disruptive demographics: implications for business, workforce development, and consumer markets...

Disruptive Demographics: Implications for Business, Workforce Development, and Consumer Markets October 2013 James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Discussion

what October 2013 CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL

6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises Again The Browning of America Marrying Out is In The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandmas Well and Grandpas Too!

The South Continues To Rise The South Continues To Rise...Again!

SOUTHS SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, 1910-2010 Years U.S. Absolute Population Change Souths Absolute Population Change Souths Share of Change 1910-193030,974,129 8,468,30327% 1930-195028,123,138 9,339,45533% 1950-197051,886,12815,598,27930% 1970-199045,497,94722,650,56350% 1990-201060,035,66529,104,81449%

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, 2000-2010 Region 2010 Population Absolute Population Change, 2000-2010 Percent Population Change, 2000-2010 U.S.309,050,81626,884,9729.5% Northeast55,417,3111,753,9783.3% Midwest66,972,8872,480,9983.0% South114,555,74414,318,92414.3% West72,256,1838,774,85213.8%

SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2000-2010 Region Absolute Population ChangePercent of Total UNITED STATES26,884,972100.0 NORTHEAST1,753,978 6.0 MIDWEST2,480,998 9.0 SOUTH14,318,92453.0 WEST8,774,85232.0

NET MIGRATION TRENDS, 2000-2008 NortheastMidwestSouthWest Total-1,032-2,008+2,287+46 Black-346-71+376 +41 Hispanic-292-109+520-117 Elderly-115+42+97-27 Foreign born-147-3+145+3 = Net Import= Net Export

STATE SHARE OF SOUTHS NET GROWTH, 2000-2010 Region/StateAbsolute ChangeStates Share The South14,318,924100.0% Texas 4,293,741 30.0% Florida 2,818,932 19.7% Georgia 1,501,200 10.5% North Carolina 1,486,170 10.4% Other Southern States 4,218,881 29.4%

Population Change in Florida and Northwest Florida, 2000-2010 Area2010 Population Absolute Population Change 2000-2010 Percent Population Change 2000-2010 Florida 18,801,3102,818,93217.6% Gulf Power Service Area 978,765 94,65510.7% Florida Great Northwest Region 1,366,092 143,60011.7%

GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, 2004-2010 The Region DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet 2004-20074,125,0963,470,431654,665268,619132,382136,237 2007-20103,874,4143,477,899396,525232,501132,201100,300 Florida DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet 2004-2007812,053630,051182,00241,74524,10817,637 2007-2010654,931668,087-13,15633,09532,0941,001

Balance of Population Change Equation Population Change = In-Flows Out- Flows where In-flows = [Births + In-Migrants] & Out-Flows =[Deaths + Out-Migrants]

Typology of Communities Demographic ExperienceDrivers Balanced GrowthBirths exceed deaths and in-migration exceeds out- migration. Natural GrowthOut-migration exceeds in-migration but this population loss is offset by an excess of births over deaths. Migration MagnetsDeaths exceed births but population loss is averted because in-migration exceeds out-migration. DyingDeaths exceed births and out-migration exceeds in- migration, resulting in population loss. Biologically DecliningIn-migration exceeds out-migration but his net migration is not substantial enough to offset an excess of deaths over births Emptying OutBirths exceed deaths but out-migration exceeds in- migration, resulting in net population loss

Types of Communities in Florida Great Northwest Region Type of CommunityNumber Balanced Growth 7 Natural Growth 1 Migration Magnet 1 Emptying Out 2 Dying 4 Biologically Declining 1

Balanced Growth Counties, 2010- 2012 CountyTotal Population Change Natural Change Net Migration Bay3,0511,2291,824 Calhoun 98 7 60 Escambia5,0961,9133,288 Okaloosa9,2612,3926,820 Santa Rosa7,1401,3825,688 Walton2,539 2722,224 Leon8,2823,0885,196

Natural Growth Communities, 2010- 2012 CountyTotal Population Change Natural Change Net Migration Wakulla42 222- 179

Migration Magnet, 2010-2012 CountyTotal Population Change Natural Change Net Migration Franklin137139

Emptying Out Communities, 2010-2012 CountyTotal Population Change Natural Change Net Migration Gadsden-1,218349-1,602 Liberty- 89 15- 109

Biologically Declining, 2010-2012 CountyTotal Population Change Natural Change Net Migration Washington-4-8755

Dying Communities, 2010-2012 CountyTotal Population Change Natural Change Net Migration Gulf-145-81- 83 Holmes-123-73- 50 Jackson-778- 138-617 Jefferson-505-38-404

THE BROWNING OF AMERICA

The Numbers YearAnnual Flow 1920-1961 206,000 1961-1992 561,000 1993-1998 800,654 1999-2004 879,400 2005-20081,137,000 2009-20121,067,000 Refugees, Parolees, Asylees YearAnnual Flow 1961-1993 65,000 1994-1998107,000 1999-2004 85,500 2005-2008 75,000 2009-2012 92,500 Legal Immigrants

The Numbers Contd Illegal Immigrants 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades Three million granted amnesty in 1986 2.7 million illegal immigrants remained after 1986 reforms October 1996: INS estimated there were 5 million illegal immigrants in U.S. Since August 2005: Estimates of illegal population have ranged between 7 million and 15 million Today: An estimated 11.5 million unauthorized immigrants reside in U.S.

NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, 1981-2011 YearAll ClassesExchange VisitorsAcademic & Vocational Students 198111,756,903108,023 (1%) 271,861 (2%) 1985 9,539,880141,213 (1%) 285,496 (3%) 199017,574,055214,644 (1%) 355,207 (2%) 199522,640,540241,364 (1%) 395,480 (2%) 200033,690,082351,743 (1%) 699,953 (2%) 200132,824,088389,435 (1%) 741,921 (2%) 200227,907,139370,176 (1%) 687,506 (2%) 200839,381,928506,138 (1%) 917,373 (2%) 201153,082,286526, 931 (1%)1,702,730 (3%)

U.S. Immigrant Population, 1900-2011

U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2011 Race/EthnicityForeign PopulationShare of Total (%) Total40,381,574100.0 Hispanic18,788,300 46.5 White Alone, not Hispanic 7,608,236 18.8 Black Alone, not Hispanic 3,130,348 7.8 Asian Alone, not Hispanic 9,988,159 24.7 Other Alone, not Hispanic 866,531 2.1 30

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010 Race2010 Population Absolute Change 2000 2010 Percentage Change 2000 - 2010 Total 308,745,53827,323,6329.7% Non-Hispanic 258,267,94412,151,8564.9% White 196,817,5522,264,7781.2% Black 37,685,8483,738,01111.0% AI/AN 2,247,098178,2158.6% Asian Asian 14,465,1244,341,95542.9% NH/PI NH/PI 481,576128,06736.2% 2 or More Races 2 or More Races 5,966,4811,364,33529.6% Hispanic 50,477,59415,171,77643.0%

NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, 2000-2010 Area Absolute Population Change Non-White Share Hispanic Share US27,323,63291.755.5 South14,318,92479.646.4 Texas4,293,74189.265.0 Florida2,818,93284.954.7 Georgia1,501,20681.027.9 NC1,486,17061.228.3

MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2009 RaceTotalMaleFemale United States36.835.438.2 White Alone38.337.039.6 White, Non-Hispanic41.239.942.6 Black Alone31.329.433.3 AI/AN Alone29.529.030.2 Asian Alone 33.632.634.6 NH/PI Alone 29.929.530.3 Two or More Races 19.718.920.5 Hispanic27.4 27.5 October 201333

TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007 Race/EthnicityTotal Fertility Rate Hispanic2.99 Non-Hispanic White1.87 Blacks2.13 Asian2.04 Native American1.86 October 201334 Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010)

RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity199020082011 White66%50%49.6% Blacks17%16%15.0% Hispanics15%26%26.0% Other2%8%9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity20052050 White67%47% Blacks12.8%13% Hispanics14%29% Asian5%9% October 201336 Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

GULF POWER SERVICE AREA POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010 Race 2010 Population Absolute Change 2000 2010 Percentage Change 2000 - 2010 Total 978,76594,65510.7% Non-Hispanic 930,12071,6508.3% White 739,39643,5476.3% Black 135,57914,00711.5% AI/AN 6,916 -257-3.6% Asian Asian 20,236 5,02033.0% NH/PI NH/PI 1,185 39249.4% Some other race Some other race 1,456 19515.5% 2 or More Races 2 or More Races 25,352 8,74652.7% Hispanic 48,64523,00589.7%

FLORIDA GREAT NORTHWEST REGION POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010 Race 2010 Population Absolute Change 2000 2010 Percentage Change 2000 - 2010 Total 1,366,092143,60011.7% Non-Hispanic 1,295,058110,7129.3% White 966,701 60,2346.6% Black 256,591 29,81113.1% AI/AN 8,026 -193-2.3% Asian Asian 28,664 8,71443.7% NH/PI NH/PI 1,336 42346.3% Some other race Some other race 2,055 41024.9% 2 or More Races 2 or More Races 31,685 11,31355.5% Hispanic 71,034 32,88886.2%

Nonwhite and Hispanic Shares of Population in Florida and the Florida Northwest Region AreaAbsolute Population Change 2000-2010 Non-White Share Hispanic Share Florida2,818,93284.954.7 Gulf Power Service Area 94,65554.024.3 Florida Great Northwest Region 143,60058.122.9

Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in Florida, 2007-2011 Demographic Group All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic Native Born Foreign Born Source: www.census.gov www.census.gov *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months. Median Age 41.9 48.2 32.4 37.2 37.0 32.6 29.6 21.5 35.0 40.1 46.2 Fertility/1000 women* 51 44 60 49 58 109 67 60 57 48 60

is In Marrying Out October 201341

INTERMARRIAGE TREND, 1980-2008 % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity October 201342

INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008 October 201343

THE SILVER TSUNAMI

Key Drivers Changes in Longevity Declining Fertility Aging of Boomer Cohort

LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH YEARAGE 1900 47.3 1930 59.7 1960 69.7 1997 76.5 2007 77.9 2010 78.3 2030101.0

Centenarians in the U.S. YearNumber 1950 2,300 2010 79,000 2050601,000

COMPLETED FERTILITY FOR WOMEN 40 - 44 YEARS OLD Year Percent Childless Avg. Number of Children Percent Higher Order Births* 2006201.928 1976103.159 *Three or more Children

TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007 Race/EthnicityTotal Fertility Rate Hispanic3.0 Non-Hispanic White1.9 Blacks2.1 Asian2.0 Native American1.9

THE GREYING OF AMERICA

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2009 Age2009 Absolute Change 2000 - 2009 Percentage Change 2000 - 2009

disruptive demographics: implications for business, workforce development, and consumer markets...

Documents