diwali crackers 2019 · 2019. 10. 10. · may this diwali shower the light of financial growth...

MAY THIS DIWALI SHOWER THE LIGHT OF FINANCIAL GROWTH & WISDOM


D CIWALI RACKERS

201920192019

SAMVAT2076

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2 ICICI Bank Banks ICICIBANK 532174 423.70 512 21%

5 Tata Global Plantation & Plantation Products TATAGLOBAL 500800 266.30 325 22%

3 Larsen & Toubro Infrastructure Dev. LT 500510 1426.65 1680 18%

4 Marico FMCG MARICO 531642 384.65 436 13%

S.No. Co_Name Sector NSE BSE Price* Target Upside Symbol Code Potential

1 Infosys IT - Software INFY 500209 782.90 884 13%

7 Gujarat Gas Gas Distribution GUJGASLTD 539336 169.30 210 24%

6 Torrent Power Power TORNTPOWER 532779 281.50 348 24%

*Closing as on 10th October 2019

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ACTUAL ESTIMATES

FY Mar-18 FY Mar-19 FY Mar-20

INFOSYS LIMITED CMP:782.90 Upside:13%Target Price:884

P/E Chart

• The company increased FY 20 revenue growth guidance range

to 8.5%-10% in constant currency from 7.5% to 9%. Also its first

quarter results and continued focus on operational

efficiencies gives confidence on revenue and margin guidance

for the year. It maintained FY 20 operating margin guidance

range of 21%-23%.

• Management of the company expects operating margins for

the remaining year to improve on Q1 subject to a stable

environment. This margin improvement will be driven by

continuous deployment of operational efficiencies like

utilization, rationalizing deployment, automation, and other

overheard efficiency measures.

INVESTMENT RATIONALE

• Large deal win momentum continued in Q1. It won 13 large

deals with a TCV of $2.7bn including the recently closed

Stater deal with ABN AMRO. Three deals each in Financial 6

Services and Retail verticals, two deal each in Communication

and Energy Utilities Resources & Services and Manufacturing

verticals, while one deal was in Life Sciences. Geography

wise, eight were from Americas, four were from Europe and

one from Rest of the World. The share of new deals in overall

large deal TCV was about 55%. Client metrics remained

strong, number of 100 mn clients increased by 2 to 27.

Infosys is a leading provider of consulting, technology,

outsourcing and next-generation digital services, enabling

clients to execute strategies for their digital transformation.

• Digital continues to drive the growth of the company with 39%

YoY growth and constituting 35.7% of revenues (vs. 32.2% of

revenues for TCS). Further, the company is seeing traction in

areas of cloud, IoT, data analytics and customer experience,

will be key growth drivers.

PROFILEVALUE PARAMETERS

P/B Ratio (times) 5.15

Face Value (Rs.) 5.00

M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 334241.18

52 Week High/Low 847.40/600.65

Dividend Yield (%) 2.80

Stock Exchange BSE

P/E Ratio (times) 21.51

EPS (Rs.) 36.40

NET INCOME 16029.00 15404.00 16601.69

EBITDA 19011.00 20170.00 22529.17

EBIT 17148.00 18159.00 19895.79

REVENUE 70522.00 82675.00 90820.70

EPS 35.50 35.38 38.45

BVPS 149.36 149.79 144.20

RoE 23.94% 23.72% 26.14%

RISK

• Margin erosion due to escalated offshore staff costs

• Trimming of IT costs by Clients

The management of the company remains reasonably

optimistic about growth prospects due to increase in win rate

and increase in large deal pipeline. These deals will help

incentivize its multi-gate servicing capabilities through

digital platforms and enhance presence in Europe. Growth in

retail is driven by large deal wins, and differentiation on

digital deals. Strong order wins coupled with healthy order

pipeline would give on visibility of revenue growth

momentum. Thus it is expected that the stock will see a price

target of Rs. 884 in 8-10 months time frame on an expected

PE multiple of 23 times and FY20E EPS of Rs. 38.45.

VALUATION

Foreign

Institutions

Non PromoterCorporate Holding

Promoters

Public & Others

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)

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ACTUAL ESTIMATES


ICICI BANK LIMITED

P/B Chart• The bank had indicated that credit cost in FY2020 is expected

to reduce significantly compared to FY2019 and be in the

range of 1.2% to 1.3% of average advances with variance in

credit costs across quarters based on the timing of ageing

based provisions on existing NPAs and the resolution of NPAs.

The bank expects the credit costs to remain within tolerance

levels. Provisions as a percentage of average advances

reduced from 3.67% in FY2019 to 2.40% in Q1FY2020.

• Further, the retail loan book continued to expand at strong

pace of 22% yoy to Rs 363596 crore at end June 2019. With the

healthy growth, the share of retail book in the overall advance

book increased to 61.4% at end June 2019 from 60.2% end

March 2019 and 57.50% end June 2018

• The bank has exhibited improvement in margins and asset

quality in Q1FY2020. The global NIM of the bank stood at 3.61%

in Q1FY2020, while the bank has sharply reduced net NPA ratio

below 2% level end June 2019. The net interest income of the

bank has surged 27%, while the core fee income of the bank

has also increased at healthy pace of 10% in Q1FY2020.

ICICI Bank is a leading private sector bank in India. The Bank’s

consolidated total assets stood at Rs.12.50 trillion at June 30,

2019. ICICI Bank currently has a network of 4,882 branches

and 15,101 ATMs across India.

• The core operating profit of the bank has increased 21.2% to Rs

6110 crore in Q1FY2020. The management of the bank has

continued to see healthy growth in funding.

PROFILE


• Business of the bank increased at accelerated pace of 18% yoy to

Rs 1253147 crore at end June 2019, supported by loans growth

improving by 15% at Rs 592415 crore. Meanwhile, the deposits

growth galloped to 21% at Rs 660732 crore at end June 2019.

Stock Exchange BSE


M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 273701.13


EPS (Rs.) 10.47

52 Week High/Low 458.45/298.50



• Regulatory Provisioning on assets and Corporate Governance issue

• Unidentified Asset Slippages. (Non- Identified NPA’s).

RISK

The bank is focusing on growing the core operating profit in a

risk calibrated manner instead of loan growth. The bank aims

to improve share of profitable market opportunities by

making delivery to the customer more seamless and

frictionless through digitization and process improvements.

Business performance of the bank such as domestic loan

growth, overall corporate advances, retail loan growth, CASA

ratio are continuously improving. Thus, it is expected that

the stock will see a price target of Rs.512 in 8 to 10 months

time frame on an expected P/Bvx of 2.8x and FY20 BVPS(Book

Value Per Share) of Rs.181.90.

VALUATION

Foreign

Institutions


Public & Others

PRE-TAX PROFIT 7434.55 3776.76 18652.95

NET INCOME 6777.42 3363.30 13003.96

NET INT INC 23025.84 27015.00 32117.78

BVPS 163.57 168.10 182.90

EBIT 24741.63 23437.90 25402.56

RoE 6.61% 3.20% 11.85%

EPS 10.46 5.17 20.67

VALUE PARAMETERS


CMP:423.70 Upside:21%Target Price:512

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ACTUAL ESTIMATES


LARSEN & TOUBRO

P/E Chart

• L&T’s management guided that it has well-articulated plans in

different verticals, including plans to leverage its experience

to help clients in their automation process. It is confident of

further expanding RoE, as outlined in the current strategic

plan and that public capex remained robust in rail, metro,

PROFILE

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is a technology, engineering,

construction, manufacturing and financial services company.

L&T has several levers across business/geographic segments,

which provide a robust foundation to capitalise on the next leg

of the investment cycle.

• L&T is a good proxy for domestic capex and the company has a

credible strategy to improve both growth and return on equity.

• Government announced significant push in infra and sub-

sectors including roads, railways, port, airports, and urban

infrastructure. The capex outlook for these segments remain

strong for the next 3-5 years. With 16% market share in the last

five years, L&T has been able to maintain leadership position

in the infra space. Apart from infra, Hydrocarbon order

inflows in FY19 has been strong and therefore expected to

show major contribution in FY20 and FY21.


• Consolidated Order Book of the group stood at Rs 294014 crore as

at June 30, 2019, with international Order Book constituting 21%

of the total Order Book. The Company successfully won new

orders worth Rs 38700 crore at the group level during the

quarter ended June 30, 2019 registering a growth of 11%.

International orders during the year at Rs 9005 crore constituted

23% of the total order inflow. Order wins in Infrastructure and

Power segments were the major contributors to the order inflow

during the quarter. While orders from the central and state

governments were affected during the general elections, strong

PSU and private sector orders enabled growth for the quarter.

EPS (Rs.) 64.18



M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 200196.88


52 Week High/Low 1606.70/1183.40


Stock Exchange BSE VALUATION

The Company looks forward to a period of increased

investment momentum and continued growth. Initiatives

towards improved productivity, cost efficiencies derived

from leveraging digital technology, capacity utilization and

capability enhancement are expected to help the Company

maximize its shareholder returns (RoE) on a sustainable basis.

Thus it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.

1680 in 8-10 months time frame on an one year average PE

multiple of 22.65 times and FY20E EPS of Rs. 74.17.

power T&D, and hydrocarbons, although private sector capex

still remained tentative.

• Lower capex owing to slowdown in the economy

• Lower traction from International business owing to global

trade wars

RISK

Foreign

Institutions


Public & Others

RoE 13.70% 14.59% 15.32%

REVENUE 119683.16 141007.09 160133.59

BVPS 397.17 444.66 500.50

EBITDA 13571.38 16324.68 19219.16

EBIT 11642.65 14240.68 16844.37

NET INCOME 7246.86 8610.38 10422.16

EPS 51.63 61.30 74.17

VALUE PARAMETERS



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ACTUAL ESTIMATES


P/E Chart

• The company aims to build Healthy Foods, Premium Hair

Nourishment and Male Grooming into growth engines of the

future and expects to deliver value growth at 20% plus CAGR

over the medium term in these portfolios.


• In the International business, the company expects to clock

organic broad-based double-digit constant currency growth

over the medium term. Operating margin is expected to be

maintained at 18-19%.

Marico is a consumer products company operating in the

beauty and wellness space. The company's principal products

include edible oils and value added hair oils.

• The company will continue to drive sustained profitable volume-

led growth over the medium term, through its focus on

strengthening the franchise in the core categories and driving

the new engines of growth towards gaining critical mass.

PROFILE

• Over the medium term, the company retains the target of 8-

10% volume growth and healthy market share gains in the

India business.

• The Company delivered a decent performance in a challenging

demand environment for the industry at large. As the

management hope for a recovery in the overall sentiment

towards the second half of the year, it will continue to push for

volume driven growth and market share gains.

• With sluggishness in wholesale persisting, rural stayed ahead

of urban in the traditional channel. Modern Trade and E-

Commerce continued to headline growth, while CSD had a

normal quarter. Modern Trade grew by 30%. Modern Trade and

E-commerce contributes 13% and 4% of the India business

respectively. E-Commerce almost doubled.

Stock Exchange BSE



M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 49656.18

EPS (Rs.) 9.21



52 Week High/Low 403.70/286.25

• Inflationary trend in commodity prices

• In the International business, the company expects to clock

organic broad-based double-digit constant currency growth

over the medium term.

VALUATION

The company will continue to drive sustained profitable

volume-led growth over the medium term, through its focus

on strengthening the franchise in the core categories and

driving the new engines of growth towards gaining critical

mass. Over the medium term, the company retains the target

of 8-10% volume growth and healthy market share gains in the

India business. Thus it is expected that the stock will see a

price target of Rs. 436 in 8-10 months time frame on 2 year

average PE multiple of 49.54 times and FY20E EPS of Rs. 8.81.

• Currency Fluctuation

RISK

BVPS 19.73 23.25 26.06

NET INCOME 814.49 1118.00 1132.40

REVENUE 6417.72 7334.00 8010.73

EPS 6.32 8.67 8.81

EBIT 1048.68 1185.00 1441.53

EBITDA 1137.76 1281.00 1561.87

RoE 33.46% 40.35% 35.64%

Foreign

Institutions


Promoters

Public & Others

MARICO LIMITED

VALUE PARAMETERS



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ACTUAL ESTIMATES


P/E Chart

PROFILE

Tata Global Beverages is a beverage and branded food business

company engaged in trading, production and distribution of

tea, coffee and water. It commands 20% market share in tea

segment in India & expects to continue to grow above industry

led by new launches. It would benefit from a shift from

unorganized to organized sales on the back of premiumisation

and strong marketing campaigns.

• India business witnessed volume growth of 8% aided by double

digit growth in Tata Tea Premium and Agni. Recently its

launched Spice Mix revenues surged 50%+ YoY. Value growth in

Q1FY20 was 7% as premium brands like Chakra witnessed

marginal de-growth due to a market slowdown in Tamil Nadu

due to acute water crisis whereas economy brands such as

Agni and Elaichi posted robust growth.

• Starbucks store count was at 151 stores (5 new store additions

in Q1FY20). Topline saw strong growth of ~23% in Q1FY20. The

management highlighted that same- store sales growth (SSG)

for Starbucks has been robust.


• Consolidated sales increased 5.2% YoY to Rs. 1,897.1 crore,

mainly driven by 26% growth in the non-branded business. The

tea business reported moderate growth of 4% whereas the

coffee business declined 3%. Operating margins witnessed a

slight improvement of 16 bps to 14%. The company also

entered the Ready To Drink and cold beverage segments and is

garnering a positive response. In India, the trend suggests a

slow & steady shift towards green tea.

• Recently it has announced of acquiring branded food

businesses from Tata Chemicals Ltd in an all-stock transaction

that is aimed at creating a consumer business company with

revenues of Rs. 9100 crores. The management expects to


52 Week High/Low 287.60/177.50

M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 16806.98



EPS (Rs.) 6.89

Stock Exchange BSE


VALUATION

The management of the company has clearly highlighted its

intention to be a broader FMCG company in India. With

recently announced merger with Tata Chemicals, acquisition

of branded tea business of Dhunseri tea and the JV between

the PepsiCo India, it is all set to scale up its network and

business to capture opportunities in long term. Thus it is

expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs. 325 in 8

to 10 months time frame on a current P/Ex of 38.65 times

FY20E EPS of 8.41.

• Consumption Slowdown

• Rise in Minimum Procurement Prices of tea at auction

complete the merger of consumer business in latter part of

this year. Also, it has acquired branded tea business of

Dhunseri Tea and Industries.

RISK

EPS 8.18 7.00 8.41

NET INCOME 516.69 441.48 523.34

RoE 7.77% 6.15% 7.06%

EBIT 722.87 663.34 783.31

EBITDA 838.91 785.91 942.84

REVENUE 6815.35 7251.50 7784.07

BVPS 111.42 116.17 119.85

Foreign

Institutions


Promoters

Public & Others

TATA GLOBAL BEVERAGES LTD

VALUE PARAMETERS


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SAMVAT2076CMP:266.30 Upside:22%Target Price:325

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ACTUAL ESTIMATES


P/E Chart

• The consolidated debt to equity ratio as at the end of FY 2018-

19 was 1.14 (FY 2017-18 – 1.24).


• The Company further strengthened its leadership position in

Distribution business and has been a) awarded the

Distribution license for Dholera SIR Area in Gujarat and b)

appointed the Distribution Franchisee by MSEDCL for the Shil,

Mumbra and Kalwa areas in Thane District in Maharashtra.

• The Company has an aggregate installed generation capacity

of 3,703 MW comprising of 2,730 MW of gas-based capacity,

611 MW of renewable capacity and 362 MW of coal-based

capacity. It has an additional 841 MW of renewable projects

under construction and on completion of the said projects;

the aggregate renewable capacity would be 1,452 MW and the

aggregate total capacity would be over 4,540 MW.

• During the quarter the regulator approved a long term power

procurement arrangement for 278 MW between the

Company's Licensed Distribution Business and UNOSUGEN

Power Plant (capacity of 382.5 MW). The approval, for the

balance life of the plant of 19 years, will enable steady base

load operations for UNOSUGEN plant, resulting in recovery of

project loan interest and depreciation thereon.

Torrent Power is one of the leading companies in the power

sector, it is an integrated power utility and is one of the

largest private sector players in India, having interests in

power generation, transmission, distribution and

manufacturing and supply of power cables.

• The Company distributes nearly 16.68 billion units to over 3.32

million customers in the cities of Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar,

Surat and Dahej SEZ in Gujarat, Bhiwandi in Maharashtra and

Agra in Uttar Pradesh.

PROFILE

• Consolidated sales of Torrent Power were up by 6% to Rs 3736.13

crore and Profit saw a growth of 22% to Rs. 276.59 crore for the

quarter ended June 2019 driven by Increase in contribution from

merchant power sales during the quarter; Higher profits from

Renewables business; Improved performance of licensed and

Stock Exchange BSE

52 Week High/Low 313.80/217.30


EPS (Rs.) 19.73

M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 13529.36




• Risk of regulatory interventions

The company is reducing its debt equity ratio with a focus on

improvement of efficiency. Moreover, improvement in T&D,

focus on green power project and commissioning of

renewable power plants would give good strength to the

company. Government’s policy push like emphasis on clean

coal technologies, replacing old plants with new super

critical plants, policy on automatic transfer of coal linkage,

stricter environmental norms and emphasis on digitalization

will go a long way in reenergizing the coal based power

generation sector. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see

a price target of Rs.348 in 8 to 10 months time frame on 3 year

average P/E of 15.66x and FY20EPS of Rs.22.20.

RISK

franchised distribution businesses on back of reduction in T&D

losses, higher regulated ROE in licensed distribution business &

favorable resolution of a regulatory dispute.

• Macro-economic risks such as growth slowdown & uncertainty

in demand

VALUATION

EPS 19.61 18.70 22.20

BVPS 160.62 187.09 213.76

NET INCOME 942.31 898.94 1067.20

EBIT 1985.63 1972.95 2245.70

EBITDA 3117.13 3199.48 3523.47

REVENUE 11512.09 13150.97 14681.55

RoE 12.90% 10.77% 10.79%

Foreign

Institutions


Promoters

Public & Others

TORRENT POWER LIMITED

VALUE PARAMETERS



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ACTUAL ESTIMATES


P/B Chart

52 Week High/Low 195.00/116.00


M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 11654.44

Stock Exchange BSE




EPS (Rs.) 6.25

EBIT 623.24 696.63 1199.91

NET INCOME 292.44 436.32 734.93

BVPS 27.11 32.03 40.90

RoE 16.57% 21.43% 29.10%

REVENUE 6174.33 7962.48 10641.30

EBITDA 895.06 984.64 1492.08

EPS 4.25 6.34 10.81

Foreign

Institutions


Promoters

Public & Others

• The company has around 23,200 kms of gas pipeline network.

It has around 344 CNG stations and distributes approximately

8.5 mmscmd of natural gas to about 13,55,000 households,

approximately 2 lakh CNG vehicles (serving per day) and to

over 3540 industrial customers.

PROFILE

• Government of Gujarat has also initiated a CNG Sahbhagi

Scheme and also pushing for this market in other way and have

eased land requirement from 1000 square meter to about 500-

550 square meter and permission process has been fastened in

Gujarat now. So ecosystem around the company has been

improved due to that effort and in last budget, Gujarat

government allocated 1,000 crore for CNG buses. Therefore,

all these will help it to improve its CNG volumes and that

needs to push more CNG stations in time to come.

Gujarat Gas Limited (GGL), is largest City Gas Distribution

player with its presence spread across 23 Districts in the State

of Gujarat, Union Territory of Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Thane

Geographical Area (GA) (excluding already authorised areas)

which includes Palghar District of Maharashtra. In 10th CGD

bidding round announced by PNGRB the company has won 6

GAs comprising of 17 cities in the state of Punjab, Haryana,

Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, making GGL a pan India

Company.

• Management of the company is aiming at setting up more than

63 CNG stations in financial year 2020, for the target to

increase volume of 9-9.5 mmscmd in FY20.

• The debt stands at Rs 1,800 crore and the management of the

company is looking at EBITDA margin of around 13 Percent in

FY20.


The company has steady revenue growth momentum and

sustainable margins. It shall continue to focus on growing the

penetration in the current operating areas by increasing the

PNG connections and additional CNG stations while tapping

the untapped potential by expeditious rollout of distribution

network in the newly acquired geographic areas as well. With

this focused endeavour GGL shall continue its efforts in

providing clean fuel solutions across all operational area to

augment an energetic top-line and bottom-line in coming

years. Thus it is expected that the stock will see a price target

of Rs. 210 in 8-10 months time frame on an one year average

PBV multiple of 5.14times and FY20E BVPS of Rs. 40.90.

VALUATION

• Fluctuation in commodity prices

• Regulatory changes

RISK

GUJARAT GAS LIMITED

VALUE PARAMETERS



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E-mail: [email protected] Research also available on Reuters

SMC Research Desk

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diwali crackers 2019 · 2019. 10. 10. · may this diwali shower the light of financial growth...

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