TheglobalatmosphericCO2concentrationreached23

402.8±0.1ppmaveragedover2016.For2017,preliminarydataindicatearenewedgrowthinEFF24

of+2.0%(rangeof0.8%to3.0%)basedonnationalemissionsprojectionsforChina,USA,and25

India,andprojectionsofGrossDomesticProductcorrectedforrecentchangesinthecarbon26

intensityoftheeconomyfortherestoftheworld.For2017,initialdataindicateanincreasein27

atmosphericCO2concentrationofaround5.3GtC(2.5ppm),attributedtoacombinationof28

increasingemissionsandrecedingElNiñoconditions.Thislivingdataupdatedocumentschanges29

inthemethodsanddatasetsusedinthisnewglobalcarbonbudgetcomparedwithprevious30

publicationsofthisdataset(LeQuéréetal.,2016;2015b;2015a;2014;2013).Allresults31

presentedherecanbedownloadedfromhttps://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017. 32


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1 Introduction1

Theconcentrationofcarbondioxide(CO2)intheatmospherehasincreasedfromapproximately2

277partspermillion(ppm)in1750(JoosandSpahni,2008),thebeginningoftheIndustrialEra,to3

402.8±0.1ppmin2016(DlugokenckyandTans,2016;Fig.1).TheatmosphericCO2increase4

abovepreindustriallevelswas,initially,primarilycausedbythereleaseofcarbontothe5

atmospherefromdeforestationandotherland-usechangeactivities(Ciaisetal.,2013).While6

emissionsfromfossilfuelsstartedbeforetheIndustrialEra,theyonlybecamethedominant7

sourceofanthropogenicemissionstotheatmospherefromaround1920andtheirrelativeshare8

hascontinuedtoincreaseuntilpresent.Anthropogenicemissionsoccurontopofanactivenatural9

carboncyclethatcirculatescarbonbetweenthereservoirsoftheatmosphere,ocean,and10

terrestrialbiosphereontimescalesfromsub-dailytomillennia,whileexchangeswithgeologic11

reservoirsoccuratlongertimescales(Archeretal.,2009).12

Theglobalcarbonbudgetpresentedherereferstothemean,variations,andtrendsinthe13

perturbationofCO2intheatmosphere,referencedtothebeginningoftheIndustrialEra.It14

quantifiestheinputofCO2totheatmospherebyemissionsfromhumanactivities,thegrowthrate15

ofatmosphericCO2concentration,andtheresultingchangesinthestorageofcarbonintheland16

andoceanreservoirsinresponsetoincreasingatmosphericCO2levels,climatechangeand17

variability,andotheranthropogenicandnaturalchanges(Fig.2).Anunderstandingofthis18

perturbationbudgetovertimeandtheunderlyingvariabilityandtrendsofthenaturalcarbon19

cyclearenecessarytounderstandtheresponseofnaturalsinkstochangesinclimate,CO2and20

land-usechangedrivers,andthepermissibleemissionsforagivenclimatestabilizationtarget.21

ThecomponentsoftheCO2budgetthatarereportedannuallyinthispaperincludeseparate22

estimatesfortheCO2emissionsfrom(1)fossilfuelcombustionandoxidationandcement23

production(EFF;GtCyr-1)and(2)theemissionsresultingfromdeliberatehumanactivitiesonland24

leadingtoland-usechange(ELUC;GtCyr-1);andtheirpartitioningamong(3)thegrowthrateof25

atmosphericCO2concentration(GATM;GtCyr-1),andtheuptakeofCO2(the‘CO2sinks’)in(4)the26

ocean(SOCEAN;GtCyr-1)and(5)onland(SLAND;GtCyr

-1).TheCO2sinksasdefinedhereconceptually27

includetheresponseoftheland(includinginlandwatersandestuaries)andocean(including28

coastsandseawardedge)toelevatedCO2andchangesinclimate,rivers,andotherenvironmental29

conditions,althoughinpracticenotallprocessesareaccountedfor(seeSection2.7).Theglobal30

emissionsandtheirpartitioningamongtheatmosphere,oceanandlandareinrealityinbalance,31


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howeverduetoimperfectspatialand/ortemporaldatacoverage,errorsineachestimateanddue1

tosmallertermsnotincludedinourbudgetestimate(discussedinSection2.7),theirsumdoes2

notnecessarilyadduptozero.Weintroducehereabudgetimbalance(BIM),whichisameasureof3

themismatchbetweentheestimatedemissionsandtheestimatedchangesintheatmosphere,4

landandocean.Thisisanimportantchangeinthecalculationoftheglobalcarbonbudget.With5

thischange,thefullglobalcarbonbudgetnowreads:6

!!! + !!"# = !!"# + !!"#$% + !!"#$ + !!" . (1)

GATMisusuallyreportedinppmyr-1,whichweconverttounitsofcarbonmassperyear,GtCyr-1,7

using1ppm=2.12GtC(Table1).WealsoincludeaquantificationofEFFbycountry,computed8

withbothterritorialandconsumptionbasedaccounting(seeSect.2).Equation(1)partlyomitsthe9

netinputofCO2totheatmospherefromthechemicaloxidationofreactivecarbon-containing10

gasesfromsourcesotherthanthecombustionoffossilfuels(discussedinSect.2.7).11

TheCO2budgethasbeenassessedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)inall12

assessmentreports(Ciaisetal.,2013;Denmanetal.,2007;Prenticeetal.,2001;Schimeletal.,13

1995;Watsonetal.,1990),andbyothers(e.g.Ballantyneetal.,2012).TheIPCCmethodologyhas14

beenadaptedandusedbytheGlobalCarbonProject(GCP,www.globalcarbonproject.org),which15

hascoordinatedacooperativecommunityeffortfortheannualpublicationofglobalcarbon16

budgetsuptoyear2005(Raupachetal.,2007;includingfossilemissionsonly),year200617

(Canadelletal.,2007),year2007(publishedonline;GCP,2007),year2008(LeQuéréetal.,2009),18

year2009(Friedlingsteinetal.,2010),year2010(Petersetal.,2012b),year2012(LeQuéréetal.,19

2013;Petersetal.,2013),year2013(LeQuéréetal.,2014),year2014(Friedlingsteinetal.,2014;20

LeQuéréetal.,2015b),year2015(Jacksonetal.,2016;LeQuéréetal.,2015a),andmostrecently21

year2016(LeQuéréetal.,2016).Eachofthesepapersupdatedpreviousestimateswiththelatest22

availableinformationfortheentiretimeseries.23

Weadoptarangeof±1standarddeviation(σ)toreporttheuncertaintiesinourestimates,24

representingalikelihoodof68%thatthetruevaluewillbewithintheprovidedrangeiftheerrors25

haveaGaussiandistribution.Thischoicereflectsthedifficultyofcharacterisingtheuncertaintyin26

theCO2fluxesbetweentheatmosphereandtheoceanandlandreservoirsindividually,27

particularlyonanannualbasis,aswellasthedifficultyofupdatingtheCO2emissionsfromland-28

usechange.Alikelihoodof68%providesanindicationofourcurrentcapabilitytoquantifyeach29

termanditsuncertaintygiventheavailableinformation.Forcomparison,theFifthAssessment30


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ReportoftheIPCC(AR5)generallyreportedalikelihoodof90%forlargedatasetswhose1

uncertaintyiswellcharacterised,orforlongtimeintervalslessaffectedbyyear-to-yearvariability.2

Our68%uncertaintyvalueisnearthe66%whichtheIPCCcharacterisesas‘likely’forvaluesfalling3

intothe±1σinterval.Theuncertaintiesreportedherecombinestatisticalanalysisofthe4

underlyingdataandexpertjudgementofthelikelihoodofresultslyingoutsidethisrange.The5

limitationsofcurrentinformationarediscussedinthepaperandhavebeenexaminedindetail6

elsewhere(Ballantyneetal.,2015;Zscheischleretal.,2017).7

Allquantitiesarepresentedinunitsofgigatonnesofcarbon(GtC,1015gC),whichisthesameas8

petagramsofcarbon(PgC;Table1).UnitsofgigatonnesofCO2(orbilliontonnesofCO2)usedin9

policyareequalto3.664multipliedbythevalueinunitsofGtC.10

Thispaperprovidesadetaileddescriptionofthedatasetsandmethodologyusedtocomputethe11

globalcarbonbudgetestimatesfortheperiodpreindustrial(1750)to2016andinmoredetailfor12

theperiod1959to2016.Wealsoprovidedecadalaveragesstartingin1960includingthelast13

decade(2007-2016),resultsfortheyear2016,andaprojectionforyear2017.Finallyweprovide14

cumulativeemissionsfromfossilfuelsandland-usechangesinceyear1750,thepreindustrial15

period,andsinceyear1870,thereferenceyearforthecumulativecarbonestimateusedbythe16

IPCC(AR5)basedontheavailabilityofglobaltemperaturedata(Stockeretal.,2013).Thispaperis17

updatedeveryyearusingtheformatof‘livingdata’tokeeparecordofbudgetversionsandthe18

changesinnewdata,revisionofdata,andchangesinmethodologythatleadtochangesin19

estimatesofthecarbonbudget.Additionalmaterialsassociatedwiththereleaseofeachnew20

versionwillbepostedattheGlobalCarbonProject(GCP)website21

(http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget),withfossilfuelemissionsalsoavailable22

throughtheGlobalCarbonAtlas(http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org).Withthisapproach,weaim23

toprovidethehighesttransparencyandtraceabilityinthereportingofCO2,thekeydriverof24

climatechange.25

2 Methods26

Multipleorganizationsandresearchgroupsaroundtheworldgeneratedtheoriginal27

measurementsanddatausedtocompletetheglobalcarbonbudget.Theeffortpresentedhereis28

thusmainlyoneofsynthesis,whereresultsfromindividualgroupsarecollated,analysedand29

evaluatedforconsistency.Wefacilitateaccesstooriginaldatawiththeunderstandingthat30


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primarydatasetswillbereferencedinfuturework(SeeTable2for‘Howtocite’thedatasets).1

Descriptionsofthemeasurements,models,andmethodologiesfollowbelowandindepth2

descriptionsofeachcomponentaredescribedelsewhere.3

Thisisthe12thversionoftheglobalcarbonbudgetandthesixthrevisedversionintheformatofa4

livingdataupdate.ItbuildsonthelatestpublishedglobalcarbonbudgetofLeQuéréetal.(2016).5

Themainchangesare:(1)theinclusionofdatatoyear2016(inclusive)andaprojectionforthe6

globalcarbonbudgetforyear2017;(2)theuseoftwobookkeepingmodelstoassessELUC(instead7

ofone),(3)theuseofDynamicGlobalVegetationModels(DGVMs)toassessSLAND,(4)the8

introductionofthebudgetimbalanceBIMasthedifferencebetweentheestimatedemissionsand9

sinks,thusremovingtheassumptioninpreviousglobalcarbonbudgetsthatthemain10

uncertaintiesareprimarilyonthelandsink(SLAND),andrecognisinguncertaintiesintheestimate11

ofSocean,particularlyondecadaltime-scales,(5)theadditionofatablepresentingthemajor12

knownsourcesofuncertainties,and(6)theexpansionofthemodeldescriptions.Themain13

methodologicaldifferencesbetweenannualcarbonbudgetsaresummarisedinTable3.14

2.1 CO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF)15

2.1.1 Emissionsestimates16

TheestimatesofglobalandnationalCO2emissionsfromfossilfuels,includinggasflaringand17

cementproduction(EFF),reliesprimarilyonenergyconsumptiondata,specificallydataon18

hydrocarbonfuels,collatedandarchivedbyseveralorganisations(Andresetal.,2012).Weuse19

fourmaindatasetsforhistoricalemissions(1751-2016):20

1. GlobalandnationalemissionestimatesfromCDIACforthetimeperiod1751-2014(Boden21

etal.,2017),asitistheonlydatasetthatextendsbackto1751bycountry.22

2. OfficialUNFCCCnationalinventoryreportsfor1990-2015forthe42AnnexIcountriesin23

theUNFCCC(UNFCCC,2017),asweassessthesetobethemostaccurateestimatesand24

areperiodicallyreviewed.25

3. TheBPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy(BP,2017),toprojecttheemissionsforwardto26

2016toensurethemostrecentestimatespossible.27

4. TheUSGeologicalSurveyestimatesofcementproduction(USGS,2017),toestimate28

cementemissions.29


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Inthefollowingweprovidemoredetailsineachdatasetandadditionalmodificationsthatare1

requiredtomakethedatasetconsistentandusable.2

CDIAC:TheCDIACestimateshavebeenupdatedannuallytoincludethemostrecentyear(2014)3

andtoincludestatisticalrevisionstorecenthistoricaldata(UN,2017).Fuelmassesandvolumes4

areconvertedtofuelenergycontentusingcountry-levelcoefficientsprovidedbytheUN,and5

thenconvertedtoCO2emissionsusingconversionfactorsthattakeintoaccounttherelationship6

betweencarboncontentandenergy(heat)contentofthedifferentfueltypes(coal,oil,gas,gas7

flaring)andthecombustionefficiency(MarlandandRotty,1984).8

UNFCCC:EstimatesfromtheUNFCCCnationalinventoryreportsfollowtheIPCCguidelines(IPCC,9

2006),buthaveaslightlylargersystemboundarythanCDIACbyincludingemissionscomingfrom10

carbonatesotherthanincementmanufacture.WereallocatethedetailedUNFCCCestimatesto11

theCDIACdefinitionsofcoal,oil,gas,cement,andothertoallowconsistentcomparisonsover12

timeandbetweencountries.13

BP:ForthemostrecentperiodwhentheUNFCCC(2016)andCDIAC(2015-2016)estimatesarenot14

available,wegeneratepreliminaryestimatesusingtheBPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy15

(Andresetal.,2014;Myhreetal.,2009).WeapplytheBPgrowthratesbyfueltype(coal,oil,gas)16

toestimate2016emissionsbasedon2015estimates(UNFCCC),andtoestimate2015and201617

basedon2014estimates(CDIAC).BP'sdatasetexplicitlycoversabout70countries(96%ofglobal18

emissions),andfortheremainingcountriesweusegrowthratesfromthesub-regionthecountry19

belongsto.Forthemostrecentyears,flaringisassumedconstantfromthemostrecentavailable20

yearofdata(2015forcountriesthatreporttotheUNFCCC,2014fortheremainder).21

USGS:EstimatesofemissionsfromcementproductionarebasedonUSGS(USGS,2017),applying22

theemissionfactorsfromCDIAC(MarlandandRotty,1984).TheCDIACcementemissionsare23

knowntobehigh,andarelikelytobereviseddownwardsnextyear(Andrew,2017).Some24

fractionoftheCaOandMgOincementisreturnedtothecarbonateformduringcement25

weatheringbutthisisomittedhere(Xietal.,2016).26

Countrymappings:ThepublishedCDIACdatasetincludes256countriesandregions.Thislist27

includescountriesthatnolongerexist,suchastheUSSRandYugoslavia.Wereducethelistto22028

countriesbyreallocatingemissionstothecurrentlydefinedterritories,usingmass-preserving29

aggregationordisaggregation.ExamplesofaggregationincludemergingEastandWestGermany30


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tothecurrentlydefinedGermany.Examplesofdisaggregationincludereallocatingtheemissions1

fromformerUSSRtotheresultingindependentcountries.Fordisaggregation,weusetheemission2

shareswhenthecurrentterritoriesfirstappeared,andthushistoricalestimatesofdisaggregated3

countriesshouldbetreatedwithextremecare.4

Globaltotal:OurglobalestimateisbasedonCDIAC,andthisisgreaterthanthesumofemissions5

fromallcountries.Thisislargelyattributabletoemissionsthatoccurininternationalterritory,in6

particular,thecombustionoffuelsusedininternationalshippingandaviation(bunkerfuels).The7

emissionsfrominternationalbunkerfuelsarecalculatedbasedonwherethefuelswereloaded,8

butwedonotincludetheminthenationalemissionsestimates.Otherdifferencesoccur1)9

becausethesumofimportsinallcountriesisnotequaltothesumofexports,and2)becauseof10

inconsistentnationalreporting,differingtreatmentofoxidationofnon-fuelusesofhydrocarbons11

(e.g.assolvents,lubricants,feedstocks,etc.),and3)changesinfuelstored(Andresetal.,2012).12

2.1.2 UncertaintyassessmentforEFF13

Weestimatetheuncertaintyoftheglobalemissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustryat±5%(scaled14

downfromthepublished±10%at±2σtotheuseof±1σboundsreportedhere;Andresetal.,15

2012).Thisisconsistentwithamoredetailedrecentanalysisofuncertaintyof±8.4%at±2σ16

(Andresetal.,2014)andatthehigh-endoftherangeof±5-10%at±2σreportedbyBallantyneet17

al.(2015).Thisincludesanassessmentofuncertaintiesintheamountsoffuelconsumed,the18

carbonandheatcontentsoffuels,andthecombustionefficiency.Whileweconsiderafixed19

uncertaintyof±5%forallyears,theuncertaintyasapercentageoftheemissionsisgrowingwith20

timebecauseofthelargershareofglobalemissionsfromemergingeconomiesanddeveloping21

countries(Marlandetal.,2009).Generally,emissionsfrommatureeconomieswithgood22

statisticalprocesseshaveanuncertaintyofonlyafewpercent(Marland,2008),whiledeveloping23

countriessuchasChinahaveuncertaintiesofaround±10%(for±1σ;Greggetal.,2008).24

Uncertaintiesofemissionsarelikelytobemainlysystematicerrorsrelatedtounderlyingbiasesof25

energystatisticsandtotheaccountingmethodusedbyeachcountry.26

Weassignamediumconfidencetotheresultspresentedherebecausetheyarebasedonindirect27

estimatesofemissionsusingenergydata(Durantetal.,2011).Thereisonlylimitedandindirect28

evidenceforemissions,althoughthereisahighagreementamongtheavailableestimateswithin29

thegivenuncertainty(Andresetal.,2014;Andresetal.,2012),andemissionestimatesare30


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consistentwitharangeofotherobservations(Ciaisetal.,2013),eventhoughtheirregionaland1

nationalpartitioningismoreuncertain(Franceyetal.,2013).2

2.1.3 Emissionsembodiedingoodsandservices 3

CDIAC,UNFCCC,andBPnationalemissionstatistics‘includegreenhousegasemissionsand4

removalstakingplacewithinnationalterritoryandoffshoreareasoverwhichthecountryhas5

jurisdiction’(Rypdaletal.,2006),andarecalledterritorialemissioninventories.Consumption-6

basedemissioninventoriesallocateemissionstoproductsthatareconsumedwithinacountry,7

andareconceptuallycalculatedastheterritorialemissionsminusthe‘embodied’territorial8

emissionstoproduceexportedproductsplustheemissionsinothercountriestoproduce9

importedproducts(Consumption=Territorial–Exports+Imports).Consumption-basedemission10

attributionresults(e.g.DavisandCaldeira,2010)provideadditionalinformationtoterritorial-11

basedemissionsthatcanbeusedtounderstandemissiondrivers(HertwichandPeters,2009)and12

quantifyemissiontransfersbythetradeofproductsbetweencountries(Petersetal.,2011b).The13

consumption-basedemissionshavethesameglobaltotal,butreflectthetrade-drivenmovement14

ofemissionsacrosstheEarth'ssurfaceinresponsetohumanactivities.15

Weestimateconsumption-basedemissionsfrom1990-2015byenumeratingtheglobalsupply16

chainusingaglobalmodeloftheeconomicrelationshipsbetweeneconomicsectorswithinand17

betweeneverycountry(AndrewandPeters,2013;Petersetal.,2011a).Ouranalysisisbasedon18

theeconomicandtradedatafromtheGlobalTradeandAnalysisProject(GTAP;Narayananetal.,19

2015),andwemakedetailedestimatesfortheyears1997(GTAPversion5),2001(GTAP6),and20

2004,2007,and2011(GTAP9.2),covering57sectorsand141countriesandregions.Thedetailed21

resultsarethenextendedintoanannualtime-seriesfrom1990tothelatestyearoftheGross22

DomesticProduct(GDP)data(2015inthisbudget),usingGDPdatabyexpenditureincurrent23

exchangerateofUSdollars(USD;fromtheUNNationalAccountsmainAggregratesdatabase;UN,24

2016)andtimeseriesoftradedatafromGTAP(basedonthemethodologyinPetersetal.,2011b25

).Weestimatethesector-levelCO2emissionsusingtheGTAPdataandmethodology,include26

flaringandcementemissionsfromCDIAC,andthenscalethenationaltotals(excludingbunker27

fuels)tomatchtheemissionestimatesfromthecarbonbudget.Wedonotprovideaseparate28

uncertaintyestimatefortheconsumption-basedemissions,butbasedonmodelcomparisonsand29

sensitivityanalysis,theyareunlikelytobesignificantlydifferentthanfortheterritorialemission30

estimates(Petersetal.,2012a).31


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2.1.4 Growthrateinemissions1

Wereporttheannualgrowthrateinemissionsforadjacentyears(inpercentperyear)by2

calculatingthedifferencebetweenthetwoyearsandthencomparingtotheemissionsinthefirst3

year:(EFF(t0+1)-EFF(t0))/EFF(t0)×100%yr-1.Weapplyaleap-yearadjustmenttoensurevalid4

interpretationsofannualgrowthrates.Thisaffectsthegrowthratebyabout0.3%yr-1(1/365)and5

causesgrowthratestogoupapproximately0.3%ifthefirstyearisaleapyearanddown0.3%if6

thesecondyearisaleapyear.7

TherelativegrowthrateofEFFovertimeperiodsofgreaterthanoneyearcanbere-writtenusing8

itslogarithmequivalentasfollows:9

1!!!

!!!!!" = !(!"!!!)!" (2)

Herewecalculaterelativegrowthratesinemissionsformulti-yearperiods(e.g.adecade)by10

fittingalineartrendtoln(EFF)inEq.(2),reportedinpercentperyear.11

2.1.5 Emissionsprojections12

Togaininsightonemissiontrendsforthecurrentyear(2017),weprovideanassessmentofglobal13

fossilfuelandindustryemissions,EFF,bycombiningindividualassessmentsofemissionsforChina,14

USA,India(thethreecountrieswiththelargestemissions),andtherestoftheworld.Althoughthe15

EUinaggregateemitsmorethanIndia,neitherofficialforecastsnormonthlyenergystatisticsare16

availablefortheEUasawhole.Inconsequence,weuseGDPprojectionstoinfertheemissionsfor17

thisregion.18

Our2017estimateforChinauses:(1)estimatesofcoalconsumption,production,importsand19

inventorychangesfromtheChinaCoalIndustryAssociation(CCIA)andtheNationalEnergy20

AgencyofChina(NEA)forJanuarythroughJune(CCIA,2017;NEA,2017)(2)estimated21

consumptionofnaturalgasandpetroleumforJanuarythroughJunefromNEA(CCIA,2017;NEA,22

2017)and(3)productionofcementreportedforJanuarythroughAugust(NBS,2017).Usingthese23

data,weestimatethechangeinemissionsforthecorrespondingmonthsin2017comparedto24

2016assumingnochangeintheenergyandcarboncontentofcoalfor2017.Wethenusea25

centralestimateforthegrowthrateofthewholeyearthatisadjusteddownsomewhatrelativeto26

thefirsthalfoftheyear,toaccountforaslowingtrendinindustrialgrowthobservedsinceJuly27

andqualitativestatementsfromtheNEAsayingthattheyexpectoilandcoalconsumptiontobe28


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relativelystableforthesecondhalfoftheyear.Themainsourcesofuncertaintyarefrom1

inconsistenciesbetweenavailabledatasources,incompletedataoninventorychanges,the2

carboncontentofcoalandtheassumptionsforthebehaviourfortherestoftheyear.Theseare3

discussedfurtherinSect.3.2.1.4

FortheUSA,weusetheforecastoftheU.S.EnergyInformationAdministration(EIA)foremissions5

fromfossilfuels(EIA,2017).Thisisbasedonanenergyforecastingmodelwhichisrevised6

monthly,andtakesintoaccountheating-degreedays,householdexpendituresbyfueltype,7

energymarkets,policies,andothereffects.Wecombinethiswithourestimateofemissionsfrom8

cementproductionusingthemonthlyU.S.cementdatafromUSGSforJanuary-June,assuming9

changesincementproductionoverthefirstpartoftheyearapplythroughouttheyear.Whilethe10

EIA’sforecastsforcurrentfull-yearemissionshaveonaveragebeenreviseddownwards,onlynine11

suchforecastsareavailable,soweconservativelyusethefullrangeofadjustmentsfollowing12

revision,andadditionallyassumesymmetricaluncertaintytogive±2.7%aroundthecentral13

forecast.14

ForIndia,weuse(1)coalproductionandsalesdatafromtheMinistryofMines,CoalIndiaLimited15

(CIL,2017;MinistryofMines,2017)andSingareniCollieriesCompanyLimited(SCCL,2017),16

combinedwithimportsdatafromtheMinistryofCommerceandIndustry(MCI,2017)andpower17

stationstocksdatafromtheCentralElectricityAuthority(CEA,2017),(2)oilproductionand18

consumptiondatafromtheMinistryofPetroleumandNaturalGas(PPAC,2017b),(3)naturalgas19

productionandimportdatafromtheMinistryofPetroleumandNaturalGas(PPAC,2017a),and20

(4)cementproductiondatafromtheOfficeoftheEconomicAdvisor(OEA,2017).Themainsource21

ofuncertaintyintheprojectionofIndia’semissionsistheassumptionofpersistentgrowthforthe22

restoftheyear.23

Fortherestoftheworld,weusethecloserelationshipbetweenthegrowthinGDPandthe24

growthinemissions(Raupachetal.,2007)toprojectemissionsforthecurrentyear.Thisisbased25

onasimplifiedKayaIdentity,wherebyEFF(GtCyr-1)isdecomposedbytheproductofGDP(USDyr-26

1)andthefossilfuelcarbonintensityoftheeconomy(IFF;GtCUSD-1)asfollows: 27

!!! = !"# × !!! (3)

TakingatimederivativeofEquation(3)andrearranginggives:28


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1!!!

!!!!!" = 1

!"#!"#$!" + 1

!!!!!!!!" (4)

wheretheleft-handtermistherelativegrowthrateofEFF,andtheright-handtermsarethe1

relativegrowthratesofGDPandIFF,respectively,whichcansimplybeaddedlinearlytogivethe2

overallgrowthrate.3

Thegrowthratesarereportedinpercentbymultiplyingeachtermby100.Aspreliminary4

estimatesofannualchangeinGDParemadewellbeforetheendofacalendaryear,making5

assumptionsonthegrowthrateofIFFallowsustomakeprojectionsoftheannualchangeinCO26

emissionswellbeforetheendofacalendaryear.TheIFFisbasedonGDPinconstantPPP7

(purchasingpowerparity)fromtheIEAupto2014(IEA/OECD,2016)andextendedusingtheIMF8

growthratesfor2015and2016(IMF,2017).InterannualvariabilityinIFFisthelargestsourceof9

uncertaintyintheGDP-basedemissionsprojections.Wethususethestandarddeviationofthe10

annualIFFfortheperiod2006-2016asameasureofuncertainty,reflectinga±1σasintherestof11

thecarbonbudget.Thisis±1.1%yr-1fortherestoftheworld(globalemissionsminusChina,USA,12

andIndia).13

The2017projectionfortheworldismadeofthesumoftheprojectionsforChina,USA,India,and14

therest.Theuncertaintyisaddedinquadratureamongthethreeregions.Theuncertaintyhere15

reflectsthebestofourexpertopinion.16

2.2 CO2emissionsfromlanduse,land-usechangeandforestry(ELUC)17

Land-usechangeemissionsreportedhere(ELUC)includeCO2fluxesfromdeforestation,18

afforestation,logging(forestdegradationandharvestactivity),shiftingcultivation(cycleofcutting19

forestforagriculture,thenabandoning),andregrowthofforestsfollowingwoodharvestor20

abandonmentofagriculture.Onlysomelandmanagementactivitiesareincludedinourland-use21

changeemissionsestimates(Table4a).SomeoftheseactivitiesleadtoemissionsofCO2tothe22

atmosphere,whileothersleadtoCO2sinks.ELUCisthenetsumofallanthropogenicactivities23

considered.Ourannualestimatefor1959-2016isprovidedastheaverageofresultsfromtwo24

bookkeepingmodels(Sect.2.2.1):theestimatepublishedbyHoughtonandNassikas(2017;25

hereafterH&N2017)extendedhereto2016,andtheaverageoftwosimulationsdonewiththe26

BLUEmodel(“bookkeepingoflanduseemissions”;Hansisetal.,2015).Inaddition,weuseresults27

fromDGVMs(seeSect.2.2.3andTable4a),tohelpquantifytheuncertaintyinELUC,andtoexplore28


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theconsistencyofourunderstanding.Thethreemethodsaredescribedbelow,anddifferences1

arediscussedinSect.3.2.2

2.2.1 Bookkeepingmodels3

Land-usechangeCO2emissionsanduptakefluxesarecalculatedbytwobookkeepingmodels.4

BotharebasedontheoriginalbookkeepingapproachofHoughton(2003)thatkeepstrackofthe5

carbonstoredinvegetationandsoilsbeforeandafteraland-usechange(transitionsbetween6

variousnaturalvegetationtypes,croplandsandpastures).Literature-basedresponsecurves7

describedecayofvegetationandsoilcarbon,includingtransfertoproductpoolsofdifferent8

lifetimes,aswellascarbonuptakeduetoregrowth.Additionally,itrepresentspermanent9

degradationofforestsbylowervegetationandsoilcarbonstocksforsecondaryascomparedto10

theprimaryforestsandforestmanagementsuchaswoodharvest.11

Thebookkeepingmodelsdonotincludelandecosystems’transientresponsetochangesin12

climate,atmosphericCO2andotherenvironmentalfactors,andthecarbondensitiesarebasedon13

contemporarydatareflectingstableenvironmentalconditionsatthattime.Sincecarbondensities14

remainfixedovertimeinbookkeepingmodels,theadditionalsinkcapacitythatecosystems15

provideinresponsetoCO2-fertilizationandotherenvironmentalchangesisnotcapturedbythese16

models(Pongratzetal.,2014;seeSection2.7.3).17

TheH&NandBLUEmodelsdifferin(1)computationalunits(country-levelvsspatiallyexplicit18

treatmentofland-usechange),(2)processesrepresented(seeTable4a),and(3)carbondensities19

assignedtovegetationandsoilofeachvegetationtype.AnotablechangeofH&Noverthe20

originalapproachbyHoughtonetal.(2003)usedinearlierbudgetestimatesisthatnoshifting21

cultivationorotherback-andforth-transitionsatalevelbelowcountrylevelareincluded.Onlya22

declineinforestareainacountryasindicatedbytheForestResourceAssessmentoftheFAOthat23

exceedstheexpansionofagriculturalareaasindicatedbyFAOisassumedtorepresenta24

concurrentexpansionandabandonmentofcropland.Incontrast,theBLUEmodelincludessub-25

grid-scaletransitionsatthegridlevelbetweenallvegetationtypesasindicatedbytheharmonized26

land-usechangedata(LUH2)dataset(Hurttetal.,inprep.).Furthermore,H&Nassumeconversion27

ofnaturalgrasslandstopasture,whileBLUEallocatespastureproportionallyonallnatural28

vegetationthatexistinagridcell.ThisisonereasonforgenerallyhigheremissionsinBLUE.H&N29

addcarbonemissionsfrompeatburningbasedontheGlobalFireEmissionDatabase(GFED4s;van30


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derWerfetal.(2017)),andpeatdrainage,basedonestimatesbyHooijeretal.(2010)tothe1

outputoftheirbookkeepingmodelforthecountriesofIndonesiaandMalaysia.Peatburningand2

emissionsfromtheorganiclayersofdrainedpeatsoils,whicharenotcapturedbybookkeeping3

methodsdirectly,needtobeincludedtorepresentthesubstantiallylargeremissionsand4

interannualvariabilityduetosynergiesofland-usechangeandclimatevariabilityinSouthEast5

Asia,inparticularduringEl-Niñoevents.SimilarlytoH&N,peatburninganddrainage-related6

emissionsarealsoaddedtotheBLUEestimatebasedonGFED4s(vanderWerfetal.,2017),7

addingthepeatburningfortheGFEDregionofequatorialAsia,andthepeatdrainagefor8

SoutheastAsiafromHooijeretal(2010).9

Thetwobookkeepingestimatesusedinthisstudyalsodifferwithrespecttotheland-cover10

changedatausedtodrivethemodels.H&NbasetheirestimatesdirectlyontheForestResource11

AssessmentoftheFAOwhichprovidesstatisticsonforest-coverchangeandmanagementat12

intervalsoffiveyears(FAO,2015).Thedataisbasedoncountries’self-reporting,someofwhich13

includesatellitedatainmorerecentassessments.Changesinlandcoverotherthanforestsare14

basedonannual,nationalchangesincroplandandpastureareasreportedbytheFAOStatistics15

Division(FAOSTAT,2015).BLUEusestheharmonizedland-usechangedataLUH2(Hurttetal.,in16

prep.)whichdescribeslandcoverchange,alsobasedontheFAOdata,butdownscaledata17

quarter-degreespatialresolution,consideringsub-grid-scaletransitionsbetweenprimaryforest,18

secondaryforest,cropland,pastureandrangeland.ThenewLUH2dataprovidesanewdistinction19

betweenrangelandsandpasture.Thisisimplementedbyassumingrangelandsaretreatedeither20

allaspastures,orallasnaturalvegetation.Thesetwoassumptionsarethenaveragedtoprovide21

theBLUEresultthatisclosesttotheexpectedrealvalue.22

TheestimateofH&Nwasextendedherebyoneyear(to2016)byaddingtheanomalyoftotal23

peatemissions(burninganddrainage)fromGFED4soverthepreviousdecade(2006-2015)tothe24

decadalaverageofthebookkeepingresult.Asmallcorrectiontotheir2015valuewasalsomade25

basedontheupdatedpeatburningofGFED4s.26

2.2.2 DynamicGlobalVegetationModels(DGVMs)27

Land-usechangeCO2emissionshavealsobeenestimatedusinganensembleof12DGVM28

simulations.TheDGVMsaccountfordeforestationandregrowth,themostimportant29

componentsofELUC,buttheydonotrepresentallprocessesresultingdirectlyfromhuman30


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activitiesonland(Table4a).AllDGVMsrepresentprocessesofvegetationgrowthandmortality,1

aswellasdecompositionofdeadorganicmatterassociatedwithnaturalcycles,andincludethe2

vegetationandsoilcarbonresponsetoincreasingatmosphericCO2levelsandtoclimatevariability3

andchange.Somemodelsexplicitlysimulatethecouplingofcarbonandnitrogencyclesand4

accountforatmosphericNdeposition(Table4a).TheDGVMsareindependentfromtheother5

budgettermsexceptfortheiruseofatmosphericCO2concentrationtocalculatethefertilization6

effectofCO2onplantphotosynthesis.7

TheDGVMsusedtheHYDEland-usechangedataset(KleinGoldewijketal.,inpress.;Klein8

Goldewijketal.,2017),whichprovidesannual,half-degree,fractionaldataoncroplandand9

pasture.ThesedataarebasedonannualFAOstatisticsofchangeinagriculturalareaavailableto10

2012(FAOSTAT,2015).Fortheyears2015and2016,theHYDEdatawereextrapolatedbycountry11

forpasturesandcroplandseparatelybasedonthetrendinagriculturalareaovertheprevious512

years.Somemodelsalsouseanupdateofthemorecomprehensiveharmonisedland-usedataset13

(Hurttetal.,2011),thatfurtherincludesfractionaldataonprimaryvegetationandsecondary14

vegetation,aswellasallunderlyingtransitionsbetweenland-usestates(Hurttetal.,inprep.).15

Thisnewdatasetisofquarterdegreefractionalareasoflandusestatesandalltransitions16

betweenthosestates,includinganewwoodharvestreconstruction,newrepresentationof17

shiftingcultivation,croprotations,managementinformationincludingirrigationandfertilizer18

application.Theland-usestatesnowincludetwodifferentpasture/grazingtypes,and5different19

croptypes.WoodharvestpatternsareconstrainedwithLandsatforestlossdata.20

DGVMsimplementland-usechangedifferently(e.g.anincreasedcroplandfractioninagridcell21

caneitherbeattheexpenseofgrasslandorshrubs,orforest,thelatterresultingindeforestation;22

landcoverfractionsofthenon-agriculturallanddifferbetweenmodels).Similarly,model-specific23

assumptionsareappliedtoconvertdeforestedbiomassordeforestedarea,andotherforest24

productpoolsintocarbon,anddifferentchoicesaremaderegardingtheallocationofrangelands25

asnaturalvegetationorpastures.26

TheDGVMmodelrunswereforcedbyeither6hourlyCRU-NCEPorbymonthlyCRUtemperature,27

precipitation,andcloudcoverfields(transformedintoincomingsurfaceradiation)basedon28

observationsandprovidedona0.5°x0.5°gridandupdatedto2016(Harrisetal.,2014;Viovy,29

2016).TheforcingdataincludebothgriddedobservationsofclimateandglobalatmosphericCO2,30


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whichchangeovertime(DlugokenckyandTans,2017),andNdeposition(asusedinsomemodels;1

Table4a).2

TwosetsofsimulationswereperformedwiththeDGVMs.Thefirstforcedinitiallywithhistorical3

changesinlandcoverdistribution,climate,atmosphericCO2concentration,andNdeposition,and4

thesecond,asfurtherdescribedbelow,withatime-invariantpreindustriallandcoverdistribution,5

allowingthemodelstoestimate,bydifferencewiththefirstsimulation,thedynamicevolutionof6

biomassandsoilcarbonpoolsinresponsetoprescribedland-coverchange.ELUCisdiagnosedin7

eachmodelbythedifferencebetweenthesetwosimulations.Weonlyretainmodeloutputswith8

positiveELUCduringthe1990s.UsingthedifferencebetweenthesetwoDGVMsimulationsto9

diagnoseELUCmeanstheDGVMsaccountforthelossofadditionalsinkcapacity(around0.3GtC10

yr-1;seeSection2.7.3),whilethebookkeepingmodelsdonot.11

2.2.3 UncertaintyassessmentforELUC12

DifferencesbetweenthebookkeepingmodelsandDGVMmodelsoriginatefromthreemain13

sources:thelandcoverchangedataset,thedifferentapproachesusedinmodels,andthe14

differentprocessesrepresented(Table4a).WeexaminetheresultsfromtheDGVMmodelsand15

ofthebookkeepingmethodtoassesstheuncertaintyinELUC.16

TheELUCestimatefromtheDGVMsmulti-modelmeanisconsistentwiththeaverageofthe17

emissionsfromthebookkeepingmodels(Table6).Howevertherearelargedifferencesamong18

individualDGVMs(standarddeviationataround0.5-0.6GtCyr-1;Table6),betweenthetwo19

bookkeepingmodels(averageof0.5GtCyr-1),andbetweenthecurrentestimateofH&Nandits20

previousmodelversion(Houghtonetal.,2012)asusedinpastGlobalCarbonBudgets(LeQuéré21

etal.2016;averageof0.3GtCyr-1).Giventhelargespreadinnewestimatesweraiseour22

assessmentofuncertaintyinELUCto±0.7GtCyr-1(from0.5GtCyr-1)asasemi-quantitative23

measureofuncertaintyforannualemissions.Thisreflectsourbestvaluejudgmentthatthereisat24

least68%chance(±1σ)thatthetrueland-usechangeemissionlieswithinthegivenrange,forthe25

rangeofprocessesconsideredhere.Priorto1959,theuncertaintyinELUCwastakenfromthe26

standarddeviationoftheDGVMs.WeassignlowconfidencetotheannualestimatesofELUC27

becauseoftheinconsistenciesamongestimatesandofthedifficultiestoquantifysomeofthe28

processesinDGVMs.29


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2.2.4 Emissionsprojections1

WeprovideanassessmentofELUCfor2017byaddingtheanomalyoffireemissionsin2

deforestationareas,includingthosefrompeatfires,fromGFED4s(vanderWerfetal.,2017)over3

thelastyearavailable.Emissionsareestimatedusingactivefiredata(MCD14ML;Giglioetal.4

(2003)),whichareavailableinnear-realtime,andcorrelationsbetweenthoseandGFED4s5

emissionsforthe2001-2016periodfor12thecorrespondingmonths.EmissionsduringJanuary-6

OctobercovermostofthefiresseasonintheAmazonandSoutheastAsia,wherealargepartof7

theglobaldeforestationtakesplace.8

2.3 GrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentration(GATM)9

2.3.1 GlobalgrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentration10

TherateofgrowthoftheatmosphericCO2concentrationisprovidedbytheUSNationalOceanic11

andAtmosphericAdministrationEarthSystemResearchLaboratory(NOAA/ESRL;Dlugokencky12

andTans,2017),whichisupdatedfromBallantyneetal.(2012).Forthe1959-1980period,the13

globalgrowthrateisbasedonmeasurementsofatmosphericCO2concentrationaveragedfrom14

theMaunaLoaandSouthPolestations,asobservedbytheCO2ProgramatScrippsInstitutionof15

Oceanography(Keelingetal.,1976).Forthe1980-2016timeperiod,theglobalgrowthrateis16

basedontheaverageofmultiplestationsselectedfromthemarineboundarylayersiteswithwell-17

mixedbackgroundair(Ballantyneetal.,2012),afterfittingeachstationwithasmoothedcurveas18

afunctionoftime,andaveragingbylatitudeband(MasarieandTans,1995).Theannualgrowth19

rateisestimatedbyDlugokenckyandTans(2017)fromatmosphericCO2concentrationbytaking20

theaverageofthemostrecentDecember-Januarymonthscorrectedfortheaverageseasonal21

cycleandsubtractingthissameaverageoneyearearlier.Thegrowthrateinunitsofppmyr-1is22

convertedtounitsofGtCyr-1bymultiplyingbyafactorof2.12GtCperppm(Ballantyneetal.,23

2012).24

Theuncertaintyaroundtheannualgrowthratebasedonthemultiplestationsdatasetranges25

between0.11and0.72GtCyr-1,withameanof0.61GtCyr-1for1959-1979and0.19GtCyr-1for26

1980-2016,whenalargersetofstationswereavailable(DlugokenckyandTans,2017).Itisbased27

onthenumberofavailablestations,andthustakesintoaccountboththemeasurementerrors28

anddatagapsateachstation.Thisuncertaintyindecadalchangeiscomputedfromthedifference29

inconcentrationtenyearsapartbasedonameasurementerrorof0.35ppm.Thiserrorisbased30


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onoffsetsbetweenNOAA/ESRLmeasurementsandthoseoftheWorldMeteorological1

OrganizationWorldDataCentreforGreenhouseGases(NOAA/ESRL,2015)forthestartandend2

points(thedecadalchangeuncertaintyisthe 2 0.35!!" ! (10 !")!!assumingthateach3

yearlymeasurementerrorisindependent).4

WeassignahighconfidencetotheannualestimatesofGATMbecausetheyarebasedondirect5

measurementsfrommultipleandconsistentinstrumentsandstationsdistributedaroundthe6

world(Ballantyneetal.,2012).7

Inordertoestimatethetotalcarbonaccumulatedintheatmospheresince1750or1870,weuse8

anatmosphericCO2concentrationof277±3ppmor288±3ppm,respectively,basedonacubic9

splinefittoicecoredata(JoosandSpahni,2008).Theuncertaintyof±3ppm(convertedto±1σ)is10

takendirectlyfromtheIPCC’sassessment(Ciaisetal.,2013).Typicaluncertaintiesinthegrowth11

rateinatmosphericCO2concentrationfromicecoredataareequivalentto±0.1-0.15GtCyr-1as12

evaluatedfromtheLawDomedata(Etheridgeetal.,1996)forindividual20-yearintervalsover13

theperiodfrom1870to1960(BrunoandJoos,1997).14

2.3.2 Growthrateprojection15

WeprovideanassessmentofGATMfor2017basedontheobservedincreaseinatmosphericCO216

concentrationattheMaunaLoastationforJanuarytoSeptember,andmonthlyforecastsfor17

OctobertoDecemberupdatedfromBettsetal.(2016).Theforecastusesastatisticalrelationship18

betweenannualCO2growthrateandseasurfacetemperatures(SSTs)intheNiño3.4region.The19

forecastSSTsfromtheGLOSEAseasonalforecastmodelwasthenusedtoestimatemonthlyCO220

concentrationsatMaunaLoathroughoutthefollowingcalendaryear,assumingastationary21

seasonalcycle.TheforecastCO2concentrationsforJanuarytoAugust2017wereclosetothe22

observations,soupdatingthe2017forecastbysimplyaveragingtheobservedandforecastvalues23

isconsideredjustified.GrowthatMaunaLoaiscloselycorrelatedwiththeglobalgrowth(r=0.95)24

andisusedhereasaproxyforglobalgrowth.25

2.4 OceanCO2sink26

EstimatesoftheglobaloceanCO2sinkSOCEANarefromanensembleofglobalocean27

biogeochemistrymodels(GOBM)thatmeetobservationalconstraintsoverthe1990s(seebelow).28

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thereportedresults,andtoestimatethecumulativeaccumulationofSOCEANoverthepreindustrial1

period.2

2.4.1 Observation-basedestimates3

WeusetheobservationalconstraintsassessedbyIPCCofameanoceanCO2sinkof2.2±0.4GtC4

yr-1forthe1990s(Denmanetal.,2007)toverifythattheGOBMsprovidearealisticassessmentof5

SOCEAN.Thisisbasedonindirectobservationsandtheirspread:ocean/landCO2sinkpartitioning6

fromobservedatmosphericO2/N2concentrationtrends(ManningandKeeling,2006;updatedin7

KeelingandManning2014),anoceanicinversionmethodconstrainedbyoceanbiogeochemistry8

data(MikaloffFletcheretal.,2006),andamethodbasedonpenetrationtimescaleforCFCs9

(McNeiletal.,2003).Thisestimateisconsistentwitharangeofmethods(Wanninkhofetal.,10

2013).AllGOBMsfallwithin90%confidenceoftheobservedrange,or1.6to2.8GtCyr-1forthe11

1990s.12

WeusetwoestimatesoftheoceanCO2sinkanditsvariabilitybasedoninterpolationsof13

measurementsofsurfaceoceanfugacityofCO2(pCO2correctedforthenon-idealbehaviourof14

thegas;Pfeiletal.,2013).WerefertotheseaspCO2-basedfluxestimates.Themeasurementsare15

fromtheSurfaceOceanCO2Atlasversion5,whichisanupdateofversion3(Bakkeretal.,2016)16

andcontainsquality-controlleddatato2016(seedataattributionTableA2).TheSOCATv5were17

mappedusingadata-drivendiagnosticmethod(Rödenbecketal.,2013)andacombinedself-18

organisingmapandfeed-forwardneuralnetwork(Landschützeretal.,2014).TheglobalpCO2-19

basedfluxestimateswereadjustedtoremovethepreindustrialoceansourceofCO2tothe20

atmosphereof0.45GtCyr-1fromriverinputtotheocean(Jacobsonetal.,2007),perour21

definitionofSOCEAN.Severalotherfluxproductsareavailable,buttheyshowlargediscrepancies22

withobservedvariabilitythatneedtoberesolved.HereweusedthetwopCO2-basedflux23

productsthathadthebestfittoobservationsfortheirrepresentationoftropicalandglobal24

variability(Rödenbecketal.,2015).25

WefurtheruseresultsfromtwodiagnosticoceanmodelsofKhatiwalaetal.(2013)andDeVrieset26

al.(2014)toestimatetheanthropogeniccarbonaccumulatedintheoceanpriorto1959.Thetwo27

approachesassumeconstantoceancirculationandbiologicalfluxesoverthepreindustrialperiod,28

withSOCEANestimatedasaresponseinthechangeinatmosphericCO2concentrationcalibratedto29

observations.Theuncertaintyincumulativeuptakeof±20GtC(convertedto±1σ)istakendirectly30


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fromtheIPCC’sreviewoftheliterature(Rheinetal.,2013),orabout±30%fortheannualvalues1

(Khatiwalaetal.,2009).2

2.4.2 GlobalOceanBiogeochemistryModels(GOBM)3

TheoceanCO2sinkfor1959-2016isestimatedusingeightGOBM(Table4b)thatmeet4

observationalconstraintsforthemeanoceansinkinthe1990s.TheGOBMrepresentthephysical,5

chemicalandbiologicalprocessesthatinfluencethesurfaceoceanconcentrationofCO2andthus6

theair-seaCO2flux.TheGOBMareforcedbymeteorologicalreanalysisandatmosphericCO27

concentrationdataavailablefortheentiretimeperiod,andmostlydifferinthesourceofthe8

atmosphericforcingdata,spinupstrategies,andintheresolutionoftheoceanicphysical9

processes(Table4b).GOBMsdonotincludetheeffectsofanthropogenicchangesinnutrient10

supply,whichcouldleadtoanincreaseoftheoceansinkofuptoabout0.3GtCyr-1overthe11

industrialperiod(Duceetal.,2008).Theyalsodonotincludetheperturbationassociatedwith12

changesinriverorganiccarbon,whichisdiscussedSect.2.7.13

TheoceanCO2sinkforeachGOBMisnolongernormalisedtotheobservationsasinprevious14

globalcarbonbudgets(e.g.LeQuéréetal.2016).Thenormalisationwasmostlyintendedto15

ensureSLANDhadarealisticmeanvalueasitwaspreviouslyestimatedfromthebudgetresidual.16

Withtheintroductionofthebudgetresidual(Eq.1)alltermscanbeestimatedindependently.17

RathertheoceanicobservationsareusedintheselectionoftheGOBM,byusingonlytheGOBM18

thatproduceanoceanicCO2sinkoverthe1990sconsistentwithobservations,asexplained19

above.20

2.4.3 UncertaintyassessmentforSOCEAN21

TheuncertaintyaroundthemeanoceansinkofanthropogenicCO2wasquantifiedbyDenmanet22

al.(2007)forthe1990s(seeSect.2.4.1).Toquantifytheuncertaintyaroundannualvalues,we23

examinethestandarddeviationoftheGOBMensemble,whichaveragesbetween0.2and0.3GtC24

yr-1during1959-2017.WeestimatethattheuncertaintyintheannualoceanCO2sinkisabout±25

0.5GtCyr-1fromthecombineduncertaintyofthemeanfluxbasedonobservationsof±0.4GtCyr-26

1andthestandarddeviationacrossGOBMsofupto±0.3GtCyr-1,reflectingboththeuncertainty27

inthemeansinkfromobservationsduringthe1990’s(Denmanetal.,2007;Section2.4.1)andin28

theinterannualvariabilityasassessedbyGOBMs.29


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Weexaminetheconsistencybetweenthevariabilityofthemodel-basedandthepCO2-basedflux1

productstoassessconfidenceinSOCEAN.Theinterannualvariabilityoftheoceanfluxes(quantified2

asthestandarddeviation)ofthetwopCO2-basedproductsfor1986-2016(wheretheyoverlap)is3

±0.35GtCyr-1(Rödenbecketal.,2014)and±0.36GtCyr-1(Landschützeretal.,2015),compared4

to±0.27GtCyr-1forthenormalisedGOBMensemble.Thestandarddeviationincludesa5

componentoftrendanddecadalvariabilityinadditiontointerannualvariability,andtheirrelative6

influencediffersacrossestimates.TheestimatesgenerallyproduceahigheroceanCO2sinkduring7

strongElNiñoevents.TheannualpCO2-basedfluxproductscorrelatewiththeoceanCO2sink8

estimatedherewithacorrelationofr=0.75(0.49to0.84forindividualGOBMs),andr=0.789

(0.46to0.80)forthepCO2-basedfluxproductsofRödenbecketal.(2014)andLandschützeretal.10

(2015),respectively(simplelinearregression),withtheirmutualcorrelationat0.70.The11

agreementisbetterfordecadalvariabilitythanforinterannualvariability.Theuseofannualdata12

forthecorrelationmayreducethestrengthoftherelationshipbecausethedominantsourceof13

variabilityassociatedwithElNiñoeventsislessthanoneyear.Weassessamediumconfidence14

leveltotheannualoceanCO2sinkanditsuncertaintybecauseitisfbasedonmultiplelinesof15

evidence,andtheresultsareconsistentinthattheinterannualvariabilityintheGOBMsanddata-16

basedestimatesareallgenerallysmallcomparedtothevariabilityinthegrowthrateof17

atmosphericCO2concentration.18

2.5 TerrestrialCO2sink19

Theterrestriallandsink(SLAND)isthoughttobeduetothecombinedeffectsoffertilisationby20

risingatmosphericCO2andNdepositiononplantgrowth,aswellastheeffectsofclimatechange21

suchasthelengtheningofthegrowingseasoninnortherntemperateandborealareas.SLANDdoes22

notincludegrosslandsinksdirectlyresultingfromland-usechange(e.g.regrowthofvegetation)23

asthesearepartofthenetlanduseflux(ELUC),althoughsystemboundariesmakeitdifficultto24

attributeexactlyCO2fluxesonlandbetweenSLANDandELUC(Erbetal.,2013).25

Newtothe2017GlobalCarbonBudget,SLANDisestimatedfromthemulti-modelmeanofthe26

DGVMs(Table4a).AsdescribedinSect.2.2.3,DGVMsimulationsincludeallclimatevariabilityand27

CO2effectsoverland.TheDGVMsdonotincludetheperturbationassociatedwithchangesin28

riverorganiccarbon,whichisdiscussedSect.2.7.WeapplythreecriteriaforminimumDGVM29

realismbyincludingonlythoseDGVMswith(1)steadystateafterspinup,(2)whereavailable,net30

landfluxes(SLAND–ELUC)thatisacarbonsinkoverthe1990sbetween-0.3and2.3GtCyr-1,within31


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90%confidenceofconstraintsbyglobalatmosphericandoceanicobservations(Keelingand1

Manning,2014;Wanninkhofetal.,2013),and(3)globalELUCthatisacarbonsourceoverthe2

1990s.3

ThestandarddeviationoftheannualCO2sinkacrosstheDGVMsaveragesto±0.8GtCyr-1forthe4

period1959to2016.WeattachamediumconfidenceleveltotheannuallandCO2sinkandits5

uncertaintybecausetheestimatesfromtheresidualbudgetandaveragedDGVMsmatchwell6

withintheirrespectiveuncertainties(Table6).7

2.6 Theatmosphericperspective8

Theworld-widenetworkofatmosphericmeasurementscanbeusedwithatmosphericinversion9

methodstoconstrainthelocationofthecombinedtotalsurfaceCO2fluxesfromallsources,10

includingfossilandland-usechangeemissionsandlandandoceanCO2fluxes.Theinversions11

assumeEFFtobewellknown,andtheysolveforthespatialandtemporaldistributionoflandand12

oceanfluxesfromtheresidualgradientsofCO2betweenstationsthatarenotexplainedby13

emissions.14

Threeatmosphericinversions(Table4c)usedatmosphericCO2datatotheendof2016(including15

preliminaryvaluesinsomecases)toinferthespatio-temporalCO2fluxfield.Wefocushereonthe16

largestandmostconsistentsourcesofinformation(namelythetotalCO2fluxoverlandregions,17

andthedistributionofthetotallandandoceanCO2fluxesforthemid-highlatitudenorthern18

hemisphere(30°N-90°N),Tropics(30°S-30°N)andmid-highlatituderegionofthesouthern19

hemisphere(30°S-90°S)),andusetheseestimatestocommentontheconsistencyacrossvarious20

datastreamsandprocess-basedestimates.21

Atmosphericinversions22

ThethreeinversionsystemsusedinthisreleasearetheCarbonTrackerEurope(CTE;vanderLaan-23

Luijkxetal.,2017),theJenaCarboScope(Rödenbeck,2005),andCAMS(Chevallieretal.,2005).24

SeeTable4cforversionnumbers.ThethreeinversionsarebasedonthesameBayesianinversion25

principlesthatinterpretthesame,forthemostpart,observedtimeseries(orsubsetsthereof),26

butusedifferentmethodologies(Table4c).Thesedifferencesmainlyconcerntheselectionof27

atmosphericCO2data,theusedpriorfluxes,spatialbreakdown(i.e.gridsize),assumed28

correlationstructures,andmathematicalapproach.Thedetailsoftheseapproachesare29


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documentedextensivelyinthereferencesprovidedabove.Eachsystemusesadifferenttransport1

model,whichwasdemonstratedtobeadrivingfactorbehinddifferencesinatmospheric-based2

fluxestimates,andspecificallytheirdistributionacrosslatitudinalbands(Stephensetal.,2007).3

ThethreeinversionsuseatmosphericCO2observationsfromvariousflaskandinsitunetworks,as4

detailedinTable4c.TheyprescribeglobalEFF,whichisscaledtothepresentstudyforCAMSand5

CTE,whileCarboScopeusesCDIACextendedafter2013usingtheemissiongrowthrateofthe6

presentstudy.Inversionresultsforthesumofnaturaloceanandlandfluxes(Fig.8)aremore7

constrainedintheNorthernhemisphere(NH)thanintheTropics,becauseofthehigher8

measurementstationsdensityintheNH.Resultsfromatmosphericinversions,similartothe9

pCO2-basedoceanfluxproducts,needtobecorrectedfortheriverfluxes.Theatmospheric10

inversionsprovidenewinformationontheregionaldistributionoffluxes.11

2.7 Processesnotincludedintheglobalcarbonbudget12

ThecontributionofanthropogenicCOandCH4totheglobalcarbonbudgethasbeenpartly13

neglectedinEq.1andisdescribedinSect.2.7.1.Thecontributionofanthropogenicchangesin14

riverfluxesisconceptuallyincludedinEq.1inSOCEANandinSLAND,butitisnotrepresentedinthe15

processmodelsusedtoquantifythesefluxes.ThiseffectisdiscussedinSect.2.7.2.Similarly,the16

lossofadditionalsinkcapacityfromreducedforestcoverismissinginthecombinationof17

approachedusedheretoestimatebothlandfluxes(ELUCandSLAND)anditspotentialeffectis18

discussedandquantifiedinSect.2.7.3.19

2.7.1 ContributionofanthropogenicCOandCH4totheglobalcarbonbudget20

AnthropogenicemissionsofCOandCH4totheatmosphereareeventuallyoxidizedtoCO2and21

thusarepartoftheglobalcarbonbudget.ThesecontributionsareomittedinEq.(1),butan22

attemptismadeinthissectiontoestimatetheirmagnitude,andidentifythesourcesof23

uncertainty.AnthropogenicCOemissionsarefromincompletefossilfuelandbiofuelburningand24

deforestationfires.ThemainanthropogenicemissionsoffossilCH4thatmatterfortheglobal25

carbonbudgetarethefugitiveemissionsofcoal,oilandgasupstreamsectors(seebelow).These26

emissionsofCOandCH4contributeanetadditionoffossilcarbontotheatmosphere.27

InourestimateofEFFweassumed(Sect.2.1.1)thatallthefuelburnedisemittedasCO2,thusCO28

anthropogenicemissionsandtheiratmosphericoxidationintoCO2withinafewmonthsare29


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alreadycountedimplicitlyinEFFandshouldnotbecountedtwice(sameforELUCand1

anthropogenicCOemissionsbydeforestationfires).AnthropogenicemissionsoffossilCH4arenot2

includedinEFF,becausethesefugitiveemissionsarenotincludedinthefuelinventories.Yetthey3

contributetotheannualCO2growthrateafterCH4getsoxidizedintoCO2.Anthropogenic4

emissionsoffossilCH4represent15%oftotalCH4emissions(Kirschkeetal.,2013)thatis0.0615

GtCyr-1forthepastdecade.Assumingsteadystate,theseemissionsareallconvertedtoCO2by6

OHoxidation,andthusexplain0.06GtCyr-1oftheglobalCO2growthrateinthepastdecade,or7

0.07-0.1GtCyr-1usingthehigherCH4emissionsreportedrecently(Schwietzkeetal.,2016).8

OtheranthropogenicchangesinthesourcesofCOandCH4fromwildfires,biomass,wetlands,9

ruminantsorpermafrostchangesaresimilarlyassumedtohaveasmalleffectontheCO2growth10

rate.11

2.7.2 Anthropogeniccarbonfluxesinthelandtooceanaquaticcontinuum 12

Theapproachusedtodeterminetheglobalcarbonbudgetreferstothemean,variations,and13

trendsintheperturbationofCO2intheatmosphere,referencedtothepreindustrialera.Carbonis14

continuouslydisplacedfromthelandtotheoceanthroughtheland-oceanaquaticcontinuum15

(LOAC)comprisingfreshwaters,estuariesandcoastalareas(Baueretal.,2013;Regnieretal.,16

2013).Asignificantfractionofthislateralcarbonfluxisentirely‘natural’andisthusasteadystate17

componentofthepreindustrialcarboncycle.Weaccountforthispreindustrialfluxwhere18

appropriateinourstudy.However,changesinenvironmentalconditionsandlandusechange19

havecausedanincreaseinthelateraltransportofcarbonintotheLOAC–aperturbationthatis20

relevantfortheglobalcarbonbudgetpresentedhere.21

TheresultsoftheanalysisofRegnieretal.(2013)canbesummarizedintwopointsofrelevance22

fortheanthropogenicCO2budget.First,theanthropogenicperturbationhasincreasedthe23

organiccarbonexportfromterrestrialecosystemstothehydrosphereatarateof1.0±0.5GtCyr-24

1,mainlyowingtoenhancedcarbonexportfromsoils.Second,thisexportedanthropogenic25

carbonispartlyrespiredthroughtheLOAC,partlysequesteredinsedimentsalongtheLOACand26

toalesserextent,transferredintheopenoceanwhereitmayaccumulate.Theincreaseinstorage27

ofland-derivedorganiccarbonintheLOACandopenoceancombinedisestimatedbyRegnieret28

al.(2013)at0.65±0.35GtCyr-1.WedonotattempttoincorporatethechangesinLOACinour29

study.30


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TheinclusionoffreshwaterfluxesofanthropogenicCO2affectstheestimatesof,andpartitioning1

between,SLANDandSOCEANinEq.(1)incomplementaryways,butdoesnotaffecttheotherterms.2

ThiseffectisnotincludedintheGOBMsandDGVMsusedinourglobalcarbonbudgetanalysis3

presentedhere.4

2.7.3 Lossofadditionalsinkcapacity 5

TheDGVMsimulationsnowusedtoestimateSLANDarecarriedoutwithafixedpreindustrialland-6

cover.Hence,theyoverestimatethelandsinkbyignoringhistoricalchangesinvegetationcover7

duetolanduseandhowthisaffectedtheglobalterrestrialbiosphere’scapacitytoremoveCO28

fromtheatmosphere.Historicalland-coverchangewasdominatedbytransitionsfromvegetation9

typesthatcanprovidealargesinkperareaunit(typically,forests)tootherslessefficientin10

removingCO2fromtheatmosphere(typically,croplands).Theresultantdecreaseinlandsink,11

calledthe‘lossofsinkcapacity’,iscalculatedasthedifferencebetweentheactuallandsinkunder12

changingland-coverandthecounter-factuallandsinkunderpreindustrialland-cover.13

Here,weprovideaquantitativeestimateofthistermtobeusedinthediscussion.Ourestimate14

usesthecompactEarthsystemmodelOSCAR(Gasseretal.,2017)whoselandcarboncycle15

componentisdesignedtoemulatethebehaviourofTRENDYandCMIP5complexmodels.Weuse16

OSCARv2.2.1(anupdateofv2.2inwhichminorchanges)inaprobabilisticsetupidenticaltothe17

oneofArnethetal.(2017)butwithaMonteCarloensembleof2000simulations.Foreach,we18

calculateseparatelySLANDandthelossofadditionalsinkcapacity.Wethenconstraintheensemble19

byweightingeachmembertoobtainadistributionofcumulativeSLANDover1850-2005closeto20

theDGVMsusedhere.Fromthisensemble,weestimatealossofadditionalsinkcapacityof0.4±21

0.3GtCyr-1onaverageover2005-2014,andbyextrapolationof20±15GtCaccumulated22

between1870and2016.23

3 Results24

3.1 Globalcarbonbudgetmeanandvariabilityfor1959–201625

Theglobalcarbonbudgetaveragedoverthelasthalf-centuryisshowninFig.3.Forthistime26

period,82%ofthetotalemissions(EFF+ELUC)werecausedbyfossilfuelsandindustry,and18%by27

land-usechange.Thetotalemissionswerepartitionedamongtheatmosphere(45%),ocean(23%)28

andland(32%).Allcomponentsexceptland-usechangeemissionshavegrownsince1959,with29


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importantinterannualvariabilityinthegrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentrationandinthe1

landCO2sink(Fig.4),andsomedecadalvariabilityinallterms(Table7).2

3.1.1 CO2emissions 3

GlobalCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustryhaveincreasedeverydecadefromanaverage4

of3.1±0.2GtCyr-1inthe1960stoanaverageof9.4±0.5GtCyr-1during2007-2016(Table7and5

Fig.5).Thegrowthrateintheseemissionsdecreasedbetweenthe1960sandthe1990s,from6

4.5%yr-1inthe1960s(1960-1969),2.8%yr-1inthe1970s(1970-1979),1.9%yr-1inthe1980s7

(1980-1989),andto1.1%yr-1inthe1990s(1990-1999).Afterthisperiod,thegrowthratebegan8

increasingagaininthe2000satanaveragegrowthrateof3.3%yr-1,decreasingto1.8%yr-1for9

thelastdecade(2007-2016),andto+0.4%yr-1during2014-2016. 10

Incontrast,CO2emissionsfromland-usechangehaveremainedrelativelyconstantataround1.311

±0.7GtCyr-1overthepasthalf-century,inagreementwiththeDGVMensembleofmodels.12

However,thereisnoagreementonthetrendoverthefullperiod,withtwobookkeepingmodels13

suggestingoppositetrendsandnocoherenceamongDGVMs(Fig.6).14

3.1.2 Partitioningamongtheatmosphere,oceanandland15

ThegrowthrateinatmosphericCO2levelincreasedfrom1.7±0.1GtCyr-1inthe1960sto4.7±16

0.1GtCyr-1during2007-2016withimportantdecadalvariations(Table7).Bothoceanandland17

CO2sinksincreasedroughlyinlinewiththeatmosphericincrease,butwithsignificantdecadal18

variabilityonland(Table7),andpossiblyintheocean(Fig.7).19

TheoceanCO2sinkincreasedfrom1.0±0.5GtCyr-1inthe1960sto2.4±0.5GtCyr-1during2007-20

2016,withinterannualvariationsoftheorderofafewtenthsofGtCyr-1generallyshowingan21

increasedoceansinkduringlargeElNiñoevents(i.e.1997-1998)(Fig.7;Rödenbecketal.,2014).22

Notetheloweroceansinkestimatecomparedtopreviousglobalcarbonbudgetreleasesisdueto23

thefactthatoceanmodelsarenolongernormalisedtoobservations.Althoughthereissome24

coherenceamongtheGOBMsandpCO2-basedfluxproductsregardingthemean,thereispoor25

agreementforinterannualvariabilityandtheoceanmodelsunderestimatedecadalvariability26

(Sect.2.4.3andFig.7,alsoseenewdata-baseddecadalestimateofDeVriesetal.(2017)).27

TheterrestrialCO2sinkincreasedfrom1.4±0.7GtCyr-1inthe1960sto3.0±0.8GtCyr-1during28

2007-2016,withimportantinterannualvariationsofupto2GtCyr-1generallyshowinga29


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decreasedlandsinkduringElNiñoevents,overcompensatingtheincreaseinoceansinkand1

responsiblefortheenhancedgrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentrationduringElNiñoevents2

(Fig.6).ThelargerlandCO2sinkduring2007-2016comparedtothe1960sisreproducedbyallthe3

DGVMsinresponsetocombinedatmosphericCO2increase,climateandvariability,consistent4

withconstraintsfromtheotherbudgetterms(Table6).5

ThetotalCO2fluxesonland(SLAND–ELUC)constrainedbytheatmosphericinversionsshowin6

generalverygoodagreementwiththeglobalbudgetestimate,asexpectedgiventhestrong7

constrainsofGATMandthesmallrelativeuncertaintyassumedonSOCEANandEFFbyinversions.The8

totallandfluxisofsimilarmagnitudeforthedecadalaverage,withestimatesfor2007-2016from9

thethreeinversionsof1.8,1.4and2.3GtCyr-1comparedto1.7±0.7GtCyr-1fromtheDGVMs10

and2.3±0.7GtCyr-1forthetotalfluxcomputedwiththecarbonbudgetconstraints(Table6).11

3.1.3 Budgetimbalance12

Thecarbonbudgetimbalance(BIM;Eq.1)quantifiesthemismatchbetweentheestimatedtotal13

emissionsandtheestimatedchangesintheatmosphere,landandoceanreservoirs.Themean14

budgetimbalancefrom1959to2016isverysmall(0.07GtCyr-1)andshowsnotrendoverthefull15

timeseries.Althoughtheprocessmodels(GOBMsandDGVMs)havebeenselectedtomatch16

observationalconstraintsinthe1990s,theyareindependentoftheestimatedemissionsfrom17

fossilfuelsandindustry,andthereforethenear-zeromeanandtrendinthebudgetimbalanceis18

anindirectevidenceofacoherentcommunityunderstandingoftheemissionsandtheir19

partitioningonthosetimescales(Fig.4).However,thebudgetimbalanceshowssubstantial20

variabilityoftheorderof±1GtCyr-1,particularlyoversemi-decadaltimescales,althoughmostof21

thevariabilityiswithintheuncertaintyoftheestimates.Theimbalanceduringthe1960s,early22

1990s,andinthelastdecade,suggestthateithertheemissionswereoverestimatedorthesinks23

wereunderestimatedduringtheseperiods.Thereverseistrueforthe1970sandaround1995-24

2000(Fig.3).25

Wecannotattributethecauseofthevariabilityinthebudgetimbalancewithouranalysis,onlyto26

notethatthebudgetimbalanceisunlikelytobeexplainedbyerrorsorbiasesintheemissions27

alonebecauseofitslargesemi-decadalvariabilitycomponent,avariabilitythatisuntypicalof28

emissions(Fig.4).ErrorsinSLANDandSOCEANaremorelikelytobethemaincauseforthebudget29

imbalance.Forexample,underestimationoftheSLANDbyDGVMshasbeenreportedfollowingthe30


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eruptionofMountPinatuboin1991possiblyduetomissingresponsestochangesindiffuse1

radiation(Mercadoetal.,2009),andDGVMsaresuspectedtooverestimatethelandsinkin2

responsetothewetdecadeofthe1970s(Sitchetal.,2003).Decadalandsemi-decadalvariability3

intheoceansinkhasbeenalsoreportedrecently(DeVriesetal.,2017;Landschützeretal.,2015),4

withthepCO2-basedoceanfluxproductssuggestingasmallerthanexpectedoceanCO2sinkinthe5

1990sandalargerthanexpectedsinkinthe2000s(Fig.7),possiblycausedbychangesinocean6

circulation(DeVriesetal.,2017)notcapturedincoarseresolutionGOBMsusedhere(Dufouret7

al.,2013).8

3.1.4 Regionaldistribution 9

Fig8showsthepartitioningofthetotalsurfacefluxesexcludingemissionsfromfossilfuelsand10

industry(SLAND+SOCEAN–ELUC)accordingtothemulti-modelaverageoftheprocessmodelsinthe11

oceanandonland(GOBMsandDGVMs),andtothethreeatmosphericinversions.Thetotal12

surfacefluxesprovideinformationontheregionaldistributionofthosefluxesbylatitudebands13

(Fig.8).TheglobalmeanCO2fluxesfromprocessmodelsfor2007-2016is4.1±1.0GtCyr-1.Thisis14

comparabletothefluxesof4.6±0.5GtCyr-1inferredfromtheremainderofthecarbonbudget15

(EFF–GATMinEquation1;Table7)withintheirrespectiveuncertainties.ThetotalCO2fluxesfrom16

thethreeinversionsrangebetween4.1and5.0GtCyr-1,consistentwiththecarbonbudgetas17

expectedfromtheconstraintsontheinversions.18

IntheSouth(southof30°S),theatmosphericinversionsandprocessmodelsallsuggestaCO2sink19

for2007-2016around1.3-1.4GtCyr-1(Fig.8),althoughinterannualtodecadalvariabilityisnot20

fullyconsistentacrossmethods.TheinterannualvariabilityintheSouthislowbecauseofthe21

dominanceofoceanareawithlowvariabilitycomparedtolandareas.22

IntheTropics(30°S-30°N),boththeatmosphericinversionsandprocessmodelssuggestthe23

carbonbalanceinthisregionisclosetoneutralonaverageoverthepastdecade,withfluxesfor24

2007-2016rangingbetween–0.5and+0.5GtCyr-1.Boththeprocessmodelsandtheinversions25

consistentlyallocatemoreyear-to-yearvariabilityofCO2fluxestotheTropicscomparedtothe26

North(northof30°N;Fig.8),thisvariabilitybeingdominatedbylandfluxes.27

IntheNorth(northof30°N),theinversionsandprocessmodelsarenotinagreementonthe28

magnitudeoftheCO2sink,withtheensemblemeanoftheprocessmodelssuggestingatotal29


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northernhemispheresinkfor2007-2016of2.3±0.6GtCyr-1,belowtheestimatesfromthethree1

inversionsthatestimateasinkof2.7,3.0and4.1GtCyr-1(Fig.8).Themeandifferencecanonly2

partlybeexplainedbytheinfluenceofriverfluxes,whichisseenbytheinversionsbutnot3

includedintheprocessmodels;thisfluxintheNorthernHemispherewouldbelessthan0.45GtC4

yr-1becauseonlytheanthropogeniccontributiontoriverfluxesneedstobeaccountedfor.The5

CTEandJenaCarboScopeinversionsarewithintheonestandarddeviationoftheprocessmodels6

forthemeansinkduringtheiroverlapperiod,whiletheCAMSinversiongivesahighersinkinthe7

Norththantheprocessmodels,andacorrespondinglyhighersourceintheTropics.8

DifferencesbetweenCTE,CAMS,andJenaCarboScopemayberelatede.g.todifferencesin9

interhemisphericmixingtimeoftheirtransportmodels,andotherinversionsettings(Table4c).10

Separateanalysishasshownthattheinfluenceofthechosenpriorlandandoceanfluxesisminor11

comparedtootheraspectsofeachinversion.Incomparisontothepreviousglobalcarbonbudget12

publication,thefossilfuelinputsforCarboScopechangedtoloweremissionsintheNorth13

comparedtoCTEandCAMS,resultinginasmallerNorthernsinkforCarboScopecomparedtothe14

previousestimate.DifferencesbetweenthemeanfluxesofCAMSintheNorthandtheensemble15

ofprocessmodelscannotbesimplyexplained.Theycouldeitherreflectabiasinthisinversionor16

missingprocessesorbiasesintheprocessmodels,suchasthelackofadequateparameterizations17

forforestmanagementintheNorthandforforestdegradationemissionsinTropicsforthe18

DGVMs.TheestimatedcontributionoftheNorthanditsuncertaintyfromprocessmodelsis19

sensitivebothtotheensembleofprocessmodelsusedandtothespecificsofeachinversion.20

3.2 Globalcarbonbudgetforthelastdecade(2007–2016)21

Theglobalcarbonbudgetaveragedoverthelastdecade(2007-2016)isshowninFig.2.Forthis22

timeperiod,88%ofthetotalemissions(EFF+ELUC)werefromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF),and23

12%fromland-usechange(ELUC).Thetotalemissionswerepartitionedamongtheatmosphere24

(44%),ocean(22%)andland(28%),witharemainingunattributedbudgetimbalance(5%).25

3.2.1 CO2emissions26

GlobalCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustrygrewatarateof1.8%yr-1forthelastdecade27

(2007-2016),slowingdownto+0.4%yr-1during2014-2016.China’semissionsincreasedby+3.8%28

yr-1onaverage(increasingby+1.7GtCyr-1duringthe10-yearperiod)dominatingtheglobal29


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trends,followedbyIndia’semissionsincreaseby+5.8%yr-1(increasingby+0.30GtCyr-1),while1

emissionsdecreasedinEU28by2.2%yr-1(decreasingby-0.23GtCyr-1),andintheUSAby1.0%yr-2

1(decreasingby-0.19GtCyr-1).Inthepastdecade,emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry3

decreasedsignificantly(atthe95%level)in26countries.22ofthesecountrieshadpositive4

growthinGDPoverthesametimeperiod,representing20%ofglobalemissions(Austria,Belgium,5

Bulgaria,CzechRepublic,Denmark,France,Hungary,Ireland,Latvia,Lithuania,Luxembourg,6

Macedonia,Malta,Netherlands,Poland,Romania,Serbia,Slovakia,Sweden,Switzerland,United7

Kingdom,USA).8

Incontrast,thereisnoapparenttrendinCO2emissionsfromland-usechange(Fig.6),thoughthe9

dataisveryuncertain.10

3.2.2 Partitioningamongtheatmosphere,oceanandland11

ThegrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentrationwasinitiallyconstantandthenincreased12

duringthelaterpartofthedecade2007-2016,reflectingasimilarconstantlevelfollowedbya13

decreaseinthelandsink,albeitwithlargeinterannualvariability(Fig.4).Duringthesameperiod,14

theoceanCO2sinkappearstohaveintensified,aneffectwhichisparticularlyapparentinthe15

pCO2-basedfluxproducts(Fig.7)andisthoughttooriginateatleastinpartintheSouthernOcean16

(Landschützeretal.,2015).17

3.2.3 Budgetimbalance18

Thebudgetimbalancewas0.6GtCyr-1onaverageover2007-2016.Althoughtheuncertaintiesare19

largeineachterm,thesustainedimbalanceoveradecadesuggestsanoverestimationofthe20

emissionsand/oranunderestimationofthesinks.Suchalargeimbalanceisunlikelytooriginate21

fromtheemissionsalonebecauseitwouldindicatesustainedbiasinemissionsovera10-year22

periodthatisaslargeasthe1-sigmauncertainty.Anorigininthelandand/oroceansinkismore23

likely,giventhelargevariabilityofthelandsinkandthesuspectedunderestimationofdecadal24

variabilityintheoceansink.25


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3.3 Globalcarbonbudgetforyear20161


PreliminaryglobalCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustrybasedonBPenergystatisticsare3

foremissionsremainingnearlyconstantbetween2015and2016at9.9±0.5GtCin2016(Fig.5),4

distributedamongcoal(40%),oil(34%),gas(19%),cement(5.6%)andgasflaring(0.7%).5

Comparedtothepreviousyear,emissionsfromcoaldecreasedby–1.7%,whileemissionsfrom6

oil,gas,andcementincreasedby1.5%,1.5%,and1.0%,respectively.Allgrowthratespresented7

areadjustedforleapyear,unlessstatedotherwise.8

Emissionsin2016were0.2%higherthanin2015,continuingthelowgrowthtrendsobservedin9

2014and2015.ThisgrowthrateisasprojectedinLeQuéréetal.(2016)basedonnational10

emissionsprojectionsforChinaandtheUSA,andprojectionsofgrossdomesticproductcorrected11

forIFFtrendsfortherestoftheworld.Thespecificprojectionfor2016forChinamadelastyearof12

–0.5%(rangeof–3.8%to+1.3%)isveryclosetotherealisedgrowthrateof–0.3%.Similarly,the13

projectedgrowthfortheUSof–1.7%(rangeof–4.0%to+0.6%)isveryclosetotherealised14

growthrateof–2.1%,andtheprojectedgrowthfortherestoftheworld(ROW)of+1.0%(range15

of–0.4%to2.5%)matchestherealisedrateof1.3%.16

In2016,thelargestabsolutecontributionstoglobalCO2emissionswerefromChina(28%),the17

USA(15%),theEU(28memberstates;10%),andIndia(6.7%).Thepercentagesarethefractionof18

theglobalemissionsincludingbunkerfuels(3.1%).Thesefourregionsaccountfor59%ofglobal19

CO2emissions.Growthratesforthesecountriesfrom2015to2016were–0.3%(China),–2.1%20

(USA),–0.3%(EU28),and+4.5%(India).Theper-capitaCO2emissionsin2016were1.1tCperson-121

yr-1fortheglobe,andwere4.5(USA),2.0(China),1.9(EU28)and0.5(India)tCperson-1yr-1forthe22

fourhighestemittingcountries(Fig.5e).23

TerritorialemissionsinAnnexBcountries(developedcountriesaspertheKyotoProtocolwhich24

initiallyhadbindingmitigationtargets)decreasedby–0.2%yr-1onaverageduring1990-2015.25

Trendsobservedforconsumptionemissionswerelessmonotonic,with0.7%yr-1growthover26

1990-2007anda–1.2%yr-1decreaseover2007-2015(Fig.5c).Innon-AnnexBcountries27

(emergingeconomiesandlessdevelopedcountriesaspertheKyotoProtocolwithnobinding28

mitigationcommitments)territorialemissionsgrewat4.6%yr-1during1990-2015,while29

consumptionemissionsgrewat4.5%yr-1.In1990,65%ofglobalterritorialemissionswere30


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emittedinAnnexBcountries(32%innon-AnnexB,and2%inbunkerfuelsusedforinternational1

shippingandaviation),whilein2015thishadreducedto37%(60%innon-AnnexB,and3%in2

bunkerfuels).Forconsumptionemissions,thissplitwas68%in1990and42%in2015(32%to3

58%innon-AnnexB).Thedifferencebetweenterritorialandconsumptionemissions(thenet4

emissiontransferviainternationaltrade)fromnon-AnnexBtoAnnexBcountrieshasincreased5

fromnearzeroin1990to0.3GtCyr-1around2005andremainedrelativelystableafterwardsuntil6

thelastyearavailable(2015;Fig.5).Theincreaseinnetemissiontransfersof0.28GtCyr-17

between1990and2015compareswiththeemissionreductionof0.5GtCyr-1inAnnexB8

countries.Theseresultsshowtheimportanceofnetemissiontransferviainternationaltradefrom9

non-AnnexBtoAnnexBcountries,andthestabilisationofemissionstransferwhenaveragedover10

AnnexBcountriesduringthepastdecade.In2015,thebiggestemittersfromaconsumption11

perspectivewereChina(23%oftheglobaltotal),USA(16%),EU28(12%),andIndia(6%).12

TheglobalCO2emissionsfromland-usechangeareestimatedas1.3±0.5GtCin2016,asforthe13

previousdecadebutwithlowconfidenceintheannualchange.14

3.3.2 Partitioningamongtheatmosphere,oceanandland 15

ThegrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentrationwas6.1±0.2GtCin2016(2.89±0.09ppm;Fig.16

4;DlugokenckyandTans,2017).Thisiswellabovethe2007-2016averageof4.7±0.1GtCyr-1and17

reflectsthelargeinterannualvariabilityinthegrowthrateofatmosphericCO2concentration18

associatedwithElNiñoandLaNiñaevents.19

TheestimatedoceanCO2sinkwas2.6±0.5GtCyr-1in2016,onlymarginallyabove2015according20

totheaverageoftheoceanmodelsbutwithlargedifferencesamongestimates(Fig.7).21

TheterrestrialCO2sinkfromthemodelensemblewas2.7±1.0GtCin2016,nearthedecadal22

average(Fig.4)andconsistentwithconstraintsfromtherestofthebudget(Table6).23

Thebudgetimbalancewas–0.3GtCin2016,indicatingasmalloverestimationoftheemissions24

and/orunderestimationofthesinkforthatyear,withlargeuncertainties.25

3.4 Globalcarbonbudgetprojectionforyear201726


Emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF)for2017areprojectedtoincreaseby+2.0%(rangeof28

0.8%to+3.0%;Table8;(Jacksonetal.,2017;Petersetal.,2017)).Ourmethodcontainsseveral29


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assumptionsthatcouldinfluencetheestimatebeyondthegivenrange,andassuch,ithasan1

indicativevalueonly.Withinthegivenassumptions,globalemissionswouldincreaseto10.0±0.52

GtC(36.8±1.8GtCO2)in2017.3

ForChina,theexpectedchangebasedonavailabledataasof19September2017(seeSect.2.1.4)4

isforanincreaseinemissionsof+3.5%(rangeof+0.7%to+5.4%)in2017comparedto2016.This5

isbasedonestimatedgrowthincoal(+3%;themainfuelsourceinChina),oil(+5.0%)andnatural6

gas(+11.7%)consumptionandadeclineincementproduction(–0.5%).Theuncertaintyrange7

considersthespreadbetweendifferentdatasources,andvariancesoftypicalrevisionsofChinese8

dataovertime.Theuncertaintyinthegrowthrateofcoalconsumptionalsoreflectsuncertaintyin9

theevolutionofenergydensityandcarboncontentofcoal.10

FortheUSA,theEIAemissionsprojectionfor2017combinedwithcementdatafromUSGSgivesa11

decreaseof–0.4%(rangeof–2.7to+1.9%)comparedto2016.12

ForIndia,ourprojectionfor2017givesanincreaseof+2.0%(rangeof0.2%to+3.8%)over2016.13

Fortherestoftheworld(includingEU28),theexpectedgrowthfor2017is+1.9%(rangeof0.3%14

to+3.4%).ThisiscomputedusingtheGDPprojectionfortheworldexcludingChina,USA,and15

Indiaof3.0%madebytheIMF(IMF,2017)andadecreaseinIFFof–1.1%yr-1whichistheaverage16

from2007-2016.Theuncertaintyrangeisbasedonthestandarddeviationoftheinterannual17

variabilityinIFFduring2007-2016of±1.0%yr-1andourestimateofuncertaintyintheIMF’sGDP18

forecastof±0.5%.ApplyingthemethodtotheEU28individuallywouldgiveaprojectionof–0.2%19

(rangeof–2.0%to+1.6%)forEU28and+2.3%(rangeof+0.5%to+4.0%)fortheremaining20

countries,thoughtheuncertaintiesgrowwiththelevelofdisaggregation.21

Emissionsfromland-usechange(ELUC)for2017areprojectedtoremaininlinewithorslightly22

lowerthantheir2016levelof1.3GtC,basedonactivefiredetectionsbyOctober.23

3.4.2 Partitioningamongtheatmosphere,oceanandland 24

The2017growthinatmosphericCO2concentration(GATM)isprojectedtobe5.3GtCwith25

uncertaintyaround±1GtC(2.5±0.5ppm).CombiningprojectedEFF,ELUCandGATMsuggestsa26

combinedlandandoceansink(SLAND+SOCEAN)ofabout6GtCfor2017.Althougheachtermhas27

largeuncertainty,theoceanicsinkSOCEANhasgenerallylowinterannualvariabilityandislikelyto28

remainclosetoits2016valueofaround2.6GtC,leavingaroughestimatedlandsinkSLANDof29


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around3.4GtC,nearitsdecadalaverage(Table6).Thisbehaviourofthesinkisexpecteddueto1

theElNiño-neutralconditionsthatprevailedduring2017,instarkcontrasttothestrongElNiño2

conditionsin2015and2016thatreducedthelandsink.3

3.5 Cumulativesourcesandsinks4

Cumulativehistoricalsourcesandsinkshavebeenrevisedcomparedtothepreviousglobalcarbon5

budgets.Thisversionoftheglobalcarbonbudgetusestwoupdatedbookkeepingmodelsinstead6

ofonebookkeepingmodelonly,usestwooceansinkdata-productsinsteadofonedata-product7

only,andusesmultipleDGVMsforthelandsinkinsteadofderivingthelandsinkfromtheresidual8

oftheotherterms.Asaresultofthesemethodologicalchanges,thecumulativeemissionsand9

theirpartitioningissignificantlylarger(byabout50GtC)thanourpreviousestimates.Thislarge10

differencehighlightstheuncertaintyinreconstructinghistoricalemissionsourcesandsinks,and11

thisisnotedthroughthelargeuncertaintyassociatedwitheachterm.12

Cumulativefossilfuelandindustryemissionsfor1870-2016were420±20GtCforEFFand,with13

therevisedbookkeepingmodels,180±60GtCforELUC(Table9),foratotalof600±65GtC.The14

cumulativeemissionsfromELUCareparticularlyuncertain,withlargespreadamongindividual15

estimatesof135GtC(Houghton)and225GtC(BLUE)forthetwobookkeepingmodelsandarange16

of70to230GtCforthetwelveDGVMs.Theseestimatesareconsistentwithindirectconstraints17

frombiomassobservations(Lietal.,2017),butgiventhelargespreadabestestimateisdifficult18

toascertain.19

Withtherevisedmethodology,emissionswerepartitionedamongtheatmosphere(245±5GtC),20

ocean(145±20GtC),andtheland(185±55GtC).Theuseofnearlyindependentestimatesfor21

theindividualtermsshowsacumulativebudgetimbalanceof20GtCduring1870-2016,which,if22

correct,suggestsemissionsaretoohighbythesameproportionorthelandoroceansinksare23

underestimated.TheimbalanceoriginateslargelyfromthelargeELUCduringthemid1920sand24

themid1960swhichisunmatchedbyagrowthinatmosphericCO2concentrationasrecordedin25

icecores(Fig.3).Theknownlossofadditionalsinkcapacityofabout15GtCduetoreducedforest26

coverhasnotbeenaccountedinourmethodandfurtherexacerbatesthebudgetimbalance27

(Section2.7.3).28


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Cumulativeemissionsthroughtoyear2017increaseto610±65GtC(2235±240GtCO2),with1

about70%contributionfromEFFandabout30%contributionfromELUC.Cumulativeemissionsand2

theirpartitioningfordifferentperiodsareprovidedinTable9.3

Giventhelargerevisionincumulativeemissions,anditspersistentuncertainties,wesuggest4

extremecautionisneededifusingourupdatedcumulativeemissionestimatetodeterminethe5

“remainingcarbonbudget”tostaybelowgiventemperaturelimit(Rogeljetal.,2016).Wesuggest6

estimatingtheremainingcarbonbudgetbyintegratingscenariodatafromthecurrenttimeto7

sometimeinthefutureasproposedrecently(Millaretal.,2017).8

4 Discussion9

Eachyearwhentheglobalcarbonbudgetispublished,eachcomponentforallpreviousyearsis10

updatedtotakeintoaccountcorrectionsthataretheresultoffurtherscrutinyandverificationof11

theunderlyingdataintheprimaryinputdatasets.Theupdateshavegenerallybeenrelatively12

small(Fig.9).Howeverthisyear,weintroducedamajormethodologicalchangetoassessboth13

SOCEANandSLANDdirectlyusingmultipleprocessmodelsconstrainedbyobservations,andtokeep14

trackofthebudgetimbalanceseparately.WealsousemultiplebookkeepingestimatesforELUC.15

Therefore,theupdatecomparedtopreviousyearshasledtomoresubstantialrevisions,16

particularlyconcerningthemeanSOCEAN,thevariabilityofSLAND,andthetrendsinELUC(Fig.9).17

Thebudgetimbalanceprovidesameasureofthelimitationsinobservations,inunderstandingor18

fullrepresentationofprocessesinmodels,and/orintheintegrationofthecarbonbudget19

components.Themeanglobalbudgetimbalanceisclosetozeroandthereisnotrendoverthe20

entiretimeperiod(Fig.4).However,thebudgetimbalancereachesasmuchas±2GtCyr-1in21

individualyears,and±0.6GtCyr-1inindividualdecades(Table7).Suchlargebudgetimbalance22

limitsourabilitytoverifyreportedemissionsandlimitsourconfidenceintheunderlying23

processesregulatingthecarboncyclefeedbackswithclimatechange(Petersetal.,2017).24

Anothersemi-independentwaytoevaluatethecarbonbudgetresultsisprovidedthroughtheuse25

ofatmosphericandoceanicCO2dataindata-products(atmosphericinversionsandpCO2-based26

oceanfluxproducts).Thecomparisonshowsafirst-orderconsistencybetweenpCO2-baseddata-27

productsandprocessmodelsbutwithsubstantialdiscrepancies,particularlyfortheallocationof28

themeansurfacefluxesbetweenthetropicsandtheNorthernhemisphere,andforhighlighting29

underestimateddecadalvariabilityinSOCEAN.Understandingthecausesofthesediscrepanciesand30


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furtheranalysisofregionalcarbonbudgetswouldprovideadditionalinformationtoquantifyand1

improveourestimates,ashasbeenshownbytheprojectREgionalCarbonCycleAssessmentand2

Processes(RECCAP;Canadelletal.,2012-2013).3

TohelpimprovetheGlobalCarbonBudgetcomponents,weprovidealistofthemajorknown4

uncertaintiesforeachcomponent,definedasthoseuncertaintiesthathavebeenademonstrated5

effectofatleast0.3GtCyr-1(Table10).WeidentifiedmultiplesourcesofuncertaintiesforELUC,6

includingintheland-coverandland-usechangestatistics,representationofmanagement7

processes,andmethodologies.TherearealsomultiplesourcesofuncertaintiesinSLAND,mostly8

relatedtotheunderstandingandrepresentationofprocesses,andinSOCEAN,particularlyrelatedto9

representingtheeffectsofvariableoceancirculationinmodelsashighlightedbyrecent10

observations.Finally,thequalityoftheenergystatisticsandoftheemissionsfactorsarelargest11

sourcesofuncertaintiesforEFF.TherearenodemonstrateduncertaintiesinGATMlargerthan0.312

GtCyr-1,althoughtheconversionofthegrowthrateintoaglobalannualfluxassuming13

instantaneousmixingthroughouttheatmosphereintroducesadditionalerrorsthathavenotyet14

beenquantified.Multipleothersourcesofuncertaintieshavebeenidentified(i.e.incement15

emissions)thatcouldadduptosignificantcontributionsbutareunlikelytobethemainsourcesof16

thebudgetimbalance.17

Therearemanymoreuncertaintiesaffectingtheannualestimatescomparedtothemeanand18

trend,someofwhichcouldbeimprovedwithbetterdata.Ofthevarioustermsintheglobal19

budget,onlytheemissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustryandthegrowthrateinatmosphericCO220

concentrationarebasedprimarilyonempiricalinputssupportingannualestimatesinthiscarbon21

budget.pCO2-basedfluxproductsfortheoceanCO2sinkprovidenewwaystoevaluatethemodel22

results,buttherearestilllargediscrepanciesamongestimates.Giventhegrowingrelianceon23

processmodelsandpCO2-basedfluxproductsinourGlobalCarbonBudget,itiscriticalthatdata-24

basedmetricsaredevelopedandusedtoinformtheselectionofmodelsandtheimprovementof25

theirprocessrepresentationinthelongterm.26

5 Dataavailability27

Thedatapresentedherearemadeavailableinthebeliefthattheirwidedisseminationwillleadto28

greaterunderstandingandnewscientificinsightsofhowthecarboncycleworks,howhumansare29

alteringit,andhowwecanmitigatetheresultinghuman-drivenclimatechange.Thefree30


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availabilityofthesedatadoesnotconstitutepermissionforpublicationofthedata.Forresearch1

projects,ifthedataareessentialtothework,orifanimportantresultorconclusiondependson2

thedata,co-authorshipmayneedtobeconsidered.Fullcontactdetailsandinformationonhow3

tocitethedataaregivenatthetopofeachpageintheaccompanyingdatabase,andsummarised4

inTable2.5

TheaccompanyingdatabaseincludestwoExcelfilesorganisedinthefollowingspreadsheets6

(accessiblewiththefreeviewerhttp://www.microsoft.com/en-us/download/details.aspx?id=10):7

FileGlobal_Carbon_Budget_2017v1.0.xlsxincludesthefollowing:8

1. Summary9

2. Theglobalcarbonbudget(1959-2016);10

3. GlobalCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandcementproductionbyfueltype,andtheper-capita11

emissions(1959-2016);12

4. CO2emissionsfromland-usechangefromtheindividualmethodsandmodels(1959-2016);13

5. OceanCO2sinkfromtheindividualoceanmodelsandpCO2-basedproducts(1959-2016);14

6. TerrestrialCO2sinkfromtheDGVMs(1959-2016);15

7. Additionalinformationonthecarbonbalancepriorto1959(1750-2016).16

FileNational_Carbon_Emissions_2017v1.0.xlsxincludesthefollowing:17

1. Summary18

2. TerritorialcountryCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(1959-2016)fromCDIAC,19

extendedto2016usingBPdata;20

3. TerritorialcountryCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(1959-2016)fromCDIACwith21

UNFCCCdataoverwrittenwhereavailable,extendedto2016usingBPdata;22

4. ConsumptioncountryCO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustryandemissionstransfer23

fromtheinternationaltradeofgoodsandservices(1990-2015)usingCDIAC/UNFCCCdata24

(worksheet3above)asreference;25

5. Emissionstransfers(Consumptionminusterritorialemissions;1990-2015);26

6. Countrydefinitions;27

7. Detailsofdisaggregatedcountries;28

8. Detailsofaggregatedcountries.29

NationalemissionsdataarealsoavailablefromtheGlobalCarbonAtlas(globalcarbonatlas.org).30


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6 Conclusions1

TheestimationofglobalCO2emissionsandsinksisamajoreffortbythecarboncycleresearch2

communitythatrequiresacombinationofmeasurementsandcompilationofstatisticalestimates3

andresultsfrommodels.Thedeliveryofanannualcarbonbudgetservestwopurposes.First,4

thereisalargedemandforup-to-dateinformationonthestateoftheanthropogenicperturbation5

oftheclimatesystemanditsunderpinningcauses.Abroadstakeholdercommunityreliesonthe6

datasetsassociatedwiththeannualcarbonbudgetincludingscientists,policymakers,businesses,7

journalists,andthebroadersocietyincreasinglyengagedinadaptingtoandmitigatinghuman-8

drivenclimatechange.Second,overthelastdecadewehaveseenunprecedentedchangesinthe9

humanandbiophysicalenvironments(e.g.changesinthegrowthoffossilfuelemissions,ocean10

temperatures,andstrengthofthesink),whichcallformorefrequentassessmentsofthestateof11

theplanet,andbyimplication,abetterunderstandingofthefutureevolutionofthecarboncycle.12

Boththeoceanandthelandsurfacepresentlyremovealargefractionofanthropogenic13

emissions.Anysignificantchangeinthefunctionofcarbonsinksisofgreatimportancetoclimate14

policymaking,astheyaffecttheexcessCO2remainingintheatmosphereandthereforethe15

compatibleemissionsforanyclimatestabilisationtarget.Betterconstraintsofcarboncycle16

modelsagainstcontemporarydatasetsraisethecapacityforthemodelstobecomemore17

accurateatfutureprojections.Thisallrequiresmorefrequent,robust,andtransparentdatasets18

andmethodsthatcanbescrutinizedandreplicated.Thispapervia‘livingdata’willhelptokeep19

trackofnewbudgetupdates.20

Acknowledgments.Wethankallpeopleandinstitutionswhoprovidedthedatausedinthis21

carbonbudget;C.Enright,W.Peters,andS.Shufortheirinvolvementinthedevelopment,use22

andanalysisofthemodelsanddata-productsusedhere;F.Joos,S.KhatiwalaandT.DeVriesfor23

providinghistoricaldata;andA.Kirkfortechnicalsupport.WethankE.Dlugokenckywhoprovided24

theatmosphericCO2measurementsusedhere;C.Landa,C.BernardandS.JonesoftheBjerknes25

ClimateDataCentreandtheICOSOceanThematicCentredatamanagementattheUniversityof26

Bergen,whohelpedwithgatheringinformationfromtheSOCATcommunity,andallthose27

involvedincollectingandprovidingoceanographicCO2measurementsusedhere,inparticularfor28

thenewoceandataforyear2016(seeTableA2).ThisisNOAA-PMELcontributionnumber4728.29

Wethanktheinstitutionsandfundingagenciesresponsibleforthecollectionandqualitycontrol30

ofthedataincludedinSOCAT,andthesupportoftheInternationalOceanCarbonCoordination31


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Project(IOCCP),theSurfaceOceanLowerAtmosphereStudy(SOLAS),andtheIntegratedMarine1

Biogeochemistry,EcosystemResearch(IMBER)programme.Long-termsupportfortheCRUTS2

datasetiscurrentlyprovidedbytheUKNationalCentreforAtmosphericScience(NCAS),aNERC3

collaborativecentre.4

Finally,wethankallfunderswhohavesupportedtheindividualandjointcontributionstothis5

work(seeAppendixTableA1),aswellasM.Heimann,H.Dolman,andthemanyresearcherswho6

haveprovidedfeedbackduringtheGCPcommunityconsultationheldatthe10thInternationalCO27

ConferenceinInterlaken,Switzerland.8

9


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References1

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45

Tables6

Table1.Factorsusedtoconvertcarboninvariousunits(byconvention,Unit1=Unit2.7

conversion).8

Unit1 Unit2 Conversion Source

GtC(gigatonnesofcarbon) ppm(partspermillion)a 2.12b Ballantyneetal.(2012)

GtC(gigatonnesofcarbon) PgC(petagramsofcarbon) 1 SIunitconversion

GtCO2(gigatonnesofcarbondioxide) GtC(gigatonnesofcarbon) 3.664 44.01/12.011inmassequivalent

GtC(gigatonnesofcarbon) MtC(megatonnesofcarbon) 1000 SIunitconversion

aMeasurementsofatmosphericCO2concentrationhaveunitsofdry-airmolefraction.‘ppm’isan9abbreviationformicromole/mol,dryair.10bTheuseofafactorof2.12assumesthatalltheatmosphereiswellmixedwithinoneyear.Inreality,only11thetroposphereiswellmixedandthegrowthrateofCO2concentrationinthelesswell-mixedstratosphere12isnotmeasuredbysitesfromtheNOAAnetwork.Usingafactorof2.12makestheapproximationthatthe13growthrateofCO2concentrationinthestratosphereequalsthatofthetroposphereonayearlybasis.14 15


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Table2.Howtocitetheindividualcomponentsoftheglobalcarbonbudgetpresentedhere.1

Component Primaryreference

Globalemissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF),

totalandbyfueltype

Bodenetal.,(2017)

Nationalterritorialemissionsfromfossilfuelsand

industry(EFF)

CDIACsource:Bodenetal.,(2017)

UNFCCC(2017)

Nationalconsumption-basedemissionsfromfossilfuels

andindustry(EFF)bycountry(consumption)

Petersetal.(2011b)updatedasdescribedinthispaper

Land-usechangeemissions(ELUC) averagefromHoughtonandNassikas(2017)andHansiset

al.,(2015),bothupdatedasdescribedinthispaper

GrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentration(GATM) DlugokenckyandTans(2017)

OceanandlandCO2sinks(SOCEANandSLAND) ThispaperforSOCEANandSLANDandreferencesinTable5

forindividualmodels.


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54 Table3.M

ainmethodologicalchangesintheglobalcarbonbudgetsincefirstpublication.U

nlessspecifiedbelow,them

ethodologywasidenticaltothat

1describedinthecurrentpaper.Furtherm

ore,methodologicalchangesintroducedinoneyeararekeptforthefollow

ingyearsunlessnoted.Emptycellsm

ean2

therewerenom

ethodologicalchangesintroducedthatyear.3

Publicationyear aFossilfuelem

issionsLU

Cemissions

ReservoirsUncertainty&

otherchanges

Global

Country(territorial)Country(consum

ption)Atm

osphereOcean

Land2006Raupachetal.(2007)

Splitinregions

2007Canadelletal.(2007)

ELU

C basedonFAO-FRA

2005;constantELU

C for20061959-1979datafrom

MaunaLoa;

dataafter1980from

globalaverage

Basedononeoceanmodeltunedto

reproducedobserved1990ssink

±1σprovidedforall

components

2008(online)

ConstantELU

C for2007

2009LeQ

uéréetal.(2009)

SplitbetweenAnnex

Bandnon-AnnexBResultsfrom

anindependentstudy

discussed

Fire-basedemission

anomaliesusedfor2006-

2008

Basedonfouroceanmodelsnorm

alisedtoobservationsw

ithconstantdelta

FirstuseoffiveDGVM

stocom

parewithbudget

residual

2010Friedlingsteinetal.(2010)

ProjectionforcurrentyearbasedonG

DP

Emissionsfortopem

itters

ELU

C updatedwithFAO

-FRA2010

2011

Petersetal.(2012b)

Splitbetw

eenAnnexBandnon-AnnexB

2012LeQ

uéréetal.(2013)Petersetal.(2013)

129countriesfrom

1959

129countriesandregionsfrom

1990-2010basedonGTAP8.0

ELU

C for1997-2011includesinterannualanom

aliesfrom

fire-basedemissions

Allyearsfromglobal

averageBasedon5oceanm

odelsnorm

alisedtoobservationsw

ithratio

TenDGVM

savailableforSLAN

D ;Firstuseoffourmodelstocom

parewith

ELU

C

2013LeQ

uéréetal.(2014)

250countriesb

134countriesandregions1990-2011basedon

GTAP8.1,w

ithdetailedestim

atesforyears1997,2001,2004,and2007

ELU

C for2012estimated

from2001-2010average

Basedonsixm

odelscom

paredwithtw

odata-productstoyear2011

CoordinatedDGVM

experim

entsforSLAN

D andELU

C

Confidencelevels;cum

ulativeemissions;

budgetfrom1750

2014LeQ

uéréetal.(2015b)ThreeyearsofBPdata

ThreeyearsofBPdata

Extendedto2012with

updatedGDPdata

ELU

C for1997-2013includesinterannualanom

aliesfrom

fire-basedemissions

Basedonsevenm

odelsBasedontenm

odelsInclusionofbreakdow

nofthesinksinthreelatitudebandsandcom

parisonwith

threeatmospheric

inversions2015LeQ

uéréetal.(2015a)Jacksonetal.(2016)

ProjectionforcurrentyearbasedJan-Augdata

Nationalem

issionsfrom

UNFCCC

extendedto2014alsoprovided

Detailedestim

atesintroducedfor2011basedonG

TAP9

Basedoneightmodels

Basedontenmodelsw

ithassessm

entofminim

um

realism

ThedecadaluncertaintyfortheD

GVM

ensemblem

eannow

uses±1σofthedecadalspreadacrossm

odels2016LeQ

uéréetal.(2016)Tw

oyearsofBPdata

Addedthreesmall

countries;CHN

emissionsfrom

1990from

BPdata(thisreleaseonly)

Prelim

inaryELU

C usingFRA-2015show

nforcomparison;

useoffiveDGVM

s

Basedonsevenm

odelsBasedonfourteen

models

Discussionofprojectionfor

fullbudgetforcurrentyear

2017(thisstudy)Projectionincludes

India-specificdata

Averageoftwo

bookkeepingmodels;useof

twelveD

GVM

s

Basedoneightm

odelsthatm

atchtheobservedsinkforthe1990s;nolongernorm

alised

Basedonfifteenmodels

thatmeetthreecriteria

(seeSect.2.5)

Landmulti-m

odelaveragenow

usedinmaincarbon

budget,withthecarbon

imbalancepresented

separately;newtableofkey

uncertainties


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55 aThenam

ingconventionofthebudgetshaschanged.Uptoandincluding2010,thebudgetyear(CarbonBudget2010)representedthelatestyearofthedata.From

2012,1

thebudgetyear(CarbonBudget2012)referstotheinitialpublicationyear.2

bTheCDIACdatabasehasabout250countries,butw

eshowdatafor219countriessincew

eaggregateanddisaggregatesomecountriestobeconsistentw

ithcurrent3

countrydefinitions(seeSect.2.1.1formoredetails).

4


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Table4a.Comparisonoftheprocessesincluded(Y)ornot(N)inthebookkeepingandDynamic1GlobalVegetationModelsfortheirestimatesofELUCandSLAND.SeeTable5formodelreferences.2Allmodelsincludedeforestationandforestregrowthafterabandonmentofagriculture(orfrom3afforestationactivitiesonagriculturalland).4

bookkeepingmodels

DGVMs

H&N20

07

BLUE

CABLE

CLAS

S-CT

EM

CLM4.5(BG

C)

DLEM

ISAM

JSBA

CHj

JULES

LPJ-G

UESSj

LPJ

LPX-Be

rn

OCN

ORC

HIDE

E

Orchide

e-MICT

SDGVM

VISITj

ProcessesrelevantforELUC

Woodharvestandforestdegradationa

Y Y Y N Y Y Y N N Nd Y Y N N

Shiftingcultivation/subgridscaletransitions Nb Y Y N Y N N N N Nd N N N N

Croplandharvest Yi Yi N L N Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y

Peatfires Y Y N N Y N N N N N N N N N

Fireasamanagementtool Yi Yi N N N N N N N N N N N N

Nfertilization Yi Yi N N N Y Y N N Y Y N N N

Tillage Yi Yi N Yf N N N N N N N Yh Yh N

Irrigation Yi Yi N N N Y Y N N N N N N N

Wetlanddrainage Yi Yi N N N N N N N N N N N N

Erosion Yi Yi N N N N N N N N N N N N SouthEastAsiapeatdrainage

Y Y N N N N N N N N N N N N

Grazingandmowingharvest Yi Yi N N N N Y N Y N N N N N

ProcessesrelevantalsoforSLAND

Firesimulation USonly N N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y N N Y Y YClimateandvariability N N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

CO2fertilisation Ng Ng Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y YCarbon-nitrogeninteractions,includingNdeposition

Ni Ni Y Ne Y Y Y N N Y N Y Y Ne N Yc N

aReferstotheroutineharvestofestablishedmanagedforestsratherthanpoolsofharvestedproducts.5bNoback-andforth-transitionsbetweenvegetationtypesatthecountry-level,butifforestlossbasedonFRA6exceededagriculturalexpansionbasedonFAO,thenthisamountofarea7cLimited.NitrogenuptakeissimulatedasafunctionofsoilC,andVcmaxisanempiricalfunctionofcanopyN.Does8notconsiderNdeposition.9dAvailablebutnotactiveforcomparabilitybetweenthetwoLUforcings.10eAlthoughC-Ncycleinteractionsarenotrepresented,themodelincludesaparameterizationofdown-reguationof11photosynthesisasCO2increasestoemulatenutrientconstraints(Aroraetal.,2009)12fTillageisrepresentedovercroplandsbyincreasedsoilcarbondecompositionrateandreducedhumificationoflitter13tosoilcarbon.14gBookkeepingmodelsincludeeffectofCO2-fertilizationascapturedbyobservedcarbondensities,butnotasaneffect15transientintime.16h20%reductionofactiveSOCpoolturnovertimeforC3cropand40%reductionforC4crops17iProcesscapturedimplicitlybyuseofobservedcarbondensities.18jThreeDGVMswereexcludedfromtheELUCestimateduetoaninitialpeakofELUCemissionscausedbyacoldstartof19shiftingcultivationin1860.2021

22


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Table4b.ComparisonoftheprocessesincludedintheGlobalOceanBiogeochemistryModelsfor1theirestimatesofSOCEAN.SeeTable5formodelreferences.23

CCSM

-BEC

CSIRO

NorESM-OC

MITgcm-

REcoM2

MPIOM-

HAMOCC

NEM

O-PISCE

S(CNRM

)

NEM

O-PISCE

S(IP

SL)

NEM

O-

Plan

kTOM5

Atmosphericforcing NCEP JRA55

CORE-I(spinup)/NCEPwithCORE-IIcorrections

JRA55 ERA-20C NCEP NCEP NCEP

Initialisationofcarbonchemistry

GLODAP GLODAP+spinup1000+years

GLODAPv1+spinup1000

years

GLODAP,thenspin-up116

years(2cyclesJRA55)

frompreviousmodelruns

with>1000yrsspinup

spinup3000yearsoffline+300yearsonline

GLODAPfrom1948onwards

GLODAP+spinup30years

Physicaloceanmodel

POPVersion1.4.3 MOM5 MICOM MITgcm65n MPIOM NEMOv2.4-

ORCA1L42NEMOv3.2-ORCA2L31

NEMOv2.3-ORCA2

Resolution 3.6olon,0.8to1.8olat

1ox1owithenhanced

resolutionatthetropicsand

highlatS.Ocean;50levels

1°lon,0.17to0.25lat;51isopycnic

layers+2bulkmixedlayer

2°lon,0.38-2°lat,30levels

1.5o;

40levels

2°lon,0.3to1°lat

42levels,5matsurface

2olon,0.3to1.5olat;31

levels

2olon,0.3to1.5olat;31

levels

4

5


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Table4c.Comparisonoftheinversionsetupandinputfieldsfortheatmosphericinversions.See1Table5forreferences.2

3

a(CarbontrackerTeam,2017;GLOBALVIEW,2016)4b(vanderVeldeetal.,2014)5 6

CarbonTrackerEurope(CTE)

JenaCarboScope CAMS

Versionnumber CTE2017-FT s85oc_v4.1s v16r1

Observations

Atmosphericobservations

Hourlyresolution(well-mixed

conditions)OBSPACKGLOBALVIEWplusv2.1

&NRTv3.3a

Flasksandhourly(outliersremovedby2-

sigmacriterion)

Dailyaveragesofwell-mixedconditions-OBSPACK

GLOBALVIEWplusv2.1a&NRTv3.2.3,WDCGG,RAMCESand

ICOSATC

Priorfluxes

Biosphereandfires

SiBCASA-GFED4sb Zero ORCHIDEE(climatological),GFEDv4&GFAS

Ocean OceaninversionbyJacobsonetal.(2007)

pCO2-basedoceanfluxproductoc_v1.5(updateofRödenbecketal.,

2014)

Landschützeretal.(2015)

Fossilfuels EDGAR+IER,scaledtoCDIAC

CDIAC(extendedafter2013withGCPtotals)

EDGARscaledtoCDIAC

Transportandoptimization

Transportmodel

TM5 TM3 LMDZv5A

Weatherforcing

ECMWF NCEP ECMWF

Resolution(degrees)

Global:3°x2°,Europe:1°x1°,NorthAmerica:

1°x1°

Global:4°x5° Global:3.75°x1.875°

Optimization EnsembleKalmanfilter Conjugategradient(re-ortho-normalization)

Variational


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Table5.Referencesfortheprocessmodels,pCO2-basedoceanfluxproducts,andatmospheric1inversionsincludedinFigs.6-8.Allmodelsandproductsareupdatedwithnewdatatoendofyear22016.3

Model/dataname Reference ChangefromLeQuéréetal.(2016)

Bookkeepingmodelsforland-usechangeemissions

BLUE Hansisetal.(2015) Notapplicable(notusedinpreviouscarbonbudgets)

H&N HoughtonandNassikas(2017)

updatedfromHoughtonetal.(2012);keydifferencesincludeRevisedland-usechangedatatoFAO2015,revisedvegetationcarbondensities,IndonesianandMalaysianpeatburninganddrainageadded,removalofshiftingcultivation

Dynamicglobalvegetationmodels

CABLE Haverdetal.,(2017)OptimisationofplantinvestmentinRubisco-vselectrontransport-limitedphotosynthesis;temperature-dependentonsetofspringrecoveryinevergreenneedle-leaves

CLASS-CTEM MeltonandArora(2016)Asoilcolourindexisnowusedtodeterminesoilalbedoasopposedtosoiltexture.Soilalbedostillgetsmodulatedbyotherfactorsincludingsoilmoisture.

CLM4.5(BGC) Olesonetal.(2013) Nochange

DLEM Tianetal.(2015) Considerationoftheexpansionofcroplandandpasture,comparedwithnopastureexpansioninpreviousversion.

ISAM Jainetal.(2013) Nochange

JSBACH Reicketal.(2013)aAdaptedthepre-processingoftheLUHdata;scalingcropandpasturestatesandtransitionswiththedesertfractionsinjsbachinordertomaintainasmuchoftheprescribedagriculturalareasaspossible.

JULESb Clarkeetal.(2011)c NoChange

LPJ-GUESS Smithetal.(2014)d

LUH2withlanduseaggregatedtoLPJ-GUESSlandcoverinputs,shiftingcultivationbasedonLUH2grosstransitionsmatrix,andwoodharvestbasedonLUH2areafractionsofwoodharvest;αareductionby15%

LPJe Sitchetal.(2003)f Nochange

LPX-Bern Kelleretal.,(2017) Updatedmodelparametervalues(Kelleret.al.2017)duetoassimilationofobservationaldata.

OCN ZaehleandFriend(2010)g usesr293,includingminorbugfixes;useoftheCMIP6Ndepositiondataset(Hegglinetal.inprep)

ORCHIDEE Krinneretal.(2005)h improvedwaterstress,newsoilalbedo,improvedsnowscheme

ORCHIDEE-MICT Guimberteauetal.(2017)newversionofORCHIDEEincludingfires,permafrostregionscouplingbetweensoilthermicsandcarbondynamics,managedgrasslands

SDGVM Woodwardetal(1995)i UsesKattgeetal.(2009)Vcmax~leafNrelationships(withoxisolrelationshipforevergreenbroadleaves)

VISIT Katoetal.(2013)jLUH2isappliedforland-use,woodharvest,andland-usechange.SensitivityofsoildecompositionparametersfromLloydandTaylor(1994)aremodified.


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Globaloceanbiogeochemistrymodels

CCSM-BEC Doneyetal.(2009) ChangeinatmosphericCO2concentrationk

CSIRO Lawetal.(2017) PhysicalmodelchangefromMOM4toMOM5andatmosphericforcingfromJRA-55

MITgcm-REcoM2 Haucketal.(2016) 1%ironsolubilityandatmosphericforcingfromJRA-55

MPIOM-HAMOCCl Ilyinaetal.(2013) CyanobacteriaaddedtoHAMOCC(Paulsenetal.,2017)

NEMO-PISCES(CNRM) Séférianetal.(2013) Nochange

NEMO-PISCES(IPSL) AumontandBopp(2006) Nochange

NEMO-PlankTOM5 Buitenhuisetal.(2010)m Nochange

NorESM-OC Schwingeretal.(2016) Nochange

pCO2-basedfluxoceanproducts

Landschützer Landschützeretal.(2016) Nochange

JenaCarboScope Rödenbecketal.(2014) Updatedtoversionoc_1.5

Atmosphericinversions

CarbonTrackerEurope(CTE)

vanderLaan-Luijkxetal.(2017)

Minorchangesintheinversionsetup

JenaCarboScope Rödenbecketal.(2003) Priorfluxes,outlierremoval,changesinatmosphericobservationsstationsuite

CAMSn Chevallieretal.(2005) Changefromhalf-hourlyobservationstodailyaveragesofwell-mixedconditions

aSeealsoGolletal.(2015).1bJointUKLandEnvironmentSimulator.2cSeealsoBestetal.(2011).3dToaccountforthedifferencesbetweenthederivationofSWRADfromCRUcloudinessandSWRADfromCRU-NCEP,4thephotosythesisscalingparameterαawasmodified(-15%)toyieldsimilarresults.5eLund-Potsdam-Jena.6fComparedtopublishedversion,decreasedLPJwoodharvestefficiencysothat50%ofbiomasswasremovedoff-site7comparedto85%usedinthe2012budget.Residuemanagementofmanagedgrasslandsincreasedsothat100%of8harvestedgrassentersthelitterpool.9gSeealsoZaehleetal.(2011).10hComparedtopublishedversion,revisedparametersvaluesforphotosyntheticcapacityforborealforests(following11assimilationofFLUXNETdata),updatedparametersvaluesforstemallocation,maintenancerespirationandbiomass12exportfortropicalforests(basedonliterature)and,CO2down-regulationprocessaddedtophotosynthesis.13iSeealsoWoodward&Lomas(2004)andWalkeretal.(2017).Changesfrompublicationsincludesub-dailylight14downscalingforcalculationofphotosynthesisandotheradjustment.15jSeealsoItoandInatomi(2012).16kPrevioussimulationsusedatmosphericCO2concentrationfromtheIPCCIS92ascenario.Thishasbeenre-runusing17observedatmosphericCO2concentrationconsistentwiththeprotocolusedhere.18lLastincludedinLeQuéréetal.(2015)19mWithnonutrientrestoringbelowthemixedlayerdepth.20nSeealsoSupplementaryMaterial(Chevallier,2015;Hourdinetal.,2006).212223

24


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61 Table6.Com

parisonofresultsfromthebookkeepingm

ethodandbudgetresidualswithresultsfrom

theDGVMsandinverseestim

atesfor1

differentperiods,lastdecadeandlastyearavailable.AllvaluesareinGtCyr -1.TheDGVMuncertaintiesrepresent±1σofthedecadalorannual

2(for2016only)estim

atesfromtheindividualDGVM

s,fortheinversemodelsallthreeresultsaregivenw

hereavailable.3

4

Mean(G

tCyr -1)

1960-1969

1970-19791980-1989

1990-19992000-2009

2007-20162016

Land-usechangeemissions(E

LUC )

Bookkeepingmethods

1.4±0.71.1±0.7

1.2±0.71.3±0.7

1.2±0.71.3±0.7

1.3±0.7

DGVM

s1.3±0.5

1.2±0.51.2±0.4

1.2±0.31.2±0.4

1.3±0.41.4±0.8

Terrestrialsink(SLAN

D )

Residualsinkfromglobalbudget

(EFF -E

LUC -G

ATM -SOCEAN )

1.8±0.91.8±0.9

1.5±0.92.6±0.9

3.0±0.93.6±1.0

2.4±1.0

DGVM

s a1.4±0.7

2.4±0.62.0±0.6

2.5±0.52.9±0.8

3.0±0.82.7±1.0

Totallandfluxes(SLAN

D –ELUC )

Budgetconstraint(EFF -G

ATM -SOCEAN )

0.4±0.50.7±0.6

0.4±0.61.3±0.6

1.7±0.62.3±0.7

1.1±0.7

DGVM

s0.1±0.9

1.2±0.80.7±0.7

1.2±0.51.7±0.8

1.7±0.71.3±1.0

Inversions(CTE/JenaCarboScope/CAM

S)*—/—

/—

—/—

/—

—/—

/0.2—/0.6/1.3

1.4/1.1/1.91.8/1.4/2.3

0.0/0.0/2.2

*Estimatesarecorrectedforthepreindustrialinfluenceofriverfluxes(Sect.2.7.2).SeeTables4c&

5forreferences.5


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62 Table7.Decadalm

eaninthefivecomponentsoftheanthropogenicCO

2 budgetfordifferentperiods,andlastyearavailable.Allvaluesarein1

GtCyr -1,anduncertaintiesarereportedas±1σ.UnlikepreviousversionsoftheGlobalCarbonBudget,theterrestrialsink(S

LAND )isnow

2

estimatedindependentlyfrom

themeanofDGVM

models.Thereforethetablealsoshow

sthebudgetimbalance(B

IM ),whichprovidesa

3measureofthediscrepanciesam

ongthenearlyindependentestimatesandhasanuncertaintyexceeding±1G

tCyr -1.Apositiveimbalance

4meanstheem

issionsareoverestimatedand/orthesinksaretoosm

all.5

Mean(G

tCyr -1)

1960-1969

1970-19791980-1989

1990-19992000-2009

2007-20162016

Emissions

Fossilfuelsandindustry(EFF )

3.1±0.24.7±0.2

5.5±0.36.3±0.3

7.8±0.49.4±0.5

9.9±0.5

Land-usechangeemissions(E

LUC )

1.4±0.71.1±0.7

1.2±0.71.3±0.7

1.2±0.71.3±0.7

1.3±0.7

Partitioning

Grow

thrateinatmosphericCO

2

concentration(GATM )

1.7±0.12.8±0.1

3.4±0.13.1±0.1

4.0±0.14.7±0.1

6.1±0.2

Oceansink(S

OCEAN )

1.0±0.51.3±0.5

1.7±0.51.9±0.5

2.1±0.52.4±0.5

2.6±0.5

Terrestrialsink(SLAN

D )1.4±0.7

2.4±0.62.0±0.6

2.5±0.52.9±0.8

3.0±0.82.7±1.0

Budgetimbalance

BIM =E

FF +ELU

C -(GATM +S

OCEAN +S

LAND )

(0.4)(–0.6)

(–0.4)(0.1)

(0.0)(0.6)

(–0.3)


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Table8.Comparisonoftheprojectionwithrealisedemissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF).1The‘Actual’valuesarefirstestimateavailableusingactualdata,andthe‘Projected’valuesrefers2toestimatemadebeforetheendoftheyearforeachpublication.Projectionsbasedonadifferent3methodfromthatdescribedhereduring2008-2014areavailableinLeQuéréetal.,(2016).All4valuesareadjustedforleapyears.56

World China USA India RestofWorld

Projected Actual Projected Actual Projected Actual Projected Actual Projected Actual

2015a –0.6%(–1.6to0.5) 0.06%

–3.9%(–4.6to–1.1) –0.7% –1.5%

(–5.5to0.3) –2.5% – – 1.2%(–0.2to2.6) 0.7%

2016b –0.2%(–1.0to+1.8)+0.18%

–0.5%(–3.8to+1.3) –0.3% –1.7%

(–4.0to+0.6)–2.1% – – +1.0%

(–0.4to+2.5) 0.6%

2017c +2.0%(+0.8to+3.0) – +3.5

(+0.7to+5.4) – –0.4%(–2.7to+1.0) – +2.0%

(+0.2to+3.8) – +1.9%(0.3to+3.4) –

aJacksonetal.(2016)andLeQuéréetal.(2015a).bLeQuéréetal.,(2016).cThisstudy.7 8


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1

Table9.CumulativeCO2emissionsfordifferenttimeperiodsingigatonnesofcarbon(GtC).All2uncertaintiesarereportedas±1σ.ELUCandSOCEANhavebeenrevisedtoincorporatemultiple3estimates(Section3.5),andunlikepreviousversionsoftheGlobalCarbonBudget,theterrestrial4sink(SLAND)isnowestimatedindependentlyfromthemeanoftheDGVM.Thereforethetable5alsoshowsthebudgetimbalance,whichprovidesameasureofthediscrepanciesamongthe6nearlyindependentestimates.Itsuncertaintyexceeds±60GtC.Themethodusedheredoesnot7capturethelossofadditionalsinkcapacityfromreducedforestcover,whichisabout15GtCand8wouldexacerbatethebudgetimbalance(seeSection2.7.3).Allvaluesareroundedtothe9nearest5GtCandthereforecolumnsdonotnecessarilyaddtozero.10

UnitsofGtC 1750-2016 1850-2005 1959-2016 1870-2016 1870-2017a

Emissions

Fossilfuelsandindustry(EFF) 420±20 320±15 345±15 420±20 430±20

Land-usechangeemissions(ELUC) 225±75 180±60 75±40 180±60 180±60

Totalemissions 645±80 500±60 415±45 600±65 610±65

Partitioning

GrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentration(GATM)

b270±5 200±5 185±5 245±5 250±5

Oceansink(SOCEAN) 160±20 145±20 95±20 145±20 150±20

Terrestrialsink(SLAND)c 205±55 155±45 135±35 190±45 190±55

Budgetimbalance

BIM=EFF+ELUC-(GATM+SOCEAN+SLAND) (15) (0) (0) (20) (20)

aUsingprojectionsforyear2017(Sect.3.3).11bAsmallchangewasintroducedfromLeQuéréetal.(2016)tobeconsistentwiththeannualanalysis,wherebythe12growthinatmosphericCO2concentrationiscalculatedfromthedifferencebetweenconcentrationsattheendofthe13year(deseasonalised),ratherthanaveragedovertheyear.14cAssumingSLANDincreasesproportionallytoGATMpriorto1860whentheDGVMestimatesstart.15 16


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Table10.MajorknownsourcesofuncertaintiesineachcomponentoftheGlobalCarbonBudget,1definedasinputdataorprocessesthathaveademonstratedeffectofatleast0.3GtCyr-1.23

Sourceofuncertainty Timescale(years) Location Status Evidence

Emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF;Section2.1)

energystatistics annualtodecadal mainlyChina seeSect.2.1 (Korsbakkenetal.,2016)

carboncontentofcoal decadal mainlyChina seeSect.2.1 (Liuetal.,2015)

Emissionsfromland-usechange(ELUC;section2.2)

land-coverandland-usechangestatistics continuous global seeSect.2.2 (Houghtonetal.,2012)

sub-grid-scaletransitions annualtodecadal global;inparticulartropics seeTable5 (Wilkenskjeldetal.,2014)

vegetationbiomass annualtodecadal global;inparticulartropics seeTable5 (Houghtonetal.,2012)

woodandcropharvest annualtodecadal global seeTable5 (Arnethetal.,2017)

peatburninga multi-decadaltrend global;SEAsia seeTable5 (vanderWerfetal.,2010)

lossofadditionalsinkcapacity multi-decadaltrend global notincluded;

Section2.7.3 (GitzandCiais,2003)

Atmosphericgrowthrate(GATM)ànodemonstrateduncertaintieslargerthan±0.3GtCyr-1,b

Oceansink(SOCEAN)

variabilityinoceaniccirculationc

semi-decadaltodecadal

global;inparticularSouthernOcean seeSect.2.4.2 (DeVriesetal.,2017)

anthropogenicchangesinnutrientsupply multi-decadaltrend global notincluded (Duceetal.,2008)

Landsink(SLAND)

strengthofCO2fertilisation multi-decadaltrend global seeSect.2.5 (Wenzeletal.,2016)

responsetovariabilityintemperatureandrainfall annualtodecadal global;inparticular

tropics seeSect.2.5 (Coxetal.,2013)

nutrientlimitationandsupply multi-decadaltrend global seeSect.2.5 (Zaehleetal.,2011)

responsetodiffuseradiation annual global seeSect.2.5 (Mercadoetal.,2009)

aAsresultofinteractionsbetweenland-useandclimate4bTheuncertaintiesinGATMhavebeenestimatedas±0.2GtCyr-1,althoughtheconversionofthegrowthrateintoa5globalannualfluxassuminginstantaneousmixingthroughouttheatmosphereintroducesadditionalerrorsthathave6notyetbeenquantified.7cCouldinpartbeduetouncertaintiesinatmosphericforcing(Swartetal.,2014) 8


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FigureCaptions1

2

Figure1.SurfaceaverageatmosphericCO2concentration,deseasonalised(ppm).The1980-20173

monthlydataarefromNOAA/ESRL(DlugokenckyandTans,2017)andarebasedonanaverageof4

directatmosphericCO2measurementsfrommultiplestationsinthemarineboundarylayer5

(MasarieandTans,1995).The1958-1979monthlydataarefromtheScrippsInstitutionof6

Oceanography,basedonanaverageofdirectatmosphericCO2measurementsfromtheMauna7

LoaandSouthPolestations(Keelingetal.,1976).TotakeintoaccountthedifferenceofmeanCO28

betweentheNOAA/ESRLandtheScrippsstationnetworksusedhere,theScrippssurfaceaverage9

(fromtwostations)washarmonisedtomatchtheNOAA/ESRLsurfaceaverage(frommultiple10

stations)byaddingthemeandifferenceof0.542ppm,calculatedherefromoverlappingdata11

during1980-2012.Themeanseasonalcycleisalsoshownfrom1980(inpink).12

13

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

Time (yr)

Atm

osph

eric

CO2 c

once

ntra

tion

(ppm

)

Seasonally corrected trend:

Monthly mean:

Scripps Institution of Oceanography (Keeling et al., 1976)NOAA/ESRL (Dlugokencky & Tans, 2017)

NOAA/ESRL


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1

Figure2.Schematicrepresentationoftheoverallperturbationoftheglobalcarboncyclecaused2

byanthropogenicactivities,averagedgloballyforthedecade2007-2016.Thearrowsrepresent3

emissionfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF);emissionsfromdeforestationandotherland-use4

change(ELUC);thegrowthrateinatmosphericCO2concentration(GATM)andtheuptakeofcarbon5

bythe‘sinks’intheocean(SOCEAN)andland(SLAND)reservoirs.Thebudgetimbalance(BIM)isalso6

shown.AllfluxesareinunitsofGtCyr-1,withuncertaintiesreportedas±1σ(68%confidencethat7

therealvaluelieswithinthegiveninterval)asdescribedinthetext.Thisfigureisanupdateofone8

preparedbytheInternationalGeosphereBiosphereProgrammefortheGCP,usingdiagrams9

createdwithsymbolsfromtheIntegrationandApplicationNetwork,UniversityofMaryland10

CenterforEnvironmentalScience(ian.umces.edu/symbols/),firstpresentedinLeQuéré(2009).11

12


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1

2

Figure3.CombinedcomponentsoftheglobalcarbonbudgetillustratedinFig.2asafunctionof3

time,foremissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF;grey)andemissionsfromland-usechange4

(ELUC;brown),aswellastheirpartitioningamongtheatmosphere(GATM;purple),land(SLAND;5

green)andoceans(SOCEAN;darkblue).Thepartitioningisbasedonnearlyindependentestimates6

fromobservations(forGATM)andfromprocessmodelensemblesconstrainedbydata(forSOCEAN7

andSLAND),anddoesnotexactlyadduptothesumoftheemissions,resultinginabudget8

imbalancewhichisreflectedinthedifferencebetweenthebottomredlineandthesumofthe9

ocean,landandatmosphere.AlltimeseriesareinGtCyr-1.GATMandSOCEANpriorto1959are10

basedondifferentmethods.EFFareprimarilyfromBodenetal.(2017),withuncertaintyofabout11

±5%(±1σ);ELUCarefromtwobookkeepingmodels(Table2)withuncertaintiesofabout±50%;12

GATMpriorto1959isfromJoosandSpahni(2008)withuncertaintiesequivalenttoabout±0.1-0.1513

GtCyr-1,andfromDlugokenckyandTans(2017)from1959withuncertaintiesofabout±0.2GtC14

yr-1;SOCEANpriorto1959isaveragedfromKhatiwalaetal.(2013)andDeVries(2014)with15

uncertaintyofabout±30%,andfromamulti-modelmean(Table5)from1959withuncertainties16

ofabout±0.5GtCyr-1;SLANDisamulti-modelmean(Table5)withuncertaintiesofabout±0.9GtC17

yr-1.Seethetextformoredetailsofeachcomponentandtheiruncertainties.18

Time (yr)

CO

2 flux

(GtC

yr−

1 )

Emissions

Partitioning

Fossil fuels and industry

Land−use change

Ocean

Land

Atmosphere

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020−12

−8

−4

0

4

8

12


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1

Figure4.Componentsoftheglobalcarbonbudgetandtheiruncertaintiesasafunctionoftime,2

presentedindividuallyfor(a)emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustry(EFF),(b)emissionsfrom3

land-usechange(ELUC),(c)thebudgetimbalancethatisnotaccountedforbytheotherterms,(d)4

growthrateinatmosphericCO2concentration(GATM),and(e)thelandCO2sink(SLAND,positive5

indicatesafluxfromtheatmospheretotheland),(f)theoceanCO2sink(SOCEAN,positiveindicates6

afluxfromtheatmospheretotheocean).AlltimeseriesareinGtCyr-1withtheuncertainty7

boundsrepresenting±1σinshadedcolour.DatasourcesareasinFig.3.Theblackdotsin(a)show8

valuesfor2015and2016thatoriginatefromadifferentdatasettotheremainderofthedata(see9

text).Thedashedlinein(b)identifiesthepre-satelliteperiodbeforetheinclusionofpeatland10

burning.11

12

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

2

4

6

8

10

12(a) Fossil fuels and industry

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−2

0

2

4

6

8

10(d) Atmospheric growth

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(GtC

yr−

1 )

(b) Land−use change

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

CO

2 par

titio

ning

(GtC

yr−

1 )

(e) Land sink

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−6

−4

−2

0

2

4

6

CO

2 flux

(GtC

yr−

1 )

Time (yr)

(c) Budget imbalance

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−2

0

2

4

6

8

10(f) Ocean sink

Time (yr)


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1

Figure5.CO2emissionsfromfossilfuelsandindustryfor(a)theglobe,includinganuncertaintyof2

±5%(greyshading),theemissionsextrapolatedusingBPenergystatistics(blackdots)andthe3

emissionsprojectionforyear2017basedonGDPprojection(reddot),(b)globalemissionsbyfuel4

type,includingcoal(salmon),oil(olive),gas(turquoise),andcement(purple),andexcludinggas5

flaringwhichissmall(0.6%in2013),(c)territorial(solidline)andconsumption(dashedline)6

emissionsforthecountrieslistedinAnnexBoftheKyotoProtocol(salmonlines;mostlyadvanced7

economieswithemissionslimitations)versusnon-AnnexBcountries(greenlines);alsoshownare8

theemissionstransferfromnon-AnnexBtoAnnexBcountries(lightblueline)(d)territorialCO29

emissionsforthetopthreecountryemitters(USA-olive;China-salmon;India-purple)andfor10

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

2

4

6

8

10

12a

Global

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

1

2

3

4

5

CO2 e

miss

ions

(GtC

yr−

1 )

Coal

Oil

Gas

Cement

b

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Time (yr)

Annex B

Non−Annex B

Emissions transfers

c

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

CO2 e

miss

ions

(GtC

yr−

1 )

China

USA

EU28

India

d

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Time (yr)Per c

apita

em

issio

ns (t

C pe

rson

−1 y

r−1 )

India

USA

China

EU28

Global

e


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theEuropeanUnion(EU;turquoiseforthe28memberstatesoftheEUasof2012),and(e)per-1

capitaemissionsforthetopthreecountryemittersandtheEU(allcoloursasinpanel(d))andthe2

world(black).In(b-e),thedotsshowthedatathatwereextrapolatedfromBPenergystatistics3

for2014and2015.AlltimeseriesareinGtCyr-1excepttheper-capitaemissions(e),whicharein4

tonnesofcarbonperpersonperyear(tCperson-1yr-1).Territorialemissionsareprimarilyfrom5

Bodenetal.(2017)exceptnationaldatafortheUSAandEU28for1990-2014,whicharereported6

bythecountriestotheUNFCCCasdetailedinthetext;consumption-basedemissionsareupdated7

fromPetersetal.(2011a).SeeSect.2.1.1fordetailsofthecalculationsanddatasources.8

9


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1

Figure6.CO2exchangesbetweentheatmosphereandtheterrestrialbiosphereasusedinthe2

globalcarbonbudget(blackwith±1σuncertaintyingreyshading),for(a)CO2emissionsfrom3

land-usechange(ELUC),showingalsoindividuallythetwobookkeepingmodels(twobluelines)and4

theDGVMmodelresults(green)andtheirmulti-modelmean(olive).Thedashedlineidentifies5

thepre-satelliteperiodbeforetheinclusionofpeatlandburning;(b)LandCO2sink(SLAND)with6

individualDGVMs(green);(c)TotallandCO2fluxes(bminusa)withindividualDGVMs(green)and7

theirmulti-modelmean(olive),andatmosphericinversions(CAMSinpurple,JenaCarboScopein8

violet,CTEinsalmon;seedetailsinTable5).In(c)theinversionswerecorrectedforthe9

preindustriallandsinkofCO2fromriverinput,byremovingasinkof0.45GtCyr-1(Jacobsonetal.,10

2007),butnotfortheanthropogeniccontributiontoriverfluxes(seeSect.2.7.2).11

12

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

1

2

3

4

CO

2 (GtC

yr−

1 )

(a) Land−use change emissions

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−2

−1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

CO

2 (GtC

yr−

1 )

(b) Land sink

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−3

−2

−1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Time (yr)

CO

2 (GtC

yr−

1 )

(c) Total land


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1

2

Figure7.Comparisonoftheanthropogenicatmosphere-oceanCO2fluxshowingthebudgetvalues3

ofSOCEAN(black;with±1σuncertaintyingreyshading),individualoceanmodels(blue),andthetwo4

oceanpCO2-basedfluxproducts(Rödenbecketal.(2014)insalmonandLandschützeretal.(2015)5

inpurple;seeTable5).BothpCO2-basedfluxproductswereadjustedforthepreindustrialocean6

sourceofCO2fromriverinputtotheocean,whichisnotpresentintheoceanmodels,byaddinga7

sinkof0.45GtCyr-1(Jacobsonetal.,2007),tomakethemcomparabletoSOCEAN.Thisadjustment8

doesnottakeintoaccounttheanthropogeniccontributiontoriverfluxes(seeSect.2.7.2). 9

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

1

2

3

4

Time (yr)

CO

2 (GtC

yr−

1 )


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1

2

Figure8.CO2fluxesbetweentheatmosphereandthesurface(SOCEAN+SLAND–ELUC)bylatitude3

bandsforthe(a)North(northof30°N),(b)Tropics(30°S-30°N),and(c)South(southof30°S).4

Estimatesfromthecombinationoftheprocessmodelsforthelandandoceansareshown5

(turquoise)with±1σofthemodelensemble(ingrey).Resultsfromthethreeatmospheric6

inversionsarealsoshown(CAMSinpurple,JenaCarboScopeinviolet,CTEinsalmon;references7

andversionnumberinTable5).Whereavailabletheuncertaintyintheinversionsarealsoshown.8

Positivevaluesindicateafluxfromtheatmospheretothelandand/orocean.9

10


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1

2

Figure9.ComparisonofglobalcarbonbudgetcomponentsreleasedannuallybyGCPsince2006.3

CO2emissionsfrom(a)fossilfuelsandindustry(EFF),and(b)land-usechange(ELUC),aswellas4

theirpartitioningamong(c)theatmosphere(GATM),(d)theland(SLAND),and(e)theocean(SOCEAN).5

Seelegendforthecorrespondingyears,andTable3forreferences.Thebudgetyearcorresponds6

totheyearwhenthebudgetwasfirstreleased.AllvaluesareinGtCyr-1.Greyshadingshowsthe7

uncertaintyboundsrepresenting±1σofthecurrentglobalcarbonbudget.8

9

10

11

12

13

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

2

4

6

8

10

12(a) Fossil fuels and industry

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

1

2

3

4

5

6

7(c) Atmospheric growth

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

1

2

3

4

Time (yr)

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(GtC

yr−

1 )

(b) Land−use change

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020−1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

CO

2 par

titio

ning

(GtC

yr−

1 ) (d) Land sink

2006200720082009

2010201120122013

2014201520162017

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

1

2

3

4

Time (yr)

(e) Ocean sink


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TableA1.Fundingsupportingtheproductionofthevariouscomponentsoftheglobalcarbon1budget(seealsoacknowledgements).2Funderandgrantnumber(whererelevant) authorinitialsAustralia,IntegratedMarineObservingSystem(IMOS) BTAustralianNationalEnvironmentScienceProgram(NESP) JGC,VH

ECH2020EuropeanResearchCouncil(ERC)(QUINCY;grantno.647204). SZ

ECH2020ERCSynergygrant(IMBALANCE-P;grantno.ERC-2013-SyG-610028) DZ

ECH2020projectCRESCENDO(grantno.641816) PF,RS

ECFP7projectHELIX(grantno.603864) PF,RAB,SS

EUFP7projectLUC4C(grantno.603542) PF,MK,SS

FrenchInstitutNationaldesSciencesdel’Univers(INSU)andInstitutPaulEmileVictor(IPEV),SorbonneUniversités(UPMC,UnivParis06) NM

GermanfederalMinistryforEducationandResearch(BMBF) GR,AK,SVH

GermanFederalMinistryofTransportandDigitalInfrastructure(BMVI) AK,SVH

GermanResearchFoundation’sEmmyNoetherProgramme(grantno.PO1751/1-1) JEMSN,JPIRD,RIIntegratedCarbonObservationSystem(ICOS) NL

JapanNationalInstituteforEnvironmentalStudies(NIES),MinistryofEnvironment(MOE) SK,YN

NASALCLUCprogramme(grantno.NASANNX14AD94G) AJNetherlandsOrganizationforScientificResearch(NWO)Venigrant(016.Veni.171.095) IvdLL

NewZealandNationalInstituteofWaterandAtmosphericResearch(NIWA)CoreFunding KC

NorwegianResearchCouncil,NorwegianEnvironmentalAgency ISNorwegianResearchCouncil(ICOS245927) BP,MB

NorwegianResearchCouncil(grantno.229771) JS

SouthAfricaCouncilforScientificandIndustrialResearch,DepartmentofScienceandTechnology(DST) PMSM

RIIntegratedCarbonObservationSystem(ICOS) AW,GR,AK,SVH,IS,BP,MB

SwissNationalScienceFoundation(grantno.200020_172476) SLUKBEIS/DefraMetOfficeHadleyCentreClimateProgramme(grantno.GA01101) RABUKNaturalEnvironmentResearchCouncil(SONATA:grantno.NE/P021417/1) CLQ,OA

UKNERC,EUFP7,EUHorizon2020 AW

USADepartmentofEnergy,OfficeofScienceandBERprg.(grantno.DE-SC0000016323) ATJUSANationalOceanographicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)OceanAcidificationProgram(OAP)NA16NOS0120023 CWH

USANationalScienceFoundation(grantno.OPP1543457) DRMUSANationalScienceFoundation(grantno.AGS12-43071) AKJComputingresources GrandÉquipementNationaldeCalculIntensif(allocationx2016016328),France NVMétéo-France/DSIsupercomputingcentre RSNetherlandsOrganizationforScientificResearch(NWO)(SH-312-14) IvdL-L

NorwegianMetacenterforComputationalScience(NOTUR,projectnn2980k)andtheNorwegianStorageInfrastructure(NorStore,projectns2980k)

JS


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UEAHighPerformanceComputingCluster,UK ODA,CLQ 1


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78 TableA2A

ttributionoffCO2 m

easurementsfortheyear2016includedinSO

CATv5(Bakkeretal.,2016)toinform

oceanpCO2 -basedflux

1products.

2

3

Vessel

RegionsNo.ofsam

plesPrincipalinvestigators

Num

berofdatasets

AllureoftheSeas

NorthA

tlantic,TropicalAtlantic

71744Wanninkhof,R.;Pierrot,D

.36

AtlanticCartier

NorthA

tlantic44302

Steinhoff,T.;Körtzinger,A.;Becker,M

.;Wallace,D

.12

AuroraA

ustralisSouthernO

cean43885

Tilbrook,B.2

BenguelaStream

NorthA


137902Schuster,U

.;Watson,A

.J.21

CapBlancheNorthPacific,TropicalPacific

17913Cosca,C.;A

lin,S.;Feely,R.;Herndon,J.

3

CapSanLorenzoNorthA


9126Lefèvre,N

.3

ColibriNorthA


27780Lefèvre,N

.6

EquinoxNorthA



.35

F.G.W

altonSmith

NorthA


43222Millero,F.;W

anninkhof,R.16

Finnmaid

NorthA

tlantic34303

Rehder,G.;G

lockzin,M.

3

G.O.Sars

Arctic,N

orthAtlantic

109125Skjelvan,I.

13

GAKO

A(149W

60N)

NorthPacific

488Cross,J.;M

athis,J.;Monacci,N

.;Musielew

icz,S.;Maenner,S.;O

sborne,J.1

GordonG

unterNorthA



.13

HenryB.Bigelow

NorthA

tlantic61021

Wanninkhof,R.

13

InvestigatorSouthernO

cean,TropicalPacific108721

Tilbrook,B.3

LaurenceM.G

ouldSouthernO

cean26150

Sweeney,C.;Takahashi,T.;N

ewberger,T.;Sutherland,S.C.;M

unro,D.

5

MarionD

ufresneSouthernO

cean3214

Metzl,N

.;LoMonaco,C.

1

New

Century2NorthA

tlantic,NorthPacific,TropicalPacific

25222Nakaoka,S.

15

NukaA

rcticaNorthA

tlantic47392

Becker,M.;O

lsen,A.;O

mar,A

.;Johannessen,T.12

PolarsternArctic,N

orthAtlantic,SouthernO

cean,TropicalAtlantic

164407vanH

euven,S.;Hoppem

a,M.

5


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RogerRevelleIndianO

cean,SouthernOcean,TropicalPacific


.8

RonaldH.Brow

nNorthPacific,TropicalPacific


.8

S.A.A

gulhasIISouthernO

cean27851

Monteiro,P.M

.S.;Joubert,W.R.

SarmientodeG

amboa

NorthA

tlantic,SouthernOcean,TropicalA

tlantic16122

Padin,X.A.

2

SavannahNorthA

tlantic2803

Cai,W.-J.;Reim

er,J.J.1

SEAlaska(56N

134W)

NorthPacific

271Cross,J.;M

athis,J.;Monacci,N

.;Musielew

icz,S.;Maenner,S.;O

sborne,J.1

SkogafossNorthA

tlantic22541

Wanninkhof,R.;Pierrot,D

.4

TangaroaSouthernO

cean118997

Currie,K.7

ThomasG

.Thompson

NorthPacific,TropicalPacific

14656Alin,S.;Cosca,C.;H

erndon,J.;Feely,R.1

TransFuture5NorthPacific,TropicalPacific,SouthernO

cean23087

Nakaoka,S.;N

ojiri,Y.21

UNHGulfChallenger

NorthA

tlantic2984

Hunt,C.W

.3

1

2


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