dividend discount models dynamic chart

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Page 1: Dividend Discount Models   Dynamic Chart

Dynamic Chart

Inputs

Inflation Rate 3.0% 6

Earnings Retention Rate 50.0% 5

OutputsReal Discount Rate (Real k) 9.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0%Intrinsic Value / Share $176 $235 $202 $176 $156 $139 $125

Nominal Discount Rate (k) 12.3%Stage 1: Explicit Forecast

Historical Data Horizon (ROI > k)Period -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4Inflation Rate 2.8% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%Real Return on Investment (Real ROI) 22.3% 20.7% 19.0% 17.0% 15.0% 13.0%Nominal Return on Investment (ROI) 25.7% 24.4% 22.6% 20.5% 18.4% 16.4%Real Growth Rate in Dividend (Real g) 11.2% 10.4% 9.5% 8.5% 7.5% 6.5%Nominal Growth Rate in Dividend (g) 14.5% 13.7% 12.8% 11.8% 10.7% 9.7%Nominal Dividend / Share $5.10 $5.84 $6.64 $7.49 $8.37 $9.27 $10.17 Continuation Value / ShareSum of Future Div. & Cont. Value/Shr $7.49 $8.37 $9.27 $10.17 PV of Future Div. & Cont. Value / Shr $6.67 $6.64 $6.55 $6.40 Intrinsic Value / Share $176.26

DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODELS

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0

%10

.5%

11.0

%11

.5%

12.0

%

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

Dynamic Chart of Two Stage Dividend Discount Model

Real Discount Rate

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Page 2: Dividend Discount Models   Dynamic Chart

Stage 2:Infinite

Stage 1: Explicit Forecast HorizonHorizon (ROI > k) (ROI = k)

5 63.0% 3.0%

11.0% 9.0%14.3% 12.3%

5.5% 4.5%8.7% 7.6%

$11.05 $11.89$256.51$267.56$150.00

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0

%10

.5%

11.0

%11

.5%

12.0

%

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

Dynamic Chart of Two Stage Dividend Discount Model

Real Discount Rate

Ins

trin

sic

V

alu

e /

Sh

r